Opinion Poll by INSA and YouGov for BILD, 11–15 August 2025
Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information
Voting Intentions
Confidence Intervals
| Party | Last Result | Poll Result | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alternative für Deutschland (ESN) | 0.0% | 25.0% | 23.5–26.7% | 23.0–27.2% | 22.7–27.6% | 21.9–28.4% |
| Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands (EPP) | 0.0% | 20.6% | 19.1–22.1% | 18.7–22.6% | 18.4–22.9% | 17.7–23.7% |
| Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands (S&D) | 0.0% | 15.0% | 13.7–16.4% | 13.4–16.8% | 13.1–17.1% | 12.5–17.8% |
| Bündnis 90/Die Grünen (Greens/EFA) | 0.0% | 11.0% | 9.9–12.3% | 9.6–12.6% | 9.4–12.9% | 8.9–13.5% |
| Die Linke (GUE/NGL) | 0.0% | 9.0% | 8.0–10.2% | 7.8–10.5% | 7.5–10.8% | 7.1–11.4% |
| Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern (EPP) | 0.0% | 5.5% | 4.7–6.4% | 4.5–6.7% | 4.3–6.9% | 4.0–7.4% |
| Bündnis Sahra Wagenknecht (NI) | 0.0% | 4.0% | 3.3–4.8% | 3.2–5.0% | 3.0–5.2% | 2.7–5.7% |
| Freie Demokratische Partei (RE) | 0.0% | 4.0% | 3.3–4.8% | 3.2–5.0% | 3.0–5.2% | 2.7–5.7% |
| Freie Wähler (RE) | 0.0% | 2.0% | 1.6–2.6% | 1.4–2.8% | 1.3–3.0% | 1.2–3.3% |
| Partei Mensch Umwelt Tierschutz (GUE/NGL) | 0.0% | 1.2% | 0.9–1.8% | 0.8–1.9% | 0.7–2.0% | 0.6–2.3% |
| Volt Europa (Greens/EFA) | 0.0% | 0.9% | 0.6–1.4% | 0.6–1.5% | 0.5–1.6% | 0.4–1.9% |
| Die PARTEI (NI) | 0.0% | 0.7% | 0.4–1.1% | 0.4–1.2% | 0.3–1.3% | 0.3–1.5% |
| Basisdemokratische Partei Deutschland (*) | 0.0% | 0.2% | 0.1–0.6% | 0.1–0.7% | 0.1–0.7% | 0.0–0.9% |
Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.
Seats
Confidence Intervals
| Party | Last Result | Median | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alternative für Deutschland (ESN) | 0 | 23 | 23–25 | 22–25 | 21–26 | 21–26 |
| Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands (EPP) | 0 | 19 | 18–20 | 18–21 | 18–22 | 16–22 |
| Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands (S&D) | 0 | 14 | 13–15 | 13–16 | 13–16 | 12–17 |
| Bündnis 90/Die Grünen (Greens/EFA) | 0 | 10 | 10–12 | 10–12 | 9–12 | 8–13 |
| Die Linke (GUE/NGL) | 0 | 9 | 8–9 | 8–10 | 7–10 | 7–11 |
| Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern (EPP) | 0 | 6 | 4–6 | 4–6 | 4–6 | 4–7 |
| Bündnis Sahra Wagenknecht (NI) | 0 | 4 | 3–4 | 3–5 | 3–5 | 3–5 |
| Freie Demokratische Partei (RE) | 0 | 4 | 4–5 | 3–5 | 3–5 | 3–5 |
| Freie Wähler (RE) | 0 | 2 | 2–3 | 1–3 | 1–3 | 1–3 |
| Partei Mensch Umwelt Tierschutz (GUE/NGL) | 0 | 1 | 1–2 | 1–2 | 1–2 | 1–2 |
| Volt Europa (Greens/EFA) | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1–2 | 1–2 | 0–2 |
| Die PARTEI (NI) | 0 | 1 | 0–1 | 0–1 | 0–1 | 0–1 |
| Basisdemokratische Partei Deutschland (*) | 0 | 0 | 0–1 | 0–1 | 0–1 | 0–1 |
Alternative für Deutschland (ESN)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Alternative für Deutschland (ESN) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 100% | |
| 2 | 0% | 100% | |
| 3 | 0% | 100% | |
| 4 | 0% | 100% | |
| 5 | 0% | 100% | |
| 6 | 0% | 100% | |
| 7 | 0% | 100% | |
| 8 | 0% | 100% | |
| 9 | 0% | 100% | |
| 10 | 0% | 100% | |
| 11 | 0% | 100% | |
| 12 | 0% | 100% | |
| 13 | 0% | 100% | |
| 14 | 0% | 100% | |
| 15 | 0% | 100% | |
| 16 | 0% | 100% | |
| 17 | 0% | 100% | |
| 18 | 0% | 100% | |
| 19 | 0% | 100% | |
| 20 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 21 | 3% | 99.9% | |
| 22 | 7% | 97% | |
| 23 | 62% | 90% | Median |
| 24 | 8% | 29% | |
| 25 | 18% | 21% | |
| 26 | 3% | 3% | |
| 27 | 0.3% | 0.3% | |
| 28 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 29 | 0% | 0% |
