Opinion Poll by INSA and YouGov for BILD, 6–10 October 2025

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Alternative für Deutschland (ESN) 0.0% 26.0% 24.4–27.6% 24.0–28.1% 23.6–28.5% 22.9–29.3%
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands (EPP) 0.0% 19.0% 17.6–20.5% 17.2–20.9% 16.9–21.3% 16.2–22.0%
Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands (S&D) 0.0% 14.0% 12.8–15.3% 12.4–15.7% 12.1–16.0% 11.6–16.7%
Bündnis 90/Die Grünen (Greens/EFA) 0.0% 12.0% 10.9–13.3% 10.6–13.6% 10.3–14.0% 9.8–14.6%
Die Linke (GUE/NGL) 0.0% 11.0% 10.0–12.3% 9.6–12.6% 9.4–12.9% 8.9–13.5%
Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern (EPP) 0.0% 5.1% 4.3–6.0% 4.1–6.2% 4.0–6.4% 3.6–6.9%
Bündnis Sahra Wagenknecht (NI) 0.0% 4.0% 3.4–4.8% 3.2–5.1% 3.0–5.3% 2.8–5.7%
Freie Demokratische Partei (RE) 0.0% 4.0% 3.4–4.8% 3.2–5.1% 3.0–5.3% 2.8–5.7%
Freie Wähler (RE) 0.0% 1.7% 1.3–2.3% 1.2–2.5% 1.1–2.6% 1.0–2.9%
Partei Mensch Umwelt Tierschutz (GUE/NGL) 0.0% 1.1% 0.8–1.6% 0.7–1.7% 0.6–1.8% 0.5–2.1%
Volt Europa (Greens/EFA) 0.0% 0.8% 0.6–1.3% 0.5–1.4% 0.4–1.5% 0.4–1.8%
Die PARTEI (NI) 0.0% 0.6% 0.4–1.0% 0.3–1.1% 0.3–1.2% 0.2–1.4%
Basisdemokratische Partei Deutschland (*) 0.0% 0.2% 0.1–0.4% 0.1–0.5% 0.0–0.6% 0.0–0.8%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Alternative für Deutschland (ESN) 0 24 24 23–25 23–26 23–27
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands (EPP) 0 18 18 18–19 17–20 16–20
Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands (S&D) 0 14 14 13–14 12–15 12–16
Bündnis 90/Die Grünen (Greens/EFA) 0 11 11 11–12 10–13 10–14
Die Linke (GUE/NGL) 0 10 10 10–11 9–11 9–12
Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern (EPP) 0 5 5 5 4–6 4–7
Bündnis Sahra Wagenknecht (NI) 0 4 4 4 3–5 3–5
Freie Demokratische Partei (RE) 0 4 4 3–4 3–4 3–5
Freie Wähler (RE) 0 2 2 1–2 1–2 1–2
Partei Mensch Umwelt Tierschutz (GUE/NGL) 0 1 1 1 1 1–2
Volt Europa (Greens/EFA) 0 1 1 1 1 1
Die PARTEI (NI) 0 1 1 0–1 0–1 0–1
Basisdemokratische Partei Deutschland (*) 0 0 0 0 0 0–1

Alternative für Deutschland (ESN)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Alternative für Deutschland (ESN) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 0% 100%  
4 0% 100%  
5 0% 100%  
6 0% 100%  
7 0% 100%  
8 0% 100%  
9 0% 100%  
10 0% 100%  
11 0% 100%  
12 0% 100%  
13 0% 100%  
14 0% 100%  
15 0% 100%  
16 0% 100%  
17 0% 100%  
18 0% 100%  
19 0% 100%  
20 0% 100%  
21 0% 100%  
22 0.1% 100%  
23 5% 99.8%  
24 85% 95% Median
25 7% 10%  
26 3% 3%  
27 0.3% 0.6%  
28 0.3% 0.3%  
29 0% 0%  

Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands (EPP)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands (EPP) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 0% 100%  
4 0% 100%  
5 0% 100%  
6 0% 100%  
7 0% 100%  
8 0% 100%  
9 0% 100%  
10 0% 100%  
11 0% 100%  
12 0% 100%  
13 0% 100%  
14 0% 100%  
15 0.2% 100%  
16 0.3% 99.8%  
17 4% 99.5%  
18 87% 96% Median
19 5% 9%  
20 3% 3%  
21 0.1% 0.2%  
22 0.1% 0.1%  
23 0% 0%  

Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands (S&D)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands (S&D) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 0% 100%  
4 0% 100%  
5 0% 100%  
6 0% 100%  
7 0% 100%  
8 0% 100%  
9 0% 100%  
10 0% 100%  
11 0.2% 100%  
12 2% 99.8%  
13 5% 97%  
14 90% 93% Median
15 0.5% 3%  
16 2% 2%  
17 0% 0%  

Bündnis 90/Die Grünen (Greens/EFA)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Bündnis 90/Die Grünen (Greens/EFA) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 0% 100%  
4 0% 100%  
5 0% 100%  
6 0% 100%  
7 0% 100%  
8 0% 100%  
9 0.1% 100%  
10 4% 99.9%  
11 88% 96% Median
12 4% 9%  
13 3% 4%  
14 1.2% 1.2%  
15 0% 0%  

Die Linke (GUE/NGL)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Die Linke (GUE/NGL) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 0% 100%  
4 0% 100%  
5 0% 100%  
6 0% 100%  
7 0% 100%  
8 0.1% 100%  
9 4% 99.9%  
10 90% 96% Median
11 5% 6%  
12 0.9% 1.0%  
13 0.1% 0.1%  
14 0% 0%  

Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern (EPP)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern (EPP) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 0.1% 100%  
4 4% 99.9%  
5 93% 96% Median
6 3% 3%  
7 0.6% 0.6%  
8 0% 0%  

Bündnis Sahra Wagenknecht (NI)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Bündnis Sahra Wagenknecht (NI) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 3% 100%  
4 93% 97% Median
5 4% 4%  
6 0% 0%  

Freie Demokratische Partei (RE)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Freie Demokratische Partei (RE) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0.2% 100%  
3 5% 99.8%  
4 94% 94% Median
5 0.5% 0.6%  
6 0% 0%  

Freie Wähler (RE)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Freie Wähler (RE) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 6% 100%  
2 93% 94% Median
3 0.4% 0.4%  
4 0% 0%  

Partei Mensch Umwelt Tierschutz (GUE/NGL)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Partei Mensch Umwelt Tierschutz (GUE/NGL) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 98% 100% Median
2 2% 2%  
3 0% 0%  

Volt Europa (Greens/EFA)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Volt Europa (Greens/EFA) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0.2% 100% Last Result
1 99.6% 99.8% Median
2 0.2% 0.2%  
3 0% 0%  

Die PARTEI (NI)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Die PARTEI (NI) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 8% 100% Last Result
1 92% 92% Median
2 0% 0%  

Basisdemokratische Partei Deutschland (*)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Basisdemokratische Partei Deutschland (*) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 99.4% 100% Last Result, Median
1 0.6% 0.6%  
2 0% 0%  

Coalitions

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Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median Majority? 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Alternative für Deutschland (ESN) 0 24 0% 24 23–25 23–26 23–27
Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands (S&D) 0 14 0% 14 13–14 12–15 12–16
Freie Demokratische Partei (RE) – Freie Wähler (RE) 0 6 0% 5–6 5–6 5–6 4–7
Bündnis Sahra Wagenknecht (NI) – Die PARTEI (NI) 0 5 0% 5 4–5 4–6 3–6

Alternative für Deutschland (ESN)

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 0% 100%  
4 0% 100%  
5 0% 100%  
6 0% 100%  
7 0% 100%  
8 0% 100%  
9 0% 100%  
10 0% 100%  
11 0% 100%  
12 0% 100%  
13 0% 100%  
14 0% 100%  
15 0% 100%  
16 0% 100%  
17 0% 100%  
18 0% 100%  
19 0% 100%  
20 0% 100%  
21 0% 100%  
22 0.1% 100%  
23 5% 99.8%  
24 85% 95% Median
25 7% 10%  
26 3% 3%  
27 0.3% 0.6%  
28 0.3% 0.3%  
29 0% 0%  

Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands (S&D)

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 0% 100%  
4 0% 100%  
5 0% 100%  
6 0% 100%  
7 0% 100%  
8 0% 100%  
9 0% 100%  
10 0% 100%  
11 0.2% 100%  
12 2% 99.8%  
13 5% 97%  
14 90% 93% Median
15 0.5% 3%  
16 2% 2%  
17 0% 0%  

Freie Demokratische Partei (RE) – Freie Wähler (RE)

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 0.1% 100%  
4 0.5% 99.9%  
5 10% 99.4%  
6 88% 89% Median
7 0.6% 0.7%  
8 0% 0%  

Bündnis Sahra Wagenknecht (NI) – Die PARTEI (NI)

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 2% 100%  
4 7% 98%  
5 88% 91% Median
6 3% 3%  
7 0% 0%  

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

Calculations