Opinion Poll by Allensbach for Frankfurter Allgemeine Zeitung, 5–17 September 2025
Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information
Voting Intentions
Confidence Intervals
| Party | Last Result | Poll Result | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alternative für Deutschland (ESN) | 0.0% | 24.0% | 22.3–25.8% | 21.9–26.3% | 21.5–26.7% | 20.7–27.6% |
| Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands (EPP) | 0.0% | 21.3% | 19.7–23.0% | 19.3–23.5% | 18.9–24.0% | 18.2–24.8% |
| Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands (S&D) | 0.0% | 15.0% | 13.6–16.5% | 13.3–17.0% | 12.9–17.3% | 12.3–18.1% |
| Die Linke (GUE/NGL) | 0.0% | 11.0% | 9.8–12.3% | 9.4–12.7% | 9.2–13.0% | 8.6–13.7% |
| Bündnis 90/Die Grünen (Greens/EFA) | 0.0% | 11.0% | 9.8–12.3% | 9.4–12.7% | 9.2–13.0% | 8.6–13.7% |
| Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern (EPP) | 0.0% | 5.7% | 4.9–6.8% | 4.6–7.1% | 4.5–7.3% | 4.1–7.9% |
| Freie Demokratische Partei (RE) | 0.0% | 4.0% | 3.4–5.0% | 3.2–5.2% | 3.0–5.5% | 2.7–5.9% |
| Bündnis Sahra Wagenknecht (NI) | 0.0% | 3.0% | 2.4–3.8% | 2.2–4.0% | 2.1–4.2% | 1.8–4.6% |
| Freie Wähler (RE) | 0.0% | 1.7% | 1.3–2.3% | 1.1–2.5% | 1.1–2.7% | 0.9–3.0% |
| Partei Mensch Umwelt Tierschutz (GUE/NGL) | 0.0% | 1.1% | 0.8–1.6% | 0.7–1.8% | 0.6–1.9% | 0.5–2.2% |
| Volt Europa (Greens/EFA) | 0.0% | 0.8% | 0.5–1.3% | 0.5–1.4% | 0.4–1.6% | 0.3–1.8% |
| Die PARTEI (NI) | 0.0% | 0.5% | 0.3–0.9% | 0.2–1.0% | 0.2–1.2% | 0.1–1.4% |
| Basisdemokratische Partei Deutschland (*) | 0.0% | 0.2% | 0.1–0.5% | 0.1–0.6% | 0.1–0.7% | 0.0–0.9% |
Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.
Seats
Confidence Intervals
| Party | Last Result | Median | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alternative für Deutschland (ESN) | 0 | 23 | 21–24 | 21–25 | 21–25 | 20–27 |
| Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands (EPP) | 0 | 21 | 19–23 | 18–23 | 18–23 | 17–24 |
| Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands (S&D) | 0 | 14 | 13–16 | 12–16 | 12–16 | 11–17 |
| Die Linke (GUE/NGL) | 0 | 11 | 10–13 | 9–13 | 9–13 | 8–13 |
| Bündnis 90/Die Grünen (Greens/EFA) | 0 | 10 | 9–12 | 9–12 | 9–12 | 8–13 |
| Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern (EPP) | 0 | 5 | 4–6 | 4–7 | 4–7 | 4–7 |
| Freie Demokratische Partei (RE) | 0 | 4 | 3–4 | 3–5 | 3–5 | 3–6 |
| Bündnis Sahra Wagenknecht (NI) | 0 | 3 | 2–4 | 2–4 | 2–4 | 2–4 |
| Freie Wähler (RE) | 0 | 1 | 1–2 | 1–2 | 1–3 | 1–3 |
| Partei Mensch Umwelt Tierschutz (GUE/NGL) | 0 | 1 | 1–2 | 1–2 | 1–2 | 0–2 |
| Volt Europa (Greens/EFA) | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0–2 | 0–2 | 0–2 |
| Die PARTEI (NI) | 0 | 0 | 0–1 | 0–1 | 0–1 | 0–1 |
| Basisdemokratische Partei Deutschland (*) | 0 | 0 | 0–1 | 0–1 | 0–1 | 0–1 |
Alternative für Deutschland (ESN)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Alternative für Deutschland (ESN) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 100% | |
| 2 | 0% | 100% | |
| 3 | 0% | 100% | |
| 4 | 0% | 100% | |
| 5 | 0% | 100% | |
| 6 | 0% | 100% | |
| 7 | 0% | 100% | |
| 8 | 0% | 100% | |
| 9 | 0% | 100% | |
| 10 | 0% | 100% | |
| 11 | 0% | 100% | |
| 12 | 0% | 100% | |
| 13 | 0% | 100% | |
| 14 | 0% | 100% | |
| 15 | 0% | 100% | |
| 16 | 0% | 100% | |
| 17 | 0% | 100% | |
| 18 | 0% | 100% | |
| 19 | 0.4% | 100% | |
| 20 | 1.4% | 99.6% | |
| 21 | 17% | 98% | |
| 22 | 24% | 81% | |
| 23 | 39% | 58% | Median |
| 24 | 13% | 19% | |
| 25 | 4% | 6% | |
| 26 | 0.5% | 2% | |
| 27 | 1.5% | 2% | |
