Opinion Poll by Infratest dimap for ARD, 1–2 September 2025
Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information
Voting Intentions
Confidence Intervals
| Party | Last Result | Poll Result | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alternative für Deutschland (ESN) | 0.0% | 25.0% | 23.6–26.6% | 23.1–27.1% | 22.8–27.4% | 22.1–28.2% |
| Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands (EPP) | 0.0% | 21.3% | 19.9–22.8% | 19.5–23.2% | 19.2–23.6% | 18.5–24.3% |
| Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands (S&D) | 0.0% | 14.0% | 12.8–15.3% | 12.5–15.7% | 12.3–16.0% | 11.7–16.6% |
| Bündnis 90/Die Grünen (Greens/EFA) | 0.0% | 11.0% | 10.0–12.2% | 9.7–12.5% | 9.4–12.8% | 9.0–13.4% |
| Die Linke (GUE/NGL) | 0.0% | 10.0% | 9.0–11.1% | 8.7–11.4% | 8.5–11.7% | 8.0–12.3% |
| Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern (EPP) | 0.0% | 5.7% | 4.9–6.6% | 4.7–6.8% | 4.5–7.0% | 4.2–7.5% |
| Bündnis Sahra Wagenknecht (NI) | 0.0% | 4.0% | 3.4–4.8% | 3.2–5.0% | 3.1–5.2% | 2.8–5.6% |
| Freie Demokratische Partei (RE) | 0.0% | 3.0% | 2.5–3.7% | 2.3–3.9% | 2.2–4.0% | 2.0–4.4% |
| Freie Wähler (RE) | 0.0% | 2.0% | 1.6–2.6% | 1.5–2.8% | 1.4–2.9% | 1.2–3.2% |
| Partei Mensch Umwelt Tierschutz (GUE/NGL) | 0.0% | 1.3% | 0.9–1.8% | 0.9–1.9% | 0.8–2.0% | 0.7–2.3% |
| Volt Europa (Greens/EFA) | 0.0% | 1.0% | 0.7–1.4% | 0.6–1.5% | 0.6–1.7% | 0.5–1.9% |
| Die PARTEI (NI) | 0.0% | 0.7% | 0.5–1.1% | 0.4–1.2% | 0.4–1.3% | 0.3–1.5% |
| Basisdemokratische Partei Deutschland (*) | 0.0% | 0.2% | 0.1–0.5% | 0.1–0.6% | 0.1–0.7% | 0.0–0.8% |
Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.
Seats
Confidence Intervals
| Party | Last Result | Median | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alternative für Deutschland (ESN) | 0 | 23 | 22–25 | 22–25 | 22–26 | 21–27 |
| Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands (EPP) | 0 | 21 | 19–22 | 19–23 | 19–23 | 18–23 |
| Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands (S&D) | 0 | 14 | 12–15 | 11–16 | 11–16 | 11–16 |
| Bündnis 90/Die Grünen (Greens/EFA) | 0 | 10 | 10–11 | 9–11 | 9–12 | 8–13 |
| Die Linke (GUE/NGL) | 0 | 10 | 9–11 | 8–11 | 8–11 | 7–11 |
| Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern (EPP) | 0 | 6 | 5–6 | 4–7 | 4–7 | 4–7 |
| Bündnis Sahra Wagenknecht (NI) | 0 | 4 | 3–5 | 3–5 | 3–5 | 2–5 |
| Freie Demokratische Partei (RE) | 0 | 3 | 2–4 | 2–4 | 2–4 | 2–5 |
| Freie Wähler (RE) | 0 | 2 | 2 | 1–3 | 1–3 | 1–3 |
| Partei Mensch Umwelt Tierschutz (GUE/NGL) | 0 | 1 | 1–2 | 1–2 | 1–2 | 1–2 |
| Volt Europa (Greens/EFA) | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0–2 |
| Die PARTEI (NI) | 0 | 1 | 0–1 | 0–1 | 0–1 | 0–1 |
| Basisdemokratische Partei Deutschland (*) | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0–1 | 0–1 |
Alternative für Deutschland (ESN)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Alternative für Deutschland (ESN) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 100% | |
| 2 | 0% | 100% | |
| 3 | 0% | 100% | |
| 4 | 0% | 100% | |
| 5 | 0% | 100% | |
| 6 | 0% | 100% | |
| 7 | 0% | 100% | |
| 8 | 0% | 100% | |
| 9 | 0% | 100% | |
| 10 | 0% | 100% | |
| 11 | 0% | 100% | |
| 12 | 0% | 100% | |
| 13 | 0% | 100% | |
| 14 | 0% | 100% | |
| 15 | 0% | 100% | |
| 16 | 0% | 100% | |
| 17 | 0% | 100% | |
| 18 | 0% | 100% | |
| 19 | 0% | 100% | |
| 20 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 21 | 2% | 99.9% | |
| 22 | 43% | 98% | |
| 23 | 25% | 55% | Median |
