Opinion Poll by INSA and YouGov for BILD, 27–30 June 2025

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Alternative für Deutschland (ESN) 0.0% 23.5% 22.3–24.8% 22.0–25.1% 21.7–25.4% 21.1–26.0%
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands (EPP) 0.0% 22.1% 21.0–23.3% 20.6–23.7% 20.3–24.0% 19.8–24.6%
Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands (S&D) 0.0% 15.5% 14.5–16.6% 14.2–16.9% 14.0–17.1% 13.5–17.7%
Bündnis 90/Die Grünen (Greens/EFA) 0.0% 11.5% 10.6–12.5% 10.4–12.7% 10.2–13.0% 9.8–13.5%
Die Linke (GUE/NGL) 0.0% 9.5% 8.7–10.4% 8.5–10.7% 8.3–10.9% 7.9–11.3%
Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern (EPP) 0.0% 5.9% 5.2–6.6% 5.1–6.8% 4.9–7.0% 4.6–7.4%
Bündnis Sahra Wagenknecht (NI) 0.0% 5.0% 4.4–5.7% 4.2–5.9% 4.1–6.0% 3.8–6.4%
Freie Demokratische Partei (RE) 0.0% 3.5% 3.0–4.1% 2.9–4.2% 2.8–4.4% 2.5–4.7%
Freie Wähler (RE) 0.0% 1.2% 0.9–1.6% 0.9–1.7% 0.8–1.8% 0.7–2.0%
Partei Mensch Umwelt Tierschutz (GUE/NGL) 0.0% 0.7% 0.5–1.1% 0.5–1.2% 0.4–1.2% 0.4–1.4%
Volt Europa (Greens/EFA) 0.0% 0.5% 0.4–0.8% 0.3–0.9% 0.3–1.0% 0.2–1.1%
Die PARTEI (NI) 0.0% 0.4% 0.3–0.7% 0.2–0.7% 0.2–0.8% 0.2–0.9%
Basisdemokratische Partei Deutschland (*) 0.0% 0.1% 0.1–0.3% 0.1–0.4% 0.0–0.4% 0.0–0.5%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Alternative für Deutschland (ESN) 0 22 20–23 20–23 20–23 20–25
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands (EPP) 0 21 20–22 20–22 20–23 19–24
Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands (S&D) 0 15 15–16 14–16 14–16 13–16
Bündnis 90/Die Grünen (Greens/EFA) 0 11 10–12 10–12 10–12 9–13
Die Linke (GUE/NGL) 0 9 9–10 9–10 9–10 8–11
Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern (EPP) 0 5 5–6 5–6 5–6 5–7
Bündnis Sahra Wagenknecht (NI) 0 5 4–6 4–6 4–6 4–6
Freie Demokratische Partei (RE) 0 3 3–4 3–4 3–4 3–4
Freie Wähler (RE) 0 1 1 1 1–2 1–2
Partei Mensch Umwelt Tierschutz (GUE/NGL) 0 1 1 1 1 0–1
Volt Europa (Greens/EFA) 0 1 0–1 0–1 0–1 0–1
Die PARTEI (NI) 0 0 0–1 0–1 0–1 0–1
Basisdemokratische Partei Deutschland (*) 0 0 0 0 0 0

Alternative für Deutschland (ESN)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Alternative für Deutschland (ESN) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 0% 100%  
4 0% 100%  
5 0% 100%  
6 0% 100%  
7 0% 100%  
8 0% 100%  
9 0% 100%  
10 0% 100%  
11 0% 100%  
12 0% 100%  
13 0% 100%  
14 0% 100%  
15 0% 100%  
16 0% 100%  
17 0% 100%  
18 0% 100%  
19 0% 100%  
20 26% 100%  
21 16% 74%  
22 27% 58% Median
23 30% 32%  
24 1.5% 2%  
25 0.5% 0.5%  
26 0% 0%  

Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands (EPP)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands (EPP) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 0% 100%  
4 0% 100%  
5 0% 100%  
6 0% 100%  
7 0% 100%  
8 0% 100%  
9 0% 100%  
10 0% 100%  
11 0% 100%  
12 0% 100%  
13 0% 100%  
14 0% 100%  
15 0% 100%  
16 0% 100%  
17 0% 100%  
18 0% 100%  
19 1.1% 100%  
20 9% 98.9%  
21 47% 90% Median
22 39% 42%  
23 2% 3%  
24 0.7% 0.7%  
25 0% 0%  

Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands (S&D)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands (S&D) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 0% 100%  
4 0% 100%  
5 0% 100%  
6 0% 100%  
7 0% 100%  
8 0% 100%  
9 0% 100%  
10 0% 100%  
11 0% 100%  
12 0.1% 100%  
13 2% 99.9%  
14 8% 98%  
15 55% 90% Median
16 35% 35%  
17 0.1% 0.2%  
18 0.1% 0.1%  
19 0% 0%  

Bündnis 90/Die Grünen (Greens/EFA)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Bündnis 90/Die Grünen (Greens/EFA) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 0% 100%  
4 0% 100%  
5 0% 100%  
6 0% 100%  
7 0% 100%  
8 0% 100%  
9 0.7% 100%  
10 24% 99.3%  
11 65% 76% Median
12 9% 10%  
13 1.1% 1.1%  
14 0% 0%  

Die Linke (GUE/NGL)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Die Linke (GUE/NGL) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 0% 100%  
4 0% 100%  
5 0% 100%  
6 0% 100%  
7 0% 100%  
8 2% 100%  
9 72% 98% Median
10 24% 25%  
11 0.9% 1.0%  
12 0.1% 0.1%  
13 0% 0%  

Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern (EPP)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern (EPP) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 0% 100%  
4 0.4% 100%  
5 55% 99.6% Median
6 42% 44%  
7 2% 2%  
8 0% 0%  

Bündnis Sahra Wagenknecht (NI)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Bündnis Sahra Wagenknecht (NI) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 0% 100%  
4 11% 100%  
5 76% 89% Median
6 13% 13%  
7 0% 0%  

Freie Demokratische Partei (RE)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Freie Demokratische Partei (RE) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0.1% 100%  
3 59% 99.9% Median
4 41% 41%  
5 0% 0%  

Freie Wähler (RE)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Freie Wähler (RE) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 96% 100% Median
2 4% 4%  
3 0% 0%  

Partei Mensch Umwelt Tierschutz (GUE/NGL)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Partei Mensch Umwelt Tierschutz (GUE/NGL) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 2% 100% Last Result
1 98% 98% Median
2 0% 0%  

Volt Europa (Greens/EFA)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Volt Europa (Greens/EFA) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 31% 100% Last Result
1 69% 69% Median
2 0% 0%  

Die PARTEI (NI)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Die PARTEI (NI) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 68% 100% Last Result, Median
1 32% 32%  
2 0% 0%  

Basisdemokratische Partei Deutschland (*)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Basisdemokratische Partei Deutschland (*) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 99.7% 100% Last Result, Median
1 0.3% 0.3%  
2 0% 0%  

Coalitions

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Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median Majority? 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Alternative für Deutschland (ESN) 0 22 0% 20–23 20–23 20–23 20–25
Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands (S&D) 0 15 0% 15–16 14–16 14–16 13–16
Bündnis Sahra Wagenknecht (NI) – Die PARTEI (NI) 0 5 0% 5–6 5–6 4–6 4–7
Freie Demokratische Partei (RE) – Freie Wähler (RE) 0 4 0% 4–5 4–5 4–5 4–6

Alternative für Deutschland (ESN)

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 0% 100%  
4 0% 100%  
5 0% 100%  
6 0% 100%  
7 0% 100%  
8 0% 100%  
9 0% 100%  
10 0% 100%  
11 0% 100%  
12 0% 100%  
13 0% 100%  
14 0% 100%  
15 0% 100%  
16 0% 100%  
17 0% 100%  
18 0% 100%  
19 0% 100%  
20 26% 100%  
21 16% 74%  
22 27% 58% Median
23 30% 32%  
24 1.5% 2%  
25 0.5% 0.5%  
26 0% 0%  

Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands (S&D)

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 0% 100%  
4 0% 100%  
5 0% 100%  
6 0% 100%  
7 0% 100%  
8 0% 100%  
9 0% 100%  
10 0% 100%  
11 0% 100%  
12 0.1% 100%  
13 2% 99.9%  
14 8% 98%  
15 55% 90% Median
16 35% 35%  
17 0.1% 0.2%  
18 0.1% 0.1%  
19 0% 0%  

Bündnis Sahra Wagenknecht (NI) – Die PARTEI (NI)

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 0% 100%  
4 4% 100%  
5 60% 96% Median
6 36% 36%  
7 0.8% 0.8%  
8 0% 0%  

Freie Demokratische Partei (RE) – Freie Wähler (RE)

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 0.1% 100%  
4 56% 99.9% Median
5 43% 44%  
6 1.0% 1.0%  
7 0% 0%  

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

Calculations