Opinion Poll by GMS, 26–30 June 2025
Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information
Voting Intentions
Confidence Intervals
| Party | Last Result | Poll Result | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands (EPP) | 0.0% | 22.9% | 21.3–24.7% | 20.8–25.2% | 20.4–25.7% | 19.7–26.5% |
| Alternative für Deutschland (ESN) | 0.0% | 22.0% | 20.4–23.8% | 20.0–24.3% | 19.6–24.7% | 18.8–25.6% |
| Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands (S&D) | 0.0% | 15.0% | 13.6–16.5% | 13.2–17.0% | 12.9–17.3% | 12.3–18.1% |
| Bündnis 90/Die Grünen (Greens/EFA) | 0.0% | 13.0% | 11.7–14.5% | 11.4–14.9% | 11.1–15.2% | 10.5–16.0% |
| Die Linke (GUE/NGL) | 0.0% | 9.0% | 8.0–10.3% | 7.7–10.7% | 7.4–11.0% | 6.9–11.6% |
| Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern (EPP) | 0.0% | 6.1% | 5.2–7.1% | 4.9–7.4% | 4.7–7.7% | 4.4–8.3% |
| Freie Demokratische Partei (RE) | 0.0% | 4.0% | 3.3–4.9% | 3.1–5.1% | 2.9–5.4% | 2.6–5.8% |
| Bündnis Sahra Wagenknecht (NI) | 0.0% | 3.0% | 2.4–3.8% | 2.2–4.0% | 2.1–4.2% | 1.8–4.6% |
| Partei Mensch Umwelt Tierschutz (GUE/NGL) | 0.0% | 1.3% | 0.9–1.9% | 0.8–2.1% | 0.7–2.2% | 0.6–2.5% |
| Freie Wähler (RE) | 0.0% | 1.0% | 0.7–1.5% | 0.6–1.7% | 0.5–1.8% | 0.4–2.1% |
| Volt Europa (Greens/EFA) | 0.0% | 0.9% | 0.6–1.4% | 0.5–1.6% | 0.5–1.7% | 0.4–2.0% |
| Die PARTEI (NI) | 0.0% | 0.6% | 0.4–1.1% | 0.3–1.2% | 0.3–1.3% | 0.2–1.6% |
| Basisdemokratische Partei Deutschland (*) | 0.0% | 0.2% | 0.1–0.5% | 0.1–0.6% | 0.1–0.7% | 0.0–0.9% |
Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.
Seats
Confidence Intervals
| Party | Last Result | Median | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands (EPP) | 0 | 22 | 22 | 21–23 | 21–24 | 20–26 |
| Alternative für Deutschland (ESN) | 0 | 21 | 20–21 | 20–21 | 20–21 | 19–24 |
| Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands (S&D) | 0 | 15 | 15–16 | 14–16 | 13–16 | 12–16 |
| Bündnis 90/Die Grünen (Greens/EFA) | 0 | 13 | 12–13 | 12–13 | 12–13 | 11–14 |
| Die Linke (GUE/NGL) | 0 | 8 | 8–9 | 8–9 | 8–9 | 7–10 |
| Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern (EPP) | 0 | 5 | 5–6 | 5–6 | 5–7 | 5–7 |
| Freie Demokratische Partei (RE) | 0 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 4–5 | 3–5 |
| Bündnis Sahra Wagenknecht (NI) | 0 | 3 | 2–3 | 2–3 | 2–3 | 2–4 |
| Partei Mensch Umwelt Tierschutz (GUE/NGL) | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1–2 |
| Freie Wähler (RE) | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1–2 |
| Volt Europa (Greens/EFA) | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0–1 |
| Die PARTEI (NI) | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0–1 |
| Basisdemokratische Partei Deutschland (*) | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0–1 | 0–1 |
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands (EPP)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands (EPP) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 100% | |
| 2 | 0% | 100% | |
| 3 | 0% | 100% | |
| 4 | 0% | 100% | |
| 5 | 0% | 100% | |
| 6 | 0% | 100% | |
| 7 | 0% | 100% | |
| 8 | 0% | 100% | |
| 9 | 0% | 100% | |
| 10 | 0% | 100% | |
| 11 | 0% | 100% | |
| 12 | 0% | 100% | |
| 13 | 0% | 100% | |
| 14 | 0% | 100% | |
| 15 | 0% | 100% | |
| 16 | 0% | 100% | |
| 17 | 0% | 100% | |
| 18 | 0% | 100% | |
| 19 | 0.4% | 100% | |
| 20 | 0.7% | 99.6% | |
| 21 | 4% | 98.9% | |
| 22 | 90% | 95% | Median |
| 23 | 3% | 5% | |
| 24 | 0.4% | 3% | |
