Opinion Poll by Allensbach for Frankfurter Allgemeine Zeitung, 1–14 August 2025
Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information
Voting Intentions
Confidence Intervals
| Party | Last Result | Poll Result | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alternative für Deutschland (ESN) | 0.0% | 22.5% | 20.9–24.2% | 20.4–24.7% | 20.0–25.1% | 19.3–25.9% |
| Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands (EPP) | 0.0% | 22.1% | 20.5–23.8% | 20.0–24.3% | 19.7–24.7% | 18.9–25.5% |
| Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands (S&D) | 0.0% | 16.0% | 14.6–17.5% | 14.2–18.0% | 13.9–18.3% | 13.3–19.1% |
| Bündnis 90/Die Grünen (Greens/EFA) | 0.0% | 11.0% | 9.9–12.4% | 9.6–12.8% | 9.3–13.1% | 8.7–13.7% |
| Die Linke (GUE/NGL) | 0.0% | 10.0% | 8.9–11.3% | 8.6–11.6% | 8.3–12.0% | 7.8–12.6% |
| Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern (EPP) | 0.0% | 5.9% | 5.1–7.0% | 4.8–7.2% | 4.6–7.5% | 4.3–8.0% |
| Bündnis Sahra Wagenknecht (NI) | 0.0% | 4.0% | 3.3–4.9% | 3.1–5.1% | 3.0–5.4% | 2.7–5.8% |
| Freie Demokratische Partei (RE) | 0.0% | 4.0% | 3.3–4.9% | 3.1–5.1% | 3.0–5.4% | 2.7–5.8% |
| Freie Wähler (RE) | 0.0% | 1.5% | 1.1–2.1% | 1.0–2.3% | 0.9–2.5% | 0.8–2.8% |
| Partei Mensch Umwelt Tierschutz (GUE/NGL) | 0.0% | 1.0% | 0.7–1.5% | 0.6–1.6% | 0.5–1.8% | 0.4–2.0% |
| Volt Europa (Greens/EFA) | 0.0% | 0.8% | 0.5–1.2% | 0.4–1.4% | 0.4–1.5% | 0.3–1.8% |
| Die PARTEI (NI) | 0.0% | 0.5% | 0.3–0.9% | 0.2–1.0% | 0.2–1.1% | 0.1–1.3% |
| Basisdemokratische Partei Deutschland (*) | 0.0% | 0.2% | 0.1–0.5% | 0.1–0.6% | 0.0–0.7% | 0.0–0.9% |
Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.
Seats
Confidence Intervals
| Party | Last Result | Median | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alternative für Deutschland (ESN) | 0 | 21 | 20–23 | 19–23 | 19–23 | 18–24 |
| Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands (EPP) | 0 | 21 | 19–23 | 19–23 | 19–23 | 18–26 |
| Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands (S&D) | 0 | 15 | 13–16 | 13–18 | 13–19 | 13–19 |
| Bündnis 90/Die Grünen (Greens/EFA) | 0 | 11 | 9–12 | 9–12 | 8–13 | 8–14 |
| Die Linke (GUE/NGL) | 0 | 10 | 9–11 | 8–11 | 8–11 | 7–12 |
| Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern (EPP) | 0 | 6 | 4–6 | 4–7 | 4–7 | 4–8 |
| Bündnis Sahra Wagenknecht (NI) | 0 | 4 | 3–4 | 3–5 | 3–5 | 3–6 |
| Freie Demokratische Partei (RE) | 0 | 4 | 3–5 | 3–5 | 3–5 | 3–6 |
| Freie Wähler (RE) | 0 | 1 | 1–2 | 1–3 | 1–3 | 1–3 |
| Partei Mensch Umwelt Tierschutz (GUE/NGL) | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1–2 | 0–2 | 0–2 |
| Volt Europa (Greens/EFA) | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0–1 | 0–1 | 0–2 |
| Die PARTEI (NI) | 0 | 1 | 0–1 | 0–1 | 0–1 | 0–1 |
| Basisdemokratische Partei Deutschland (*) | 0 | 0 | 0–1 | 0–1 | 0–1 | 0–1 |
Alternative für Deutschland (ESN)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Alternative für Deutschland (ESN) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 100% | |
| 2 | 0% | 100% | |
| 3 | 0% | 100% | |
| 4 | 0% | 100% | |
| 5 | 0% | 100% | |
| 6 | 0% | 100% | |
| 7 | 0% | 100% | |
| 8 | 0% | 100% | |
| 9 | 0% | 100% | |
| 10 | 0% | 100% | |
| 11 | 0% | 100% | |
| 12 | 0% | 100% | |
| 13 | 0% | 100% | |
| 14 | 0% | 100% | |
| 15 | 0% | 100% | |
| 16 | 0% | 100% | |
| 17 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 18 | 2% | 99.9% | |
| 19 | 6% | 98% | |
| 20 | 16% | 93% | |
| 21 | 51% | 77% | Median |
| 22 | 16% | 27% | |
| 23 | 8% | 11% | |
| 24 | 2% | 2% | |
| 25 | 0.1% | 0.3% | |
