Opinion Poll by INSA and YouGov for BILD, 8–12 September 2025

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Alternative für Deutschland (ESN) 0.0% 25.0% 23.4–26.7% 23.0–27.1% 22.6–27.5% 21.9–28.3%
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands (EPP) 0.0% 19.8% 18.4–21.3% 18.0–21.7% 17.6–22.1% 16.9–22.9%
Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands (S&D) 0.0% 14.0% 12.8–15.4% 12.5–15.8% 12.2–16.1% 11.6–16.8%
Bündnis 90/Die Grünen (Greens/EFA) 0.0% 12.0% 10.8–13.2% 10.5–13.6% 10.2–13.9% 9.7–14.6%
Die Linke (GUE/NGL) 0.0% 11.0% 9.9–12.2% 9.6–12.6% 9.3–12.9% 8.8–13.5%
Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern (EPP) 0.0% 5.2% 4.5–6.2% 4.3–6.4% 4.1–6.6% 3.8–7.1%
Bündnis Sahra Wagenknecht (NI) 0.0% 4.0% 3.3–4.8% 3.2–5.0% 3.0–5.3% 2.7–5.7%
Freie Demokratische Partei (RE) 0.0% 3.0% 2.4–3.7% 2.3–3.9% 2.2–4.1% 1.9–4.5%
Freie Wähler (RE) 0.0% 2.1% 1.6–2.7% 1.5–2.9% 1.4–3.0% 1.2–3.4%
Partei Mensch Umwelt Tierschutz (GUE/NGL) 0.0% 1.3% 1.0–1.9% 0.9–2.0% 0.8–2.1% 0.7–2.4%
Volt Europa (Greens/EFA) 0.0% 0.9% 0.6–1.4% 0.6–1.5% 0.5–1.6% 0.4–1.9%
Die PARTEI (NI) 0.0% 0.7% 0.4–1.1% 0.4–1.2% 0.3–1.3% 0.3–1.5%
Basisdemokratische Partei Deutschland (*) 0.0% 0.2% 0.1–0.6% 0.1–0.7% 0.1–0.7% 0.0–0.9%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Alternative für Deutschland (ESN) 0 22 22–25 21–26 21–27 21–27
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands (EPP) 0 18 18–20 17–20 17–21 16–21
Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands (S&D) 0 13 12–14 12–15 12–15 11–16
Bündnis 90/Die Grünen (Greens/EFA) 0 12 10–12 10–13 10–13 9–14
Die Linke (GUE/NGL) 0 11 9–11 9–13 9–13 8–13
Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern (EPP) 0 5 5–6 4–6 4–7 4–7
Bündnis Sahra Wagenknecht (NI) 0 5 3–5 3–5 3–5 3–5
Freie Demokratische Partei (RE) 0 3 2–4 2–4 2–4 2–4
Freie Wähler (RE) 0 2 2 2–3 1–3 1–3
Partei Mensch Umwelt Tierschutz (GUE/NGL) 0 2 1–2 1–2 1–2 1–2
Volt Europa (Greens/EFA) 0 1 1 1 0–2 0–2
Die PARTEI (NI) 0 1 1 0–1 0–1 0–2
Basisdemokratische Partei Deutschland (*) 0 0 0–1 0–1 0–1 0–1

Alternative für Deutschland (ESN)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Alternative für Deutschland (ESN) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 0% 100%  
4 0% 100%  
5 0% 100%  
6 0% 100%  
7 0% 100%  
8 0% 100%  
9 0% 100%  
10 0% 100%  
11 0% 100%  
12 0% 100%  
13 0% 100%  
14 0% 100%  
15 0% 100%  
16 0% 100%  
17 0% 100%  
18 0% 100%  
19 0% 100%  
20 0.1% 100%  
21 9% 99.9%  
22 50% 91% Median
23 9% 41%  
24 20% 32%  
25 6% 11%  
26 2% 5%  
27 3% 3%  
28 0.1% 0.1%  
29 0% 0%  

Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands (EPP)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands (EPP) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 0% 100%  
4 0% 100%  
5 0% 100%  
6 0% 100%  
7 0% 100%  
8 0% 100%  
9 0% 100%  
10 0% 100%  
11 0% 100%  
12 0% 100%  
13 0% 100%  
14 0% 100%  
15 0.2% 100%  
16 0.4% 99.8%  
17 5% 99.4%  
18 64% 94% Median
19 13% 30%  
20 13% 17%  
21 3% 4%  
22 0.3% 0.3%  
23 0% 0%  

Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands (S&D)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands (S&D) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 0% 100%  
4 0% 100%  
5 0% 100%  
6 0% 100%  
7 0% 100%  
8 0% 100%  
9 0% 100%  
10 0% 100%  
11 1.5% 100%  
12 9% 98.5%  
13 60% 90% Median
14 24% 30%  
15 5% 6%  
16 0.9% 1.0%  
17 0.1% 0.1%  
18 0% 0%  

