Opinion Poll by GMS, 24–29 September 2025
Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information
Voting Intentions
Confidence Intervals
| Party | Last Result | Poll Result | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alternative für Deutschland (ESN) | 0.0% | 25.0% | 23.3–26.8% | 22.8–27.3% | 22.4–27.8% | 21.6–28.7% |
| Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands (EPP) | 0.0% | 20.6% | 19.0–22.3% | 18.5–22.7% | 18.2–23.2% | 17.5–24.0% |
| Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands (S&D) | 0.0% | 15.0% | 13.7–16.6% | 13.3–17.0% | 12.9–17.4% | 12.3–18.1% |
| Bündnis 90/Die Grünen (Greens/EFA) | 0.0% | 11.0% | 9.8–12.3% | 9.5–12.7% | 9.2–13.0% | 8.7–13.7% |
| Die Linke (GUE/NGL) | 0.0% | 10.0% | 8.9–11.3% | 8.6–11.7% | 8.3–12.0% | 7.8–12.7% |
| Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern (EPP) | 0.0% | 5.4% | 4.6–6.5% | 4.4–6.8% | 4.2–7.0% | 3.8–7.5% |
| Bündnis Sahra Wagenknecht (NI) | 0.0% | 3.0% | 2.4–3.8% | 2.2–4.0% | 2.1–4.2% | 1.8–4.6% |
| Freie Demokratische Partei (RE) | 0.0% | 3.0% | 2.4–3.8% | 2.2–4.0% | 2.1–4.2% | 1.8–4.6% |
| Freie Wähler (RE) | 0.0% | 2.4% | 1.9–3.1% | 1.7–3.3% | 1.6–3.5% | 1.4–3.9% |
| Partei Mensch Umwelt Tierschutz (GUE/NGL) | 0.0% | 1.5% | 1.1–2.1% | 1.0–2.3% | 0.9–2.4% | 0.7–2.8% |
| Volt Europa (Greens/EFA) | 0.0% | 1.1% | 0.8–1.6% | 0.7–1.8% | 0.6–1.9% | 0.5–2.2% |
| Die PARTEI (NI) | 0.0% | 0.8% | 0.5–1.3% | 0.5–1.4% | 0.4–1.6% | 0.3–1.8% |
| Basisdemokratische Partei Deutschland (*) | 0.0% | 0.3% | 0.2–0.7% | 0.1–0.8% | 0.1–0.9% | 0.1–1.1% |
Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.
Seats
Confidence Intervals
| Party | Last Result | Median | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alternative für Deutschland (ESN) | 0 | 24 | 22–24 | 22–25 | 21–26 | 21–27 |
| Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands (EPP) | 0 | 19 | 18–21 | 18–21 | 17–21 | 16–22 |
| Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands (S&D) | 0 | 15 | 13–15 | 13–16 | 13–16 | 12–17 |
| Bündnis 90/Die Grünen (Greens/EFA) | 0 | 11 | 10–12 | 10–12 | 9–12 | 8–13 |
| Die Linke (GUE/NGL) | 0 | 9 | 8–10 | 8–10 | 8–11 | 8–11 |
| Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern (EPP) | 0 | 6 | 5–6 | 5–6 | 4–6 | 4–7 |
| Bündnis Sahra Wagenknecht (NI) | 0 | 3 | 3 | 2–3 | 2–4 | 2–4 |
| Freie Demokratische Partei (RE) | 0 | 3 | 3–4 | 3–4 | 2–4 | 2–4 |
| Freie Wähler (RE) | 0 | 2 | 2–3 | 2–3 | 2–3 | 1–3 |
| Partei Mensch Umwelt Tierschutz (GUE/NGL) | 0 | 1 | 1–2 | 1–2 | 1–2 | 1–3 |
| Volt Europa (Greens/EFA) | 0 | 1 | 1–2 | 1–2 | 1–2 | 0–2 |
| Die PARTEI (NI) | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0–2 | 0–2 |
| Basisdemokratische Partei Deutschland (*) | 0 | 0 | 0–1 | 0–1 | 0–1 | 0–1 |
Alternative für Deutschland (ESN)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Alternative für Deutschland (ESN) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 100% | |
| 2 | 0% | 100% | |
| 3 | 0% | 100% | |
| 4 | 0% | 100% | |
| 5 | 0% | 100% | |
| 6 | 0% | 100% | |
| 7 | 0% | 100% | |
| 8 | 0% | 100% | |
| 9 | 0% | 100% | |
| 10 | 0% | 100% | |
| 11 | 0% | 100% | |
| 12 | 0% | 100% | |
| 13 | 0% | 100% | |
| 14 | 0% | 100% | |
| 15 | 0% | 100% | |
| 16 | 0% | 100% | |
| 17 | 0% | 100% | |
| 18 | 0% | 100% | |
| 19 | 0% | 100% | |
| 20 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 21 | 3% | 99.8% | |
| 22 | 11% | 97% | |
| 23 | 9% | 86% | |
| 24 | 71% | 77% | Median |
| 25 | 3% | 6% | |
| 26 | 2% | 3% | |
| 27 | 0.6% | 0.6% | |