| 26 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 27 | 0% | 0% |
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands (EPP)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands (EPP) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 100% | |
| 2 | 0% | 100% | |
| 3 | 0% | 100% | |
| 4 | 0% | 100% | |
| 5 | 0% | 100% | |
| 6 | 0% | 100% | |
| 7 | 0% | 100% | |
| 8 | 0% | 100% | |
| 9 | 0% | 100% | |
| 10 | 0% | 100% | |
| 11 | 0% | 100% | |
| 12 | 0% | 100% | |
| 13 | 0% | 100% | |
| 14 | 0% | 100% | |
| 15 | 0% | 100% | |
| 16 | 0% | 100% | |
| 17 | 0.2% | 100% | |
| 18 | 2% | 99.8% | |
| 19 | 12% | 98% | |
| 20 | 12% | 86% | |
| 21 | 43% | 74% | Median |
| 22 | 5% | 30% | |
| 23 | 23% | 25% | |
| 24 | 0.9% | 2% | |
| 25 | 0.1% | 1.0% | |
| 26 | 0.9% | 0.9% | |
| 27 | 0% | 0% |
Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands (S&D)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands (S&D) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 100% | |
| 2 | 0% | 100% | |
| 3 | 0% | 100% | |
| 4 | 0% | 100% | |
| 5 | 0% | 100% | |
| 6 | 0% | 100% | |
| 7 | 0% | 100% | |
| 8 | 0% | 100% | |
| 9 | 0% | 100% | |
| 10 | 0% | 100% | |
| 11 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 12 | 0.2% | 99.9% | |
| 13 | 10% | 99.7% | |
| 14 | 32% | 89% | |
| 15 | 33% | 57% | Median |
| 16 | 14% | 24% | |
| 17 | 4% | 10% | |
| 18 | 2% | 6% | |
| 19 | 4% | 4% | |
| 20 | 0% | 0% |
Bündnis 90/Die Grünen (Greens/EFA)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Bündnis 90/Die Grünen (Greens/EFA) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 100% | |
| 2 | 0% | 100% | |
| 3 | 0% | 100% | |
| 4 | 0% | 100% | |
| 5 | 0% | 100% | |
| 6 | 0% | 100% | |
| 7 | 0% | 100% | |
| 8 | 3% | 100% | |
| 9 | 20% | 97% | |
| 10 | 18% | 77% | |
| 11 | 40% | 59% | Median |
| 12 | 16% | 19% | |
| 13 | 2% | 3% | |
| 14 | 0.6% | 0.6% | |
| 15 | 0% | 0% |
Die Linke (GUE/NGL)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Die Linke (GUE/NGL) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 100% | |
| 2 | 0% | 100% | |
| 3 | 0% | 100% | |
| 4 | 0% | 100% | |
| 5 | 0% | 100% | |
| 6 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 7 | 2% | 99.9% | |
| 8 | 6% | 98% | |
| 9 | 27% | 92% | |
| 10 | 46% | 65% | Median |
| 11 | 18% | 19% | |
| 12 | 0.8% | 1.0% | |
| 13 | 0.2% | 0.2% | |
| 14 | 0% | 0% |
Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern (EPP)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern (EPP) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 100% | |
| 2 | 0% | 100% | |
| 3 | 0% | 100% | |
| 4 | 17% | 100% | |
| 5 | 14% | 83% | |
| 6 | 62% | 69% | Median |
| 7 | 5% | 7% | |
| 8 | 2% | 2% | |
| 9 | 0% | 0% |
Bündnis Sahra Wagenknecht (NI)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Bündnis Sahra Wagenknecht (NI) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 100% | |
| 2 | 0.4% | 100% | |
| 3 | 12% | 99.6% | |
| 4 | 78% | 88% | Median |
| 5 | 8% | 10% | |
| 6 | 2% | 2% | |
| 7 | 0% | 0% |
Freie Demokratische Partei (RE)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Freie Demokratische Partei (RE) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 100% | |
| 2 | 0.4% | 100% | |
| 3 | 27% | 99.6% | |
| 4 | 53% | 73% | Median |
| 5 | 18% | 20% | |
| 6 | 1.3% | 1.3% | |
| 7 | 0% | 0% |
Freie Wähler (RE)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Freie Wähler (RE) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 65% | 100% | Median |
| 2 | 30% | 35% | |
| 3 | 5% | 5% | |
| 4 | 0% | 0% |
