Opinion Poll by INSA and YouGov for BILD, 7–11 July 2025
Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information
Voting Intentions
Confidence Intervals
| Party | Last Result | Poll Result | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alternative für Deutschland (ESN) | 0.0% | 24.0% | 22.4–25.6% | 22.0–26.1% | 21.6–26.5% | 20.9–27.3% |
| Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands (EPP) | 0.0% | 22.1% | 20.6–23.7% | 20.2–24.2% | 19.9–24.6% | 19.2–25.3% |
| Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands (S&D) | 0.0% | 15.0% | 13.7–16.4% | 13.4–16.8% | 13.1–17.1% | 12.5–17.8% |
| Die Linke (GUE/NGL) | 0.0% | 11.0% | 9.9–12.2% | 9.6–12.6% | 9.3–12.9% | 8.8–13.5% |
| Bündnis 90/Die Grünen (Greens/EFA) | 0.0% | 11.0% | 9.9–12.2% | 9.6–12.6% | 9.3–12.9% | 8.8–13.5% |
| Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern (EPP) | 0.0% | 5.9% | 5.1–6.9% | 4.9–7.1% | 4.7–7.4% | 4.4–7.9% |
| Bündnis Sahra Wagenknecht (NI) | 0.0% | 4.0% | 3.4–4.8% | 3.2–5.1% | 3.0–5.3% | 2.7–5.7% |
| Freie Demokratische Partei (RE) | 0.0% | 3.0% | 2.5–3.7% | 2.3–3.9% | 2.2–4.1% | 1.9–4.5% |
| Freie Wähler (RE) | 0.0% | 1.4% | 1.1–2.0% | 1.0–2.1% | 0.9–2.3% | 0.7–2.5% |
| Partei Mensch Umwelt Tierschutz (GUE/NGL) | 0.0% | 0.8% | 0.6–1.3% | 0.5–1.4% | 0.5–1.5% | 0.4–1.8% |
| Volt Europa (Greens/EFA) | 0.0% | 0.7% | 0.4–1.1% | 0.4–1.2% | 0.3–1.3% | 0.3–1.5% |
| Die PARTEI (NI) | 0.0% | 0.4% | 0.3–0.8% | 0.2–0.9% | 0.2–1.0% | 0.1–1.2% |
| Basisdemokratische Partei Deutschland (*) | 0.0% | 0.2% | 0.1–0.4% | 0.1–0.5% | 0.0–0.6% | 0.0–0.8% |
Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.
Seats
Confidence Intervals
| Party | Last Result | Median | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alternative für Deutschland (ESN) | 0 | 21 | 21–24 | 21–25 | 21–25 | 21–25 |
| Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands (EPP) | 0 | 21 | 21 | 20–22 | 20–23 | 19–23 |
| Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands (S&D) | 0 | 15 | 14–15 | 13–15 | 13–15 | 13–17 |
| Die Linke (GUE/NGL) | 0 | 11 | 10–11 | 10–11 | 9–11 | 8–13 |
| Bündnis 90/Die Grünen (Greens/EFA) | 0 | 10 | 10 | 10–11 | 9–11 | 9–12 |
| Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern (EPP) | 0 | 6 | 6 | 5–6 | 5–6 | 4–7 |
| Bündnis Sahra Wagenknecht (NI) | 0 | 5 | 4–5 | 4–5 | 3–5 | 3–5 |
| Freie Demokratische Partei (RE) | 0 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 2–3 | 2–4 |
| Freie Wähler (RE) | 0 | 2 | 2 | 1–2 | 1–2 | 1–2 |
| Partei Mensch Umwelt Tierschutz (GUE/NGL) | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0–1 |
| Volt Europa (Greens/EFA) | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0–1 | 0–1 |
| Die PARTEI (NI) | 0 | 0 | 0–1 | 0–1 | 0–1 | 0–1 |
| Basisdemokratische Partei Deutschland (*) | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0–1 |
Alternative für Deutschland (ESN)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Alternative für Deutschland (ESN) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 100% | |
| 2 | 0% | 100% | |
| 3 | 0% | 100% | |
| 4 | 0% | 100% | |
| 5 | 0% | 100% | |
| 6 | 0% | 100% | |
| 7 | 0% | 100% | |
| 8 | 0% | 100% | |
| 9 | 0% | 100% | |
| 10 | 0% | 100% | |
| 11 | 0% | 100% | |
| 12 | 0% | 100% | |
| 13 | 0% | 100% | |
| 14 | 0% | 100% | |
| 15 | 0% | 100% | |
| 16 | 0% | 100% | |
| 17 | 0% | 100% | |
| 18 | 0% | 100% | |
| 19 | 0% | 100% | |
| 20 | 0.2% | 100% | |
| 21 | 78% | 99.7% | Median |
| 22 | 7% | 21% | |
