Opinion Poll by INSA and YouGov for BILD, 17–20 October 2025

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Alternative für Deutschland (ESN) 0.0% 27.0% 25.8–28.3% 25.4–28.7% 25.1–29.0% 24.5–29.6%
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands (EPP) 0.0% 19.7% 18.6–20.9% 18.3–21.2% 18.0–21.5% 17.5–22.1%
Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands (S&D) 0.0% 14.0% 13.0–15.1% 12.8–15.3% 12.5–15.6% 12.1–16.1%
Die Linke (GUE/NGL) 0.0% 11.0% 10.2–12.0% 9.9–12.2% 9.7–12.5% 9.3–12.9%
Bündnis 90/Die Grünen (Greens/EFA) 0.0% 11.0% 10.2–12.0% 9.9–12.2% 9.7–12.5% 9.3–12.9%
Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern (EPP) 0.0% 4.8% 4.2–5.5% 4.1–5.7% 3.9–5.8% 3.7–6.2%
Bündnis Sahra Wagenknecht (NI) 0.0% 4.5% 3.9–5.1% 3.8–5.3% 3.7–5.5% 3.4–5.8%
Freie Demokratische Partei (RE) 0.0% 4.0% 3.5–4.6% 3.3–4.8% 3.2–4.9% 3.0–5.3%
Freie Wähler (RE) 0.0% 1.3% 1.1–1.8% 1.0–1.9% 0.9–2.0% 0.8–2.2%
Partei Mensch Umwelt Tierschutz (GUE/NGL) 0.0% 0.8% 0.6–1.2% 0.6–1.3% 0.5–1.4% 0.4–1.5%
Volt Europa (Greens/EFA) 0.0% 0.6% 0.5–0.9% 0.4–1.0% 0.4–1.1% 0.3–1.3%
Die PARTEI (NI) 0.0% 0.4% 0.3–0.7% 0.3–0.8% 0.2–0.9% 0.2–1.0%
Basisdemokratische Partei Deutschland (*) 0.0% 0.1% 0.1–0.3% 0.1–0.4% 0.0–0.4% 0.0–0.5%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Alternative für Deutschland (ESN) 0 26 25–28 25–28 24–28 24–28
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands (EPP) 0 19 18–20 17–20 17–21 17–22
Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands (S&D) 0 13 12–14 12–15 12–15 11–16
Die Linke (GUE/NGL) 0 11 10–12 10–12 9–12 9–13
Bündnis 90/Die Grünen (Greens/EFA) 0 11 10–12 9–12 9–12 9–13
Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern (EPP) 0 5 4–5 3–5 3–5 3–6
Bündnis Sahra Wagenknecht (NI) 0 4 4–5 4–5 4–5 3–6
Freie Demokratische Partei (RE) 0 4 3–4 3–5 3–5 3–6
Freie Wähler (RE) 0 1 1–2 1–2 1–2 1–2
Partei Mensch Umwelt Tierschutz (GUE/NGL) 0 1 1 1 1 0–2
Volt Europa (Greens/EFA) 0 1 0–1 0–1 0–1 0–1
Die PARTEI (NI) 0 1 0–1 0–1 0–1 0–1
Basisdemokratische Partei Deutschland (*) 0 0 0 0 0 0–1

Alternative für Deutschland (ESN)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Alternative für Deutschland (ESN) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 0% 100%  
4 0% 100%  
5 0% 100%  
6 0% 100%  
7 0% 100%  
8 0% 100%  
9 0% 100%  
10 0% 100%  
11 0% 100%  
12 0% 100%  
13 0% 100%  
14 0% 100%  
15 0% 100%  
16 0% 100%  
17 0% 100%  
18 0% 100%  
19 0% 100%  
20 0% 100%  
21 0% 100%  
22 0% 100%  
23 0.4% 100%  
24 3% 99.5%  
25 27% 96%  
26 31% 69% Median
27 25% 39%  
28 14% 14%  
29 0.1% 0.1%  
30 0% 0%  

Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands (EPP)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands (EPP) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 0% 100%  
4 0% 100%  
5 0% 100%  
6 0% 100%  
7 0% 100%  
8 0% 100%  
9 0% 100%  
10 0% 100%  
11 0% 100%  
12 0% 100%  
13 0% 100%  
14 0% 100%  
15 0% 100%  
16 0.4% 100%  
17 8% 99.6%  
18 40% 92%  
19 30% 52% Median
20 19% 22%  
21 2% 3%  
22 1.0% 1.0%  
23 0% 0%  

Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands (S&D)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands (S&D) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 0% 100%  
4 0% 100%  
5 0% 100%  
6 0% 100%  
7 0% 100%  
8 0% 100%  
9 0% 100%  
10 0% 100%  
11 0.7% 100%  
12 30% 99.3%  
13 38% 69% Median
14 23% 31%  
15 7% 9%  
16 1.4% 1.4%  
17 0% 0%  

Die Linke (GUE/NGL)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Die Linke (GUE/NGL) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 0% 100%  
4 0% 100%  
5 0% 100%  
6 0% 100%  
7 0% 100%  
8 0.1% 100%  
9 3% 99.9%  
10 21% 97%  
11 64% 76% Median
12 11% 12%  
13 0.5% 0.5%  
14 0% 0%  

Bündnis 90/Die Grünen (Greens/EFA)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Bündnis 90/Die Grünen (Greens/EFA) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 0% 100%  
4 0% 100%  
5 0% 100%  
6 0% 100%  
7 0% 100%  
8 0.1% 100%  
9 7% 99.9%  
10 40% 93%  
11 37% 53% Median
12 15% 15%  
13 0.6% 0.6%  
14 0% 0%  

Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern (EPP)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern (EPP) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 9% 100%  
4 39% 91%  
5 50% 52% Median
6 2% 2%  
7 0% 0%  

Bündnis Sahra Wagenknecht (NI)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Bündnis Sahra Wagenknecht (NI) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 2% 100%  
4 76% 98% Median
5 21% 22%  
6 0.7% 0.7%  
7 0% 0%  

Freie Demokratische Partei (RE)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Freie Demokratische Partei (RE) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 46% 100%  
4 48% 54% Median
5 6% 6%  
6 0.5% 0.5%  
7 0% 0%  

Freie Wähler (RE)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Freie Wähler (RE) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 52% 100% Median
2 47% 48%  
3 0.1% 0.1%  
4 0% 0%  

Partei Mensch Umwelt Tierschutz (GUE/NGL)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Partei Mensch Umwelt Tierschutz (GUE/NGL) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 1.2% 100% Last Result
1 98% 98.8% Median
2 1.2% 1.2%  
3 0% 0%  

Volt Europa (Greens/EFA)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Volt Europa (Greens/EFA) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 35% 100% Last Result
1 65% 65% Median
2 0% 0%  

Die PARTEI (NI)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Die PARTEI (NI) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 38% 100% Last Result
1 62% 62% Median
2 0% 0%  

Basisdemokratische Partei Deutschland (*)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Basisdemokratische Partei Deutschland (*) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 98% 100% Last Result, Median
1 2% 2%  
2 0% 0%  

Coalitions

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Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median Majority? 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Alternative für Deutschland (ESN) 0 26 0% 25–28 25–28 24–28 24–28
Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands (S&D) 0 13 0% 12–14 12–15 12–15 11–16
Bündnis Sahra Wagenknecht (NI) – Die PARTEI (NI) 0 5 0% 4–6 4–6 4–6 3–6
Freie Demokratische Partei (RE) – Freie Wähler (RE) 0 5 0% 4–6 4–6 4–6 4–7

Alternative für Deutschland (ESN)

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 0% 100%  
4 0% 100%  
5 0% 100%  
6 0% 100%  
7 0% 100%  
8 0% 100%  
9 0% 100%  
10 0% 100%  
11 0% 100%  
12 0% 100%  
13 0% 100%  
14 0% 100%  
15 0% 100%  
16 0% 100%  
17 0% 100%  
18 0% 100%  
19 0% 100%  
20 0% 100%  
21 0% 100%  
22 0% 100%  
23 0.4% 100%  
24 3% 99.5%  
25 27% 96%  
26 31% 69% Median
27 25% 39%  
28 14% 14%  
29 0.1% 0.1%  
30 0% 0%  

Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands (S&D)

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 0% 100%  
4 0% 100%  
5 0% 100%  
6 0% 100%  
7 0% 100%  
8 0% 100%  
9 0% 100%  
10 0% 100%  
11 0.7% 100%  
12 30% 99.3%  
13 38% 69% Median
14 23% 31%  
15 7% 9%  
16 1.4% 1.4%  
17 0% 0%  

Bündnis Sahra Wagenknecht (NI) – Die PARTEI (NI)

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 0.7% 100%  
4 29% 99.3%  
5 59% 71% Median
6 11% 12%  
7 0.3% 0.3%  
8 0% 0%  

Freie Demokratische Partei (RE) – Freie Wähler (RE)

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 0% 100%  
4 25% 100%  
5 43% 75% Median
6 31% 32%  
7 2% 2%  
8 0% 0%  

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

Calculations