Opinion Poll by INSA and YouGov, 12–15 September 2025

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Alternative für Deutschland (ESN) 0.0% 25.5% 24.3–26.8% 23.9–27.1% 23.6–27.5% 23.1–28.1%
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands (EPP) 0.0% 19.5% 18.4–20.7% 18.1–21.0% 17.8–21.3% 17.3–21.9%
Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands (S&D) 0.0% 14.5% 13.5–15.6% 13.3–15.9% 13.0–16.1% 12.6–16.7%
Bündnis 90/Die Grünen (Greens/EFA) 0.0% 11.5% 10.6–12.4% 10.4–12.7% 10.2–13.0% 9.7–13.4%
Die Linke (GUE/NGL) 0.0% 11.0% 10.1–11.9% 9.9–12.2% 9.7–12.4% 9.3–12.9%
Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern (EPP) 0.0% 6.0% 5.3–6.7% 5.2–6.9% 5.0–7.1% 4.7–7.5%
Bündnis Sahra Wagenknecht (NI) 0.0% 4.0% 3.5–4.6% 3.3–4.8% 3.2–5.0% 3.0–5.3%
Freie Demokratische Partei (RE) 0.0% 3.0% 2.6–3.6% 2.4–3.7% 2.3–3.8% 2.1–4.1%
Freie Wähler (RE) 0.0% 1.7% 1.4–2.1% 1.3–2.3% 1.2–2.4% 1.1–2.6%
Partei Mensch Umwelt Tierschutz (GUE/NGL) 0.0% 1.0% 0.8–1.4% 0.7–1.5% 0.7–1.6% 0.6–1.8%
Volt Europa (Greens/EFA) 0.0% 0.8% 0.6–1.1% 0.5–1.2% 0.5–1.3% 0.4–1.5%
Die PARTEI (NI) 0.0% 0.5% 0.4–0.8% 0.3–0.9% 0.3–1.0% 0.2–1.1%
Basisdemokratische Partei Deutschland (*) 0.0% 0.2% 0.1–0.4% 0.1–0.5% 0.1–0.5% 0.0–0.6%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Alternative für Deutschland (ESN) 0 24 23–26 23–26 23–27 22–27
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands (EPP) 0 18 18–20 17–20 17–20 16–21
Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands (S&D) 0 14 13–15 13–15 12–15 11–16
Bündnis 90/Die Grünen (Greens/EFA) 0 11 10–12 10–12 10–12 9–13
Die Linke (GUE/NGL) 0 10 10–11 9–12 9–12 9–12
Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern (EPP) 0 6 5–7 5–7 5–7 5–7
Bündnis Sahra Wagenknecht (NI) 0 4 3–5 3–5 3–5 3–5
Freie Demokratische Partei (RE) 0 3 2–4 2–4 2–4 2–4
Freie Wähler (RE) 0 2 1–2 1–2 1–2 1–3
Partei Mensch Umwelt Tierschutz (GUE/NGL) 0 1 1 1 1 0–2
Volt Europa (Greens/EFA) 0 1 1 0–1 0–1 0–1
Die PARTEI (NI) 0 1 0–1 0–1 0–1 0–1
Basisdemokratische Partei Deutschland (*) 0 0 0 0 0–1 0–1

Alternative für Deutschland (ESN)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Alternative für Deutschland (ESN) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 0% 100%  
4 0% 100%  
5 0% 100%  
6 0% 100%  
7 0% 100%  
8 0% 100%  
9 0% 100%  
10 0% 100%  
11 0% 100%  
12 0% 100%  
13 0% 100%  
14 0% 100%  
15 0% 100%  
16 0% 100%  
17 0% 100%  
18 0% 100%  
19 0% 100%  
20 0% 100%  
21 0.1% 100%  
22 2% 99.9%  
23 16% 98%  
24 47% 82% Median
25 19% 34%  
26 12% 16%  
27 3% 3%  
28 0.1% 0.1%  
29 0% 0%  

Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands (EPP)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands (EPP) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 0% 100%  
4 0% 100%  
5 0% 100%  
6 0% 100%  
7 0% 100%  
8 0% 100%  
9 0% 100%  
10 0% 100%  
11 0% 100%  
12 0% 100%  
13 0% 100%  
14 0% 100%  
15 0% 100%  
16 1.3% 100%  
17 6% 98.7%  
18 45% 93% Median
19 18% 48%  
20 27% 29%  
21 2% 2%  
22 0% 0%  

Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands (S&D)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands (S&D) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 0% 100%  
4 0% 100%  
5 0% 100%  
6 0% 100%  
7 0% 100%  
8 0% 100%  
9 0% 100%  
10 0% 100%  
11 1.3% 100%  
12 2% 98.7%  
13 34% 96%  
14 43% 62% Median
15 17% 19%  
16 2% 2%  
17 0.1% 0.1%  
18 0% 0%  

Bündnis 90/Die Grünen (Greens/EFA)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Bündnis 90/Die Grünen (Greens/EFA) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 0% 100%  
4 0% 100%  
5 0% 100%  
6 0% 100%  
7 0% 100%  
8 0% 100%  
9 2% 100%  
10 37% 98%  
11 33% 62% Median
12 27% 28%  
13 2% 2%  
14 0% 0%  

Die Linke (GUE/NGL)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Die Linke (GUE/NGL) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 0% 100%  
4 0% 100%  
5 0% 100%  
6 0% 100%  
7 0% 100%  
8 0% 100%  
9 7% 100%  
10 53% 93% Median
11 33% 40%  
12 7% 7%  
13 0.1% 0.2%  
14 0% 0%  

Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern (EPP)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern (EPP) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 0% 100%  
4 0.4% 100%  
5 40% 99.6%  
6 41% 60% Median
7 19% 19%  
8 0.4% 0.4%  
9 0% 0%  

Bündnis Sahra Wagenknecht (NI)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Bündnis Sahra Wagenknecht (NI) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 17% 100%  
4 64% 83% Median
5 19% 19%  
6 0.1% 0.1%  
7 0% 0%  

Freie Demokratische Partei (RE)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Freie Demokratische Partei (RE) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 27% 100%  
3 52% 73% Median
4 20% 20%  
5 0% 0%  

Freie Wähler (RE)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Freie Wähler (RE) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 42% 100%  
2 56% 58% Median
3 1.4% 1.4%  
4 0% 0%  

Partei Mensch Umwelt Tierschutz (GUE/NGL)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Partei Mensch Umwelt Tierschutz (GUE/NGL) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 1.2% 100% Last Result
1 97% 98.8% Median
2 2% 2%  
3 0% 0%  

Volt Europa (Greens/EFA)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Volt Europa (Greens/EFA) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 6% 100% Last Result
1 94% 94% Median
2 0.4% 0.4%  
3 0% 0%  

Die PARTEI (NI)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Die PARTEI (NI) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 34% 100% Last Result
1 66% 66% Median
2 0% 0%  

Basisdemokratische Partei Deutschland (*)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Basisdemokratische Partei Deutschland (*) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 96% 100% Last Result, Median
1 4% 4%  
2 0% 0%  

Coalitions

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Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median Majority? 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Alternative für Deutschland (ESN) 0 24 0% 23–26 23–26 23–27 22–27
Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands (S&D) 0 14 0% 13–15 13–15 12–15 11–16
Bündnis Sahra Wagenknecht (NI) – Die PARTEI (NI) 0 5 0% 4–6 4–6 3–6 3–6
Freie Demokratische Partei (RE) – Freie Wähler (RE) 0 5 0% 3–6 3–6 3–6 3–6

Alternative für Deutschland (ESN)

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 0% 100%  
4 0% 100%  
5 0% 100%  
6 0% 100%  
7 0% 100%  
8 0% 100%  
9 0% 100%  
10 0% 100%  
11 0% 100%  
12 0% 100%  
13 0% 100%  
14 0% 100%  
15 0% 100%  
16 0% 100%  
17 0% 100%  
18 0% 100%  
19 0% 100%  
20 0% 100%  
21 0.1% 100%  
22 2% 99.9%  
23 16% 98%  
24 47% 82% Median
25 19% 34%  
26 12% 16%  
27 3% 3%  
28 0.1% 0.1%  
29 0% 0%  

Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands (S&D)

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 0% 100%  
4 0% 100%  
5 0% 100%  
6 0% 100%  
7 0% 100%  
8 0% 100%  
9 0% 100%  
10 0% 100%  
11 1.3% 100%  
12 2% 98.7%  
13 34% 96%  
14 43% 62% Median
15 17% 19%  
16 2% 2%  
17 0.1% 0.1%  
18 0% 0%  

Bündnis Sahra Wagenknecht (NI) – Die PARTEI (NI)

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 4% 100%  
4 37% 96%  
5 45% 59% Median
6 14% 14%  
7 0% 0%  

Freie Demokratische Partei (RE) – Freie Wähler (RE)

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 20% 100%  
4 27% 80%  
5 35% 53% Median
6 18% 18%  
7 0% 0%  

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

Calculations