| 23 | 2% | 14% | |
| 24 | 6% | 12% | |
| 25 | 6% | 7% | |
| 26 | 0.2% | 0.2% | |
| 27 | 0% | 0% |
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands (EPP)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands (EPP) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 100% | |
| 2 | 0% | 100% | |
| 3 | 0% | 100% | |
| 4 | 0% | 100% | |
| 5 | 0% | 100% | |
| 6 | 0% | 100% | |
| 7 | 0% | 100% | |
| 8 | 0% | 100% | |
| 9 | 0% | 100% | |
| 10 | 0% | 100% | |
| 11 | 0% | 100% | |
| 12 | 0% | 100% | |
| 13 | 0% | 100% | |
| 14 | 0% | 100% | |
| 15 | 0% | 100% | |
| 16 | 0% | 100% | |
| 17 | 0% | 100% | |
| 18 | 0.3% | 100% | |
| 19 | 1.0% | 99.7% | |
| 20 | 8% | 98.7% | |
| 21 | 82% | 91% | Median |
| 22 | 5% | 9% | |
| 23 | 3% | 4% | |
| 24 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 25 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 26 | 0% | 0% |
Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands (S&D)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands (S&D) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 100% | |
| 2 | 0% | 100% | |
| 3 | 0% | 100% | |
| 4 | 0% | 100% | |
| 5 | 0% | 100% | |
| 6 | 0% | 100% | |
| 7 | 0% | 100% | |
| 8 | 0% | 100% | |
| 9 | 0% | 100% | |
| 10 | 0% | 100% | |
| 11 | 0% | 100% | |
| 12 | 0.5% | 100% | |
| 13 | 7% | 99.5% | |
| 14 | 11% | 92% | |
| 15 | 81% | 82% | Median |
| 16 | 0.5% | 1.3% | |
| 17 | 0.8% | 0.8% | |
| 18 | 0% | 0% |
Die Linke (GUE/NGL)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Die Linke (GUE/NGL) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 100% | |
| 2 | 0% | 100% | |
| 3 | 0% | 100% | |
| 4 | 0% | 100% | |
| 5 | 0% | 100% | |
| 6 | 0% | 100% | |
| 7 | 0% | 100% | |
| 8 | 1.3% | 100% | |
| 9 | 3% | 98.7% | |
| 10 | 14% | 95% | |
| 11 | 79% | 81% | Median |
| 12 | 0.7% | 2% | |
| 13 | 1.3% | 1.3% | |
| 14 | 0% | 0% |
Bündnis 90/Die Grünen (Greens/EFA)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Bündnis 90/Die Grünen (Greens/EFA) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 100% | |
| 2 | 0% | 100% | |
| 3 | 0% | 100% | |
| 4 | 0% | 100% | |
| 5 | 0% | 100% | |
| 6 | 0% | 100% | |
| 7 | 0% | 100% | |
| 8 | 0.4% | 100% | |
| 9 | 4% | 99.6% | |
| 10 | 90% | 96% | Median |
| 11 | 4% | 6% | |
| 12 | 2% | 2% | |
| 13 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 14 | 0% | 0% |
Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern (EPP)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern (EPP) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 100% | |
| 2 | 0% | 100% | |
| 3 | 0% | 100% | |
| 4 | 1.1% | 100% | |
| 5 | 5% | 98.9% | |
| 6 | 92% | 94% | Median |
| 7 | 2% | 2% | |
| 8 | 0% | 0% |
Bündnis Sahra Wagenknecht (NI)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Bündnis Sahra Wagenknecht (NI) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 100% | |
| 2 | 0.2% | 100% | |
| 3 | 4% | 99.8% | |
| 4 | 13% | 96% | |
| 5 | 82% | 83% | Median |
| 6 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 7 | 0% | 0% |
Freie Demokratische Partei (RE)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Freie Demokratische Partei (RE) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 100% | |
| 2 | 4% | 100% | |
| 3 | 95% | 96% | Median |
| 4 | 1.5% | 2% | |
| 5 | 0.2% | 0.2% | |
| 6 | 0% | 0% |
Freie Wähler (RE)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Freie Wähler (RE) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 9% | 100% | |
