Opinion Poll by INSA and YouGov for BILD, 13–17 October 2025

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Alternative für Deutschland (ESN) 0.0% 27.0% 25.4–28.7% 25.0–29.2% 24.6–29.6% 23.8–30.4%
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands (EPP) 0.0% 19.8% 18.3–21.3% 17.9–21.7% 17.6–22.1% 16.9–22.9%
Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands (S&D) 0.0% 14.0% 12.8–15.4% 12.4–15.7% 12.1–16.1% 11.6–16.8%
Die Linke (GUE/NGL) 0.0% 11.0% 9.9–12.2% 9.6–12.6% 9.3–12.9% 8.9–13.5%
Bündnis 90/Die Grünen (Greens/EFA) 0.0% 11.0% 9.9–12.2% 9.6–12.6% 9.3–12.9% 8.9–13.5%
Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern (EPP) 0.0% 5.2% 4.5–6.2% 4.3–6.4% 4.1–6.7% 3.8–7.1%
Bündnis Sahra Wagenknecht (NI) 0.0% 4.0% 3.4–4.8% 3.2–5.1% 3.0–5.3% 2.7–5.7%
Freie Demokratische Partei (RE) 0.0% 4.0% 3.4–4.8% 3.2–5.1% 3.0–5.3% 2.7–5.7%
Freie Wähler (RE) 0.0% 1.3% 1.0–1.9% 0.9–2.0% 0.8–2.2% 0.7–2.5%
Partei Mensch Umwelt Tierschutz (GUE/NGL) 0.0% 0.8% 0.6–1.3% 0.5–1.4% 0.5–1.5% 0.4–1.8%
Volt Europa (Greens/EFA) 0.0% 0.7% 0.4–1.1% 0.4–1.2% 0.3–1.3% 0.3–1.6%
Die PARTEI (NI) 0.0% 0.4% 0.3–0.8% 0.2–0.9% 0.2–1.0% 0.1–1.2%
Basisdemokratische Partei Deutschland (*) 0.0% 0.2% 0.1–0.5% 0.1–0.5% 0.0–0.6% 0.0–0.8%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Alternative für Deutschland (ESN) 0 25 23–27 23–28 23–29 22–29
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands (EPP) 0 19 17–21 17–21 17–21 16–22
Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands (S&D) 0 14 13–15 12–15 11–15 11–16
Die Linke (GUE/NGL) 0 11 10–12 9–12 9–13 9–14
Bündnis 90/Die Grünen (Greens/EFA) 0 11 9–12 9–12 9–12 8–13
Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern (EPP) 0 5 4–6 4–6 4–6 4–7
Bündnis Sahra Wagenknecht (NI) 0 4 3–4 3–5 3–5 2–6
Freie Demokratische Partei (RE) 0 4 3–4 3–5 3–5 2–5
Freie Wähler (RE) 0 1 1–2 1–2 1–2 1–2
Partei Mensch Umwelt Tierschutz (GUE/NGL) 0 1 1 1 0–1 0–2
Volt Europa (Greens/EFA) 0 1 0–1 0–1 0–1 0–2
Die PARTEI (NI) 0 0 0–1 0–1 0–1 0–1
Basisdemokratische Partei Deutschland (*) 0 0 0–1 0–1 0–1 0–1

Alternative für Deutschland (ESN)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Alternative für Deutschland (ESN) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 0% 100%  
4 0% 100%  
5 0% 100%  
6 0% 100%  
7 0% 100%  
8 0% 100%  
9 0% 100%  
10 0% 100%  
11 0% 100%  
12 0% 100%  
13 0% 100%  
14 0% 100%  
15 0% 100%  
16 0% 100%  
17 0% 100%  
18 0% 100%  
19 0% 100%  
20 0% 100%  
21 0.1% 100%  
22 0.7% 99.9%  
23 16% 99.3%  
24 13% 83%  
25 28% 71% Median
26 29% 43%  
27 9% 14%  
28 3% 5%  
29 2% 3%  
30 0.1% 0.1%  
31 0% 0%  

Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands (EPP)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands (EPP) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 0% 100%  
4 0% 100%  
5 0% 100%  
6 0% 100%  
7 0% 100%  
8 0% 100%  
9 0% 100%  
10 0% 100%  
11 0% 100%  
12 0% 100%  
13 0% 100%  
14 0% 100%  
15 0% 100%  
16 1.0% 100%  
17 17% 99.0%  
18 29% 82%  
19 17% 53% Median
20 24% 36%  
21 11% 12%  
22 0.6% 0.6%  
23 0% 0%  

Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands (S&D)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands (S&D) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 0% 100%  
4 0% 100%  
5 0% 100%  
6 0% 100%  
7 0% 100%  
8 0% 100%  
9 0% 100%  
10 0.2% 100%  
11 2% 99.8%  
12 5% 97%  
13 23% 93%  
14 58% 70% Median
15 11% 12%  
16 1.1% 1.2%  
17 0.1% 0.1%  
18 0% 0%  

