Opinion Poll by Forschungsgruppe Wahlen for ZDF, 21–23 October 2025
Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information
Voting Intentions
Confidence Intervals
| Party | Last Result | Poll Result | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alternative für Deutschland (ESN) | 0.0% | 25.0% | 23.4–26.7% | 23.0–27.2% | 22.6–27.6% | 21.8–28.5% |
| Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands (EPP) | 0.0% | 21.4% | 19.8–23.0% | 19.4–23.5% | 19.1–23.9% | 18.4–24.7% |
| Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands (S&D) | 0.0% | 15.0% | 13.7–16.5% | 13.4–16.9% | 13.0–17.2% | 12.4–18.0% |
| Bündnis 90/Die Grünen (Greens/EFA) | 0.0% | 11.0% | 9.9–12.3% | 9.6–12.7% | 9.3–13.0% | 8.8–13.6% |
| Die Linke (GUE/NGL) | 0.0% | 10.0% | 8.9–11.2% | 8.6–11.6% | 8.4–11.9% | 7.9–12.5% |
| Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern (EPP) | 0.0% | 5.7% | 4.9–6.7% | 4.7–7.0% | 4.5–7.2% | 4.1–7.7% |
| Bündnis Sahra Wagenknecht (NI) | 0.0% | 4.3% | 3.6–5.2% | 3.4–5.4% | 3.2–5.7% | 2.9–6.1% |
| Freie Demokratische Partei (RE) | 0.0% | 3.7% | 3.0–4.5% | 2.9–4.7% | 2.7–4.9% | 2.4–5.4% |
| Freie Wähler (RE) | 0.0% | 1.3% | 1.0–1.9% | 0.9–2.1% | 0.8–2.2% | 0.7–2.5% |
| Partei Mensch Umwelt Tierschutz (GUE/NGL) | 0.0% | 0.8% | 0.5–1.3% | 0.5–1.4% | 0.4–1.5% | 0.3–1.8% |
| Volt Europa (Greens/EFA) | 0.0% | 0.6% | 0.4–1.1% | 0.4–1.2% | 0.3–1.3% | 0.2–1.5% |
| Die PARTEI (NI) | 0.0% | 0.4% | 0.3–0.8% | 0.2–0.9% | 0.2–1.1% | 0.1–1.3% |
| Basisdemokratische Partei Deutschland (*) | 0.0% | 0.2% | 0.1–0.5% | 0.1–0.6% | 0.0–0.7% | 0.0–0.8% |
Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.
Seats
Confidence Intervals
| Party | Last Result | Median | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alternative für Deutschland (ESN) | 0 | 23 | 22–26 | 22–26 | 22–27 | 21–28 |
| Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands (EPP) | 0 | 21 | 19–22 | 19–22 | 18–23 | 17–23 |
| Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands (S&D) | 0 | 15 | 13–16 | 13–17 | 12–17 | 12–17 |
| Bündnis 90/Die Grünen (Greens/EFA) | 0 | 10 | 10–11 | 9–12 | 9–12 | 8–13 |
| Die Linke (GUE/NGL) | 0 | 9 | 8–11 | 8–11 | 7–12 | 7–12 |
| Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern (EPP) | 0 | 6 | 4–7 | 4–7 | 4–8 | 4–8 |
| Bündnis Sahra Wagenknecht (NI) | 0 | 4 | 3–5 | 3–5 | 3–5 | 3–6 |
| Freie Demokratische Partei (RE) | 0 | 3 | 3–4 | 3–4 | 2–5 | 2–5 |
| Freie Wähler (RE) | 0 | 1 | 1–2 | 1–2 | 1–2 | 1–2 |
| Partei Mensch Umwelt Tierschutz (GUE/NGL) | 0 | 1 | 0–1 | 0–1 | 0–1 | 0–2 |
| Volt Europa (Greens/EFA) | 0 | 1 | 0–1 | 0–1 | 0–1 | 0–2 |
| Die PARTEI (NI) | 0 | 1 | 0–1 | 0–1 | 0–1 | 0–1 |
| Basisdemokratische Partei Deutschland (*) | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0–1 | 0–1 | 0–1 |
Alternative für Deutschland (ESN)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Alternative für Deutschland (ESN) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 100% | |
| 2 | 0% | 100% | |
| 3 | 0% | 100% | |
| 4 | 0% | 100% | |
| 5 | 0% | 100% | |
| 6 | 0% | 100% | |
| 7 | 0% | 100% | |
| 8 | 0% | 100% | |
| 9 | 0% | 100% | |
| 10 | 0% | 100% | |
| 11 | 0% | 100% | |
| 12 | 0% | 100% | |
| 13 | 0% | 100% | |
| 14 | 0% | 100% | |
| 15 | 0% | 100% | |
| 16 | 0% | 100% | |
| 17 | 0% | 100% | |
| 18 | 0% | 100% | |
| 19 | 0% | 100% | |
| 20 | 0.5% | 100% | |
| 21 | 1.5% | 99.5% | |
| 22 | 22% | 98% | |
| 23 | 30% | 76% | Median |
| 24 | 23% | 46% | |
| 25 | 10% | 23% | |
| 26 | 8% | 13% | |
| 27 | 3% | 5% | |
| 28 | 1.3% | 1.3% | |
| 29 | 0% | 0% |