| 25 | 0.5% | 2% | |
| 26 | 2% | 2% | |
| 27 | 0% | 0% |
Alternative für Deutschland (ESN)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Alternative für Deutschland (ESN) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 100% | |
| 2 | 0% | 100% | |
| 3 | 0% | 100% | |
| 4 | 0% | 100% | |
| 5 | 0% | 100% | |
| 6 | 0% | 100% | |
| 7 | 0% | 100% | |
| 8 | 0% | 100% | |
| 9 | 0% | 100% | |
| 10 | 0% | 100% | |
| 11 | 0% | 100% | |
| 12 | 0% | 100% | |
| 13 | 0% | 100% | |
| 14 | 0% | 100% | |
| 15 | 0% | 100% | |
| 16 | 0% | 100% | |
| 17 | 0% | 100% | |
| 18 | 0.2% | 100% | |
| 19 | 2% | 99.7% | |
| 20 | 19% | 98% | |
| 21 | 77% | 79% | Median |
| 22 | 0.8% | 2% | |
| 23 | 0.3% | 1.0% | |
| 24 | 0.5% | 0.7% | |
| 25 | 0.2% | 0.2% | |
| 26 | 0% | 0% |
Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands (S&D)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands (S&D) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 100% | |
| 2 | 0% | 100% | |
| 3 | 0% | 100% | |
| 4 | 0% | 100% | |
| 5 | 0% | 100% | |
| 6 | 0% | 100% | |
| 7 | 0% | 100% | |
| 8 | 0% | 100% | |
| 9 | 0% | 100% | |
| 10 | 0% | 100% | |
| 11 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 12 | 0.5% | 99.9% | |
| 13 | 3% | 99.3% | |
| 14 | 4% | 96% | |
| 15 | 76% | 92% | Median |
| 16 | 16% | 16% | |
| 17 | 0.1% | 0.3% | |
| 18 | 0.2% | 0.2% | |
| 19 | 0% | 0% |
Bündnis 90/Die Grünen (Greens/EFA)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Bündnis 90/Die Grünen (Greens/EFA) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 100% | |
| 2 | 0% | 100% | |
| 3 | 0% | 100% | |
| 4 | 0% | 100% | |
| 5 | 0% | 100% | |
| 6 | 0% | 100% | |
| 7 | 0% | 100% | |
| 8 | 0% | 100% | |
| 9 | 0% | 100% | |
| 10 | 0.2% | 100% | |
| 11 | 1.0% | 99.8% | |
| 12 | 22% | 98.9% | |
| 13 | 75% | 77% | Median |
| 14 | 0.7% | 1.2% | |
| 15 | 0.4% | 0.5% | |
| 16 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 17 | 0% | 0% |
Die Linke (GUE/NGL)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Die Linke (GUE/NGL) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 100% | |
| 2 | 0% | 100% | |
| 3 | 0% | 100% | |
| 4 | 0% | 100% | |
| 5 | 0% | 100% | |
| 6 | 0% | 100% | |
| 7 | 1.0% | 100% | |
| 8 | 77% | 99.0% | Median |
| 9 | 21% | 22% | |
| 10 | 0.3% | 0.6% | |
| 11 | 0.3% | 0.3% | |
| 12 | 0% | 0% |
Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern (EPP)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern (EPP) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 100% | |
| 2 | 0% | 100% | |
| 3 | 0% | 100% | |
| 4 | 0.3% | 100% | |
| 5 | 77% | 99.7% | Median |
| 6 | 19% | 22% | |
| 7 | 3% | 3% | |
| 8 | 0.2% | 0.2% | |
| 9 | 0% | 0% |
Freie Demokratische Partei (RE)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Freie Demokratische Partei (RE) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 100% | |
| 2 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 3 | 1.4% | 99.9% | |
| 4 | 95% | 98% | Median |
| 5 | 3% | 3% | |
| 6 | 0.2% | 0.2% | |
| 7 | 0% | 0% |
Bündnis Sahra Wagenknecht (NI)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Bündnis Sahra Wagenknecht (NI) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 100% | |
| 2 | 20% | 100% | |
| 3 | 79% | 80% | Median |
| 4 | 1.0% | 1.0% | |
| 5 | 0% | 0% |
Partei Mensch Umwelt Tierschutz (GUE/NGL)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Partei Mensch Umwelt Tierschutz (GUE/NGL) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 98% | 100% | Median |
