Opinion Poll by YouGov, 13–16 June 2025
Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information
Voting Intentions
Confidence Intervals
| Party | Last Result | Poll Result | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alternative für Deutschland (ESN) | 0.0% | 23.0% | 21.8–24.3% | 21.5–24.6% | 21.2–25.0% | 20.6–25.6% |
| Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands (EPP) | 0.0% | 22.1% | 20.9–23.4% | 20.6–23.7% | 20.3–24.1% | 19.8–24.7% |
| Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands (S&D) | 0.0% | 14.0% | 13.0–15.1% | 12.8–15.4% | 12.5–15.7% | 12.1–16.2% |
| Bündnis 90/Die Grünen (Greens/EFA) | 0.0% | 12.0% | 11.1–13.0% | 10.8–13.3% | 10.6–13.5% | 10.2–14.0% |
| Die Linke (GUE/NGL) | 0.0% | 8.0% | 7.3–8.9% | 7.0–9.1% | 6.9–9.3% | 6.5–9.7% |
| Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern (EPP) | 0.0% | 5.9% | 5.3–6.7% | 5.1–6.9% | 4.9–7.1% | 4.6–7.4% |
| Bündnis Sahra Wagenknecht (NI) | 0.0% | 5.0% | 4.4–5.7% | 4.3–5.9% | 4.1–6.1% | 3.9–6.4% |
| Freie Demokratische Partei (RE) | 0.0% | 3.0% | 2.5–3.6% | 2.4–3.7% | 2.3–3.9% | 2.1–4.1% |
| Freie Wähler (RE) | 0.0% | 2.4% | 2.0–2.9% | 1.8–3.0% | 1.8–3.1% | 1.6–3.4% |
| Partei Mensch Umwelt Tierschutz (GUE/NGL) | 0.0% | 1.5% | 1.2–1.9% | 1.1–2.0% | 1.0–2.1% | 0.9–2.3% |
| Volt Europa (Greens/EFA) | 0.0% | 1.1% | 0.8–1.5% | 0.8–1.6% | 0.7–1.7% | 0.6–1.9% |
| Die PARTEI (NI) | 0.0% | 0.7% | 0.5–1.1% | 0.5–1.1% | 0.4–1.2% | 0.4–1.4% |
| Basisdemokratische Partei Deutschland (*) | 0.0% | 0.3% | 0.2–0.5% | 0.1–0.5% | 0.1–0.6% | 0.1–0.7% |
Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.
Seats
Confidence Intervals
| Party | Last Result | Median | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alternative für Deutschland (ESN) | 0 | 22 | 21–22 | 21–23 | 20–23 | 20–24 |
| Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands (EPP) | 0 | 21 | 20–22 | 20–23 | 20–23 | 19–24 |
| Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands (S&D) | 0 | 14 | 13–14 | 13–14 | 12–15 | 12–15 |
| Bündnis 90/Die Grünen (Greens/EFA) | 0 | 11 | 11–12 | 11–12 | 10–12 | 10–13 |
| Die Linke (GUE/NGL) | 0 | 8 | 7–8 | 7–8 | 7–8 | 6–9 |
| Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern (EPP) | 0 | 6 | 6 | 5–6 | 5–6 | 5–7 |
| Bündnis Sahra Wagenknecht (NI) | 0 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 4–5 | 4–6 |
| Freie Demokratische Partei (RE) | 0 | 3 | 3 | 2–3 | 2–4 | 2–4 |
| Freie Wähler (RE) | 0 | 2 | 2 | 2–3 | 2–3 | 2–3 |
| Partei Mensch Umwelt Tierschutz (GUE/NGL) | 0 | 1 | 1–2 | 1–2 | 1–2 | 1–2 |
| Volt Europa (Greens/EFA) | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1–2 | 1–2 |
| Die PARTEI (NI) | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0–1 |
| Basisdemokratische Partei Deutschland (*) | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0–1 | 0–1 |
Alternative für Deutschland (ESN)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Alternative für Deutschland (ESN) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 100% | |
| 2 | 0% | 100% | |
| 3 | 0% | 100% | |
| 4 | 0% | 100% | |
| 5 | 0% | 100% | |
| 6 | 0% | 100% | |
| 7 | 0% | 100% | |
| 8 | 0% | 100% | |
| 9 | 0% | 100% | |
| 10 | 0% | 100% | |
| 11 | 0% | 100% | |
| 12 | 0% | 100% | |
| 13 | 0% | 100% | |
| 14 | 0% | 100% | |
| 15 | 0% | 100% | |
| 16 | 0% | 100% | |
| 17 | 0% | 100% | |
| 18 | 0% | 100% | |
| 19 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 20 | 3% | 99.9% | |