Die Linke (GUE/NGL)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Die Linke (GUE/NGL) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 0% 100%  
4 0% 100%  
5 0% 100%  
6 0% 100%  
7 0% 100%  
8 0.2% 100%  
9 9% 99.8%  
10 35% 91%  
11 31% 55% Median
12 21% 24%  
13 2% 3%  
14 0.6% 0.6%  
15 0% 0%  

Bündnis 90/Die Grünen (Greens/EFA)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Bündnis 90/Die Grünen (Greens/EFA) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 0% 100%  
4 0% 100%  
5 0% 100%  
6 0% 100%  
7 0.1% 100%  
8 0.9% 99.9%  
9 14% 99.0%  
10 30% 85%  
11 22% 54% Median
12 32% 33%  
13 0.4% 0.8%  
14 0.4% 0.4%  
15 0% 0%  

Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern (EPP)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern (EPP) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 0.1% 100%  
4 46% 99.9%  
5 37% 54% Median
6 15% 17%  
7 1.4% 1.4%  
8 0% 0%  

Bündnis Sahra Wagenknecht (NI)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Bündnis Sahra Wagenknecht (NI) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0.7% 100%  
3 27% 99.3%  
4 67% 72% Median
5 4% 5%  
6 1.4% 1.4%  
7 0% 0%  

Freie Demokratische Partei (RE)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Freie Demokratische Partei (RE) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 1.2% 100%  
3 23% 98.8%  
4 68% 76% Median
5 8% 9%  
6 0.2% 0.2%  
7 0% 0%  

Freie Wähler (RE)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Freie Wähler (RE) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 69% 100% Median
2 31% 31%  
3 0.3% 0.3%  
4 0% 0%  

Partei Mensch Umwelt Tierschutz (GUE/NGL)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Partei Mensch Umwelt Tierschutz (GUE/NGL) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 4% 100% Last Result
1 94% 96% Median
2 2% 2%  
3 0% 0%  

Volt Europa (Greens/EFA)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Volt Europa (Greens/EFA) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 14% 100% Last Result
1 86% 86% Median
2 0.9% 0.9%  
3 0% 0%  

Die PARTEI (NI)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Die PARTEI (NI) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 67% 100% Last Result, Median
1 33% 33%  
2 0% 0%  

Basisdemokratische Partei Deutschland (*)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Basisdemokratische Partei Deutschland (*) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 80% 100% Last Result, Median
1 20% 20%  
2 0% 0%  

Coalitions

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Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median Majority? 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Alternative für Deutschland (ESN) 0 25 0% 23–27 23–28 23–29 22–29
Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands (S&D) 0 14 0% 13–15 12–15 11–15 11–16
Freie Demokratische Partei (RE) – Freie Wähler (RE) 0 5 0% 4–6 4–7 4–7 3–7
Bündnis Sahra Wagenknecht (NI) – Die PARTEI (NI) 0 4 0% 3–5 3–5 3–6 2–7

Alternative für Deutschland (ESN)

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 0% 100%  
4 0% 100%  
5 0% 100%  
6 0% 100%  
7 0% 100%  
8 0% 100%  
9 0% 100%  
10 0% 100%  
11 0% 100%  
12 0% 100%  
13 0% 100%  
14 0% 100%  
15 0% 100%  
16 0% 100%  
17 0% 100%  
18 0% 100%  
19 0% 100%  
20 0% 100%  
21 0.1% 100%  
22 0.7% 99.9%  
23 16% 99.3%  
24 13% 83%  
25 28% 71% Median
26 29% 43%  
27 9% 14%  
28 3% 5%  
29 2% 3%  
30 0.1% 0.1%  
31 0% 0%  

Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands (S&D)

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 0% 100%  
4 0% 100%  
5 0% 100%  
6 0% 100%  
7 0% 100%  
8 0% 100%  
9 0% 100%  
10 0.2% 100%  
11 2% 99.8%  
12 5% 97%  
13 23% 93%  
14 58% 70% Median
15 11% 12%  
16 1.1% 1.2%  
17 0.1% 0.1%  
18 0% 0%  

Freie Demokratische Partei (RE) – Freie Wähler (RE)

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 1.1% 100%  
4 16% 98.9%  
5 56% 83% Median
6 21% 27%  
7 6% 6%  
8 0% 0%  

Bündnis Sahra Wagenknecht (NI) – Die PARTEI (NI)

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0.6% 100%  
3 12% 99.4%  
4 67% 87% Median
5 16% 20%  
6 3% 4%  
7 1.2% 1.2%  
8 0% 0%  

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

Calculations