Opinion Poll by Verian for FOCUS, 23–29 July 2025
Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information
Voting Intentions
Confidence Intervals
| Party | Last Result | Poll Result | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alternative für Deutschland (ESN) | 0.0% | 24.0% | 22.6–25.5% | 22.3–25.9% | 21.9–26.3% | 21.3–27.0% |
| Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands (EPP) | 0.0% | 21.3% | 20.0–22.7% | 19.6–23.1% | 19.3–23.5% | 18.7–24.2% |
| Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands (S&D) | 0.0% | 14.0% | 12.9–15.2% | 12.6–15.6% | 12.3–15.9% | 11.8–16.5% |
| Bündnis 90/Die Grünen (Greens/EFA) | 0.0% | 12.0% | 11.0–13.2% | 10.7–13.5% | 10.4–13.8% | 10.0–14.4% |
| Die Linke (GUE/NGL) | 0.0% | 11.0% | 10.0–12.1% | 9.7–12.4% | 9.5–12.7% | 9.0–13.3% |
| Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern (EPP) | 0.0% | 5.7% | 5.0–6.6% | 4.8–6.8% | 4.6–7.0% | 4.3–7.4% |
| Freie Demokratische Partei (RE) | 0.0% | 4.0% | 3.4–4.7% | 3.2–5.0% | 3.1–5.1% | 2.9–5.5% |
| Bündnis Sahra Wagenknecht (NI) | 0.0% | 3.0% | 2.5–3.6% | 2.3–3.8% | 2.2–4.0% | 2.0–4.3% |
| Freie Wähler (RE) | 0.0% | 1.7% | 1.3–2.2% | 1.2–2.4% | 1.1–2.5% | 1.0–2.8% |
| Partei Mensch Umwelt Tierschutz (GUE/NGL) | 0.0% | 1.1% | 0.8–1.5% | 0.7–1.6% | 0.7–1.8% | 0.5–2.0% |
| Volt Europa (Greens/EFA) | 0.0% | 0.7% | 0.5–1.1% | 0.5–1.2% | 0.4–1.3% | 0.3–1.5% |
| Die PARTEI (NI) | 0.0% | 0.5% | 0.4–0.9% | 0.3–1.0% | 0.3–1.1% | 0.2–1.3% |
| Basisdemokratische Partei Deutschland (*) | 0.0% | 0.2% | 0.1–0.5% | 0.1–0.5% | 0.1–0.6% | 0.0–0.7% |
Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.
Seats
Confidence Intervals
| Party | Last Result | Median | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alternative für Deutschland (ESN) | 0 | 23 | 21–24 | 21–25 | 20–25 | 20–26 |
| Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands (EPP) | 0 | 21 | 18–22 | 18–22 | 18–22 | 17–23 |
| Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands (S&D) | 0 | 13 | 12–14 | 11–15 | 11–15 | 11–16 |
| Bündnis 90/Die Grünen (Greens/EFA) | 0 | 12 | 10–12 | 10–13 | 10–13 | 10–14 |
| Die Linke (GUE/NGL) | 0 | 11 | 9–12 | 9–12 | 9–12 | 9–12 |
| Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern (EPP) | 0 | 5 | 5–6 | 4–6 | 4–6 | 4–7 |
| Freie Demokratische Partei (RE) | 0 | 4 | 3–4 | 3–4 | 3–5 | 3–5 |
| Bündnis Sahra Wagenknecht (NI) | 0 | 3 | 2–4 | 2–4 | 2–4 | 2–4 |
| Freie Wähler (RE) | 0 | 1 | 1–2 | 1–2 | 1–2 | 1–3 |
| Partei Mensch Umwelt Tierschutz (GUE/NGL) | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1–2 | 1–2 | 1–2 |
| Volt Europa (Greens/EFA) | 0 | 1 | 0–1 | 0–1 | 0–1 | 0–1 |
| Die PARTEI (NI) | 0 | 1 | 0–1 | 0–1 | 0–1 | 0–1 |
| Basisdemokratische Partei Deutschland (*) | 0 | 0 | 0–1 | 0–1 | 0–1 | 0–1 |
Alternative für Deutschland (ESN)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Alternative für Deutschland (ESN) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 100% | |
| 2 | 0% | 100% | |
| 3 | 0% | 100% | |
| 4 | 0% | 100% | |
| 5 | 0% | 100% | |
| 6 | 0% | 100% | |
| 7 | 0% | 100% | |
| 8 | 0% | 100% | |
| 9 | 0% | 100% | |
| 10 | 0% | 100% | |
| 11 | 0% | 100% | |
| 12 | 0% | 100% | |
| 13 | 0% | 100% | |
| 14 | 0% | 100% | |
| 15 | 0% | 100% | |
| 16 | 0% | 100% | |
| 17 | 0% | 100% | |
| 18 | 0% | 100% | |
| 19 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 20 | 4% | 99.9% | |
| 21 | 7% | 96% | |
| 22 | 39% | 89% | |
| 23 | 19% | 50% | Median |
| 24 | 25% | 31% | |
| 25 | 5% | 6% | |
