Opinion Poll by Verian for FOCUS, 11–17 June 2025
Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information
Voting Intentions
Confidence Intervals
| Party | Last Result | Poll Result | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alternative für Deutschland (ESN) | 0.0% | 23.0% | 21.6–24.4% | 21.2–24.9% | 20.9–25.2% | 20.3–25.9% |
| Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands (EPP) | 0.0% | 22.1% | 20.7–23.5% | 20.4–23.9% | 20.0–24.3% | 19.4–25.0% |
| Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands (S&D) | 0.0% | 15.0% | 13.8–16.2% | 13.5–16.6% | 13.2–16.9% | 12.7–17.5% |
| Bündnis 90/Die Grünen (Greens/EFA) | 0.0% | 12.0% | 10.9–13.1% | 10.7–13.5% | 10.4–13.7% | 9.9–14.3% |
| Die Linke (GUE/NGL) | 0.0% | 10.0% | 9.0–11.1% | 8.8–11.4% | 8.6–11.6% | 8.1–12.2% |
| Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern (EPP) | 0.0% | 5.9% | 5.2–6.8% | 5.0–7.0% | 4.8–7.2% | 4.5–7.7% |
| Bündnis Sahra Wagenknecht (NI) | 0.0% | 4.0% | 3.4–4.7% | 3.2–4.9% | 3.1–5.1% | 2.8–5.5% |
| Freie Demokratische Partei (RE) | 0.0% | 3.0% | 2.5–3.7% | 2.4–3.9% | 2.2–4.0% | 2.0–4.4% |
| Freie Wähler (RE) | 0.0% | 1.7% | 1.3–2.2% | 1.2–2.4% | 1.2–2.5% | 1.0–2.8% |
| Partei Mensch Umwelt Tierschutz (GUE/NGL) | 0.0% | 1.1% | 0.8–1.5% | 0.7–1.7% | 0.7–1.8% | 0.6–2.0% |
| Volt Europa (Greens/EFA) | 0.0% | 0.8% | 0.6–1.2% | 0.5–1.3% | 0.5–1.4% | 0.4–1.6% |
| Die PARTEI (NI) | 0.0% | 0.5% | 0.4–0.9% | 0.3–1.0% | 0.3–1.1% | 0.2–1.3% |
| Basisdemokratische Partei Deutschland (*) | 0.0% | 0.2% | 0.1–0.5% | 0.1–0.5% | 0.1–0.6% | 0.0–0.8% |
Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.
Seats
Confidence Intervals
| Party | Last Result | Median | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alternative für Deutschland (ESN) | 0 | 22 | 21–23 | 20–23 | 20–24 | 19–25 |
| Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands (EPP) | 0 | 21 | 19–24 | 18–24 | 18–24 | 18–24 |
| Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands (S&D) | 0 | 15 | 13–16 | 13–16 | 13–16 | 12–17 |
| Bündnis 90/Die Grünen (Greens/EFA) | 0 | 11 | 10–13 | 10–13 | 10–13 | 9–13 |
| Die Linke (GUE/NGL) | 0 | 9 | 8–11 | 8–11 | 8–11 | 8–12 |
| Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern (EPP) | 0 | 5 | 5–6 | 5–7 | 4–7 | 4–8 |
| Bündnis Sahra Wagenknecht (NI) | 0 | 4 | 3–4 | 3–5 | 3–5 | 3–5 |
| Freie Demokratische Partei (RE) | 0 | 3 | 2–3 | 2–4 | 2–4 | 2–4 |
| Freie Wähler (RE) | 0 | 2 | 1–2 | 1–2 | 1–2 | 1–3 |
| Partei Mensch Umwelt Tierschutz (GUE/NGL) | 0 | 1 | 1–2 | 1–2 | 1–2 | 1–2 |
| Volt Europa (Greens/EFA) | 0 | 1 | 0–1 | 0–1 | 0–1 | 0–2 |
| Die PARTEI (NI) | 0 | 1 | 0–1 | 0–1 | 0–1 | 0–1 |
| Basisdemokratische Partei Deutschland (*) | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0–1 | 0–1 |
Alternative für Deutschland (ESN)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Alternative für Deutschland (ESN) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 100% | |
| 2 | 0% | 100% | |
| 3 | 0% | 100% | |
| 4 | 0% | 100% | |
| 5 | 0% | 100% | |
| 6 | 0% | 100% | |
| 7 | 0% | 100% | |
| 8 | 0% | 100% | |
| 9 | 0% | 100% | |
| 10 | 0% | 100% | |
| 11 | 0% | 100% | |
| 12 | 0% | 100% | |
| 13 | 0% | 100% | |
| 14 | 0% | 100% | |
| 15 | 0% | 100% | |
| 16 | 0% | 100% | |
| 17 | 0% | 100% | |
| 18 | 0% | 100% | |
| 19 | 1.0% | 100% | |
| 20 | 8% | 98.9% | |
| 21 | 10% | 90% | |
| 22 | 44% | 80% | Median |
| 23 | 33% | 36% | |
| 24 | 2% | 3% | |
| 25 | 1.3% | 1.3% | |