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands (EPP)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands (EPP) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 100% | |
| 2 | 0% | 100% | |
| 3 | 0% | 100% | |
| 4 | 0% | 100% | |
| 5 | 0% | 100% | |
| 6 | 0% | 100% | |
| 7 | 0% | 100% | |
| 8 | 0% | 100% | |
| 9 | 0% | 100% | |
| 10 | 0% | 100% | |
| 11 | 0% | 100% | |
| 12 | 0% | 100% | |
| 13 | 0% | 100% | |
| 14 | 0% | 100% | |
| 15 | 0% | 100% | |
| 16 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 17 | 2% | 99.9% | |
| 18 | 2% | 98% | |
| 19 | 17% | 95% | |
| 20 | 23% | 78% | |
| 21 | 45% | 56% | Median |
| 22 | 8% | 11% | |
| 23 | 3% | 3% | |
| 24 | 0.2% | 0.3% | |
| 25 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 26 | 0% | 0% |
Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands (S&D)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands (S&D) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 100% | |
| 2 | 0% | 100% | |
| 3 | 0% | 100% | |
| 4 | 0% | 100% | |
| 5 | 0% | 100% | |
| 6 | 0% | 100% | |
| 7 | 0% | 100% | |
| 8 | 0% | 100% | |
| 9 | 0% | 100% | |
| 10 | 0% | 100% | |
| 11 | 0.2% | 100% | |
| 12 | 4% | 99.8% | |
| 13 | 17% | 96% | |
| 14 | 19% | 79% | |
| 15 | 42% | 60% | Median |
| 16 | 8% | 18% | |
| 17 | 10% | 10% | |
| 18 | 0.2% | 0.3% | |
| 19 | 0% | 0% |
Bündnis 90/Die Grünen (Greens/EFA)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Bündnis 90/Die Grünen (Greens/EFA) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 100% | |
| 2 | 0% | 100% | |
| 3 | 0% | 100% | |
| 4 | 0% | 100% | |
| 5 | 0% | 100% | |
| 6 | 0% | 100% | |
| 7 | 0% | 100% | |
| 8 | 0.7% | 100% | |
| 9 | 8% | 99.3% | |
| 10 | 44% | 91% | Median |
| 11 | 42% | 47% | |
| 12 | 4% | 5% | |
| 13 | 1.2% | 1.4% | |
| 14 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 15 | 0% | 0% |
Die Linke (GUE/NGL)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Die Linke (GUE/NGL) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 100% | |
| 2 | 0% | 100% | |
| 3 | 0% | 100% | |
| 4 | 0% | 100% | |
| 5 | 0% | 100% | |
| 6 | 0% | 100% | |
| 7 | 4% | 100% | |
| 8 | 18% | 96% | |
| 9 | 29% | 77% | Median |
| 10 | 32% | 48% | |
| 11 | 12% | 16% | |
| 12 | 4% | 4% | |
| 13 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 14 | 0% | 0% |
Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern (EPP)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern (EPP) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 100% | |
| 2 | 0% | 100% | |
| 3 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 4 | 10% | 99.9% | |
| 5 | 32% | 90% | |
| 6 | 40% | 58% | Median |
| 7 | 14% | 18% | |
| 8 | 4% | 4% | |
| 9 | 0% | 0% |
Bündnis Sahra Wagenknecht (NI)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Bündnis Sahra Wagenknecht (NI) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 100% | |
| 2 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 3 | 24% | 99.9% | |
| 4 | 56% | 76% | Median |
| 5 | 19% | 20% | |
| 6 | 1.1% | 1.1% | |
| 7 | 0% | 0% |
Freie Demokratische Partei (RE)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Freie Demokratische Partei (RE) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 100% | |
| 2 | 3% | 100% | |
| 3 | 51% | 97% | Median |
| 4 | 41% | 45% | |
| 5 | 4% | 4% | |
| 6 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 7 | 0% | 0% |
Freie Wähler (RE)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Freie Wähler (RE) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 57% | 100% | Median |
| 2 | 43% | 43% | |
| 3 | 0.2% | 0.2% | |
| 4 | 0% | 0% |