Bündnis 90/Die Grünen (Greens/EFA)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Bündnis 90/Die Grünen (Greens/EFA) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 0% 100%  
4 0% 100%  
5 0% 100%  
6 0% 100%  
7 0% 100%  
8 0% 100%  
9 1.0% 100%  
10 17% 99.0%  
11 16% 82%  
12 61% 66% Median
13 5% 6%  
14 0.5% 0.6%  
15 0.1% 0.1%  
16 0% 0%  

Die Linke (GUE/NGL)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Die Linke (GUE/NGL) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 0% 100%  
4 0% 100%  
5 0% 100%  
6 0% 100%  
7 0% 100%  
8 0.7% 100%  
9 11% 99.2%  
10 20% 89%  
11 60% 68% Median
12 3% 9%  
13 6% 6%  
14 0.1% 0.1%  
15 0% 0%  

Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern (EPP)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern (EPP) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 0.5% 100%  
4 8% 99.5%  
5 71% 92% Median
6 16% 21%  
7 5% 5%  
8 0% 0%  

Bündnis Sahra Wagenknecht (NI)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Bündnis Sahra Wagenknecht (NI) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0.3% 100%  
3 19% 99.7%  
4 24% 80%  
5 56% 56% Median
6 0.2% 0.2%  
7 0% 0%  

Freie Demokratische Partei (RE)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Freie Demokratische Partei (RE) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 14% 100%  
3 76% 86% Median
4 10% 10%  
5 0.1% 0.1%  
6 0% 0%  

Freie Wähler (RE)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Freie Wähler (RE) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 5% 100%  
2 90% 95% Median
3 5% 5%  
4 0.1% 0.1%  
5 0% 0%  

Partei Mensch Umwelt Tierschutz (GUE/NGL)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Partei Mensch Umwelt Tierschutz (GUE/NGL) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 36% 100%  
2 64% 64% Median
3 0.1% 0.1%  
4 0% 0%  

Volt Europa (Greens/EFA)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Volt Europa (Greens/EFA) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 3% 100% Last Result
1 94% 97% Median
2 3% 3%  
3 0% 0%  

Die PARTEI (NI)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Die PARTEI (NI) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 6% 100% Last Result
1 93% 94% Median
2 0.9% 0.9%  
3 0% 0%  

Basisdemokratische Partei Deutschland (*)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Basisdemokratische Partei Deutschland (*) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 86% 100% Last Result, Median
1 14% 14%  
2 0% 0%  

Coalitions

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Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median Majority? 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Alternative für Deutschland (ESN) 0 22 0% 22–25 21–26 21–27 21–27
Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands (S&D) 0 13 0% 12–14 12–15 12–15 11–16
Bündnis Sahra Wagenknecht (NI) – Die PARTEI (NI) 0 6 0% 4–6 4–6 4–6 3–6
Freie Demokratische Partei (RE) – Freie Wähler (RE) 0 5 0% 4–6 4–6 4–6 3–7

Alternative für Deutschland (ESN)

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 0% 100%  
4 0% 100%  
5 0% 100%  
6 0% 100%  
7 0% 100%  
8 0% 100%  
9 0% 100%  
10 0% 100%  
11 0% 100%  
12 0% 100%  
13 0% 100%  
14 0% 100%  
15 0% 100%  
16 0% 100%  
17 0% 100%  
18 0% 100%  
19 0% 100%  
20 0.1% 100%  
21 9% 99.9%  
22 50% 91% Median
23 9% 41%  
24 20% 32%  
25 6% 11%  
26 2% 5%  
27 3% 3%  
28 0.1% 0.1%  
29 0% 0%  

Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands (S&D)

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 0% 100%  
4 0% 100%  
5 0% 100%  
6 0% 100%  
7 0% 100%  
8 0% 100%  
9 0% 100%  
10 0% 100%  
11 1.5% 100%  
12 9% 98.5%  
13 60% 90% Median
14 24% 30%  
15 5% 6%  
16 0.9% 1.0%  
17 0.1% 0.1%  
18 0% 0%  

Bündnis Sahra Wagenknecht (NI) – Die PARTEI (NI)

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0.2% 100%  
3 1.0% 99.8%  
4 22% 98.8%  
5 21% 77%  
6 55% 56% Median
7 0.2% 0.3%  
8 0% 0%  

Freie Demokratische Partei (RE) – Freie Wähler (RE)

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 1.3% 100%  
4 15% 98.7%  
5 70% 84% Median
6 13% 14%  
7 0.6% 0.6%  
8 0% 0%  

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

Calculations