| 21 | 15% | 97% | |
| 22 | 77% | 82% | Median |
| 23 | 3% | 5% | |
| 24 | 2% | 2% | |
| 25 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 26 | 0% | 0% |
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands (EPP)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands (EPP) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 100% | |
| 2 | 0% | 100% | |
| 3 | 0% | 100% | |
| 4 | 0% | 100% | |
| 5 | 0% | 100% | |
| 6 | 0% | 100% | |
| 7 | 0% | 100% | |
| 8 | 0% | 100% | |
| 9 | 0% | 100% | |
| 10 | 0% | 100% | |
| 11 | 0% | 100% | |
| 12 | 0% | 100% | |
| 13 | 0% | 100% | |
| 14 | 0% | 100% | |
| 15 | 0% | 100% | |
| 16 | 0% | 100% | |
| 17 | 0% | 100% | |
| 18 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 19 | 1.4% | 99.9% | |
| 20 | 9% | 98.6% | |
| 21 | 77% | 90% | Median |
| 22 | 4% | 13% | |
| 23 | 8% | 9% | |
| 24 | 0.9% | 0.9% | |
| 25 | 0% | 0% |
Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands (S&D)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands (S&D) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 100% | |
| 2 | 0% | 100% | |
| 3 | 0% | 100% | |
| 4 | 0% | 100% | |
| 5 | 0% | 100% | |
| 6 | 0% | 100% | |
| 7 | 0% | 100% | |
| 8 | 0% | 100% | |
| 9 | 0% | 100% | |
| 10 | 0% | 100% | |
| 11 | 0.5% | 100% | |
| 12 | 3% | 99.5% | |
| 13 | 10% | 97% | |
| 14 | 84% | 87% | Median |
| 15 | 3% | 3% | |
| 16 | 0.3% | 0.3% | |
| 17 | 0% | 0% |
Bündnis 90/Die Grünen (Greens/EFA)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Bündnis 90/Die Grünen (Greens/EFA) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 100% | |
| 2 | 0% | 100% | |
| 3 | 0% | 100% | |
| 4 | 0% | 100% | |
| 5 | 0% | 100% | |
| 6 | 0% | 100% | |
| 7 | 0% | 100% | |
| 8 | 0% | 100% | |
| 9 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 10 | 3% | 99.9% | |
| 11 | 86% | 97% | Median |
| 12 | 9% | 11% | |
| 13 | 2% | 2% | |
| 14 | 0.2% | 0.2% | |
| 15 | 0% | 0% |
Die Linke (GUE/NGL)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Die Linke (GUE/NGL) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 100% | |
| 2 | 0% | 100% | |
| 3 | 0% | 100% | |
| 4 | 0% | 100% | |
| 5 | 0% | 100% | |
| 6 | 0.9% | 100% | |
| 7 | 11% | 99.1% | |
| 8 | 86% | 88% | Median |
| 9 | 2% | 2% | |
| 10 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 11 | 0% | 0% |
Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern (EPP)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern (EPP) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 100% | |
| 2 | 0% | 100% | |
| 3 | 0% | 100% | |
| 4 | 0.3% | 100% | |
| 5 | 7% | 99.7% | |
| 6 | 91% | 92% | Median |
| 7 | 1.2% | 1.2% | |
| 8 | 0% | 0% |
Bündnis Sahra Wagenknecht (NI)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Bündnis Sahra Wagenknecht (NI) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 100% | |
| 2 | 0% | 100% | |
| 3 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 4 | 4% | 99.9% | |
| 5 | 93% | 95% | Median |
| 6 | 2% | 2% | |
| 7 | 0% | 0% |
Freie Demokratische Partei (RE)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Freie Demokratische Partei (RE) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 100% | |
| 2 | 8% | 100% | |
| 3 | 89% | 92% | Median |
| 4 | 3% | 3% | |
| 5 | 0% | 0% |
Freie Wähler (RE)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Freie Wähler (RE) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0.3% | 100% | |
| 2 | 94% | 99.7% | Median |
| 3 | 5% | 6% | |