Partei Mensch Umwelt Tierschutz (GUE/NGL)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Partei Mensch Umwelt Tierschutz (GUE/NGL) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 91% | 96% | Median |
| 2 | 5% | 5% | |
| 3 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 4 | 0% | 0% |
Volt Europa (Greens/EFA)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Volt Europa (Greens/EFA) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 10% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 88% | 90% | Median |
| 2 | 2% | 2% | |
| 3 | 0% | 0% |
Die PARTEI (NI)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Die PARTEI (NI) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 34% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 66% | 66% | Median |
| 2 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 3 | 0% | 0% |
Basisdemokratische Partei Deutschland (*)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Basisdemokratische Partei Deutschland (*) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 68% | 100% | Last Result, Median |
| 1 | 32% | 32% | |
| 2 | 0% | 0% |
Coalitions
Confidence Intervals
| Coalition | Last Result | Median | Majority? | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alternative für Deutschland (ESN) | 0 | 21 | 0% | 20–23 | 19–23 | 19–23 | 18–24 |
| Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands (S&D) | 0 | 15 | 0% | 13–16 | 13–18 | 13–19 | 13–19 |
| Freie Demokratische Partei (RE) – Freie Wähler (RE) | 0 | 5 | 0% | 4–6 | 4–7 | 4–7 | 4–8 |
| Bündnis Sahra Wagenknecht (NI) – Die PARTEI (NI) | 0 | 5 | 0% | 4–5 | 3–6 | 3–6 | 3–7 |
Alternative für Deutschland (ESN)
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 100% | |
| 2 | 0% | 100% | |
| 3 | 0% | 100% | |
| 4 | 0% | 100% | |
| 5 | 0% | 100% | |
| 6 | 0% | 100% | |
| 7 | 0% | 100% | |
| 8 | 0% | 100% | |
| 9 | 0% | 100% | |
| 10 | 0% | 100% | |
| 11 | 0% | 100% | |
| 12 | 0% | 100% | |
| 13 | 0% | 100% | |
| 14 | 0% | 100% | |
| 15 | 0% | 100% | |
| 16 | 0% | 100% | |
| 17 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 18 | 2% | 99.9% | |
| 19 | 6% | 98% | |
| 20 | 16% | 93% | |
| 21 | 51% | 77% | Median |
| 22 | 16% | 27% | |
| 23 | 8% | 11% | |
| 24 | 2% | 2% | |
| 25 | 0.1% | 0.3% | |
| 26 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 27 | 0% | 0% |
Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands (S&D)
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 100% | |
| 2 | 0% | 100% | |
| 3 | 0% | 100% | |
| 4 | 0% | 100% | |
| 5 | 0% | 100% | |
| 6 | 0% | 100% | |
| 7 | 0% | 100% | |
| 8 | 0% | 100% | |
| 9 | 0% | 100% | |
| 10 | 0% | 100% | |
| 11 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 12 | 0.2% | 99.9% | |
| 13 | 10% | 99.7% | |
| 14 | 32% | 89% | |
| 15 | 33% | 57% | Median |
| 16 | 14% | 24% | |
| 17 | 4% | 10% | |
| 18 | 2% | 6% | |
| 19 | 4% | 4% | |
| 20 | 0% | 0% |
Freie Demokratische Partei (RE) – Freie Wähler (RE)
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 100% | |
| 2 | 0% | 100% | |
| 3 | 0% | 100% | |
| 4 | 14% | 100% | |
| 5 | 43% | 86% | Median |
| 6 | 37% | 42% | |
| 7 | 5% | 5% | |
| 8 | 0.5% | 0.5% | |
| 9 | 0% | 0% |
Bündnis Sahra Wagenknecht (NI) – Die PARTEI (NI)
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 100% | |
| 2 | 0.2% | 100% | |
| 3 | 8% | 99.8% | |
| 4 | 29% | 92% | |
| 5 | 55% | 63% | Median |
| 6 | 7% | 8% | |
| 7 | 2% | 2% | |
| 8 | 0% | 0% |
Technical Information
Opinion Poll
- Polling firm: Allensbach
- Commissioner(s): Frankfurter Allgemeine Zeitung
- Fieldwork period: 1–14 August 2025
Calculations
- Sample size: 1051
- Simulations done: 2,097,152
- Error estimate: 2.53%