Opinion Poll by INSA and YouGov for BILD, 5–8 September 2025

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Alternative für Deutschland (ESN) 0.0% 25.5% 24.3–26.8% 24.0–27.2% 23.7–27.5% 23.1–28.1%
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands (EPP) 0.0% 20.1% 19.0–21.3% 18.7–21.7% 18.4–22.0% 17.9–22.5%
Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands (S&D) 0.0% 14.5% 13.5–15.6% 13.3–15.9% 13.0–16.1% 12.6–16.6%
Bündnis 90/Die Grünen (Greens/EFA) 0.0% 11.0% 10.2–12.0% 9.9–12.2% 9.7–12.5% 9.3–12.9%
Die Linke (GUE/NGL) 0.0% 10.0% 9.2–10.9% 9.0–11.2% 8.8–11.4% 8.4–11.9%
Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern (EPP) 0.0% 5.4% 4.8–6.1% 4.6–6.3% 4.5–6.5% 4.2–6.8%
Bündnis Sahra Wagenknecht (NI) 0.0% 4.5% 3.9–5.1% 3.8–5.3% 3.7–5.5% 3.4–5.8%
Freie Demokratische Partei (RE) 0.0% 3.5% 3.0–4.1% 2.9–4.3% 2.8–4.4% 2.6–4.7%
Freie Wähler (RE) 0.0% 1.8% 1.5–2.3% 1.4–2.4% 1.3–2.5% 1.2–2.8%
Partei Mensch Umwelt Tierschutz (GUE/NGL) 0.0% 1.1% 0.9–1.5% 0.8–1.6% 0.8–1.7% 0.7–1.9%
Volt Europa (Greens/EFA) 0.0% 0.8% 0.6–1.2% 0.6–1.3% 0.5–1.4% 0.4–1.5%
Die PARTEI (NI) 0.0% 0.6% 0.4–0.9% 0.4–1.0% 0.3–1.1% 0.3–1.2%
Basisdemokratische Partei Deutschland (*) 0.0% 0.2% 0.1–0.4% 0.1–0.5% 0.1–0.5% 0.0–0.6%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Alternative für Deutschland (ESN) 0 24 24–26 23–26 22–27 22–27
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands (EPP) 0 19 18–21 18–21 17–21 17–22
Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands (S&D) 0 14 13–15 13–15 13–15 12–16
Bündnis 90/Die Grünen (Greens/EFA) 0 11 10–12 10–12 10–12 9–12
Die Linke (GUE/NGL) 0 9 9–11 9–11 8–11 8–11
Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern (EPP) 0 5 4–6 4–6 4–6 4–7
Bündnis Sahra Wagenknecht (NI) 0 4 4–5 4–5 4–5 3–5
Freie Demokratische Partei (RE) 0 3 3–4 3–4 3–4 3–4
Freie Wähler (RE) 0 2 2 1–2 1–3 1–3
Partei Mensch Umwelt Tierschutz (GUE/NGL) 0 1 1–2 1–2 1–2 1–2
Volt Europa (Greens/EFA) 0 1 1 1 1 0–1
Die PARTEI (NI) 0 1 0–1 0–1 0–1 0–1
Basisdemokratische Partei Deutschland (*) 0 0 0 0 0–1 0–1

Alternative für Deutschland (ESN)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Alternative für Deutschland (ESN) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 0% 100%  
4 0% 100%  
5 0% 100%  
6 0% 100%  
7 0% 100%  
8 0% 100%  
9 0% 100%  
10 0% 100%  
11 0% 100%  
12 0% 100%  
13 0% 100%  
14 0% 100%  
15 0% 100%  
16 0% 100%  
17 0% 100%  
18 0% 100%  
19 0% 100%  
20 0% 100%  
21 0.1% 100%  
22 4% 99.9%  
23 4% 96%  
24 53% 92% Median
25 28% 39%  
26 8% 11%  
27 3% 3%  
28 0.1% 0.1%  
29 0% 0%  

Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands (EPP)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands (EPP) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 0% 100%  
4 0% 100%  
5 0% 100%  
6 0% 100%  
7 0% 100%  
8 0% 100%  
9 0% 100%  
10 0% 100%  
11 0% 100%  
12 0% 100%  
13 0% 100%  
14 0% 100%  
15 0% 100%  
16 0% 100%  
17 3% 100%  
18 46% 97%  
19 29% 51% Median
20 11% 22%  
21 10% 11%  
22 0.5% 0.6%  
23 0% 0%  

Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands (S&D)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands (S&D) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 0% 100%  
4 0% 100%  
5 0% 100%  
6 0% 100%  
7 0% 100%  
8 0% 100%  
9 0% 100%  
10 0% 100%  
11 0.1% 100%  
12 1.1% 99.9%  
13 37% 98.9%  
14 35% 62% Median
15 26% 27%  
16 0.6% 0.9%  
17 0.2% 0.2%  
18 0% 0%  

Bündnis 90/Die Grünen (Greens/EFA)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Bündnis 90/Die Grünen (Greens/EFA) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 0% 100%  
4 0% 100%  
5 0% 100%  
6 0% 100%  
7 0% 100%  
8 0.1% 100%  
9 2% 99.9%  
10 37% 98%  
11 42% 60% Median
12 18% 18%  
13 0.1% 0.1%  
14 0% 0%  

Die Linke (GUE/NGL)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Die Linke (GUE/NGL) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 0% 100%  
4 0% 100%  
5 0% 100%  
6 0% 100%  
7 0.1% 100%  
8 4% 99.9%  
9 50% 96% Median
10 35% 46%  
11 11% 11%  
12 0.2% 0.2%  
13 0% 0%  

Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern (EPP)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern (EPP) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 0% 100%  
4 11% 100%  
5 59% 89% Median
6 28% 29%  
7 1.1% 1.1%  
8 0% 0%  

Bündnis Sahra Wagenknecht (NI)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Bündnis Sahra Wagenknecht (NI) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 2% 100%  
4 52% 98% Median
5 46% 46%  
6 0.2% 0.2%  
7 0% 0%  

Freie Demokratische Partei (RE)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Freie Demokratische Partei (RE) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0.4% 100%  
3 62% 99.6% Median
4 37% 37%  
5 0.4% 0.4%  
6 0% 0%  

Freie Wähler (RE)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Freie Wähler (RE) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 9% 100%  
2 88% 91% Median
3 3% 3%  
4 0% 0%  

Partei Mensch Umwelt Tierschutz (GUE/NGL)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Partei Mensch Umwelt Tierschutz (GUE/NGL) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 90% 100% Median
2 10% 10%  
3 0% 0%  

Volt Europa (Greens/EFA)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Volt Europa (Greens/EFA) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 1.0% 100% Last Result
1 98.8% 99.0% Median
2 0.2% 0.2%  
3 0% 0%  

Die PARTEI (NI)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Die PARTEI (NI) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 44% 100% Last Result
1 56% 56% Median
2 0% 0%  

Basisdemokratische Partei Deutschland (*)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Basisdemokratische Partei Deutschland (*) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 97% 100% Last Result, Median
1 3% 3%  
2 0% 0%  

Coalitions

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Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median Majority? 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Alternative für Deutschland (ESN) 0 24 0% 24–26 23–26 22–27 22–27
Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands (S&D) 0 14 0% 13–15 13–15 13–15 12–16
Bündnis Sahra Wagenknecht (NI) – Die PARTEI (NI) 0 5 0% 4–6 4–6 4–6 4–6
Freie Demokratische Partei (RE) – Freie Wähler (RE) 0 5 0% 5–6 4–6 4–6 4–7

Alternative für Deutschland (ESN)

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 0% 100%  
4 0% 100%  
5 0% 100%  
6 0% 100%  
7 0% 100%  
8 0% 100%  
9 0% 100%  
10 0% 100%  
11 0% 100%  
12 0% 100%  
13 0% 100%  
14 0% 100%  
15 0% 100%  
16 0% 100%  
17 0% 100%  
18 0% 100%  
19 0% 100%  
20 0% 100%  
21 0.1% 100%  
22 4% 99.9%  
23 4% 96%  
24 53% 92% Median
25 28% 39%  
26 8% 11%  
27 3% 3%  
28 0.1% 0.1%  
29 0% 0%  

Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands (S&D)

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 0% 100%  
4 0% 100%  
5 0% 100%  
6 0% 100%  
7 0% 100%  
8 0% 100%  
9 0% 100%  
10 0% 100%  
11 0.1% 100%  
12 1.1% 99.9%  
13 37% 98.9%  
14 35% 62% Median
15 26% 27%  
16 0.6% 0.9%  
17 0.2% 0.2%  
18 0% 0%  

Bündnis Sahra Wagenknecht (NI) – Die PARTEI (NI)

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 0.2% 100%  
4 22% 99.8%  
5 55% 78% Median
6 23% 23%  
7 0.2% 0.2%  
8 0% 0%  

Freie Demokratische Partei (RE) – Freie Wähler (RE)

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 0.1% 100%  
4 6% 99.9%  
5 59% 94% Median
6 34% 35%  
7 1.2% 1.2%  
8 0% 0%  

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

Calculations