| 4 | 0% | 0% |
Partei Mensch Umwelt Tierschutz (GUE/NGL)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Partei Mensch Umwelt Tierschutz (GUE/NGL) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 84% | 100% | Median |
| 2 | 16% | 16% | |
| 3 | 0% | 0% |
Volt Europa (Greens/EFA)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Volt Europa (Greens/EFA) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0.1% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 95% | 99.9% | Median |
| 2 | 5% | 5% | |
| 3 | 0% | 0% |
Die PARTEI (NI)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Die PARTEI (NI) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 1.1% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 98.8% | 98.9% | Median |
| 2 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 3 | 0% | 0% |
Basisdemokratische Partei Deutschland (*)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Basisdemokratische Partei Deutschland (*) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 96% | 100% | Last Result, Median |
| 1 | 4% | 4% | |
| 2 | 0% | 0% |
Coalitions
Confidence Intervals
| Coalition | Last Result | Median | Majority? | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alternative für Deutschland (ESN) | 0 | 22 | 0% | 21–22 | 21–23 | 20–23 | 20–24 |
| Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands (S&D) | 0 | 14 | 0% | 13–14 | 13–14 | 12–15 | 12–15 |
| Bündnis Sahra Wagenknecht (NI) – Die PARTEI (NI) | 0 | 6 | 0% | 6 | 5–6 | 5–6 | 5–7 |
| Freie Demokratische Partei (RE) – Freie Wähler (RE) | 0 | 5 | 0% | 5 | 4–6 | 4–6 | 4–7 |
Alternative für Deutschland (ESN)
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 100% | |
| 2 | 0% | 100% | |
| 3 | 0% | 100% | |
| 4 | 0% | 100% | |
| 5 | 0% | 100% | |
| 6 | 0% | 100% | |
| 7 | 0% | 100% | |
| 8 | 0% | 100% | |
| 9 | 0% | 100% | |
| 10 | 0% | 100% | |
| 11 | 0% | 100% | |
| 12 | 0% | 100% | |
| 13 | 0% | 100% | |
| 14 | 0% | 100% | |
| 15 | 0% | 100% | |
| 16 | 0% | 100% | |
| 17 | 0% | 100% | |
| 18 | 0% | 100% | |
| 19 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 20 | 3% | 99.9% | |
| 21 | 15% | 97% | |
| 22 | 77% | 82% | Median |
| 23 | 3% | 5% | |
| 24 | 2% | 2% | |
| 25 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 26 | 0% | 0% |
Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands (S&D)
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 100% | |
| 2 | 0% | 100% | |
| 3 | 0% | 100% | |
| 4 | 0% | 100% | |
| 5 | 0% | 100% | |
| 6 | 0% | 100% | |
| 7 | 0% | 100% | |
| 8 | 0% | 100% | |
| 9 | 0% | 100% | |
| 10 | 0% | 100% | |
| 11 | 0.5% | 100% | |
| 12 | 3% | 99.5% | |
| 13 | 10% | 97% | |
| 14 | 84% | 87% | Median |
| 15 | 3% | 3% | |
| 16 | 0.3% | 0.3% | |
| 17 | 0% | 0% |
Bündnis Sahra Wagenknecht (NI) – Die PARTEI (NI)
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 100% | |
| 2 | 0% | 100% | |
| 3 | 0% | 100% | |
| 4 | 0.4% | 100% | |
| 5 | 5% | 99.6% | |
| 6 | 92% | 95% | Median |
| 7 | 2% | 2% | |
| 8 | 0% | 0% |
Freie Demokratische Partei (RE) – Freie Wähler (RE)
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 100% | |
| 2 | 0% | 100% | |
| 3 | 0% | 100% | |
| 4 | 7% | 100% | |
| 5 | 86% | 93% | Median |
| 6 | 6% | 7% | |
| 7 | 0.9% | 0.9% | |
| 8 | 0% | 0% |
Technical Information
Opinion Poll
- Polling firm: YouGov
- Commissioner(s): —
- Fieldwork period: 13–16 June 2025
Calculations
- Sample size: 1912
- Simulations done: 2,097,152
- Error estimate: 1.22%