Opinion Poll by YouGov, 15–18 August 2025

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Alternative für Deutschland (ESN) 0.0% 25.0% 23.7–26.4% 23.4–26.7% 23.1–27.1% 22.5–27.7%
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands (EPP) 0.0% 21.3% 20.1–22.6% 19.8–22.9% 19.5–23.2% 18.9–23.9%
Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands (S&D) 0.0% 14.0% 13.0–15.1% 12.7–15.4% 12.5–15.7% 12.0–16.2%
Bündnis 90/Die Grünen (Greens/EFA) 0.0% 12.0% 11.1–13.0% 10.8–13.3% 10.6–13.6% 10.2–14.1%
Die Linke (GUE/NGL) 0.0% 10.0% 9.1–11.0% 8.9–11.2% 8.7–11.5% 8.3–11.9%
Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern (EPP) 0.0% 5.7% 5.0–6.4% 4.9–6.7% 4.7–6.8% 4.4–7.2%
Bündnis Sahra Wagenknecht (NI) 0.0% 5.0% 4.4–5.7% 4.3–5.9% 4.1–6.1% 3.8–6.5%
Freie Demokratische Partei (RE) 0.0% 3.0% 2.5–3.6% 2.4–3.7% 2.3–3.9% 2.1–4.2%
Freie Wähler (RE) 0.0% 1.4% 1.1–1.8% 1.0–1.9% 0.9–2.0% 0.8–2.2%
Partei Mensch Umwelt Tierschutz (GUE/NGL) 0.0% 0.9% 0.6–1.2% 0.6–1.3% 0.5–1.4% 0.4–1.6%
Volt Europa (Greens/EFA) 0.0% 0.6% 0.4–0.9% 0.4–1.0% 0.3–1.1% 0.3–1.2%
Die PARTEI (NI) 0.0% 0.4% 0.3–0.7% 0.2–0.8% 0.2–0.9% 0.2–1.0%
Basisdemokratische Partei Deutschland (*) 0.0% 0.2% 0.1–0.4% 0.1–0.4% 0.0–0.5% 0.0–0.6%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Alternative für Deutschland (ESN) 0 25 23–26 23–26 22–26 22–26
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands (EPP) 0 21 19–21 19–21 19–22 18–23
Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands (S&D) 0 13 12–14 12–14 12–15 12–16
Bündnis 90/Die Grünen (Greens/EFA) 0 11 10–12 10–12 10–12 10–13
Die Linke (GUE/NGL) 0 10 9–10 9–10 9–10 8–12
Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern (EPP) 0 5 5–6 5–6 5–6 4–7
Bündnis Sahra Wagenknecht (NI) 0 5 5–6 4–6 4–6 4–6
Freie Demokratische Partei (RE) 0 3 3 2–3 2–4 2–4
Freie Wähler (RE) 0 1 1–2 1–2 1–2 1–2
Partei Mensch Umwelt Tierschutz (GUE/NGL) 0 1 1 1 1 0–2
Volt Europa (Greens/EFA) 0 1 0–1 0–1 0–1 0–1
Die PARTEI (NI) 0 0 0–1 0–1 0–1 0–1
Basisdemokratische Partei Deutschland (*) 0 0 0 0 0 0

Alternative für Deutschland (ESN)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Alternative für Deutschland (ESN) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 0% 100%  
4 0% 100%  
5 0% 100%  
6 0% 100%  
7 0% 100%  
8 0% 100%  
9 0% 100%  
10 0% 100%  
11 0% 100%  
12 0% 100%  
13 0% 100%  
14 0% 100%  
15 0% 100%  
16 0% 100%  
17 0% 100%  
18 0% 100%  
19 0% 100%  
20 0% 100%  
21 0.3% 100%  
22 4% 99.7%  
23 16% 96%  
24 20% 80%  
25 11% 60% Median
26 49% 50%  
27 0.2% 0.2%  
28 0.1% 0.1%  
29 0% 0%  

Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands (EPP)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands (EPP) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 0% 100%  
4 0% 100%  
5 0% 100%  
6 0% 100%  
7 0% 100%  
8 0% 100%  
9 0% 100%  
10 0% 100%  
11 0% 100%  
12 0% 100%  
13 0% 100%  
14 0% 100%  
15 0% 100%  
16 0% 100%  
17 0% 100%  
18 2% 100%  
19 11% 98%  
20 12% 87%  
21 70% 75% Median
22 4% 5%  
23 0.5% 0.6%  
24 0.1% 0.1%  
25 0% 0%  

Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands (S&D)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands (S&D) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 0% 100%  
4 0% 100%  
5 0% 100%  
6 0% 100%  
7 0% 100%  
8 0% 100%  
9 0% 100%  
10 0% 100%  
11 0.5% 100%  
12 25% 99.5%  
13 54% 75% Median
14 16% 20%  
15 3% 4%  
16 1.4% 1.4%  
17 0% 0%  

Bündnis 90/Die Grünen (Greens/EFA)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Bündnis 90/Die Grünen (Greens/EFA) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 0% 100%  
4 0% 100%  
5 0% 100%  
6 0% 100%  
7 0% 100%  
8 0% 100%  
9 0.1% 100%  
10 43% 99.9%  
11 35% 57% Median
12 20% 22%  
13 2% 2%  
14 0.2% 0.2%  
15 0% 0%  

Die Linke (GUE/NGL)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Die Linke (GUE/NGL) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 0% 100%  
4 0% 100%  
5 0% 100%  
6 0% 100%  
7 0% 100%  
8 0.9% 100%  
9 34% 99.1%  
10 64% 65% Median
11 1.3% 2%  
12 0.6% 0.6%  
13 0% 0%  

Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern (EPP)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern (EPP) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 0% 100%  
4 2% 100%  
5 76% 98% Median
6 21% 22%  
7 0.8% 0.8%  
8 0% 0%  

Bündnis Sahra Wagenknecht (NI)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Bündnis Sahra Wagenknecht (NI) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 0.1% 100%  
4 6% 99.9%  
5 76% 94% Median
6 18% 18%  
7 0% 0%  

Freie Demokratische Partei (RE)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Freie Demokratische Partei (RE) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 9% 100%  
3 88% 91% Median
4 3% 3%  
5 0% 0%  

Freie Wähler (RE)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Freie Wähler (RE) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 85% 100% Median
2 15% 15%  
3 0% 0%  

Partei Mensch Umwelt Tierschutz (GUE/NGL)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Partei Mensch Umwelt Tierschutz (GUE/NGL) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 2% 100% Last Result
1 98% 98% Median
2 0.9% 0.9%  
3 0% 0%  

Volt Europa (Greens/EFA)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Volt Europa (Greens/EFA) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 49% 100% Last Result
1 51% 51% Median
2 0.2% 0.2%  
3 0% 0%  

Die PARTEI (NI)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Die PARTEI (NI) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 83% 100% Last Result, Median
1 17% 17%  
2 0% 0%  

Basisdemokratische Partei Deutschland (*)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Basisdemokratische Partei Deutschland (*) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 99.6% 100% Last Result, Median
1 0.4% 0.4%  
2 0% 0%  

Coalitions

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Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median Majority? 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Alternative für Deutschland (ESN) 0 25 0% 23–26 23–26 22–26 22–26
Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands (S&D) 0 13 0% 12–14 12–14 12–15 12–16
Bündnis Sahra Wagenknecht (NI) – Die PARTEI (NI) 0 5 0% 5–6 5–6 4–6 4–7
Freie Demokratische Partei (RE) – Freie Wähler (RE) 0 4 0% 4–5 3–5 3–5 3–5

Alternative für Deutschland (ESN)

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 0% 100%  
4 0% 100%  
5 0% 100%  
6 0% 100%  
7 0% 100%  
8 0% 100%  
9 0% 100%  
10 0% 100%  
11 0% 100%  
12 0% 100%  
13 0% 100%  
14 0% 100%  
15 0% 100%  
16 0% 100%  
17 0% 100%  
18 0% 100%  
19 0% 100%  
20 0% 100%  
21 0.3% 100%  
22 4% 99.7%  
23 16% 96%  
24 20% 80%  
25 11% 60% Median
26 49% 50%  
27 0.2% 0.2%  
28 0.1% 0.1%  
29 0% 0%  

Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands (S&D)

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 0% 100%  
4 0% 100%  
5 0% 100%  
6 0% 100%  
7 0% 100%  
8 0% 100%  
9 0% 100%  
10 0% 100%  
11 0.5% 100%  
12 25% 99.5%  
13 54% 75% Median
14 16% 20%  
15 3% 4%  
16 1.4% 1.4%  
17 0% 0%  

Bündnis Sahra Wagenknecht (NI) – Die PARTEI (NI)

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 0% 100%  
4 4% 100%  
5 64% 96% Median
6 31% 32%  
7 0.7% 0.7%  
8 0% 0%  

Freie Demokratische Partei (RE) – Freie Wähler (RE)

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 8% 100%  
4 74% 92% Median
5 17% 18%  
6 0.4% 0.4%  
7 0% 0%  

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

Calculations