Opinion Poll by INSA and YouGov for BILD, 26–29 September 2025

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Alternative für Deutschland (ESN) 0.0% 26.0% 24.8–27.3% 24.4–27.7% 24.1–28.0% 23.6–28.6%
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands (EPP) 0.0% 19.7% 18.6–20.9% 18.3–21.3% 18.0–21.6% 17.5–22.1%
Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands (S&D) 0.0% 15.5% 14.5–16.6% 14.2–16.9% 14.0–17.2% 13.5–17.7%
Bündnis 90/Die Grünen (Greens/EFA) 0.0% 11.5% 10.6–12.5% 10.4–12.8% 10.2–13.0% 9.8–13.5%
Die Linke (GUE/NGL) 0.0% 11.0% 10.2–12.0% 9.9–12.2% 9.7–12.5% 9.3–12.9%
Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern (EPP) 0.0% 5.3% 4.7–6.0% 4.5–6.2% 4.4–6.4% 4.1–6.7%
Bündnis Sahra Wagenknecht (NI) 0.0% 4.0% 3.5–4.6% 3.3–4.8% 3.2–4.9% 3.0–5.3%
Freie Demokratische Partei (RE) 0.0% 3.0% 2.5–3.6% 2.4–3.7% 2.3–3.8% 2.1–4.1%
Freie Wähler (RE) 0.0% 1.3% 1.1–1.8% 1.0–1.9% 0.9–2.0% 0.8–2.2%
Partei Mensch Umwelt Tierschutz (GUE/NGL) 0.0% 0.8% 0.6–1.2% 0.6–1.3% 0.5–1.4% 0.4–1.5%
Volt Europa (Greens/EFA) 0.0% 0.6% 0.4–0.9% 0.4–1.0% 0.3–1.1% 0.3–1.2%
Die PARTEI (NI) 0.0% 0.4% 0.3–0.7% 0.2–0.7% 0.2–0.8% 0.2–0.9%
Basisdemokratische Partei Deutschland (*) 0.0% 0.1% 0.1–0.3% 0.1–0.4% 0.0–0.4% 0.0–0.5%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Alternative für Deutschland (ESN) 0 24 24–25 23–26 23–26 23–27
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands (EPP) 0 18 17–19 17–20 17–20 17–21
Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands (S&D) 0 15 14–16 14–16 14–16 13–17
Bündnis 90/Die Grünen (Greens/EFA) 0 11 10–12 10–12 10–12 9–13
Die Linke (GUE/NGL) 0 11 10–11 10–11 10–12 9–12
Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern (EPP) 0 5 4–6 4–6 4–6 4–6
Bündnis Sahra Wagenknecht (NI) 0 4 4 3–4 3–5 3–5
Freie Demokratische Partei (RE) 0 3 3 3–4 2–4 2–4
Freie Wähler (RE) 0 1 1–2 1–2 1–2 1–2
Partei Mensch Umwelt Tierschutz (GUE/NGL) 0 1 1 1 1 0–1
Volt Europa (Greens/EFA) 0 1 1 0–1 0–1 0–1
Die PARTEI (NI) 0 0 0–1 0–1 0–1 0–1
Basisdemokratische Partei Deutschland (*) 0 0 0 0 0 0

Alternative für Deutschland (ESN)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Alternative für Deutschland (ESN) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 0% 100%  
4 0% 100%  
5 0% 100%  
6 0% 100%  
7 0% 100%  
8 0% 100%  
9 0% 100%  
10 0% 100%  
11 0% 100%  
12 0% 100%  
13 0% 100%  
14 0% 100%  
15 0% 100%  
16 0% 100%  
17 0% 100%  
18 0% 100%  
19 0% 100%  
20 0% 100%  
21 0% 100%  
22 0.2% 100%  
23 6% 99.8%  
24 50% 94% Median
25 35% 44%  
26 6% 9%  
27 2% 2%  
28 0.1% 0.1%  
29 0% 0%  

Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands (EPP)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands (EPP) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 0% 100%  
4 0% 100%  
5 0% 100%  
6 0% 100%  
7 0% 100%  
8 0% 100%  
9 0% 100%  
10 0% 100%  
11 0% 100%  
12 0% 100%  
13 0% 100%  
14 0% 100%  
15 0% 100%  
16 0.1% 100%  
17 32% 99.9%  
18 31% 68% Median
19 29% 37%  
20 7% 8%  
21 1.4% 1.5%  
22 0.1% 0.1%  
23 0% 0%  

Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands (S&D)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands (S&D) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 0% 100%  
4 0% 100%  
5 0% 100%  
6 0% 100%  
7 0% 100%  
8 0% 100%  
9 0% 100%  
10 0% 100%  
11 0% 100%  
12 0.1% 100%  
13 2% 99.9%  
14 10% 98%  
15 59% 88% Median
16 28% 29%  
17 0.9% 0.9%  
18 0% 0%  

Bündnis 90/Die Grünen (Greens/EFA)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Bündnis 90/Die Grünen (Greens/EFA) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 0% 100%  
4 0% 100%  
5 0% 100%  
6 0% 100%  
7 0% 100%  
8 0% 100%  
9 0.6% 100%  
10 29% 99.4%  
11 22% 71% Median
12 48% 49%  
13 1.1% 1.2%  
14 0.1% 0.1%  
15 0% 0%  

Die Linke (GUE/NGL)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Die Linke (GUE/NGL) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 0% 100%  
4 0% 100%  
5 0% 100%  
6 0% 100%  
7 0% 100%  
8 0% 100%  
9 1.1% 100%  
10 16% 98.8%  
11 79% 83% Median
12 4% 4%  
13 0.1% 0.1%  
14 0% 0%  

Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern (EPP)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern (EPP) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 0% 100%  
4 20% 100%  
5 68% 80% Median
6 12% 12%  
7 0.1% 0.1%  
8 0% 0%  

Bündnis Sahra Wagenknecht (NI)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Bündnis Sahra Wagenknecht (NI) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 8% 100%  
4 87% 92% Median
5 5% 5%  
6 0% 0%  

Freie Demokratische Partei (RE)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Freie Demokratische Partei (RE) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 4% 100%  
3 91% 96% Median
4 5% 5%  
5 0% 0%  

Freie Wähler (RE)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Freie Wähler (RE) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 69% 100% Median
2 31% 31%  
3 0% 0%  

Partei Mensch Umwelt Tierschutz (GUE/NGL)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Partei Mensch Umwelt Tierschutz (GUE/NGL) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0.5% 100% Last Result
1 99.1% 99.5% Median
2 0.4% 0.4%  
3 0% 0%  

Volt Europa (Greens/EFA)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Volt Europa (Greens/EFA) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 8% 100% Last Result
1 92% 92% Median
2 0% 0%  

Die PARTEI (NI)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Die PARTEI (NI) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 68% 100% Last Result, Median
1 32% 32%  
2 0% 0%  

Basisdemokratische Partei Deutschland (*)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Basisdemokratische Partei Deutschland (*) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 99.7% 100% Last Result, Median
1 0.3% 0.3%  
2 0% 0%  

Coalitions

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Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median Majority? 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Alternative für Deutschland (ESN) 0 24 0% 24–25 23–26 23–26 23–27
Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands (S&D) 0 15 0% 14–16 14–16 14–16 13–17
Freie Demokratische Partei (RE) – Freie Wähler (RE) 0 4 0% 4–5 4–5 4–5 3–5
Bündnis Sahra Wagenknecht (NI) – Die PARTEI (NI) 0 4 0% 4–5 4–5 3–5 3–6

Alternative für Deutschland (ESN)

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 0% 100%  
4 0% 100%  
5 0% 100%  
6 0% 100%  
7 0% 100%  
8 0% 100%  
9 0% 100%  
10 0% 100%  
11 0% 100%  
12 0% 100%  
13 0% 100%  
14 0% 100%  
15 0% 100%  
16 0% 100%  
17 0% 100%  
18 0% 100%  
19 0% 100%  
20 0% 100%  
21 0% 100%  
22 0.2% 100%  
23 6% 99.8%  
24 50% 94% Median
25 35% 44%  
26 6% 9%  
27 2% 2%  
28 0.1% 0.1%  
29 0% 0%  

Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands (S&D)

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 0% 100%  
4 0% 100%  
5 0% 100%  
6 0% 100%  
7 0% 100%  
8 0% 100%  
9 0% 100%  
10 0% 100%  
11 0% 100%  
12 0.1% 100%  
13 2% 99.9%  
14 10% 98%  
15 59% 88% Median
16 28% 29%  
17 0.9% 0.9%  
18 0% 0%  

Freie Demokratische Partei (RE) – Freie Wähler (RE)

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 2% 100%  
4 63% 98% Median
5 34% 34%  
6 0.2% 0.2%  
7 0% 0%  

Bündnis Sahra Wagenknecht (NI) – Die PARTEI (NI)

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 5% 100%  
4 63% 95% Median
5 31% 32%  
6 1.3% 1.3%  
7 0% 0%  

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

Calculations