Opinion Poll by Forsa for RTL n-tv, 14–20 October 2025

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Alternative für Deutschland (ESN) 0.0% 26.0% 24.8–27.3% 24.4–27.7% 24.1–28.0% 23.5–28.7%
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands (EPP) 0.0% 19.0% 17.9–20.2% 17.5–20.5% 17.3–20.8% 16.8–21.4%
Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands (S&D) 0.0% 14.0% 13.0–15.1% 12.7–15.4% 12.5–15.6% 12.1–16.1%
Bündnis 90/Die Grünen (Greens/EFA) 0.0% 12.0% 11.1–13.0% 10.8–13.3% 10.6–13.5% 10.2–14.0%
Die Linke (GUE/NGL) 0.0% 11.0% 10.1–12.0% 9.9–12.2% 9.7–12.5% 9.3–13.0%
Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern (EPP) 0.0% 5.0% 4.4–5.7% 4.3–5.9% 4.1–6.1% 3.9–6.5%
Bündnis Sahra Wagenknecht (NI) 0.0% 4.0% 3.5–4.6% 3.3–4.8% 3.2–5.0% 3.0–5.3%
Freie Demokratische Partei (RE) 0.0% 3.0% 2.6–3.6% 2.4–3.7% 2.3–3.9% 2.1–4.2%
Freie Wähler (RE) 0.0% 2.0% 1.7–2.5% 1.6–2.6% 1.5–2.8% 1.3–3.0%
Partei Mensch Umwelt Tierschutz (GUE/NGL) 0.0% 1.3% 1.0–1.7% 0.9–1.8% 0.9–1.9% 0.8–2.1%
Volt Europa (Greens/EFA) 0.0% 0.9% 0.7–1.3% 0.6–1.4% 0.6–1.5% 0.5–1.7%
Die PARTEI (NI) 0.0% 0.6% 0.4–0.9% 0.4–1.0% 0.4–1.1% 0.3–1.2%
Basisdemokratische Partei Deutschland (*) 0.0% 0.2% 0.1–0.4% 0.1–0.5% 0.1–0.5% 0.0–0.7%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Alternative für Deutschland (ESN) 0 24 24–26 24–26 23–26 23–27
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands (EPP) 0 19 16–19 16–20 16–20 16–20
Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands (S&D) 0 13 12–14 12–14 12–15 12–16
Bündnis 90/Die Grünen (Greens/EFA) 0 12 11–13 11–13 10–13 10–13
Die Linke (GUE/NGL) 0 11 10–11 10–12 9–12 9–12
Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern (EPP) 0 5 4–5 4–6 4–6 4–6
Bündnis Sahra Wagenknecht (NI) 0 3 3–4 3–5 3–5 3–5
Freie Demokratische Partei (RE) 0 3 3 2–3 2–4 2–4
Freie Wähler (RE) 0 2 2–3 2–3 1–3 1–3
Partei Mensch Umwelt Tierschutz (GUE/NGL) 0 2 1–2 1–2 1–2 1–2
Volt Europa (Greens/EFA) 0 1 1 1 1 0–2
Die PARTEI (NI) 0 0 0–1 0–1 0–1 0–1
Basisdemokratische Partei Deutschland (*) 0 0 0 0 0–1 0–1

Alternative für Deutschland (ESN)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Alternative für Deutschland (ESN) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 0% 100%  
4 0% 100%  
5 0% 100%  
6 0% 100%  
7 0% 100%  
8 0% 100%  
9 0% 100%  
10 0% 100%  
11 0% 100%  
12 0% 100%  
13 0% 100%  
14 0% 100%  
15 0% 100%  
16 0% 100%  
17 0% 100%  
18 0% 100%  
19 0% 100%  
20 0% 100%  
21 0.1% 100%  
22 0.2% 99.9%  
23 4% 99.7%  
24 56% 95% Median
25 14% 39%  
26 24% 25%  
27 0.9% 1.1%  
28 0.1% 0.2%  
29 0.1% 0.1%  
30 0% 0%  

Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands (EPP)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands (EPP) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 0% 100%  
4 0% 100%  
5 0% 100%  
6 0% 100%  
7 0% 100%  
8 0% 100%  
9 0% 100%  
10 0% 100%  
11 0% 100%  
12 0% 100%  
13 0% 100%  
14 0% 100%  
15 0.1% 100%  
16 11% 99.9%  
17 22% 89%  
18 12% 67%  
19 47% 55% Median
20 7% 8%  
21 0.5% 0.5%  
22 0% 0%  

Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands (S&D)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands (S&D) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 0% 100%  
4 0% 100%  
5 0% 100%  
6 0% 100%  
7 0% 100%  
8 0% 100%  
9 0% 100%  
10 0% 100%  
11 0.5% 100%  
12 19% 99.5%  
13 62% 80% Median
14 15% 19%  
15 3% 4%  
16 0.5% 0.6%  
17 0% 0%  

Bündnis 90/Die Grünen (Greens/EFA)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Bündnis 90/Die Grünen (Greens/EFA) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 0% 100%  
4 0% 100%  
5 0% 100%  
6 0% 100%  
7 0% 100%  
8 0% 100%  
9 0.2% 100%  
10 4% 99.8%  
11 22% 96%  
12 60% 73% Median
13 13% 14%  
14 0.4% 0.4%  
15 0% 0%  

Die Linke (GUE/NGL)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Die Linke (GUE/NGL) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 0% 100%  
4 0% 100%  
5 0% 100%  
6 0% 100%  
7 0% 100%  
8 0.1% 100%  
9 5% 99.9%  
10 20% 95%  
11 70% 76% Median
12 6% 6%  
13 0.1% 0.1%  
14 0% 0%  

Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern (EPP)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern (EPP) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 0.1% 100%  
4 13% 99.9%  
5 82% 87% Median
6 5% 5%  
7 0.1% 0.1%  
8 0% 0%  

Bündnis Sahra Wagenknecht (NI)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Bündnis Sahra Wagenknecht (NI) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0.1% 100%  
3 51% 99.9% Median
4 44% 49%  
5 5% 5%  
6 0% 0%  

Freie Demokratische Partei (RE)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Freie Demokratische Partei (RE) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 8% 100%  
3 88% 92% Median
4 5% 5%  
5 0% 0%  

Freie Wähler (RE)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Freie Wähler (RE) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 3% 100%  
2 80% 97% Median
3 17% 17%  
4 0% 0%  

Partei Mensch Umwelt Tierschutz (GUE/NGL)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Partei Mensch Umwelt Tierschutz (GUE/NGL) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 49% 100%  
2 51% 51% Median
3 0% 0%  

Volt Europa (Greens/EFA)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Volt Europa (Greens/EFA) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 1.0% 100% Last Result
1 98% 99.0% Median
2 1.3% 1.3%  
3 0% 0%  

Die PARTEI (NI)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Die PARTEI (NI) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 55% 100% Last Result, Median
1 45% 45%  
2 0% 0%  

Basisdemokratische Partei Deutschland (*)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Basisdemokratische Partei Deutschland (*) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 97% 100% Last Result, Median
1 3% 3%  
2 0% 0%  

Coalitions

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Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median Majority? 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Alternative für Deutschland (ESN) 0 24 0% 24–26 24–26 23–26 23–27
Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands (S&D) 0 13 0% 12–14 12–14 12–15 12–16
Freie Demokratische Partei (RE) – Freie Wähler (RE) 0 5 0% 5–6 4–6 4–6 4–7
Bündnis Sahra Wagenknecht (NI) – Die PARTEI (NI) 0 4 0% 3–5 3–5 3–6 3–6

Alternative für Deutschland (ESN)

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 0% 100%  
4 0% 100%  
5 0% 100%  
6 0% 100%  
7 0% 100%  
8 0% 100%  
9 0% 100%  
10 0% 100%  
11 0% 100%  
12 0% 100%  
13 0% 100%  
14 0% 100%  
15 0% 100%  
16 0% 100%  
17 0% 100%  
18 0% 100%  
19 0% 100%  
20 0% 100%  
21 0.1% 100%  
22 0.2% 99.9%  
23 4% 99.7%  
24 56% 95% Median
25 14% 39%  
26 24% 25%  
27 0.9% 1.1%  
28 0.1% 0.2%  
29 0.1% 0.1%  
30 0% 0%  

Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands (S&D)

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 0% 100%  
4 0% 100%  
5 0% 100%  
6 0% 100%  
7 0% 100%  
8 0% 100%  
9 0% 100%  
10 0% 100%  
11 0.5% 100%  
12 19% 99.5%  
13 62% 80% Median
14 15% 19%  
15 3% 4%  
16 0.5% 0.6%  
17 0% 0%  

Freie Demokratische Partei (RE) – Freie Wähler (RE)

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 0.1% 100%  
4 8% 99.9%  
5 73% 92% Median
6 18% 19%  
7 0.8% 0.8%  
8 0% 0%  

Bündnis Sahra Wagenknecht (NI) – Die PARTEI (NI)

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 37% 100% Median
4 30% 63%  
5 29% 33%  
6 3% 3%  
7 0% 0%  

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

Calculations