| 28 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 29 | 0% | 0% |
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands (EPP)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands (EPP) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 100% | |
| 2 | 0% | 100% | |
| 3 | 0% | 100% | |
| 4 | 0% | 100% | |
| 5 | 0% | 100% | |
| 6 | 0% | 100% | |
| 7 | 0% | 100% | |
| 8 | 0% | 100% | |
| 9 | 0% | 100% | |
| 10 | 0% | 100% | |
| 11 | 0% | 100% | |
| 12 | 0% | 100% | |
| 13 | 0% | 100% | |
| 14 | 0% | 100% | |
| 15 | 0% | 100% | |
| 16 | 0.2% | 100% | |
| 17 | 0.7% | 99.8% | |
| 18 | 5% | 99.1% | |
| 19 | 11% | 94% | |
| 20 | 30% | 83% | |
| 21 | 31% | 52% | Median |
| 22 | 8% | 21% | |
| 23 | 13% | 14% | |
| 24 | 0.6% | 0.9% | |
| 25 | 0.3% | 0.3% | |
| 26 | 0% | 0% |
Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands (S&D)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands (S&D) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 100% | |
| 2 | 0% | 100% | |
| 3 | 0% | 100% | |
| 4 | 0% | 100% | |
| 5 | 0% | 100% | |
| 6 | 0% | 100% | |
| 7 | 0% | 100% | |
| 8 | 0% | 100% | |
| 9 | 0% | 100% | |
| 10 | 0% | 100% | |
| 11 | 1.2% | 100% | |
| 12 | 6% | 98.8% | |
| 13 | 28% | 93% | |
| 14 | 27% | 65% | Median |
| 15 | 26% | 39% | |
| 16 | 11% | 12% | |
| 17 | 2% | 2% | |
| 18 | 0.2% | 0.2% | |
| 19 | 0% | 0% |
Die Linke (GUE/NGL)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Die Linke (GUE/NGL) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 100% | |
| 2 | 0% | 100% | |
| 3 | 0% | 100% | |
| 4 | 0% | 100% | |
| 5 | 0% | 100% | |
| 6 | 0% | 100% | |
| 7 | 0% | 100% | |
| 8 | 0.5% | 100% | |
| 9 | 9% | 99.5% | |
| 10 | 35% | 91% | |
| 11 | 19% | 56% | Median |
| 12 | 21% | 37% | |
| 13 | 17% | 17% | |
| 14 | 0% | 0% |
Bündnis 90/Die Grünen (Greens/EFA)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Bündnis 90/Die Grünen (Greens/EFA) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 100% | |
| 2 | 0% | 100% | |
| 3 | 0% | 100% | |
| 4 | 0% | 100% | |
| 5 | 0% | 100% | |
| 6 | 0% | 100% | |
| 7 | 0% | 100% | |
| 8 | 0.6% | 100% | |
| 9 | 13% | 99.4% | |
| 10 | 41% | 87% | Median |
| 11 | 31% | 46% | |
| 12 | 13% | 14% | |
| 13 | 0.9% | 1.2% | |
| 14 | 0.2% | 0.2% | |
| 15 | 0% | 0% |
Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern (EPP)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern (EPP) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 100% | |
| 2 | 0% | 100% | |
| 3 | 0.2% | 100% | |
| 4 | 26% | 99.8% | |
| 5 | 33% | 74% | Median |
| 6 | 32% | 42% | |
| 7 | 9% | 10% | |
| 8 | 0.2% | 0.2% | |
| 9 | 0% | 0% |
Freie Demokratische Partei (RE)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Freie Demokratische Partei (RE) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 100% | |
| 2 | 0.3% | 100% | |
| 3 | 28% | 99.7% | |
| 4 | 65% | 72% | Median |
| 5 | 6% | 7% | |
| 6 | 1.1% | 1.2% | |
| 7 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 8 | 0% | 0% |
Bündnis Sahra Wagenknecht (NI)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Bündnis Sahra Wagenknecht (NI) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 2 | 25% | 99.9% | |
| 3 | 61% | 74% | Median |
| 4 | 13% | 13% | |
| 5 | 0.3% | 0.3% | |
| 6 | 0% | 0% |
Freie Wähler (RE)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Freie Wähler (RE) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 50% | 100% | Median |
| 2 | 46% | 50% | |
| 3 | 3% | 3% | |
| 4 | 0% | 0% |