| 28 | 0% | 0% |
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands (EPP)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands (EPP) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 100% | |
| 2 | 0% | 100% | |
| 3 | 0% | 100% | |
| 4 | 0% | 100% | |
| 5 | 0% | 100% | |
| 6 | 0% | 100% | |
| 7 | 0% | 100% | |
| 8 | 0% | 100% | |
| 9 | 0% | 100% | |
| 10 | 0% | 100% | |
| 11 | 0% | 100% | |
| 12 | 0% | 100% | |
| 13 | 0% | 100% | |
| 14 | 0% | 100% | |
| 15 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 16 | 0.5% | 99.9% | |
| 17 | 3% | 99.4% | |
| 18 | 30% | 96% | |
| 19 | 47% | 66% | Median |
| 20 | 8% | 18% | |
| 21 | 8% | 11% | |
| 22 | 2% | 2% | |
| 23 | 0.4% | 0.4% | |
| 24 | 0% | 0% |
Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands (S&D)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands (S&D) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 100% | |
| 2 | 0% | 100% | |
| 3 | 0% | 100% | |
| 4 | 0% | 100% | |
| 5 | 0% | 100% | |
| 6 | 0% | 100% | |
| 7 | 0% | 100% | |
| 8 | 0% | 100% | |
| 9 | 0% | 100% | |
| 10 | 0% | 100% | |
| 11 | 0.3% | 100% | |
| 12 | 1.5% | 99.7% | |
| 13 | 11% | 98% | |
| 14 | 12% | 87% | |
| 15 | 67% | 75% | Median |
| 16 | 8% | 8% | |
| 17 | 0.5% | 0.6% | |
| 18 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 19 | 0% | 0% |
Bündnis 90/Die Grünen (Greens/EFA)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Bündnis 90/Die Grünen (Greens/EFA) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 100% | |
| 2 | 0% | 100% | |
| 3 | 0% | 100% | |
| 4 | 0% | 100% | |
| 5 | 0% | 100% | |
| 6 | 0% | 100% | |
| 7 | 0% | 100% | |
| 8 | 0.5% | 100% | |
| 9 | 3% | 99.5% | |
| 10 | 16% | 97% | |
| 11 | 57% | 80% | Median |
| 12 | 23% | 24% | |
| 13 | 0.4% | 0.5% | |
| 14 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 15 | 0% | 0% |
Die Linke (GUE/NGL)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Die Linke (GUE/NGL) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 100% | |
| 2 | 0% | 100% | |
| 3 | 0% | 100% | |
| 4 | 0% | 100% | |
| 5 | 0% | 100% | |
| 6 | 0% | 100% | |
| 7 | 0.5% | 100% | |
| 8 | 42% | 99.5% | |
| 9 | 41% | 57% | Median |
| 10 | 11% | 16% | |
| 11 | 4% | 5% | |
| 12 | 0.2% | 0.3% | |
| 13 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 14 | 0% | 0% |
Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern (EPP)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern (EPP) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 100% | |
| 2 | 0% | 100% | |
| 3 | 0% | 100% | |
| 4 | 3% | 100% | |
| 5 | 39% | 97% | |
| 6 | 56% | 57% | Median |
| 7 | 1.1% | 1.2% | |
| 8 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 9 | 0% | 0% |
Bündnis Sahra Wagenknecht (NI)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Bündnis Sahra Wagenknecht (NI) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 100% | |
| 2 | 10% | 100% | |
| 3 | 86% | 90% | Median |
| 4 | 4% | 5% | |
| 5 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 6 | 0% | 0% |
Freie Demokratische Partei (RE)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Freie Demokratische Partei (RE) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 100% | |
| 2 | 5% | 100% | |
| 3 | 80% | 95% | Median |
| 4 | 15% | 15% | |
| 5 | 0.2% | 0.2% | |
| 6 | 0% | 0% |
Freie Wähler (RE)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Freie Wähler (RE) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 2% | 100% | |
| 2 | 79% | 98% | Median |
| 3 | 19% | 19% | |
| 4 | 0.4% | 0.4% | |
