Opinion Poll by pollytix, 2 September 2025
Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information
Voting Intentions
Confidence Intervals
| Party | Last Result | Poll Result | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alternative für Deutschland (ESN) | 0.0% | 25.0% | 23.6–26.4% | 23.2–26.9% | 22.9–27.2% | 22.2–27.9% |
| Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands (EPP) | 0.0% | 21.3% | 20.0–22.7% | 19.7–23.1% | 19.3–23.5% | 18.7–24.1% |
| Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands (S&D) | 0.0% | 16.0% | 14.8–17.2% | 14.5–17.6% | 14.2–17.9% | 13.7–18.5% |
| Bündnis 90/Die Grünen (Greens/EFA) | 0.0% | 11.0% | 10.1–12.1% | 9.8–12.4% | 9.5–12.7% | 9.1–13.2% |
| Die Linke (GUE/NGL) | 0.0% | 9.0% | 8.1–10.0% | 7.9–10.3% | 7.7–10.5% | 7.3–11.1% |
| Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern (EPP) | 0.0% | 5.7% | 5.0–6.5% | 4.8–6.8% | 4.6–7.0% | 4.3–7.4% |
| Bündnis Sahra Wagenknecht (NI) | 0.0% | 5.0% | 4.4–5.8% | 4.2–6.0% | 4.0–6.2% | 3.7–6.6% |
| Freie Demokratische Partei (RE) | 0.0% | 4.0% | 3.4–4.7% | 3.2–4.9% | 3.1–5.1% | 2.9–5.5% |
| Freie Wähler (RE) | 0.0% | 1.0% | 0.8–1.5% | 0.7–1.6% | 0.6–1.7% | 0.5–1.9% |
| Partei Mensch Umwelt Tierschutz (GUE/NGL) | 0.0% | 0.7% | 0.5–1.0% | 0.4–1.1% | 0.4–1.2% | 0.3–1.4% |
| Volt Europa (Greens/EFA) | 0.0% | 0.5% | 0.3–0.8% | 0.3–0.9% | 0.2–0.9% | 0.2–1.1% |
| Die PARTEI (NI) | 0.0% | 0.3% | 0.2–0.6% | 0.2–0.7% | 0.1–0.8% | 0.1–0.9% |
| Basisdemokratische Partei Deutschland (*) | 0.0% | 0.1% | 0.1–0.4% | 0.0–0.4% | 0.0–0.5% | 0.0–0.6% |
Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.
Seats
Confidence Intervals
| Party | Last Result | Median | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alternative für Deutschland (ESN) | 0 | 26 | 23–26 | 22–26 | 22–26 | 21–26 |
| Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands (EPP) | 0 | 20 | 19–21 | 18–21 | 18–22 | 18–23 |
| Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands (S&D) | 0 | 15 | 15–16 | 15–17 | 14–17 | 13–18 |
| Bündnis 90/Die Grünen (Greens/EFA) | 0 | 12 | 10–12 | 10–12 | 10–12 | 9–12 |
| Die Linke (GUE/NGL) | 0 | 8 | 8–9 | 8–9 | 7–10 | 7–10 |
| Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern (EPP) | 0 | 5 | 4–6 | 4–7 | 4–7 | 4–7 |
| Bündnis Sahra Wagenknecht (NI) | 0 | 4 | 4–5 | 4–6 | 4–6 | 4–6 |
| Freie Demokratische Partei (RE) | 0 | 4 | 4 | 3–5 | 3–5 | 3–5 |
| Freie Wähler (RE) | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1–2 | 1–2 |
| Partei Mensch Umwelt Tierschutz (GUE/NGL) | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0–1 | 0–1 | 0–1 |
| Volt Europa (Greens/EFA) | 0 | 0 | 0–1 | 0–1 | 0–1 | 0–1 |
| Die PARTEI (NI) | 0 | 0 | 0–1 | 0–1 | 0–1 | 0–1 |
| Basisdemokratische Partei Deutschland (*) | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0–1 |
Alternative für Deutschland (ESN)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Alternative für Deutschland (ESN) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 100% | |
| 2 | 0% | 100% | |
| 3 | 0% | 100% | |
| 4 | 0% | 100% | |
| 5 | 0% | 100% | |
| 6 | 0% | 100% | |
| 7 | 0% | 100% | |
| 8 | 0% | 100% | |
| 9 | 0% | 100% | |
| 10 | 0% | 100% | |
| 11 | 0% | 100% | |
| 12 | 0% | 100% | |
| 13 | 0% | 100% | |
| 14 | 0% | 100% | |
| 15 | 0% | 100% | |
| 16 | 0% | 100% | |
| 17 | 0% | 100% | |
| 18 | 0% | 100% | |
| 19 | 0% | 100% | |
| 20 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 21 | 0.4% | 99.9% | |
| 22 | 6% | 99.4% | |
| 23 | 10% | 93% | |
| 24 | 5% | 83% | |
