Opinion Poll by INSA and YouGov for BILD, 29 September–2 October 2025

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Alternative für Deutschland (ESN) 0.0% 26.0% 24.4–27.7% 23.9–28.1% 23.5–28.5% 22.8–29.4%
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands (EPP) 0.0% 19.0% 17.6–20.5% 17.2–20.9% 16.8–21.3% 16.2–22.1%
Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands (S&D) 0.0% 14.0% 12.8–15.4% 12.4–15.8% 12.1–16.1% 11.6–16.8%
Die Linke (GUE/NGL) 0.0% 12.0% 10.8–13.3% 10.5–13.6% 10.2–13.9% 9.7–14.6%
Bündnis 90/Die Grünen (Greens/EFA) 0.0% 11.0% 9.9–12.2% 9.6–12.6% 9.3–12.9% 8.8–13.5%
Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern (EPP) 0.0% 5.1% 4.3–6.0% 4.1–6.2% 3.9–6.5% 3.6–6.9%
Bündnis Sahra Wagenknecht (NI) 0.0% 4.0% 3.3–4.8% 3.1–5.0% 3.0–5.2% 2.7–5.7%
Freie Demokratische Partei (RE) 0.0% 4.0% 3.3–4.8% 3.1–5.0% 3.0–5.2% 2.7–5.7%
Freie Wähler (RE) 0.0% 1.8% 1.4–2.4% 1.2–2.5% 1.2–2.7% 1.0–3.0%
Partei Mensch Umwelt Tierschutz (GUE/NGL) 0.0% 1.1% 0.8–1.6% 0.7–1.7% 0.6–1.9% 0.5–2.1%
Volt Europa (Greens/EFA) 0.0% 0.8% 0.6–1.3% 0.5–1.4% 0.5–1.6% 0.4–1.8%
Die PARTEI (NI) 0.0% 0.6% 0.4–1.0% 0.3–1.1% 0.3–1.2% 0.2–1.4%
Basisdemokratische Partei Deutschland (*) 0.0% 0.2% 0.1–0.5% 0.1–0.5% 0.0–0.6% 0.0–0.8%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Alternative für Deutschland (ESN) 0 24 22–25 22–26 22–27 22–28
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands (EPP) 0 18 17–19 17–19 16–19 16–21
Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands (S&D) 0 14 13–15 12–15 11–15 11–16
Die Linke (GUE/NGL) 0 12 11–13 10–14 10–14 10–14
Bündnis 90/Die Grünen (Greens/EFA) 0 10 9–13 9–13 9–13 8–13
Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern (EPP) 0 5 4–5 4–6 4–6 4–6
Bündnis Sahra Wagenknecht (NI) 0 4 3–4 3–5 3–5 3–5
Freie Demokratische Partei (RE) 0 4 3–4 3–4 3–5 3–5
Freie Wähler (RE) 0 2 2 1–2 1–3 1–3
Partei Mensch Umwelt Tierschutz (GUE/NGL) 0 1 1–2 1–2 1–2 1–2
Volt Europa (Greens/EFA) 0 1 1 1 0–1 0–2
Die PARTEI (NI) 0 1 0–1 0–1 0–1 0–1
Basisdemokratische Partei Deutschland (*) 0 0 0 0 0–1 0–1

Alternative für Deutschland (ESN)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Alternative für Deutschland (ESN) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 0% 100%  
4 0% 100%  
5 0% 100%  
6 0% 100%  
7 0% 100%  
8 0% 100%  
9 0% 100%  
10 0% 100%  
11 0% 100%  
12 0% 100%  
13 0% 100%  
14 0% 100%  
15 0% 100%  
16 0% 100%  
17 0% 100%  
18 0% 100%  
19 0% 100%  
20 0% 100%  
21 0.3% 100%  
22 13% 99.7%  
23 12% 87%  
24 58% 74% Median
25 8% 17%  
26 5% 9%  
27 3% 4%  
28 1.1% 1.4%  
29 0.3% 0.3%  
30 0% 0%  

Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands (EPP)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands (EPP) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 0% 100%  
4 0% 100%  
5 0% 100%  
6 0% 100%  
7 0% 100%  
8 0% 100%  
9 0% 100%  
10 0% 100%  
11 0% 100%  
12 0% 100%  
13 0% 100%  
14 0.1% 100%  
15 0.2% 99.9%  
16 4% 99.8%  
17 22% 96%  
18 47% 74% Median
19 25% 27%  
20 1.2% 2%  
21 0.8% 0.8%  
22 0% 0%  

Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands (S&D)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands (S&D) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 0% 100%  
4 0% 100%  
5 0% 100%  
6 0% 100%  
7 0% 100%  
8 0% 100%  
9 0% 100%  
10 0.1% 100%  
11 3% 99.9%  
12 6% 97%  
13 13% 91%  
14 59% 78% Median
15 17% 19%  
16 1.3% 1.4%  
17 0.1% 0.1%  
18 0% 0%  