| 26 | 0% | 0% |
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands (EPP)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands (EPP) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 100% | |
| 2 | 0% | 100% | |
| 3 | 0% | 100% | |
| 4 | 0% | 100% | |
| 5 | 0% | 100% | |
| 6 | 0% | 100% | |
| 7 | 0% | 100% | |
| 8 | 0% | 100% | |
| 9 | 0% | 100% | |
| 10 | 0% | 100% | |
| 11 | 0% | 100% | |
| 12 | 0% | 100% | |
| 13 | 0% | 100% | |
| 14 | 0% | 100% | |
| 15 | 0% | 100% | |
| 16 | 0% | 100% | |
| 17 | 0% | 100% | |
| 18 | 6% | 100% | |
| 19 | 6% | 94% | |
| 20 | 14% | 88% | |
| 21 | 40% | 75% | Median |
| 22 | 9% | 34% | |
| 23 | 6% | 26% | |
| 24 | 20% | 20% | |
| 25 | 0% | 0% |
Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands (S&D)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands (S&D) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 100% | |
| 2 | 0% | 100% | |
| 3 | 0% | 100% | |
| 4 | 0% | 100% | |
| 5 | 0% | 100% | |
| 6 | 0% | 100% | |
| 7 | 0% | 100% | |
| 8 | 0% | 100% | |
| 9 | 0% | 100% | |
| 10 | 0% | 100% | |
| 11 | 0% | 100% | |
| 12 | 1.4% | 100% | |
| 13 | 12% | 98.6% | |
| 14 | 24% | 87% | |
| 15 | 51% | 63% | Median |
| 16 | 11% | 12% | |
| 17 | 0.5% | 0.6% | |
| 18 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 19 | 0% | 0% |
Bündnis 90/Die Grünen (Greens/EFA)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Bündnis 90/Die Grünen (Greens/EFA) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 100% | |
| 2 | 0% | 100% | |
| 3 | 0% | 100% | |
| 4 | 0% | 100% | |
| 5 | 0% | 100% | |
| 6 | 0% | 100% | |
| 7 | 0% | 100% | |
| 8 | 0% | 100% | |
| 9 | 0.7% | 100% | |
| 10 | 22% | 99.3% | |
| 11 | 32% | 77% | Median |
| 12 | 18% | 45% | |
| 13 | 27% | 27% | |
| 14 | 0.2% | 0.2% | |
| 15 | 0% | 0% |
Die Linke (GUE/NGL)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Die Linke (GUE/NGL) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 100% | |
| 2 | 0% | 100% | |
| 3 | 0% | 100% | |
| 4 | 0% | 100% | |
| 5 | 0% | 100% | |
| 6 | 0% | 100% | |
| 7 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 8 | 21% | 99.9% | |
| 9 | 52% | 79% | Median |
| 10 | 16% | 27% | |
| 11 | 10% | 11% | |
| 12 | 0.5% | 0.5% | |
| 13 | 0% | 0% |
Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern (EPP)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern (EPP) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 100% | |
| 2 | 0% | 100% | |
| 3 | 0% | 100% | |
| 4 | 4% | 100% | |
| 5 | 71% | 96% | Median |
| 6 | 17% | 26% | |
| 7 | 8% | 9% | |
| 8 | 1.3% | 1.3% | |
| 9 | 0% | 0% |
Bündnis Sahra Wagenknecht (NI)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Bündnis Sahra Wagenknecht (NI) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 100% | |
| 2 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 3 | 30% | 99.9% | |
| 4 | 63% | 70% | Median |
| 5 | 8% | 8% | |
| 6 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 7 | 0% | 0% |
Freie Demokratische Partei (RE)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Freie Demokratische Partei (RE) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 100% | |
| 2 | 18% | 100% | |
| 3 | 75% | 82% | Median |
| 4 | 7% | 7% | |
| 5 | 0% | 0% |
Freie Wähler (RE)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Freie Wähler (RE) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 35% | 100% | |
| 2 | 63% | 65% | Median |
| 3 | 2% | 2% | |
| 4 | 0% | 0% |