Partei Mensch Umwelt Tierschutz (GUE/NGL)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Partei Mensch Umwelt Tierschutz (GUE/NGL) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 2% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 84% | 98% | Median |
| 2 | 15% | 15% | |
| 3 | 0% | 0% |
Volt Europa (Greens/EFA)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Volt Europa (Greens/EFA) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 83% | 91% | Median |
| 2 | 8% | 8% | |
| 3 | 0% | 0% |
Die PARTEI (NI)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Die PARTEI (NI) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 53% | 100% | Last Result, Median |
| 1 | 47% | 47% | |
| 2 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 3 | 0% | 0% |
Basisdemokratische Partei Deutschland (*)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Basisdemokratische Partei Deutschland (*) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 88% | 100% | Last Result, Median |
| 1 | 12% | 12% | |
| 2 | 0% | 0% |
Coalitions
Confidence Intervals
| Coalition | Last Result | Median | Majority? | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alternative für Deutschland (ESN) | 0 | 23 | 0% | 21–24 | 21–25 | 21–25 | 20–27 |
| Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands (S&D) | 0 | 14 | 0% | 13–16 | 12–16 | 12–16 | 11–17 |
| Freie Demokratische Partei (RE) – Freie Wähler (RE) | 0 | 5 | 0% | 4–6 | 4–7 | 4–7 | 4–8 |
| Bündnis Sahra Wagenknecht (NI) – Die PARTEI (NI) | 0 | 3 | 0% | 2–4 | 2–5 | 2–5 | 2–5 |
Alternative für Deutschland (ESN)
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 100% | |
| 2 | 0% | 100% | |
| 3 | 0% | 100% | |
| 4 | 0% | 100% | |
| 5 | 0% | 100% | |
| 6 | 0% | 100% | |
| 7 | 0% | 100% | |
| 8 | 0% | 100% | |
| 9 | 0% | 100% | |
| 10 | 0% | 100% | |
| 11 | 0% | 100% | |
| 12 | 0% | 100% | |
| 13 | 0% | 100% | |
| 14 | 0% | 100% | |
| 15 | 0% | 100% | |
| 16 | 0% | 100% | |
| 17 | 0% | 100% | |
| 18 | 0% | 100% | |
| 19 | 0.4% | 100% | |
| 20 | 1.4% | 99.6% | |
| 21 | 17% | 98% | |
| 22 | 24% | 81% | |
| 23 | 39% | 58% | Median |
| 24 | 13% | 19% | |
| 25 | 4% | 6% | |
| 26 | 0.5% | 2% | |
| 27 | 1.5% | 2% | |
| 28 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 29 | 0% | 0% |
Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands (S&D)
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 100% | |
| 2 | 0% | 100% | |
| 3 | 0% | 100% | |
| 4 | 0% | 100% | |
| 5 | 0% | 100% | |
| 6 | 0% | 100% | |
| 7 | 0% | 100% | |
| 8 | 0% | 100% | |
| 9 | 0% | 100% | |
| 10 | 0% | 100% | |
| 11 | 1.2% | 100% | |
| 12 | 6% | 98.8% | |
| 13 | 28% | 93% | |
| 14 | 27% | 65% | Median |
| 15 | 26% | 39% | |
| 16 | 11% | 12% | |
| 17 | 2% | 2% | |
| 18 | 0.2% | 0.2% | |
| 19 | 0% | 0% |
Freie Demokratische Partei (RE) – Freie Wähler (RE)
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 100% | |
| 2 | 0% | 100% | |
| 3 | 0% | 100% | |
| 4 | 16% | 100% | |
| 5 | 42% | 84% | Median |
| 6 | 35% | 42% | |
| 7 | 6% | 7% | |
| 8 | 0.8% | 0.8% | |
| 9 | 0% | 0% |
Bündnis Sahra Wagenknecht (NI) – Die PARTEI (NI)
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 100% | |
| 2 | 16% | 100% | |
| 3 | 39% | 84% | Median |
| 4 | 37% | 44% | |
| 5 | 7% | 7% | |
| 6 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 7 | 0% | 0% |
Technical Information
Opinion Poll
- Polling firm: Allensbach
- Commissioner(s): Frankfurter Allgemeine Zeitung
- Fieldwork period: 5–17 September 2025
Calculations
- Sample size: 1013
- Simulations done: 2,097,152
- Error estimate: 2.94%