Opinion Poll by Forsa for RTL n-tv, 15–21 July 2025
Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information
Voting Intentions
Confidence Intervals
| Party | Last Result | Poll Result | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alternative für Deutschland (ESN) | 0.0% | 25.0% | 23.9–26.2% | 23.6–26.5% | 23.4–26.8% | 22.8–27.3% |
| Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands (EPP) | 0.0% | 19.7% | 18.7–20.8% | 18.5–21.1% | 18.2–21.4% | 17.8–21.9% |
| Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands (S&D) | 0.0% | 13.0% | 12.2–13.9% | 11.9–14.1% | 11.7–14.4% | 11.3–14.8% |
| Die Linke (GUE/NGL) | 0.0% | 12.0% | 11.2–12.9% | 11.0–13.1% | 10.8–13.3% | 10.4–13.8% |
| Bündnis 90/Die Grünen (Greens/EFA) | 0.0% | 12.0% | 11.2–12.9% | 11.0–13.1% | 10.8–13.3% | 10.4–13.8% |
| Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern (EPP) | 0.0% | 5.3% | 4.7–5.9% | 4.6–6.1% | 4.5–6.2% | 4.2–6.5% |
| Bündnis Sahra Wagenknecht (NI) | 0.0% | 4.0% | 3.5–4.6% | 3.4–4.7% | 3.3–4.8% | 3.1–5.1% |
| Freie Demokratische Partei (RE) | 0.0% | 3.0% | 2.6–3.5% | 2.5–3.6% | 2.4–3.7% | 2.2–4.0% |
| Freie Wähler (RE) | 0.0% | 2.0% | 1.7–2.5% | 1.6–2.6% | 1.6–2.7% | 1.4–2.9% |
| Partei Mensch Umwelt Tierschutz (GUE/NGL) | 0.0% | 1.3% | 1.0–1.6% | 1.0–1.7% | 0.9–1.8% | 0.8–2.0% |
| Volt Europa (Greens/EFA) | 0.0% | 0.9% | 0.7–1.2% | 0.7–1.3% | 0.6–1.4% | 0.5–1.5% |
| Die PARTEI (NI) | 0.0% | 0.6% | 0.5–0.9% | 0.4–1.0% | 0.4–1.0% | 0.3–1.2% |
| Basisdemokratische Partei Deutschland (*) | 0.0% | 0.2% | 0.2–0.4% | 0.1–0.5% | 0.1–0.5% | 0.1–0.6% |
Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.
Seats
Confidence Intervals
| Party | Last Result | Median | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alternative für Deutschland (ESN) | 0 | 23 | 23–25 | 23–25 | 23–25 | 22–26 |
| Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands (EPP) | 0 | 19 | 18–20 | 18–21 | 18–21 | 17–21 |
| Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands (S&D) | 0 | 12 | 12–14 | 12–14 | 11–14 | 11–15 |
| Die Linke (GUE/NGL) | 0 | 11 | 10–12 | 10–12 | 10–13 | 10–13 |
| Bündnis 90/Die Grünen (Greens/EFA) | 0 | 11 | 11–12 | 11–12 | 11–12 | 10–13 |
| Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern (EPP) | 0 | 5 | 4–5 | 4–6 | 4–6 | 4–6 |
| Bündnis Sahra Wagenknecht (NI) | 0 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 3–5 | 3–5 |
| Freie Demokratische Partei (RE) | 0 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 2–3 | 2–4 |
| Freie Wähler (RE) | 0 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 1–3 |
| Partei Mensch Umwelt Tierschutz (GUE/NGL) | 0 | 1 | 1–2 | 1–2 | 1–2 | 1–2 |
| Volt Europa (Greens/EFA) | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0–2 |
| Die PARTEI (NI) | 0 | 1 | 0–1 | 0–1 | 0–1 | 0–1 |
| Basisdemokratische Partei Deutschland (*) | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0–1 |
Alternative für Deutschland (ESN)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Alternative für Deutschland (ESN) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 100% | |
| 2 | 0% | 100% | |
| 3 | 0% | 100% | |
| 4 | 0% | 100% | |
| 5 | 0% | 100% | |
| 6 | 0% | 100% | |
| 7 | 0% | 100% | |
| 8 | 0% | 100% | |
| 9 | 0% | 100% | |
| 10 | 0% | 100% | |
| 11 | 0% | 100% | |
| 12 | 0% | 100% | |
| 13 | 0% | 100% | |
| 14 | 0% | 100% | |