| 2 | 91% | 91% | Median |
| 3 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 4 | 0% | 0% |
Partei Mensch Umwelt Tierschutz (GUE/NGL)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Partei Mensch Umwelt Tierschutz (GUE/NGL) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0.6% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 99.1% | 99.4% | Median |
| 2 | 0.3% | 0.3% | |
| 3 | 0% | 0% |
Volt Europa (Greens/EFA)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Volt Europa (Greens/EFA) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 97% | 97% | Median |
| 2 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 3 | 0% | 0% |
Die PARTEI (NI)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Die PARTEI (NI) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 89% | 100% | Last Result, Median |
| 1 | 11% | 11% | |
| 2 | 0% | 0% |
Basisdemokratische Partei Deutschland (*)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Basisdemokratische Partei Deutschland (*) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 99.1% | 100% | Last Result, Median |
| 1 | 0.9% | 0.9% | |
| 2 | 0% | 0% |
Coalitions
Confidence Intervals
| Coalition | Last Result | Median | Majority? | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alternative für Deutschland (ESN) | 0 | 21 | 0% | 21–24 | 21–25 | 21–25 | 21–25 |
| Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands (S&D) | 0 | 15 | 0% | 14–15 | 13–15 | 13–15 | 13–17 |
| Bündnis Sahra Wagenknecht (NI) – Die PARTEI (NI) | 0 | 5 | 0% | 5 | 4–5 | 4–5 | 3–6 |
| Freie Demokratische Partei (RE) – Freie Wähler (RE) | 0 | 5 | 0% | 4–5 | 4–5 | 4–5 | 3–6 |
Alternative für Deutschland (ESN)
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 100% | |
| 2 | 0% | 100% | |
| 3 | 0% | 100% | |
| 4 | 0% | 100% | |
| 5 | 0% | 100% | |
| 6 | 0% | 100% | |
| 7 | 0% | 100% | |
| 8 | 0% | 100% | |
| 9 | 0% | 100% | |
| 10 | 0% | 100% | |
| 11 | 0% | 100% | |
| 12 | 0% | 100% | |
| 13 | 0% | 100% | |
| 14 | 0% | 100% | |
| 15 | 0% | 100% | |
| 16 | 0% | 100% | |
| 17 | 0% | 100% | |
| 18 | 0% | 100% | |
| 19 | 0% | 100% | |
| 20 | 0.2% | 100% | |
| 21 | 78% | 99.7% | Median |
| 22 | 7% | 21% | |
| 23 | 2% | 14% | |
| 24 | 6% | 12% | |
| 25 | 6% | 7% | |
| 26 | 0.2% | 0.2% | |
| 27 | 0% | 0% |
Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands (S&D)
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 100% | |
| 2 | 0% | 100% | |
| 3 | 0% | 100% | |
| 4 | 0% | 100% | |
| 5 | 0% | 100% | |
| 6 | 0% | 100% | |
| 7 | 0% | 100% | |
| 8 | 0% | 100% | |
| 9 | 0% | 100% | |
| 10 | 0% | 100% | |
| 11 | 0% | 100% | |
| 12 | 0.5% | 100% | |
| 13 | 7% | 99.5% | |
| 14 | 11% | 92% | |
| 15 | 81% | 82% | Median |
| 16 | 0.5% | 1.3% | |
| 17 | 0.8% | 0.8% | |
| 18 | 0% | 0% |
Bündnis Sahra Wagenknecht (NI) – Die PARTEI (NI)
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 100% | |
| 2 | 0.2% | 100% | |
| 3 | 2% | 99.8% | |
| 4 | 8% | 98% | |
| 5 | 90% | 90% | Median |
| 6 | 0.6% | 0.6% | |
| 7 | 0% | 0% |
Freie Demokratische Partei (RE) – Freie Wähler (RE)
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 100% | |
| 2 | 0% | 100% | |
| 3 | 0.7% | 100% | |
| 4 | 10% | 99.3% | |
| 5 | 89% | 90% | Median |
| 6 | 0.7% | 0.8% | |
| 7 | 0% | 0% |
Technical Information
Opinion Poll
- Polling firm: INSA and YouGov
- Commissioner(s): BILD
- Fieldwork period: 7–11 July 2025
Calculations
- Sample size: 1202
- Simulations done: 1,048,576
- Error estimate: 3.06%