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands (EPP)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands (EPP) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 100% | |
| 2 | 0% | 100% | |
| 3 | 0% | 100% | |
| 4 | 0% | 100% | |
| 5 | 0% | 100% | |
| 6 | 0% | 100% | |
| 7 | 0% | 100% | |
| 8 | 0% | 100% | |
| 9 | 0% | 100% | |
| 10 | 0% | 100% | |
| 11 | 0% | 100% | |
| 12 | 0% | 100% | |
| 13 | 0% | 100% | |
| 14 | 0% | 100% | |
| 15 | 0% | 100% | |
| 16 | 0.6% | 100% | |
| 17 | 1.0% | 99.4% | |
| 18 | 19% | 98% | |
| 19 | 31% | 79% | Median |
| 20 | 39% | 48% | |
| 21 | 5% | 9% | |
| 22 | 4% | 4% | |
| 23 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 24 | 0% | 0% |
Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands (S&D)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands (S&D) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 100% | |
| 2 | 0% | 100% | |
| 3 | 0% | 100% | |
| 4 | 0% | 100% | |
| 5 | 0% | 100% | |
| 6 | 0% | 100% | |
| 7 | 0% | 100% | |
| 8 | 0% | 100% | |
| 9 | 0% | 100% | |
| 10 | 0% | 100% | |
| 11 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 12 | 1.1% | 99.9% | |
| 13 | 24% | 98.8% | |
| 14 | 50% | 75% | Median |
| 15 | 17% | 25% | |
| 16 | 6% | 8% | |
| 17 | 2% | 2% | |
| 18 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 19 | 0% | 0% |
Bündnis 90/Die Grünen (Greens/EFA)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Bündnis 90/Die Grünen (Greens/EFA) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 100% | |
| 2 | 0% | 100% | |
| 3 | 0% | 100% | |
| 4 | 0% | 100% | |
| 5 | 0% | 100% | |
| 6 | 0% | 100% | |
| 7 | 0% | 100% | |
| 8 | 1.1% | 100% | |
| 9 | 4% | 98.9% | |
| 10 | 51% | 95% | Median |
| 11 | 17% | 45% | |
| 12 | 27% | 28% | |
| 13 | 0.9% | 1.0% | |
| 14 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 15 | 0% | 0% |
Die Linke (GUE/NGL)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Die Linke (GUE/NGL) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 100% | |
| 2 | 0% | 100% | |
| 3 | 0% | 100% | |
| 4 | 0% | 100% | |
| 5 | 0% | 100% | |
| 6 | 0.2% | 100% | |
| 7 | 3% | 99.8% | |
| 8 | 41% | 97% | |
| 9 | 49% | 56% | Median |
| 10 | 6% | 7% | |
| 11 | 1.2% | 1.3% | |
| 12 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 13 | 0% | 0% |
Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern (EPP)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern (EPP) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 100% | |
| 2 | 0% | 100% | |
| 3 | 0.2% | 100% | |
| 4 | 12% | 99.8% | |
| 5 | 25% | 87% | |
| 6 | 61% | 62% | Median |
| 7 | 1.2% | 1.2% | |
| 8 | 0% | 0% |
Bündnis Sahra Wagenknecht (NI)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Bündnis Sahra Wagenknecht (NI) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 100% | |
| 2 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 3 | 43% | 99.9% | |
| 4 | 51% | 57% | Median |
| 5 | 5% | 6% | |
| 6 | 0.2% | 0.2% | |
| 7 | 0% | 0% |
Freie Demokratische Partei (RE)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Freie Demokratische Partei (RE) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 100% | |
| 2 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 3 | 8% | 99.9% | |
| 4 | 75% | 92% | Median |
| 5 | 16% | 17% | |
| 6 | 0.3% | 0.3% | |
| 7 | 0% | 0% |
Freie Wähler (RE)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Freie Wähler (RE) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 7% | 100% | |
| 2 | 66% | 93% | Median |
| 3 | 27% | 27% | |
| 4 | 0% | 0% |