Partei Mensch Umwelt Tierschutz (GUE/NGL)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Partei Mensch Umwelt Tierschutz (GUE/NGL) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0.1% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 74% | 99.9% | Median |
| 2 | 26% | 26% | |
| 3 | 0% | 0% |
Volt Europa (Greens/EFA)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Volt Europa (Greens/EFA) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 36% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 64% | 64% | Median |
| 2 | 0.6% | 0.6% | |
| 3 | 0% | 0% |
Die PARTEI (NI)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Die PARTEI (NI) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 16% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 84% | 84% | Median |
| 2 | 0% | 0% |
Basisdemokratische Partei Deutschland (*)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Basisdemokratische Partei Deutschland (*) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 95% | 100% | Last Result, Median |
| 1 | 5% | 5% | |
| 2 | 0% | 0% |
Coalitions
Confidence Intervals
| Coalition | Last Result | Median | Majority? | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alternative für Deutschland (ESN) | 0 | 22 | 0% | 21–23 | 20–23 | 20–24 | 19–25 |
| Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands (S&D) | 0 | 15 | 0% | 13–16 | 13–16 | 13–16 | 12–17 |
| Bündnis Sahra Wagenknecht (NI) – Die PARTEI (NI) | 0 | 5 | 0% | 4–5 | 3–6 | 3–6 | 3–6 |
| Freie Demokratische Partei (RE) – Freie Wähler (RE) | 0 | 5 | 0% | 3–5 | 3–5 | 3–6 | 3–6 |
Alternative für Deutschland (ESN)
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 100% | |
| 2 | 0% | 100% | |
| 3 | 0% | 100% | |
| 4 | 0% | 100% | |
| 5 | 0% | 100% | |
| 6 | 0% | 100% | |
| 7 | 0% | 100% | |
| 8 | 0% | 100% | |
| 9 | 0% | 100% | |
| 10 | 0% | 100% | |
| 11 | 0% | 100% | |
| 12 | 0% | 100% | |
| 13 | 0% | 100% | |
| 14 | 0% | 100% | |
| 15 | 0% | 100% | |
| 16 | 0% | 100% | |
| 17 | 0% | 100% | |
| 18 | 0% | 100% | |
| 19 | 1.0% | 100% | |
| 20 | 8% | 98.9% | |
| 21 | 10% | 90% | |
| 22 | 44% | 80% | Median |
| 23 | 33% | 36% | |
| 24 | 2% | 3% | |
| 25 | 1.3% | 1.3% | |
| 26 | 0% | 0% |
Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands (S&D)
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 100% | |
| 2 | 0% | 100% | |
| 3 | 0% | 100% | |
| 4 | 0% | 100% | |
| 5 | 0% | 100% | |
| 6 | 0% | 100% | |
| 7 | 0% | 100% | |
| 8 | 0% | 100% | |
| 9 | 0% | 100% | |
| 10 | 0% | 100% | |
| 11 | 0% | 100% | |
| 12 | 1.4% | 100% | |
| 13 | 12% | 98.6% | |
| 14 | 24% | 87% | |
| 15 | 51% | 63% | Median |
| 16 | 11% | 12% | |
| 17 | 0.5% | 0.6% | |
| 18 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 19 | 0% | 0% |
Bündnis Sahra Wagenknecht (NI) – Die PARTEI (NI)
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 100% | |
| 2 | 0% | 100% | |
| 3 | 7% | 100% | |
| 4 | 31% | 93% | |
| 5 | 57% | 63% | Median |
| 6 | 6% | 6% | |
| 7 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 8 | 0% | 0% |
Freie Demokratische Partei (RE) – Freie Wähler (RE)
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 100% | |
| 2 | 0% | 100% | |
| 3 | 11% | 100% | |
| 4 | 25% | 89% | |
| 5 | 61% | 64% | Median |
| 6 | 2% | 3% | |
| 7 | 0.4% | 0.4% | |
| 8 | 0% | 0% |
Technical Information
Opinion Poll
- Polling firm: Verian
- Commissioner(s): FOCUS
- Fieldwork period: 11–17 June 2025
Calculations
- Sample size: 1462
- Simulations done: 2,097,152
- Error estimate: 5.15%