| 15 | 0% | 100% | |
| 16 | 0% | 100% | |
| 17 | 0% | 100% | |
| 18 | 0% | 100% | |
| 19 | 0% | 100% | |
| 20 | 0% | 100% | |
| 21 | 0% | 100% | |
| 22 | 0.8% | 100% | |
| 23 | 52% | 99.1% | Median |
| 24 | 19% | 47% | |
| 25 | 26% | 28% | |
| 26 | 2% | 2% | |
| 27 | 0% | 0% |
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands (EPP)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands (EPP) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 100% | |
| 2 | 0% | 100% | |
| 3 | 0% | 100% | |
| 4 | 0% | 100% | |
| 5 | 0% | 100% | |
| 6 | 0% | 100% | |
| 7 | 0% | 100% | |
| 8 | 0% | 100% | |
| 9 | 0% | 100% | |
| 10 | 0% | 100% | |
| 11 | 0% | 100% | |
| 12 | 0% | 100% | |
| 13 | 0% | 100% | |
| 14 | 0% | 100% | |
| 15 | 0% | 100% | |
| 16 | 0% | 100% | |
| 17 | 1.3% | 100% | |
| 18 | 41% | 98.7% | |
| 19 | 33% | 58% | Median |
| 20 | 17% | 25% | |
| 21 | 8% | 8% | |
| 22 | 0% | 0% |
Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands (S&D)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands (S&D) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 100% | |
| 2 | 0% | 100% | |
| 3 | 0% | 100% | |
| 4 | 0% | 100% | |
| 5 | 0% | 100% | |
| 6 | 0% | 100% | |
| 7 | 0% | 100% | |
| 8 | 0% | 100% | |
| 9 | 0% | 100% | |
| 10 | 0% | 100% | |
| 11 | 4% | 100% | |
| 12 | 46% | 96% | Median |
| 13 | 33% | 49% | |
| 14 | 16% | 17% | |
| 15 | 1.1% | 1.1% | |
| 16 | 0% | 0% |
Die Linke (GUE/NGL)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Die Linke (GUE/NGL) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 100% | |
| 2 | 0% | 100% | |
| 3 | 0% | 100% | |
| 4 | 0% | 100% | |
| 5 | 0% | 100% | |
| 6 | 0% | 100% | |
| 7 | 0% | 100% | |
| 8 | 0% | 100% | |
| 9 | 0% | 100% | |
| 10 | 31% | 100% | |
| 11 | 23% | 69% | Median |
| 12 | 43% | 46% | |
| 13 | 3% | 3% | |
| 14 | 0% | 0% |
Bündnis 90/Die Grünen (Greens/EFA)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Bündnis 90/Die Grünen (Greens/EFA) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 100% | |
| 2 | 0% | 100% | |
| 3 | 0% | 100% | |
| 4 | 0% | 100% | |
| 5 | 0% | 100% | |
| 6 | 0% | 100% | |
| 7 | 0% | 100% | |
| 8 | 0% | 100% | |
| 9 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 10 | 1.5% | 99.9% | |
| 11 | 57% | 98% | Median |
| 12 | 40% | 41% | |
| 13 | 2% | 2% | |
| 14 | 0% | 0% |
Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern (EPP)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern (EPP) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 100% | |
| 2 | 0% | 100% | |
| 3 | 0% | 100% | |
| 4 | 13% | 100% | |
| 5 | 82% | 87% | Median |
| 6 | 5% | 5% | |
| 7 | 0% | 0% |
Bündnis Sahra Wagenknecht (NI)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Bündnis Sahra Wagenknecht (NI) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 100% | |
| 2 | 0% | 100% | |
| 3 | 4% | 100% | |
| 4 | 94% | 96% | Median |
| 5 | 3% | 3% | |
| 6 | 0% | 0% |
Freie Demokratische Partei (RE)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Freie Demokratische Partei (RE) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 100% | |
| 2 | 4% | 100% | |
| 3 | 94% | 96% | Median |
| 4 | 2% | 2% | |
| 5 | 0% | 0% |
Freie Wähler (RE)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Freie Wähler (RE) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 2% | 100% | |