Partei Mensch Umwelt Tierschutz (GUE/NGL)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Partei Mensch Umwelt Tierschutz (GUE/NGL) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 13% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 85% | 87% | Median |
| 2 | 2% | 2% | |
| 3 | 0% | 0% |
Volt Europa (Greens/EFA)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Volt Europa (Greens/EFA) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 20% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 79% | 80% | Median |
| 2 | 1.3% | 1.3% | |
| 3 | 0% | 0% |
Die PARTEI (NI)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Die PARTEI (NI) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 44% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 55% | 56% | Median |
| 2 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 3 | 0% | 0% |
Basisdemokratische Partei Deutschland (*)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Basisdemokratische Partei Deutschland (*) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 94% | 100% | Last Result, Median |
| 1 | 6% | 6% | |
| 2 | 0% | 0% |
Coalitions
Confidence Intervals
| Coalition | Last Result | Median | Majority? | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alternative für Deutschland (ESN) | 0 | 23 | 0% | 22–26 | 22–26 | 22–27 | 21–28 |
| Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands (S&D) | 0 | 15 | 0% | 13–16 | 13–17 | 12–17 | 12–17 |
| Freie Demokratische Partei (RE) – Freie Wähler (RE) | 0 | 5 | 0% | 4–6 | 4–6 | 4–6 | 3–7 |
| Bündnis Sahra Wagenknecht (NI) – Die PARTEI (NI) | 0 | 5 | 0% | 3–6 | 3–6 | 3–6 | 3–7 |
Alternative für Deutschland (ESN)
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 100% | |
| 2 | 0% | 100% | |
| 3 | 0% | 100% | |
| 4 | 0% | 100% | |
| 5 | 0% | 100% | |
| 6 | 0% | 100% | |
| 7 | 0% | 100% | |
| 8 | 0% | 100% | |
| 9 | 0% | 100% | |
| 10 | 0% | 100% | |
| 11 | 0% | 100% | |
| 12 | 0% | 100% | |
| 13 | 0% | 100% | |
| 14 | 0% | 100% | |
| 15 | 0% | 100% | |
| 16 | 0% | 100% | |
| 17 | 0% | 100% | |
| 18 | 0% | 100% | |
| 19 | 0% | 100% | |
| 20 | 0.5% | 100% | |
| 21 | 1.5% | 99.5% | |
| 22 | 22% | 98% | |
| 23 | 30% | 76% | Median |
| 24 | 23% | 46% | |
| 25 | 10% | 23% | |
| 26 | 8% | 13% | |
| 27 | 3% | 5% | |
| 28 | 1.3% | 1.3% | |
| 29 | 0% | 0% |
Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands (S&D)
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 100% | |
| 2 | 0% | 100% | |
| 3 | 0% | 100% | |
| 4 | 0% | 100% | |
| 5 | 0% | 100% | |
| 6 | 0% | 100% | |
| 7 | 0% | 100% | |
| 8 | 0% | 100% | |
| 9 | 0% | 100% | |
| 10 | 0% | 100% | |
| 11 | 0.2% | 100% | |
| 12 | 4% | 99.8% | |
| 13 | 17% | 96% | |
| 14 | 19% | 79% | |
| 15 | 42% | 60% | Median |
| 16 | 8% | 18% | |
| 17 | 10% | 10% | |
| 18 | 0.2% | 0.3% | |
| 19 | 0% | 0% |
Freie Demokratische Partei (RE) – Freie Wähler (RE)
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 100% | |
| 2 | 0% | 100% | |
| 3 | 2% | 100% | |
| 4 | 34% | 98% | Median |
| 5 | 38% | 64% | |
| 6 | 26% | 26% | |
| 7 | 0.5% | 0.6% | |
| 8 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 9 | 0% | 0% |
Bündnis Sahra Wagenknecht (NI) – Die PARTEI (NI)
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 100% | |
| 2 | 0% | 100% | |
| 3 | 12% | 100% | |
| 4 | 36% | 88% | |
| 5 | 39% | 52% | Median |
| 6 | 12% | 12% | |
| 7 | 0.8% | 0.9% | |
| 8 | 0% | 0% |
Technical Information
Opinion Poll
- Polling firm: Forschungsgruppe Wahlen
- Commissioner(s): ZDF
- Fieldwork period: 21–23 October 2025
Calculations
- Sample size: 1119
- Simulations done: 2,097,152
- Error estimate: 1.84%