Opinion Poll by INSA and YouGov for BILD, 29 August–1 September 2025

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Alternative für Deutschland (ESN) 0.0% 25.0% 23.8–26.3% 23.4–26.6% 23.2–26.9% 22.6–27.6%
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands (EPP) 0.0% 19.0% 17.9–20.2% 17.6–20.5% 17.3–20.8% 16.8–21.4%
Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands (S&D) 0.0% 14.5% 13.5–15.6% 13.3–15.9% 13.0–16.1% 12.6–16.7%
Die Linke (GUE/NGL) 0.0% 11.0% 10.1–11.9% 9.9–12.2% 9.7–12.4% 9.3–12.9%
Bündnis 90/Die Grünen (Greens/EFA) 0.0% 11.0% 10.1–11.9% 9.9–12.2% 9.7–12.4% 9.3–12.9%
Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern (EPP) 0.0% 6.5% 5.8–7.3% 5.6–7.5% 5.5–7.7% 5.2–8.0%
Bündnis Sahra Wagenknecht (NI) 0.0% 4.0% 3.5–4.6% 3.3–4.8% 3.2–5.0% 3.0–5.3%
Freie Demokratische Partei (RE) 0.0% 3.5% 3.0–4.1% 2.9–4.3% 2.8–4.4% 2.6–4.7%
Freie Wähler (RE) 0.0% 1.9% 1.6–2.4% 1.5–2.5% 1.4–2.6% 1.2–2.8%
Partei Mensch Umwelt Tierschutz (GUE/NGL) 0.0% 1.2% 0.9–1.6% 0.9–1.7% 0.8–1.8% 0.7–2.0%
Volt Europa (Greens/EFA) 0.0% 0.8% 0.6–1.2% 0.6–1.3% 0.5–1.4% 0.4–1.5%
Die PARTEI (NI) 0.0% 0.6% 0.4–0.9% 0.4–1.0% 0.3–1.1% 0.3–1.2%
Basisdemokratische Partei Deutschland (*) 0.0% 0.2% 0.1–0.4% 0.1–0.5% 0.1–0.5% 0.0–0.6%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Alternative für Deutschland (ESN) 0 24 23–25 22–26 22–26 21–26
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands (EPP) 0 18 17–19 16–19 16–20 16–20
Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands (S&D) 0 14 13–15 13–15 13–15 12–16
Die Linke (GUE/NGL) 0 10 9–11 9–11 9–12 9–12
Bündnis 90/Die Grünen (Greens/EFA) 0 10 9–12 9–12 9–12 9–12
Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern (EPP) 0 6 6–7 6–7 5–7 5–8
Bündnis Sahra Wagenknecht (NI) 0 4 3–4 3–5 3–5 3–5
Freie Demokratische Partei (RE) 0 3 3–4 3–4 3–4 2–5
Freie Wähler (RE) 0 2 2 2 1–3 1–3
Partei Mensch Umwelt Tierschutz (GUE/NGL) 0 1 1–2 1–2 1–2 1–2
Volt Europa (Greens/EFA) 0 1 1 1 1 0–1
Die PARTEI (NI) 0 1 0–1 0–1 0–1 0–1
Basisdemokratische Partei Deutschland (*) 0 0 0 0–1 0–1 0–1

Alternative für Deutschland (ESN)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Alternative für Deutschland (ESN) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 0% 100%  
4 0% 100%  
5 0% 100%  
6 0% 100%  
7 0% 100%  
8 0% 100%  
9 0% 100%  
10 0% 100%  
11 0% 100%  
12 0% 100%  
13 0% 100%  
14 0% 100%  
15 0% 100%  
16 0% 100%  
17 0% 100%  
18 0% 100%  
19 0% 100%  
20 0% 100%  
21 0.8% 100%  
22 4% 99.2%  
23 28% 95%  
24 43% 67% Median
25 15% 24%  
26 8% 9%  
27 0.4% 0.4%  
28 0% 0%  

Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands (EPP)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands (EPP) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 0% 100%  
4 0% 100%  
5 0% 100%  
6 0% 100%  
7 0% 100%  
8 0% 100%  
9 0% 100%  
10 0% 100%  
11 0% 100%  
12 0% 100%  
13 0% 100%  
14 0% 100%  
15 0% 100%  
16 9% 100%  
17 7% 91%  
18 63% 84% Median
19 18% 22%  
20 3% 3%  
21 0.3% 0.3%  
22 0% 0%  

Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands (S&D)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands (S&D) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 0% 100%  
4 0% 100%  
5 0% 100%  
6 0% 100%  
7 0% 100%  
8 0% 100%  
9 0% 100%  
10 0% 100%  
11 0% 100%  
12 2% 100%  
13 44% 98%  
14 28% 54% Median
15 24% 26%  
16 1.5% 2%  
17 0.1% 0.1%  
18 0% 0%  

Die Linke (GUE/NGL)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Die Linke (GUE/NGL) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 0% 100%  
4 0% 100%  
5 0% 100%  
6 0% 100%  
7 0% 100%  
8 0.1% 100%  
9 10% 99.9%  
10 70% 90% Median
11 15% 20%  
12 4% 5%  
13 0.1% 0.1%  
14 0% 0%  

Bündnis 90/Die Grünen (Greens/EFA)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Bündnis 90/Die Grünen (Greens/EFA) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 0% 100%  
4 0% 100%  
5 0% 100%  
6 0% 100%  
7 0% 100%  
8 0.4% 100%  
9 13% 99.6%  
10 45% 86% Median
11 29% 42%  
12 12% 12%  
13 0.1% 0.1%  
14 0% 0%  

Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern (EPP)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern (EPP) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 0% 100%  
4 0.1% 100%  
5 3% 99.9%  
6 51% 97% Median
7 45% 45%  
8 0.6% 0.6%  
9 0% 0%  

Bündnis Sahra Wagenknecht (NI)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Bündnis Sahra Wagenknecht (NI) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 19% 100%  
4 73% 81% Median
5 8% 8%  
6 0% 0%  

Freie Demokratische Partei (RE)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Freie Demokratische Partei (RE) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0.8% 100%  
3 68% 99.2% Median
4 30% 31%  
5 1.2% 1.2%  
6 0% 0%  

Freie Wähler (RE)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Freie Wähler (RE) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 4% 100%  
2 91% 96% Median
3 4% 4%  
4 0% 0%  

Partei Mensch Umwelt Tierschutz (GUE/NGL)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Partei Mensch Umwelt Tierschutz (GUE/NGL) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 74% 100% Median
2 26% 26%  
3 0% 0%  

Volt Europa (Greens/EFA)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Volt Europa (Greens/EFA) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0.8% 100% Last Result
1 99.0% 99.2% Median
2 0.2% 0.2%  
3 0% 0%  

Die PARTEI (NI)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Die PARTEI (NI) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 20% 100% Last Result
1 80% 80% Median
2 0% 0%  

Basisdemokratische Partei Deutschland (*)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Basisdemokratische Partei Deutschland (*) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 94% 100% Last Result, Median
1 6% 6%  
2 0% 0%  

Coalitions

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Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median Majority? 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Alternative für Deutschland (ESN) 0 24 0% 23–25 22–26 22–26 21–26
Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands (S&D) 0 14 0% 13–15 13–15 13–15 12–16
Bündnis Sahra Wagenknecht (NI) – Die PARTEI (NI) 0 5 0% 4–5 4–6 4–6 3–6
Freie Demokratische Partei (RE) – Freie Wähler (RE) 0 5 0% 5–6 5–6 4–6 4–7

Alternative für Deutschland (ESN)

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 0% 100%  
4 0% 100%  
5 0% 100%  
6 0% 100%  
7 0% 100%  
8 0% 100%  
9 0% 100%  
10 0% 100%  
11 0% 100%  
12 0% 100%  
13 0% 100%  
14 0% 100%  
15 0% 100%  
16 0% 100%  
17 0% 100%  
18 0% 100%  
19 0% 100%  
20 0% 100%  
21 0.8% 100%  
22 4% 99.2%  
23 28% 95%  
24 43% 67% Median
25 15% 24%  
26 8% 9%  
27 0.4% 0.4%  
28 0% 0%  

Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands (S&D)

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 0% 100%  
4 0% 100%  
5 0% 100%  
6 0% 100%  
7 0% 100%  
8 0% 100%  
9 0% 100%  
10 0% 100%  
11 0% 100%  
12 2% 100%  
13 44% 98%  
14 28% 54% Median
15 24% 26%  
16 1.5% 2%  
17 0.1% 0.1%  
18 0% 0%  

Bündnis Sahra Wagenknecht (NI) – Die PARTEI (NI)

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 2% 100%  
4 32% 98%  
5 58% 65% Median
6 7% 7%  
7 0% 0%  

Freie Demokratische Partei (RE) – Freie Wähler (RE)

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 0% 100%  
4 3% 100%  
5 64% 97% Median
6 32% 33%  
7 1.4% 1.4%  
8 0% 0%  

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

Calculations