| 25 | 16% | 78% | |
| 26 | 62% | 62% | Median |
| 27 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 28 | 0% | 0% |
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands (EPP)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands (EPP) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 100% | |
| 2 | 0% | 100% | |
| 3 | 0% | 100% | |
| 4 | 0% | 100% | |
| 5 | 0% | 100% | |
| 6 | 0% | 100% | |
| 7 | 0% | 100% | |
| 8 | 0% | 100% | |
| 9 | 0% | 100% | |
| 10 | 0% | 100% | |
| 11 | 0% | 100% | |
| 12 | 0% | 100% | |
| 13 | 0% | 100% | |
| 14 | 0% | 100% | |
| 15 | 0% | 100% | |
| 16 | 0% | 100% | |
| 17 | 0.5% | 100% | |
| 18 | 6% | 99.5% | |
| 19 | 7% | 94% | |
| 20 | 77% | 87% | Median |
| 21 | 8% | 10% | |
| 22 | 1.5% | 3% | |
| 23 | 1.5% | 1.5% | |
| 24 | 0% | 0% |
Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands (S&D)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands (S&D) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 100% | |
| 2 | 0% | 100% | |
| 3 | 0% | 100% | |
| 4 | 0% | 100% | |
| 5 | 0% | 100% | |
| 6 | 0% | 100% | |
| 7 | 0% | 100% | |
| 8 | 0% | 100% | |
| 9 | 0% | 100% | |
| 10 | 0% | 100% | |
| 11 | 0% | 100% | |
| 12 | 0% | 100% | |
| 13 | 1.3% | 100% | |
| 14 | 3% | 98.7% | |
| 15 | 70% | 96% | Median |
| 16 | 18% | 25% | |
| 17 | 6% | 7% | |
| 18 | 0.6% | 0.6% | |
| 19 | 0% | 0% |
Bündnis 90/Die Grünen (Greens/EFA)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Bündnis 90/Die Grünen (Greens/EFA) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 100% | |
| 2 | 0% | 100% | |
| 3 | 0% | 100% | |
| 4 | 0% | 100% | |
| 5 | 0% | 100% | |
| 6 | 0% | 100% | |
| 7 | 0% | 100% | |
| 8 | 0% | 100% | |
| 9 | 2% | 100% | |
| 10 | 19% | 98% | |
| 11 | 15% | 79% | |
| 12 | 63% | 64% | Median |
| 13 | 0.5% | 0.5% | |
| 14 | 0% | 0% |
Die Linke (GUE/NGL)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Die Linke (GUE/NGL) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 100% | |
| 2 | 0% | 100% | |
| 3 | 0% | 100% | |
| 4 | 0% | 100% | |
| 5 | 0% | 100% | |
| 6 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 7 | 2% | 99.9% | |
| 8 | 69% | 97% | Median |
| 9 | 25% | 28% | |
| 10 | 3% | 3% | |
| 11 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 12 | 0% | 0% |
Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern (EPP)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern (EPP) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 100% | |
| 2 | 0% | 100% | |
| 3 | 0% | 100% | |
| 4 | 12% | 100% | |
| 5 | 67% | 88% | Median |
| 6 | 15% | 21% | |
| 7 | 5% | 6% | |
| 8 | 0% | 0% |
Bündnis Sahra Wagenknecht (NI)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Bündnis Sahra Wagenknecht (NI) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 100% | |
| 2 | 0% | 100% | |
| 3 | 0.2% | 100% | |
| 4 | 66% | 99.8% | Median |
| 5 | 26% | 34% | |
| 6 | 7% | 7% | |
| 7 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 8 | 0% | 0% |
Freie Demokratische Partei (RE)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Freie Demokratische Partei (RE) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 100% | |
| 2 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 3 | 9% | 99.9% | |
| 4 | 86% | 91% | Median |
| 5 | 5% | 5% | |
| 6 | 0.2% | 0.2% | |
| 7 | 0% | 0% |
Freie Wähler (RE)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Freie Wähler (RE) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0.2% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 95% | 99.8% | Median |
