Opinion Poll by INSA and YouGov for BILD, 8–11 August 2025

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Alternative für Deutschland (ESN) 0.0% 25.0% 23.8–26.3% 23.4–26.6% 23.2–26.9% 22.6–27.6%
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands (EPP) 0.0% 21.3% 20.2–22.5% 19.8–22.9% 19.6–23.2% 19.0–23.8%
Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands (S&D) 0.0% 14.5% 13.5–15.5% 13.2–15.9% 13.0–16.1% 12.6–16.6%
Bündnis 90/Die Grünen (Greens/EFA) 0.0% 10.5% 9.7–11.4% 9.4–11.7% 9.2–11.9% 8.9–12.4%
Die Linke (GUE/NGL) 0.0% 9.5% 8.7–10.4% 8.5–10.7% 8.3–10.9% 7.9–11.3%
Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern (EPP) 0.0% 5.7% 5.1–6.4% 4.9–6.6% 4.7–6.8% 4.5–7.1%
Bündnis Sahra Wagenknecht (NI) 0.0% 4.5% 3.9–5.1% 3.8–5.3% 3.7–5.5% 3.4–5.8%
Freie Demokratische Partei (RE) 0.0% 3.5% 3.0–4.1% 2.9–4.2% 2.8–4.4% 2.5–4.7%
Freie Wähler (RE) 0.0% 1.9% 1.6–2.3% 1.4–2.5% 1.4–2.6% 1.2–2.8%
Partei Mensch Umwelt Tierschutz (GUE/NGL) 0.0% 1.2% 0.9–1.6% 0.9–1.7% 0.8–1.8% 0.7–2.0%
Volt Europa (Greens/EFA) 0.0% 0.8% 0.6–1.2% 0.6–1.3% 0.5–1.4% 0.4–1.5%
Die PARTEI (NI) 0.0% 0.6% 0.4–0.9% 0.4–1.0% 0.3–1.1% 0.3–1.2%
Basisdemokratische Partei Deutschland (*) 0.0% 0.2% 0.1–0.4% 0.1–0.5% 0.1–0.5% 0.0–0.6%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Alternative für Deutschland (ESN) 0 24 22–25 21–25 21–25 21–26
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands (EPP) 0 21 19–21 19–22 19–22 18–22
Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands (S&D) 0 13 13–15 13–15 13–16 12–17
Bündnis 90/Die Grünen (Greens/EFA) 0 10 10–11 9–11 9–11 8–12
Die Linke (GUE/NGL) 0 9 8–10 8–10 8–10 8–11
Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern (EPP) 0 5 4–6 4–6 4–6 4–7
Bündnis Sahra Wagenknecht (NI) 0 5 4–5 4–5 4–5 3–6
Freie Demokratische Partei (RE) 0 3 3–4 3–4 3–4 3–4
Freie Wähler (RE) 0 2 1–2 1–2 1–3 1–3
Partei Mensch Umwelt Tierschutz (GUE/NGL) 0 1 1 1–2 1–2 1–2
Volt Europa (Greens/EFA) 0 1 1 1 1 0–2
Die PARTEI (NI) 0 1 0–1 0–1 0–1 0–1
Basisdemokratische Partei Deutschland (*) 0 0 0 0 0 0–1

Alternative für Deutschland (ESN)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Alternative für Deutschland (ESN) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 0% 100%  
4 0% 100%  
5 0% 100%  
6 0% 100%  
7 0% 100%  
8 0% 100%  
9 0% 100%  
10 0% 100%  
11 0% 100%  
12 0% 100%  
13 0% 100%  
14 0% 100%  
15 0% 100%  
16 0% 100%  
17 0% 100%  
18 0% 100%  
19 0% 100%  
20 0% 100%  
21 8% 100%  
22 5% 92%  
23 34% 87%  
24 36% 53% Median
25 17% 18%  
26 0.9% 1.0%  
27 0.1% 0.1%  
28 0% 0%  

Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands (EPP)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands (EPP) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 0% 100%  
4 0% 100%  
5 0% 100%  
6 0% 100%  
7 0% 100%  
8 0% 100%  
9 0% 100%  
10 0% 100%  
11 0% 100%  
12 0% 100%  
13 0% 100%  
14 0% 100%  
15 0% 100%  
16 0% 100%  
17 0% 100%  
18 0.5% 100%  
19 16% 99.4%  
20 27% 83%  
21 51% 56% Median
22 5% 6%  
23 0.1% 0.1%  
24 0% 0%  

Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands (S&D)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands (S&D) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 0% 100%  
4 0% 100%  
5 0% 100%  
6 0% 100%  
7 0% 100%  
8 0% 100%  
9 0% 100%  
10 0% 100%  
11 0.1% 100%  
12 0.6% 99.9%  
13 54% 99.3% Median
14 17% 46%  
15 26% 29%  
16 1.4% 3%  
17 1.4% 1.4%  
18 0% 0%  

Bündnis 90/Die Grünen (Greens/EFA)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Bündnis 90/Die Grünen (Greens/EFA) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 0% 100%  
4 0% 100%  
5 0% 100%  
6 0% 100%  
7 0% 100%  
8 2% 100%  
9 6% 98%  
10 42% 92% Median
11 48% 50%  
12 1.5% 1.5%  
13 0% 0%  

Die Linke (GUE/NGL)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Die Linke (GUE/NGL) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 0% 100%  
4 0% 100%  
5 0% 100%  
6 0% 100%  
7 0.2% 100%  
8 29% 99.8%  
9 51% 70% Median
10 18% 19%  
11 1.1% 1.1%  
12 0% 0%  

Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern (EPP)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern (EPP) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 0% 100%  
4 13% 100%  
5 47% 87% Median
6 38% 39%  
7 2% 2%  
8 0% 0%  

Bündnis Sahra Wagenknecht (NI)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Bündnis Sahra Wagenknecht (NI) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 2% 100%  
4 32% 98%  
5 65% 66% Median
6 2% 2%  
7 0% 0%  

Freie Demokratische Partei (RE)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Freie Demokratische Partei (RE) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0.3% 100%  
3 60% 99.7% Median
4 39% 40%  
5 0.3% 0.3%  
6 0% 0%  

Freie Wähler (RE)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Freie Wähler (RE) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 19% 100%  
2 77% 81% Median
3 3% 3%  
4 0% 0%  

Partei Mensch Umwelt Tierschutz (GUE/NGL)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Partei Mensch Umwelt Tierschutz (GUE/NGL) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 94% 100% Median
2 6% 6%  
3 0% 0%  

Volt Europa (Greens/EFA)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Volt Europa (Greens/EFA) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0.5% 100% Last Result
1 98% 99.5% Median
2 1.1% 1.1%  
3 0% 0%  

Die PARTEI (NI)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Die PARTEI (NI) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 30% 100% Last Result
1 70% 70% Median
2 0% 0%  

Basisdemokratische Partei Deutschland (*)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Basisdemokratische Partei Deutschland (*) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 99.3% 100% Last Result, Median
1 0.7% 0.7%  
2 0% 0%  

Coalitions

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Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median Majority? 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Alternative für Deutschland (ESN) 0 24 0% 22–25 21–25 21–25 21–26
Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands (S&D) 0 13 0% 13–15 13–15 13–16 12–17
Bündnis Sahra Wagenknecht (NI) – Die PARTEI (NI) 0 5 0% 4–6 4–6 4–6 3–7
Freie Demokratische Partei (RE) – Freie Wähler (RE) 0 5 0% 4–6 4–6 4–6 4–7

Alternative für Deutschland (ESN)

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 0% 100%  
4 0% 100%  
5 0% 100%  
6 0% 100%  
7 0% 100%  
8 0% 100%  
9 0% 100%  
10 0% 100%  
11 0% 100%  
12 0% 100%  
13 0% 100%  
14 0% 100%  
15 0% 100%  
16 0% 100%  
17 0% 100%  
18 0% 100%  
19 0% 100%  
20 0% 100%  
21 8% 100%  
22 5% 92%  
23 34% 87%  
24 36% 53% Median
25 17% 18%  
26 0.9% 1.0%  
27 0.1% 0.1%  
28 0% 0%  

Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands (S&D)

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 0% 100%  
4 0% 100%  
5 0% 100%  
6 0% 100%  
7 0% 100%  
8 0% 100%  
9 0% 100%  
10 0% 100%  
11 0.1% 100%  
12 0.6% 99.9%  
13 54% 99.3% Median
14 17% 46%  
15 26% 29%  
16 1.4% 3%  
17 1.4% 1.4%  
18 0% 0%  

Bündnis Sahra Wagenknecht (NI) – Die PARTEI (NI)

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 1.1% 100%  
4 13% 98.9%  
5 36% 85%  
6 48% 50% Median
7 1.5% 1.5%  
8 0% 0%  

Freie Demokratische Partei (RE) – Freie Wähler (RE)

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 0% 100%  
4 13% 100%  
5 50% 87% Median
6 35% 36%  
7 0.9% 0.9%  
8 0% 0%  

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

Calculations