Opinion Poll by Forsa for RTL n-tv, 22–28 July 2025

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Alternative für Deutschland (ESN) 0.0% 25.0% 23.9–26.2% 23.6–26.5% 23.4–26.8% 22.8–27.3%
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands (EPP) 0.0% 20.5% 19.5–21.6% 19.3–21.9% 19.0–22.2% 18.5–22.7%
Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands (S&D) 0.0% 13.0% 12.2–13.9% 11.9–14.1% 11.7–14.4% 11.3–14.8%
Die Linke (GUE/NGL) 0.0% 12.0% 11.2–12.9% 11.0–13.1% 10.8–13.3% 10.4–13.8%
Bündnis 90/Die Grünen (Greens/EFA) 0.0% 12.0% 11.2–12.9% 11.0–13.1% 10.8–13.3% 10.4–13.8%
Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern (EPP) 0.0% 5.5% 4.9–6.1% 4.8–6.3% 4.6–6.4% 4.4–6.8%
Bündnis Sahra Wagenknecht (NI) 0.0% 3.0% 2.6–3.5% 2.5–3.6% 2.4–3.7% 2.2–4.0%
Freie Demokratische Partei (RE) 0.0% 3.0% 2.6–3.5% 2.5–3.6% 2.4–3.7% 2.2–4.0%
Freie Wähler (RE) 0.0% 2.0% 1.7–2.5% 1.6–2.6% 1.6–2.7% 1.4–2.9%
Partei Mensch Umwelt Tierschutz (GUE/NGL) 0.0% 1.3% 1.0–1.6% 1.0–1.7% 0.9–1.8% 0.8–2.0%
Volt Europa (Greens/EFA) 0.0% 0.9% 0.7–1.2% 0.7–1.3% 0.6–1.4% 0.5–1.5%
Die PARTEI (NI) 0.0% 0.6% 0.5–0.9% 0.4–1.0% 0.4–1.0% 0.3–1.2%
Basisdemokratische Partei Deutschland (*) 0.0% 0.2% 0.2–0.4% 0.1–0.5% 0.1–0.5% 0.1–0.6%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Alternative für Deutschland (ESN) 0 24 23–25 23–26 23–26 22–26
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands (EPP) 0 20 19–20 19–21 18–21 17–22
Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands (S&D) 0 12 12–13 11–13 11–14 11–14
Die Linke (GUE/NGL) 0 11 10–12 10–12 10–13 10–13
Bündnis 90/Die Grünen (Greens/EFA) 0 12 11–12 10–13 10–13 10–13
Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern (EPP) 0 5 5–6 4–6 4–6 4–6
Bündnis Sahra Wagenknecht (NI) 0 3 3 2–4 2–4 2–4
Freie Demokratische Partei (RE) 0 3 3–4 2–4 2–4 2–4
Freie Wähler (RE) 0 2 2 2 2–3 1–3
Partei Mensch Umwelt Tierschutz (GUE/NGL) 0 1 1–2 1–2 1–2 1–2
Volt Europa (Greens/EFA) 0 1 1 1 1 1
Die PARTEI (NI) 0 1 0–1 0–1 0–1 0–1
Basisdemokratische Partei Deutschland (*) 0 0 0 0 0 0–1

Alternative für Deutschland (ESN)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Alternative für Deutschland (ESN) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 0% 100%  
4 0% 100%  
5 0% 100%  
6 0% 100%  
7 0% 100%  
8 0% 100%  
9 0% 100%  
10 0% 100%  
11 0% 100%  
12 0% 100%  
13 0% 100%  
14 0% 100%  
15 0% 100%  
16 0% 100%  
17 0% 100%  
18 0% 100%  
19 0% 100%  
20 0% 100%  
21 0.1% 100%  
22 1.4% 99.9%  
23 24% 98%  
24 61% 74% Median
25 8% 13%  
26 5% 5%  
27 0.1% 0.1%  
28 0% 0%  

Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands (EPP)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands (EPP) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 0% 100%  
4 0% 100%  
5 0% 100%  
6 0% 100%  
7 0% 100%  
8 0% 100%  
9 0% 100%  
10 0% 100%  
11 0% 100%  
12 0% 100%  
13 0% 100%  
14 0% 100%  
15 0% 100%  
16 0% 100%  
17 0.9% 100%  
18 4% 99.1%  
19 28% 95%  
20 61% 67% Median
21 5% 7%  
22 1.3% 1.3%  
23 0% 0%  

Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands (S&D)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands (S&D) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 0% 100%  
4 0% 100%  
5 0% 100%  
6 0% 100%  
7 0% 100%  
8 0% 100%  
9 0% 100%  
10 0.1% 100%  
11 9% 99.9%  
12 44% 91% Median
13 44% 46%  
14 3% 3%  
15 0.1% 0.1%  
16 0% 0%  

Die Linke (GUE/NGL)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Die Linke (GUE/NGL) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 0% 100%  
4 0% 100%  
5 0% 100%  
6 0% 100%  
7 0% 100%  
8 0% 100%  
9 0% 100%  
10 35% 100%  
11 32% 65% Median
12 29% 33%  
13 4% 4%  
14 0.3% 0.3%  
15 0% 0%  

Bündnis 90/Die Grünen (Greens/EFA)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Bündnis 90/Die Grünen (Greens/EFA) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 0% 100%  
4 0% 100%  
5 0% 100%  
6 0% 100%  
7 0% 100%  
8 0% 100%  
9 0% 100%  
10 6% 100%  
11 34% 94%  
12 54% 60% Median
13 6% 6%  
14 0.3% 0.3%  
15 0% 0%  

Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern (EPP)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern (EPP) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 0% 100%  
4 9% 100%  
5 54% 91% Median
6 36% 36%  
7 0.5% 0.5%  
8 0% 0%  

Bündnis Sahra Wagenknecht (NI)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Bündnis Sahra Wagenknecht (NI) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 10% 100%  
3 83% 90% Median
4 7% 7%  
5 0% 0%  

Freie Demokratische Partei (RE)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Freie Demokratische Partei (RE) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 7% 100%  
3 75% 93% Median
4 18% 18%  
5 0% 0%  

Freie Wähler (RE)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Freie Wähler (RE) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 2% 100%  
2 94% 98% Median
3 3% 3%  
4 0% 0%  

Partei Mensch Umwelt Tierschutz (GUE/NGL)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Partei Mensch Umwelt Tierschutz (GUE/NGL) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 79% 100% Median
2 21% 21%  
3 0% 0%  

Volt Europa (Greens/EFA)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Volt Europa (Greens/EFA) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0.1% 100% Last Result
1 99.4% 99.9% Median
2 0.5% 0.5%  
3 0% 0%  

Die PARTEI (NI)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Die PARTEI (NI) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 24% 100% Last Result
1 76% 76% Median
2 0% 0%  

Basisdemokratische Partei Deutschland (*)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Basisdemokratische Partei Deutschland (*) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 98% 100% Last Result, Median
1 2% 2%  
2 0% 0%  

Coalitions

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Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median Majority? 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Alternative für Deutschland (ESN) 0 24 0% 23–25 23–26 23–26 22–26
Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands (S&D) 0 12 0% 12–13 11–13 11–14 11–14
Freie Demokratische Partei (RE) – Freie Wähler (RE) 0 5 0% 5–6 4–6 4–6 4–7
Bündnis Sahra Wagenknecht (NI) – Die PARTEI (NI) 0 4 0% 3–4 3–5 2–5 2–5

Alternative für Deutschland (ESN)

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 0% 100%  
4 0% 100%  
5 0% 100%  
6 0% 100%  
7 0% 100%  
8 0% 100%  
9 0% 100%  
10 0% 100%  
11 0% 100%  
12 0% 100%  
13 0% 100%  
14 0% 100%  
15 0% 100%  
16 0% 100%  
17 0% 100%  
18 0% 100%  
19 0% 100%  
20 0% 100%  
21 0.1% 100%  
22 1.4% 99.9%  
23 24% 98%  
24 61% 74% Median
25 8% 13%  
26 5% 5%  
27 0.1% 0.1%  
28 0% 0%  

Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands (S&D)

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 0% 100%  
4 0% 100%  
5 0% 100%  
6 0% 100%  
7 0% 100%  
8 0% 100%  
9 0% 100%  
10 0.1% 100%  
11 9% 99.9%  
12 44% 91% Median
13 44% 46%  
14 3% 3%  
15 0.1% 0.1%  
16 0% 0%  

Freie Demokratische Partei (RE) – Freie Wähler (RE)

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 0.4% 100%  
4 7% 99.6%  
5 72% 92% Median
6 19% 20%  
7 0.8% 0.8%  
8 0% 0%  

Bündnis Sahra Wagenknecht (NI) – Die PARTEI (NI)

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 4% 100%  
3 24% 96%  
4 66% 72% Median
5 6% 6%  
6 0% 0%  

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

Calculations