| 26 | 0.9% | 1.0% | |
| 27 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 28 | 0% | 0% |
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands (EPP)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands (EPP) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 100% | |
| 2 | 0% | 100% | |
| 3 | 0% | 100% | |
| 4 | 0% | 100% | |
| 5 | 0% | 100% | |
| 6 | 0% | 100% | |
| 7 | 0% | 100% | |
| 8 | 0% | 100% | |
| 9 | 0% | 100% | |
| 10 | 0% | 100% | |
| 11 | 0% | 100% | |
| 12 | 0% | 100% | |
| 13 | 0% | 100% | |
| 14 | 0% | 100% | |
| 15 | 0% | 100% | |
| 16 | 0% | 100% | |
| 17 | 0.8% | 100% | |
| 18 | 11% | 99.2% | |
| 19 | 14% | 88% | |
| 20 | 23% | 74% | |
| 21 | 25% | 51% | Median |
| 22 | 25% | 26% | |
| 23 | 1.0% | 1.0% | |
| 24 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 25 | 0% | 0% |
Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands (S&D)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands (S&D) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 100% | |
| 2 | 0% | 100% | |
| 3 | 0% | 100% | |
| 4 | 0% | 100% | |
| 5 | 0% | 100% | |
| 6 | 0% | 100% | |
| 7 | 0% | 100% | |
| 8 | 0% | 100% | |
| 9 | 0% | 100% | |
| 10 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 11 | 9% | 99.9% | |
| 12 | 7% | 91% | |
| 13 | 38% | 85% | Median |
| 14 | 37% | 46% | |
| 15 | 9% | 10% | |
| 16 | 1.0% | 1.0% | |
| 17 | 0% | 0% |
Bündnis 90/Die Grünen (Greens/EFA)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Bündnis 90/Die Grünen (Greens/EFA) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 100% | |
| 2 | 0% | 100% | |
| 3 | 0% | 100% | |
| 4 | 0% | 100% | |
| 5 | 0% | 100% | |
| 6 | 0% | 100% | |
| 7 | 0% | 100% | |
| 8 | 0% | 100% | |
| 9 | 0.3% | 100% | |
| 10 | 12% | 99.7% | |
| 11 | 26% | 87% | |
| 12 | 55% | 62% | Median |
| 13 | 5% | 7% | |
| 14 | 1.3% | 1.3% | |
| 15 | 0% | 0% |
Die Linke (GUE/NGL)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Die Linke (GUE/NGL) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 100% | |
| 2 | 0% | 100% | |
| 3 | 0% | 100% | |
| 4 | 0% | 100% | |
| 5 | 0% | 100% | |
| 6 | 0% | 100% | |
| 7 | 0% | 100% | |
| 8 | 0.4% | 100% | |
| 9 | 10% | 99.6% | |
| 10 | 29% | 90% | |
| 11 | 46% | 61% | Median |
| 12 | 14% | 14% | |
| 13 | 0.3% | 0.3% | |
| 14 | 0% | 0% |
Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern (EPP)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern (EPP) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 100% | |
| 2 | 0% | 100% | |
| 3 | 0% | 100% | |
| 4 | 9% | 100% | |
| 5 | 61% | 91% | Median |
| 6 | 28% | 30% | |
| 7 | 2% | 2% | |
| 8 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 9 | 0% | 0% |
Freie Demokratische Partei (RE)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Freie Demokratische Partei (RE) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 100% | |
| 2 | 0% | 100% | |
| 3 | 14% | 100% | |
| 4 | 81% | 86% | Median |
| 5 | 5% | 5% | |
| 6 | 0.2% | 0.2% | |
| 7 | 0% | 0% |
Bündnis Sahra Wagenknecht (NI)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Bündnis Sahra Wagenknecht (NI) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 100% | |
| 2 | 11% | 100% | |
| 3 | 73% | 89% | Median |
| 4 | 16% | 16% | |
| 5 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 6 | 0% | 0% |
Freie Wähler (RE)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Freie Wähler (RE) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 53% | 100% | Median |
| 2 | 45% | 47% | |
| 3 | 2% | 2% | |
| 4 | 0% | 0% |