Partei Mensch Umwelt Tierschutz (GUE/NGL)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Partei Mensch Umwelt Tierschutz (GUE/NGL) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 56% | 100% | Median |
| 2 | 44% | 44% | |
| 3 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 4 | 0% | 0% |
Volt Europa (Greens/EFA)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Volt Europa (Greens/EFA) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 1.2% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 89% | 98.8% | Median |
| 2 | 10% | 10% | |
| 3 | 0% | 0% |
Die PARTEI (NI)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Die PARTEI (NI) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 17% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 83% | 83% | Median |
| 2 | 0.2% | 0.2% | |
| 3 | 0% | 0% |
Basisdemokratische Partei Deutschland (*)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Basisdemokratische Partei Deutschland (*) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 83% | 100% | Last Result, Median |
| 1 | 17% | 17% | |
| 2 | 0% | 0% |
Coalitions
Confidence Intervals
| Coalition | Last Result | Median | Majority? | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alternative für Deutschland (ESN) | 0 | 23 | 0% | 23–25 | 22–25 | 21–26 | 21–26 |
| Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands (S&D) | 0 | 14 | 0% | 13–15 | 13–16 | 13–16 | 12–17 |
| Freie Demokratische Partei (RE) – Freie Wähler (RE) | 0 | 6 | 0% | 5–7 | 5–7 | 5–7 | 4–7 |
| Bündnis Sahra Wagenknecht (NI) – Die PARTEI (NI) | 0 | 5 | 0% | 4–5 | 3–5 | 3–6 | 3–6 |
Alternative für Deutschland (ESN)
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 100% | |
| 2 | 0% | 100% | |
| 3 | 0% | 100% | |
| 4 | 0% | 100% | |
| 5 | 0% | 100% | |
| 6 | 0% | 100% | |
| 7 | 0% | 100% | |
| 8 | 0% | 100% | |
| 9 | 0% | 100% | |
| 10 | 0% | 100% | |
| 11 | 0% | 100% | |
| 12 | 0% | 100% | |
| 13 | 0% | 100% | |
| 14 | 0% | 100% | |
| 15 | 0% | 100% | |
| 16 | 0% | 100% | |
| 17 | 0% | 100% | |
| 18 | 0% | 100% | |
| 19 | 0% | 100% | |
| 20 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 21 | 3% | 99.9% | |
| 22 | 7% | 97% | |
| 23 | 62% | 90% | Median |
| 24 | 8% | 29% | |
| 25 | 18% | 21% | |
| 26 | 3% | 3% | |
| 27 | 0.3% | 0.3% | |
| 28 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 29 | 0% | 0% |
Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands (S&D)
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 100% | |
| 2 | 0% | 100% | |
| 3 | 0% | 100% | |
| 4 | 0% | 100% | |
| 5 | 0% | 100% | |
| 6 | 0% | 100% | |
| 7 | 0% | 100% | |
| 8 | 0% | 100% | |
| 9 | 0% | 100% | |
| 10 | 0% | 100% | |
| 11 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 12 | 1.1% | 99.9% | |
| 13 | 24% | 98.8% | |
| 14 | 50% | 75% | Median |
| 15 | 17% | 25% | |
| 16 | 6% | 8% | |
| 17 | 2% | 2% | |
| 18 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 19 | 0% | 0% |
Freie Demokratische Partei (RE) – Freie Wähler (RE)
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 100% | |
| 2 | 0% | 100% | |
| 3 | 0% | 100% | |
| 4 | 1.3% | 100% | |
| 5 | 11% | 98.7% | |
| 6 | 45% | 87% | Median |
| 7 | 42% | 42% | |
| 8 | 0.5% | 0.5% | |
| 9 | 0% | 0% |
Bündnis Sahra Wagenknecht (NI) – Die PARTEI (NI)
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 100% | |
| 2 | 0% | 100% | |
| 3 | 9% | 100% | |
| 4 | 40% | 91% | |
| 5 | 47% | 51% | Median |
| 6 | 4% | 4% | |
| 7 | 0.2% | 0.2% | |
| 8 | 0% | 0% |
Technical Information
Opinion Poll
- Polling firm: INSA and YouGov
- Commissioner(s): BILD
- Fieldwork period: 11–15 August 2025
Calculations
- Sample size: 1206
- Simulations done: 2,097,152
- Error estimate: 1.25%