Die Linke (GUE/NGL)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Die Linke (GUE/NGL) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 0% 100%  
4 0% 100%  
5 0% 100%  
6 0% 100%  
7 0% 100%  
8 0% 100%  
9 0.4% 100%  
10 8% 99.6%  
11 25% 92%  
12 57% 67% Median
13 4% 10%  
14 6% 6%  
15 0.1% 0.1%  
16 0% 0%  

Bündnis 90/Die Grünen (Greens/EFA)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Bündnis 90/Die Grünen (Greens/EFA) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 0% 100%  
4 0% 100%  
5 0% 100%  
6 0% 100%  
7 0.1% 100%  
8 0.5% 99.9%  
9 18% 99.5%  
10 52% 82% Median
11 13% 30%  
12 3% 17%  
13 13% 13%  
14 0% 0%  

Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern (EPP)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern (EPP) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 0.2% 100%  
4 24% 99.8%  
5 70% 76% Median
6 6% 6%  
7 0.2% 0.2%  
8 0% 0%  

Bündnis Sahra Wagenknecht (NI)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Bündnis Sahra Wagenknecht (NI) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0.2% 100%  
3 23% 99.8%  
4 70% 77% Median
5 6% 7%  
6 0.2% 0.2%  
7 0% 0%  

Freie Demokratische Partei (RE)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Freie Demokratische Partei (RE) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0.3% 100%  
3 16% 99.7%  
4 80% 84% Median
5 4% 5%  
6 0.2% 0.2%  
7 0% 0%  

Freie Wähler (RE)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Freie Wähler (RE) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 6% 100%  
2 91% 94% Median
3 3% 3%  
4 0% 0%  

Partei Mensch Umwelt Tierschutz (GUE/NGL)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Partei Mensch Umwelt Tierschutz (GUE/NGL) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0.5% 100% Last Result
1 89% 99.5% Median
2 11% 11%  
3 0% 0%  

Volt Europa (Greens/EFA)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Volt Europa (Greens/EFA) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 4% 100% Last Result
1 95% 96% Median
2 0.8% 0.8%  
3 0% 0%  

Die PARTEI (NI)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Die PARTEI (NI) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 15% 100% Last Result
1 85% 85% Median
2 0.3% 0.3%  
3 0% 0%  

Basisdemokratische Partei Deutschland (*)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Basisdemokratische Partei Deutschland (*) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 97% 100% Last Result, Median
1 3% 3%  
2 0% 0%  

Coalitions

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Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median Majority? 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Alternative für Deutschland (ESN) 0 24 0% 22–25 22–26 22–27 22–28
Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands (S&D) 0 14 0% 13–15 12–15 11–15 11–16
Freie Demokratische Partei (RE) – Freie Wähler (RE) 0 6 0% 5–6 5–6 5–7 4–7
Bündnis Sahra Wagenknecht (NI) – Die PARTEI (NI) 0 5 0% 4–5 4–5 4–6 3–6

Alternative für Deutschland (ESN)

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 0% 100%  
4 0% 100%  
5 0% 100%  
6 0% 100%  
7 0% 100%  
8 0% 100%  
9 0% 100%  
10 0% 100%  
11 0% 100%  
12 0% 100%  
13 0% 100%  
14 0% 100%  
15 0% 100%  
16 0% 100%  
17 0% 100%  
18 0% 100%  
19 0% 100%  
20 0% 100%  
21 0.3% 100%  
22 13% 99.7%  
23 12% 87%  
24 58% 74% Median
25 8% 17%  
26 5% 9%  
27 3% 4%  
28 1.1% 1.4%  
29 0.3% 0.3%  
30 0% 0%  

Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands (S&D)

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 0% 100%  
4 0% 100%  
5 0% 100%  
6 0% 100%  
7 0% 100%  
8 0% 100%  
9 0% 100%  
10 0.1% 100%  
11 3% 99.9%  
12 6% 97%  
13 13% 91%  
14 59% 78% Median
15 17% 19%  
16 1.3% 1.4%  
17 0.1% 0.1%  
18 0% 0%  

Freie Demokratische Partei (RE) – Freie Wähler (RE)

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 0% 100%  
4 2% 100%  
5 15% 98%  
6 78% 83% Median
7 5% 5%  
8 0.2% 0.2%  
9 0% 0%  

Bündnis Sahra Wagenknecht (NI) – Die PARTEI (NI)

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 2% 100%  
4 31% 98%  
5 63% 67% Median
6 4% 4%  
7 0.1% 0.1%  
8 0% 0%  

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

Calculations