| 2 | 95% | 98% | Median |
| 3 | 2% | 2% | |
| 4 | 0% | 0% |
Partei Mensch Umwelt Tierschutz (GUE/NGL)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Partei Mensch Umwelt Tierschutz (GUE/NGL) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 61% | 100% | Median |
| 2 | 39% | 39% | |
| 3 | 0% | 0% |
Volt Europa (Greens/EFA)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Volt Europa (Greens/EFA) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0.5% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 98.6% | 99.5% | Median |
| 2 | 0.9% | 0.9% | |
| 3 | 0% | 0% |
Die PARTEI (NI)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Die PARTEI (NI) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 19% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 81% | 81% | Median |
| 2 | 0% | 0% |
Basisdemokratische Partei Deutschland (*)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Basisdemokratische Partei Deutschland (*) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 99.3% | 100% | Last Result, Median |
| 1 | 0.7% | 0.7% | |
| 2 | 0% | 0% |
Coalitions
Confidence Intervals
| Coalition | Last Result | Median | Majority? | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alternative für Deutschland (ESN) | 0 | 23 | 0% | 23–25 | 23–25 | 23–25 | 22–26 |
| Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands (S&D) | 0 | 12 | 0% | 12–14 | 12–14 | 11–14 | 11–15 |
| Freie Demokratische Partei (RE) – Freie Wähler (RE) | 0 | 5 | 0% | 5 | 4–5 | 4–6 | 4–6 |
| Bündnis Sahra Wagenknecht (NI) – Die PARTEI (NI) | 0 | 5 | 0% | 4–5 | 4–5 | 4–5 | 3–6 |
Alternative für Deutschland (ESN)
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 100% | |
| 2 | 0% | 100% | |
| 3 | 0% | 100% | |
| 4 | 0% | 100% | |
| 5 | 0% | 100% | |
| 6 | 0% | 100% | |
| 7 | 0% | 100% | |
| 8 | 0% | 100% | |
| 9 | 0% | 100% | |
| 10 | 0% | 100% | |
| 11 | 0% | 100% | |
| 12 | 0% | 100% | |
| 13 | 0% | 100% | |
| 14 | 0% | 100% | |
| 15 | 0% | 100% | |
| 16 | 0% | 100% | |
| 17 | 0% | 100% | |
| 18 | 0% | 100% | |
| 19 | 0% | 100% | |
| 20 | 0% | 100% | |
| 21 | 0% | 100% | |
| 22 | 0.8% | 100% | |
| 23 | 52% | 99.1% | Median |
| 24 | 19% | 47% | |
| 25 | 26% | 28% | |
| 26 | 2% | 2% | |
| 27 | 0% | 0% |
Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands (S&D)
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 100% | |
| 2 | 0% | 100% | |
| 3 | 0% | 100% | |
| 4 | 0% | 100% | |
| 5 | 0% | 100% | |
| 6 | 0% | 100% | |
| 7 | 0% | 100% | |
| 8 | 0% | 100% | |
| 9 | 0% | 100% | |
| 10 | 0% | 100% | |
| 11 | 4% | 100% | |
| 12 | 46% | 96% | Median |
| 13 | 33% | 49% | |
| 14 | 16% | 17% | |
| 15 | 1.1% | 1.1% | |
| 16 | 0% | 0% |
Freie Demokratische Partei (RE) – Freie Wähler (RE)
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 100% | |
| 2 | 0% | 100% | |
| 3 | 0% | 100% | |
| 4 | 6% | 100% | |
| 5 | 90% | 94% | Median |
| 6 | 4% | 4% | |
| 7 | 0% | 0% |
Bündnis Sahra Wagenknecht (NI) – Die PARTEI (NI)
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 100% | |
| 2 | 0% | 100% | |
| 3 | 0.6% | 100% | |
| 4 | 20% | 99.4% | |
| 5 | 77% | 79% | Median |
| 6 | 2% | 2% | |
| 7 | 0% | 0% |
Technical Information
Opinion Poll
- Polling firm: Forsa
- Commissioner(s): RTL n-tv
- Fieldwork period: 15–21 July 2025
Calculations
- Sample size: 2502
- Simulations done: 2,097,152
- Error estimate: 1.78%