| 5 | 0% | 0% |
Partei Mensch Umwelt Tierschutz (GUE/NGL)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Partei Mensch Umwelt Tierschutz (GUE/NGL) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 60% | 100% | Median |
| 2 | 39% | 40% | |
| 3 | 0.5% | 0.5% | |
| 4 | 0% | 0% |
Volt Europa (Greens/EFA)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Volt Europa (Greens/EFA) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 1.2% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 50% | 98.8% | Median |
| 2 | 48% | 48% | |
| 3 | 0% | 0% |
Die PARTEI (NI)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Die PARTEI (NI) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 93% | 96% | Median |
| 2 | 3% | 3% | |
| 3 | 0% | 0% |
Basisdemokratische Partei Deutschland (*)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Basisdemokratische Partei Deutschland (*) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 79% | 100% | Last Result, Median |
| 1 | 21% | 21% | |
| 2 | 0% | 0% |
Coalitions
Confidence Intervals
| Coalition | Last Result | Median | Majority? | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alternative für Deutschland (ESN) | 0 | 24 | 0% | 22–24 | 22–25 | 21–26 | 21–27 |
| Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands (S&D) | 0 | 15 | 0% | 13–15 | 13–16 | 13–16 | 12–17 |
| Freie Demokratische Partei (RE) – Freie Wähler (RE) | 0 | 5 | 0% | 5–6 | 5–7 | 4–7 | 4–7 |
| Bündnis Sahra Wagenknecht (NI) – Die PARTEI (NI) | 0 | 4 | 0% | 3–4 | 3–5 | 3–5 | 2–6 |
Alternative für Deutschland (ESN)
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 100% | |
| 2 | 0% | 100% | |
| 3 | 0% | 100% | |
| 4 | 0% | 100% | |
| 5 | 0% | 100% | |
| 6 | 0% | 100% | |
| 7 | 0% | 100% | |
| 8 | 0% | 100% | |
| 9 | 0% | 100% | |
| 10 | 0% | 100% | |
| 11 | 0% | 100% | |
| 12 | 0% | 100% | |
| 13 | 0% | 100% | |
| 14 | 0% | 100% | |
| 15 | 0% | 100% | |
| 16 | 0% | 100% | |
| 17 | 0% | 100% | |
| 18 | 0% | 100% | |
| 19 | 0% | 100% | |
| 20 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 21 | 3% | 99.8% | |
| 22 | 11% | 97% | |
| 23 | 9% | 86% | |
| 24 | 71% | 77% | Median |
| 25 | 3% | 6% | |
| 26 | 2% | 3% | |
| 27 | 0.6% | 0.6% | |
| 28 | 0% | 0% |
Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands (S&D)
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 100% | |
| 2 | 0% | 100% | |
| 3 | 0% | 100% | |
| 4 | 0% | 100% | |
| 5 | 0% | 100% | |
| 6 | 0% | 100% | |
| 7 | 0% | 100% | |
| 8 | 0% | 100% | |
| 9 | 0% | 100% | |
| 10 | 0% | 100% | |
| 11 | 0.3% | 100% | |
| 12 | 1.5% | 99.7% | |
| 13 | 11% | 98% | |
| 14 | 12% | 87% | |
| 15 | 67% | 75% | Median |
| 16 | 8% | 8% | |
| 17 | 0.5% | 0.6% | |
| 18 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 19 | 0% | 0% |
Freie Demokratische Partei (RE) – Freie Wähler (RE)
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 100% | |
| 2 | 0% | 100% | |
| 3 | 0.3% | 100% | |
| 4 | 5% | 99.7% | |
| 5 | 70% | 95% | Median |
| 6 | 16% | 25% | |
| 7 | 8% | 8% | |
| 8 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 9 | 0% | 0% |
Bündnis Sahra Wagenknecht (NI) – Die PARTEI (NI)
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 100% | |
| 2 | 1.3% | 100% | |
| 3 | 10% | 98.7% | |
| 4 | 84% | 89% | Median |
| 5 | 4% | 5% | |
| 6 | 1.4% | 1.4% | |
| 7 | 0% | 0% |
Technical Information
Opinion Poll
- Polling firm: GMS
- Commissioner(s): —
- Fieldwork period: 24–29 September 2025
Calculations
- Sample size: 1012
- Simulations done: 2,097,152
- Error estimate: 1.36%