| 2 | 5% | 5% | |
| 3 | 0% | 0% |
Partei Mensch Umwelt Tierschutz (GUE/NGL)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Partei Mensch Umwelt Tierschutz (GUE/NGL) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 92% | 92% | Median |
| 2 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 3 | 0% | 0% |
Volt Europa (Greens/EFA)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Volt Europa (Greens/EFA) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 74% | 100% | Last Result, Median |
| 1 | 26% | 26% | |
| 2 | 0% | 0% |
Die PARTEI (NI)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Die PARTEI (NI) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 89% | 100% | Last Result, Median |
| 1 | 11% | 11% | |
| 2 | 0% | 0% |
Basisdemokratische Partei Deutschland (*)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Basisdemokratische Partei Deutschland (*) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 99.1% | 100% | Last Result, Median |
| 1 | 0.9% | 0.9% | |
| 2 | 0% | 0% |
Coalitions
Confidence Intervals
| Coalition | Last Result | Median | Majority? | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alternative für Deutschland (ESN) | 0 | 26 | 0% | 23–26 | 22–26 | 22–26 | 21–26 |
| Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands (S&D) | 0 | 15 | 0% | 15–16 | 15–17 | 14–17 | 13–18 |
| Bündnis Sahra Wagenknecht (NI) – Die PARTEI (NI) | 0 | 4 | 0% | 4–6 | 4–6 | 4–7 | 4–7 |
| Freie Demokratische Partei (RE) – Freie Wähler (RE) | 0 | 5 | 0% | 5 | 4–6 | 4–6 | 4–6 |
Alternative für Deutschland (ESN)
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 100% | |
| 2 | 0% | 100% | |
| 3 | 0% | 100% | |
| 4 | 0% | 100% | |
| 5 | 0% | 100% | |
| 6 | 0% | 100% | |
| 7 | 0% | 100% | |
| 8 | 0% | 100% | |
| 9 | 0% | 100% | |
| 10 | 0% | 100% | |
| 11 | 0% | 100% | |
| 12 | 0% | 100% | |
| 13 | 0% | 100% | |
| 14 | 0% | 100% | |
| 15 | 0% | 100% | |
| 16 | 0% | 100% | |
| 17 | 0% | 100% | |
| 18 | 0% | 100% | |
| 19 | 0% | 100% | |
| 20 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 21 | 0.4% | 99.9% | |
| 22 | 6% | 99.4% | |
| 23 | 10% | 93% | |
| 24 | 5% | 83% | |
| 25 | 16% | 78% | |
| 26 | 62% | 62% | Median |
| 27 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 28 | 0% | 0% |
Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands (S&D)
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 100% | |
| 2 | 0% | 100% | |
| 3 | 0% | 100% | |
| 4 | 0% | 100% | |
| 5 | 0% | 100% | |
| 6 | 0% | 100% | |
| 7 | 0% | 100% | |
| 8 | 0% | 100% | |
| 9 | 0% | 100% | |
| 10 | 0% | 100% | |
| 11 | 0% | 100% | |
| 12 | 0% | 100% | |
| 13 | 1.3% | 100% | |
| 14 | 3% | 98.7% | |
| 15 | 70% | 96% | Median |
| 16 | 18% | 25% | |
| 17 | 6% | 7% | |
| 18 | 0.6% | 0.6% | |
| 19 | 0% | 0% |
Bündnis Sahra Wagenknecht (NI) – Die PARTEI (NI)
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 100% | |
| 2 | 0% | 100% | |
| 3 | 0.2% | 100% | |
| 4 | 64% | 99.8% | Median |
| 5 | 23% | 36% | |
| 6 | 11% | 14% | |
| 7 | 3% | 3% | |
| 8 | 0% | 0% |
Freie Demokratische Partei (RE) – Freie Wähler (RE)
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 100% | |
| 2 | 0% | 100% | |
| 3 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 4 | 5% | 99.9% | |
| 5 | 89% | 95% | Median |
| 6 | 6% | 6% | |
| 7 | 0.4% | 0.4% | |
| 8 | 0% | 0% |
Technical Information
Opinion Poll
- Polling firm: pollytix
- Commissioner(s): —
- Fieldwork period: 2 September 2025
Calculations
- Sample size: 1533
- Simulations done: 2,097,152
- Error estimate: 1.68%