| 24 | 18% | 30% | |
| 25 | 9% | 12% | |
| 26 | 2% | 3% | |
| 27 | 1.1% | 1.1% | |
| 28 | 0% | 0% |
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands (EPP)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands (EPP) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 100% | |
| 2 | 0% | 100% | |
| 3 | 0% | 100% | |
| 4 | 0% | 100% | |
| 5 | 0% | 100% | |
| 6 | 0% | 100% | |
| 7 | 0% | 100% | |
| 8 | 0% | 100% | |
| 9 | 0% | 100% | |
| 10 | 0% | 100% | |
| 11 | 0% | 100% | |
| 12 | 0% | 100% | |
| 13 | 0% | 100% | |
| 14 | 0% | 100% | |
| 15 | 0% | 100% | |
| 16 | 0% | 100% | |
| 17 | 0.4% | 100% | |
| 18 | 2% | 99.6% | |
| 19 | 36% | 98% | |
| 20 | 5% | 62% | |
| 21 | 30% | 57% | Median |
| 22 | 18% | 27% | |
| 23 | 9% | 9% | |
| 24 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 25 | 0% | 0% |
Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands (S&D)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands (S&D) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 100% | |
| 2 | 0% | 100% | |
| 3 | 0% | 100% | |
| 4 | 0% | 100% | |
| 5 | 0% | 100% | |
| 6 | 0% | 100% | |
| 7 | 0% | 100% | |
| 8 | 0% | 100% | |
| 9 | 0% | 100% | |
| 10 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 11 | 7% | 99.9% | |
| 12 | 9% | 93% | |
| 13 | 18% | 85% | |
| 14 | 53% | 66% | Median |
| 15 | 8% | 14% | |
| 16 | 6% | 6% | |
| 17 | 0% | 0% |
Bündnis 90/Die Grünen (Greens/EFA)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Bündnis 90/Die Grünen (Greens/EFA) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 100% | |
| 2 | 0% | 100% | |
| 3 | 0% | 100% | |
| 4 | 0% | 100% | |
| 5 | 0% | 100% | |
| 6 | 0% | 100% | |
| 7 | 0% | 100% | |
| 8 | 0.6% | 100% | |
| 9 | 7% | 99.4% | |
| 10 | 66% | 92% | Median |
| 11 | 22% | 26% | |
| 12 | 4% | 4% | |
| 13 | 0.5% | 0.5% | |
| 14 | 0% | 0% |
Die Linke (GUE/NGL)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Die Linke (GUE/NGL) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 100% | |
| 2 | 0% | 100% | |
| 3 | 0% | 100% | |
| 4 | 0% | 100% | |
| 5 | 0% | 100% | |
| 6 | 0% | 100% | |
| 7 | 1.2% | 100% | |
| 8 | 4% | 98.8% | |
| 9 | 22% | 95% | |
| 10 | 56% | 72% | Median |
| 11 | 16% | 16% | |
| 12 | 0.2% | 0.3% | |
| 13 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 14 | 0% | 0% |
Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern (EPP)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern (EPP) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 100% | |
| 2 | 0% | 100% | |
| 3 | 0% | 100% | |
| 4 | 6% | 100% | |
| 5 | 27% | 94% | |
| 6 | 60% | 67% | Median |
| 7 | 7% | 7% | |
| 8 | 0% | 0% |
Bündnis Sahra Wagenknecht (NI)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Bündnis Sahra Wagenknecht (NI) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 100% | |
| 2 | 0.8% | 100% | |
| 3 | 29% | 99.2% | |
| 4 | 59% | 71% | Median |
| 5 | 12% | 12% | |
| 6 | 0.2% | 0.2% | |
| 7 | 0% | 0% |
Freie Demokratische Partei (RE)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Freie Demokratische Partei (RE) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 100% | |
| 2 | 17% | 100% | |
| 3 | 48% | 83% | Median |
| 4 | 34% | 35% | |
| 5 | 0.5% | 0.5% | |
| 6 | 0% | 0% |
Freie Wähler (RE)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Freie Wähler (RE) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 6% | 100% | |
| 2 | 89% | 94% | Median |
| 3 | 5% | 5% | |
| 4 | 0% | 0% |