| 2 | 2% | 2% | |
| 3 | 0% | 0% |
Freie Wähler (RE)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Freie Wähler (RE) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0.3% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 99.1% | 99.7% | Median |
| 2 | 0.6% | 0.6% | |
| 3 | 0% | 0% |
Volt Europa (Greens/EFA)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Volt Europa (Greens/EFA) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 2% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 97% | 98% | Median |
| 2 | 0.4% | 0.4% | |
| 3 | 0% | 0% |
Die PARTEI (NI)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Die PARTEI (NI) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 1.0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 98.7% | 99.0% | Median |
| 2 | 0.3% | 0.3% | |
| 3 | 0% | 0% |
Basisdemokratische Partei Deutschland (*)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Basisdemokratische Partei Deutschland (*) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 97% | 100% | Last Result, Median |
| 1 | 3% | 3% | |
| 2 | 0% | 0% |
Coalitions
Confidence Intervals
| Coalition | Last Result | Median | Majority? | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alternative für Deutschland (ESN) | 0 | 21 | 0% | 20–21 | 20–21 | 20–21 | 19–24 |
| Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands (S&D) | 0 | 15 | 0% | 15–16 | 14–16 | 13–16 | 12–16 |
| Freie Demokratische Partei (RE) – Freie Wähler (RE) | 0 | 5 | 0% | 5 | 5 | 5–6 | 4–6 |
| Bündnis Sahra Wagenknecht (NI) – Die PARTEI (NI) | 0 | 4 | 0% | 3–4 | 3–4 | 3–4 | 3–5 |
Alternative für Deutschland (ESN)
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 100% | |
| 2 | 0% | 100% | |
| 3 | 0% | 100% | |
| 4 | 0% | 100% | |
| 5 | 0% | 100% | |
| 6 | 0% | 100% | |
| 7 | 0% | 100% | |
| 8 | 0% | 100% | |
| 9 | 0% | 100% | |
| 10 | 0% | 100% | |
| 11 | 0% | 100% | |
| 12 | 0% | 100% | |
| 13 | 0% | 100% | |
| 14 | 0% | 100% | |
| 15 | 0% | 100% | |
| 16 | 0% | 100% | |
| 17 | 0% | 100% | |
| 18 | 0.2% | 100% | |
| 19 | 2% | 99.7% | |
| 20 | 19% | 98% | |
| 21 | 77% | 79% | Median |
| 22 | 0.8% | 2% | |
| 23 | 0.3% | 1.0% | |
| 24 | 0.5% | 0.7% | |
| 25 | 0.2% | 0.2% | |
| 26 | 0% | 0% |
Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands (S&D)
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 100% | |
| 2 | 0% | 100% | |
| 3 | 0% | 100% | |
| 4 | 0% | 100% | |
| 5 | 0% | 100% | |
| 6 | 0% | 100% | |
| 7 | 0% | 100% | |
| 8 | 0% | 100% | |
| 9 | 0% | 100% | |
| 10 | 0% | 100% | |
| 11 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 12 | 0.5% | 99.9% | |
| 13 | 3% | 99.3% | |
| 14 | 4% | 96% | |
| 15 | 76% | 92% | Median |
| 16 | 16% | 16% | |
| 17 | 0.1% | 0.3% | |
| 18 | 0.2% | 0.2% | |
| 19 | 0% | 0% |
Freie Demokratische Partei (RE) – Freie Wähler (RE)
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 100% | |
| 2 | 0% | 100% | |
| 3 | 0.2% | 100% | |
| 4 | 2% | 99.8% | |
| 5 | 95% | 98% | Median |
| 6 | 3% | 4% | |
| 7 | 0.4% | 0.4% | |
| 8 | 0% | 0% |
Bündnis Sahra Wagenknecht (NI) – Die PARTEI (NI)
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 100% | |
| 2 | 0.4% | 100% | |
| 3 | 20% | 99.6% | |
| 4 | 79% | 80% | Median |
| 5 | 1.2% | 1.2% | |
| 6 | 0% | 0% |
Technical Information
Opinion Poll
- Polling firm: GMS
- Commissioner(s): —
- Fieldwork period: 26–30 June 2025
Calculations
- Sample size: 1007
- Simulations done: 2,097,152
- Error estimate: 1.74%