Partei Mensch Umwelt Tierschutz (GUE/NGL)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Partei Mensch Umwelt Tierschutz (GUE/NGL) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0.2% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 91% | 99.8% | Median |
| 2 | 9% | 9% | |
| 3 | 0% | 0% |
Volt Europa (Greens/EFA)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Volt Europa (Greens/EFA) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 17% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 82% | 83% | Median |
| 2 | 0.2% | 0.2% | |
| 3 | 0% | 0% |
Die PARTEI (NI)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Die PARTEI (NI) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 33% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 67% | 67% | Median |
| 2 | 0% | 0% |
Basisdemokratische Partei Deutschland (*)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Basisdemokratische Partei Deutschland (*) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 88% | 100% | Last Result, Median |
| 1 | 12% | 12% | |
| 2 | 0% | 0% |
Coalitions
Confidence Intervals
| Coalition | Last Result | Median | Majority? | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alternative für Deutschland (ESN) | 0 | 23 | 0% | 21–24 | 21–25 | 20–25 | 20–26 |
| Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands (S&D) | 0 | 13 | 0% | 12–14 | 11–15 | 11–15 | 11–16 |
| Freie Demokratische Partei (RE) – Freie Wähler (RE) | 0 | 5 | 0% | 5–6 | 5–6 | 4–7 | 4–7 |
| Bündnis Sahra Wagenknecht (NI) – Die PARTEI (NI) | 0 | 4 | 0% | 3–4 | 3–5 | 3–5 | 2–5 |
Alternative für Deutschland (ESN)
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 100% | |
| 2 | 0% | 100% | |
| 3 | 0% | 100% | |
| 4 | 0% | 100% | |
| 5 | 0% | 100% | |
| 6 | 0% | 100% | |
| 7 | 0% | 100% | |
| 8 | 0% | 100% | |
| 9 | 0% | 100% | |
| 10 | 0% | 100% | |
| 11 | 0% | 100% | |
| 12 | 0% | 100% | |
| 13 | 0% | 100% | |
| 14 | 0% | 100% | |
| 15 | 0% | 100% | |
| 16 | 0% | 100% | |
| 17 | 0% | 100% | |
| 18 | 0% | 100% | |
| 19 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 20 | 4% | 99.9% | |
| 21 | 7% | 96% | |
| 22 | 39% | 89% | |
| 23 | 19% | 50% | Median |
| 24 | 25% | 31% | |
| 25 | 5% | 6% | |
| 26 | 0.9% | 1.0% | |
| 27 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 28 | 0% | 0% |
Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands (S&D)
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 100% | |
| 2 | 0% | 100% | |
| 3 | 0% | 100% | |
| 4 | 0% | 100% | |
| 5 | 0% | 100% | |
| 6 | 0% | 100% | |
| 7 | 0% | 100% | |
| 8 | 0% | 100% | |
| 9 | 0% | 100% | |
| 10 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 11 | 9% | 99.9% | |
| 12 | 7% | 91% | |
| 13 | 38% | 85% | Median |
| 14 | 37% | 46% | |
| 15 | 9% | 10% | |
| 16 | 1.0% | 1.0% | |
| 17 | 0% | 0% |
Freie Demokratische Partei (RE) – Freie Wähler (RE)
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 100% | |
| 2 | 0% | 100% | |
| 3 | 0% | 100% | |
| 4 | 4% | 100% | |
| 5 | 58% | 96% | Median |
| 6 | 34% | 39% | |
| 7 | 4% | 5% | |
| 8 | 0.4% | 0.4% | |
| 9 | 0% | 0% |
Bündnis Sahra Wagenknecht (NI) – Die PARTEI (NI)
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 100% | |
| 2 | 2% | 100% | |
| 3 | 32% | 98% | |
| 4 | 57% | 66% | Median |
| 5 | 9% | 9% | |
| 6 | 0% | 0% |
Technical Information
Opinion Poll
- Polling firm: Verian
- Commissioner(s): FOCUS
- Fieldwork period: 23–29 July 2025
Calculations
- Sample size: 1473
- Simulations done: 2,097,152
- Error estimate: 3.46%