Opinion Poll by INSA and YouGov for BILD, 21–25 July 2025

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Alternative für Deutschland (ESN) 0.0% 24.0% 22.5–25.7% 22.1–26.1% 21.7–26.5% 21.0–27.3%
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands (EPP) 0.0% 21.3% 19.8–22.9% 19.4–23.3% 19.1–23.7% 18.4–24.5%
Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands (S&D) 0.0% 15.0% 13.7–16.4% 13.4–16.8% 13.0–17.1% 12.5–17.8%
Bündnis 90/Die Grünen (Greens/EFA) 0.0% 11.0% 9.9–12.2% 9.6–12.6% 9.3–12.9% 8.8–13.5%
Die Linke (GUE/NGL) 0.0% 10.0% 8.9–11.2% 8.6–11.5% 8.4–11.8% 7.9–12.4%
Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern (EPP) 0.0% 5.7% 4.9–6.6% 4.7–6.9% 4.5–7.1% 4.1–7.6%
Bündnis Sahra Wagenknecht (NI) 0.0% 4.0% 3.4–4.8% 3.2–5.0% 3.0–5.3% 2.7–5.7%
Freie Demokratische Partei (RE) 0.0% 3.0% 2.4–3.7% 2.3–3.9% 2.2–4.1% 1.9–4.5%
Freie Wähler (RE) 0.0% 2.1% 1.6–2.7% 1.5–2.9% 1.4–3.1% 1.2–3.4%
Partei Mensch Umwelt Tierschutz (GUE/NGL) 0.0% 1.3% 1.0–1.9% 0.9–2.0% 0.8–2.1% 0.7–2.4%
Volt Europa (Greens/EFA) 0.0% 1.0% 0.7–1.5% 0.6–1.6% 0.6–1.7% 0.5–2.0%
Die PARTEI (NI) 0.0% 0.7% 0.4–1.1% 0.4–1.2% 0.3–1.3% 0.3–1.5%
Basisdemokratische Partei Deutschland (*) 0.0% 0.2% 0.1–0.6% 0.1–0.7% 0.1–0.7% 0.0–0.9%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Alternative für Deutschland (ESN) 0 23 21–24 21–25 21–25 20–25
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands (EPP) 0 21 19–21 19–21 18–22 18–23
Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands (S&D) 0 14 14–15 13–15 13–16 12–17
Bündnis 90/Die Grünen (Greens/EFA) 0 11 10–11 9–12 9–12 9–13
Die Linke (GUE/NGL) 0 9 9–11 8–11 8–11 7–11
Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern (EPP) 0 5 5–6 5–6 5–6 4–7
Bündnis Sahra Wagenknecht (NI) 0 4 4–5 3–5 3–5 3–5
Freie Demokratische Partei (RE) 0 3 2–3 2–3 2–4 2–4
Freie Wähler (RE) 0 2 1–2 1–2 1–3 1–3
Partei Mensch Umwelt Tierschutz (GUE/NGL) 0 1 1–2 1–2 1–2 1–2
Volt Europa (Greens/EFA) 0 1 1–2 1–2 1–2 0–2
Die PARTEI (NI) 0 1 0–1 0–1 0–1 0–1
Basisdemokratische Partei Deutschland (*) 0 0 0–1 0–1 0–1 0–1

Alternative für Deutschland (ESN)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Alternative für Deutschland (ESN) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 0% 100%  
4 0% 100%  
5 0% 100%  
6 0% 100%  
7 0% 100%  
8 0% 100%  
9 0% 100%  
10 0% 100%  
11 0% 100%  
12 0% 100%  
13 0% 100%  
14 0% 100%  
15 0% 100%  
16 0% 100%  
17 0% 100%  
18 0% 100%  
19 0.1% 100%  
20 0.7% 99.9%  
21 22% 99.2%  
22 5% 77%  
23 48% 72% Median
24 18% 24%  
25 6% 6%  
26 0.1% 0.1%  
27 0% 0%  

Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands (EPP)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands (EPP) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 0% 100%  
4 0% 100%  
5 0% 100%  
6 0% 100%  
7 0% 100%  
8 0% 100%  
9 0% 100%  
10 0% 100%  
11 0% 100%  
12 0% 100%  
13 0% 100%  
14 0% 100%  
15 0% 100%  
16 0% 100%  
17 0.3% 100%  
18 3% 99.7%  
19 21% 97%  
20 18% 76%  
21 53% 58% Median
22 2% 4%  
23 2% 2%  
24 0.2% 0.2%  
25 0% 0%  

Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands (S&D)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands (S&D) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 0% 100%  
4 0% 100%  
5 0% 100%  
6 0% 100%  
7 0% 100%  
8 0% 100%  
9 0% 100%  
10 0% 100%  
11 0% 100%  
12 1.1% 100%  
13 9% 98.9%  
14 77% 90% Median
15 10% 13%  
16 2% 3%  
17 2% 2%  
18 0% 0%  

Bündnis 90/Die Grünen (Greens/EFA)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Bündnis 90/Die Grünen (Greens/EFA) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 0% 100%  
4 0% 100%  
5 0% 100%  
6 0% 100%  
7 0% 100%  
8 0.3% 100%  
9 7% 99.7%  
10 34% 93%  
11 51% 58% Median
12 7% 8%  
13 0.6% 0.6%  
14 0% 0%  

Die Linke (GUE/NGL)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Die Linke (GUE/NGL) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 0% 100%  
4 0% 100%  
5 0% 100%  
6 0% 100%  
7 0.6% 100%  
8 9% 99.4%  
9 54% 91% Median
10 18% 37%  
11 18% 18%  
12 0.4% 0.4%  
13 0% 0%  

Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern (EPP)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern (EPP) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 0% 100%  
4 2% 100%  
5 61% 98% Median
6 36% 37%  
7 1.0% 1.1%  
8 0.1% 0.1%  
9 0% 0%  

Bündnis Sahra Wagenknecht (NI)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Bündnis Sahra Wagenknecht (NI) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0.2% 100%  
3 6% 99.8%  
4 72% 94% Median
5 22% 22%  
6 0.1% 0.1%  
7 0% 0%  

Freie Demokratische Partei (RE)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Freie Demokratische Partei (RE) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 11% 100%  
3 86% 89% Median
4 3% 3%  
5 0.1% 0.1%  
6 0% 0%  

Freie Wähler (RE)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Freie Wähler (RE) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 11% 100%  
2 86% 89% Median
3 3% 3%  
4 0.2% 0.2%  
5 0% 0%  

Partei Mensch Umwelt Tierschutz (GUE/NGL)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Partei Mensch Umwelt Tierschutz (GUE/NGL) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 68% 100% Median
2 32% 32%  
3 0% 0%  

Volt Europa (Greens/EFA)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Volt Europa (Greens/EFA) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0.7% 100% Last Result
1 88% 99.3% Median
2 11% 11%  
3 0% 0%  

Die PARTEI (NI)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Die PARTEI (NI) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 16% 100% Last Result
1 84% 84% Median
2 0.2% 0.2%  
3 0% 0%  

Basisdemokratische Partei Deutschland (*)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Basisdemokratische Partei Deutschland (*) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 90% 100% Last Result, Median
1 10% 10%  
2 0% 0%  

Coalitions

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Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median Majority? 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Alternative für Deutschland (ESN) 0 23 0% 21–24 21–25 21–25 20–25
Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands (S&D) 0 14 0% 14–15 13–15 13–16 12–17
Bündnis Sahra Wagenknecht (NI) – Die PARTEI (NI) 0 5 0% 4–6 4–6 4–6 3–6
Freie Demokratische Partei (RE) – Freie Wähler (RE) 0 5 0% 4–5 4–5 3–6 3–7

Alternative für Deutschland (ESN)

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 0% 100%  
4 0% 100%  
5 0% 100%  
6 0% 100%  
7 0% 100%  
8 0% 100%  
9 0% 100%  
10 0% 100%  
11 0% 100%  
12 0% 100%  
13 0% 100%  
14 0% 100%  
15 0% 100%  
16 0% 100%  
17 0% 100%  
18 0% 100%  
19 0.1% 100%  
20 0.7% 99.9%  
21 22% 99.2%  
22 5% 77%  
23 48% 72% Median
24 18% 24%  
25 6% 6%  
26 0.1% 0.1%  
27 0% 0%  

Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands (S&D)

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 0% 100%  
4 0% 100%  
5 0% 100%  
6 0% 100%  
7 0% 100%  
8 0% 100%  
9 0% 100%  
10 0% 100%  
11 0% 100%  
12 1.1% 100%  
13 9% 98.9%  
14 77% 90% Median
15 10% 13%  
16 2% 3%  
17 2% 2%  
18 0% 0%  

Bündnis Sahra Wagenknecht (NI) – Die PARTEI (NI)

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 1.4% 100%  
4 18% 98.6%  
5 59% 80% Median
6 22% 22%  
7 0.1% 0.1%  
8 0% 0%  

Freie Demokratische Partei (RE) – Freie Wähler (RE)

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 4% 100%  
4 14% 96%  
5 79% 83% Median
6 4% 4%  
7 0.7% 0.7%  
8 0% 0%  

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

Calculations