Partei Mensch Umwelt Tierschutz (GUE/NGL)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Partei Mensch Umwelt Tierschutz (GUE/NGL) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 59% | 100% | Median |
| 2 | 41% | 41% | |
| 3 | 0% | 0% |
Volt Europa (Greens/EFA)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Volt Europa (Greens/EFA) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0.5% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 98% | 99.5% | Median |
| 2 | 2% | 2% | |
| 3 | 0% | 0% |
Die PARTEI (NI)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Die PARTEI (NI) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 17% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 82% | 83% | Median |
| 2 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 3 | 0% | 0% |
Basisdemokratische Partei Deutschland (*)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Basisdemokratische Partei Deutschland (*) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 96% | 100% | Last Result, Median |
| 1 | 4% | 4% | |
| 2 | 0% | 0% |
Coalitions
Confidence Intervals
| Coalition | Last Result | Median | Majority? | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alternative für Deutschland (ESN) | 0 | 23 | 0% | 22–25 | 22–25 | 22–26 | 21–27 |
| Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands (S&D) | 0 | 14 | 0% | 12–15 | 11–16 | 11–16 | 11–16 |
| Freie Demokratische Partei (RE) – Freie Wähler (RE) | 0 | 5 | 0% | 4–6 | 4–6 | 4–7 | 3–7 |
| Bündnis Sahra Wagenknecht (NI) – Die PARTEI (NI) | 0 | 5 | 0% | 4–5 | 4–6 | 3–6 | 3–6 |
Alternative für Deutschland (ESN)
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 100% | |
| 2 | 0% | 100% | |
| 3 | 0% | 100% | |
| 4 | 0% | 100% | |
| 5 | 0% | 100% | |
| 6 | 0% | 100% | |
| 7 | 0% | 100% | |
| 8 | 0% | 100% | |
| 9 | 0% | 100% | |
| 10 | 0% | 100% | |
| 11 | 0% | 100% | |
| 12 | 0% | 100% | |
| 13 | 0% | 100% | |
| 14 | 0% | 100% | |
| 15 | 0% | 100% | |
| 16 | 0% | 100% | |
| 17 | 0% | 100% | |
| 18 | 0% | 100% | |
| 19 | 0% | 100% | |
| 20 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 21 | 2% | 99.9% | |
| 22 | 43% | 98% | |
| 23 | 25% | 55% | Median |
| 24 | 18% | 30% | |
| 25 | 9% | 12% | |
| 26 | 2% | 3% | |
| 27 | 1.1% | 1.1% | |
| 28 | 0% | 0% |
Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands (S&D)
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 100% | |
| 2 | 0% | 100% | |
| 3 | 0% | 100% | |
| 4 | 0% | 100% | |
| 5 | 0% | 100% | |
| 6 | 0% | 100% | |
| 7 | 0% | 100% | |
| 8 | 0% | 100% | |
| 9 | 0% | 100% | |
| 10 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 11 | 7% | 99.9% | |
| 12 | 9% | 93% | |
| 13 | 18% | 85% | |
| 14 | 53% | 66% | Median |
| 15 | 8% | 14% | |
| 16 | 6% | 6% | |
| 17 | 0% | 0% |
Freie Demokratische Partei (RE) – Freie Wähler (RE)
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 100% | |
| 2 | 0% | 100% | |
| 3 | 1.2% | 100% | |
| 4 | 19% | 98.8% | |
| 5 | 43% | 80% | Median |
| 6 | 35% | 37% | |
| 7 | 3% | 3% | |
| 8 | 0% | 0% |
Bündnis Sahra Wagenknecht (NI) – Die PARTEI (NI)
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 100% | |
| 2 | 0% | 100% | |
| 3 | 3% | 100% | |
| 4 | 36% | 97% | |
| 5 | 56% | 61% | Median |
| 6 | 6% | 6% | |
| 7 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 8 | 0% | 0% |
Technical Information
Opinion Poll
- Polling firm: Infratest dimap
- Commissioner(s): ARD
- Fieldwork period: 1–2 September 2025
Calculations
- Sample size: 1342
- Simulations done: 2,097,152
- Error estimate: 1.40%