Opinion Poll by INSA and YouGov, 20–24 October 2025

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Alternative für Deutschland (ESN) 0.0% 26.0% 24.4–27.6% 24.0–28.1% 23.6–28.5% 22.8–29.3%
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands (EPP) 0.0% 18.9% 17.5–20.4% 17.1–20.9% 16.8–21.2% 16.2–22.0%
Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands (S&D) 0.0% 15.0% 13.8–16.4% 13.4–16.8% 13.1–17.2% 12.5–17.8%
Die Linke (GUE/NGL) 0.0% 11.0% 10.0–12.3% 9.6–12.6% 9.4–12.9% 8.9–13.5%
Bündnis 90/Die Grünen (Greens/EFA) 0.0% 11.0% 10.0–12.3% 9.6–12.6% 9.4–12.9% 8.9–13.5%
Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern (EPP) 0.0% 5.1% 4.3–6.0% 4.1–6.2% 4.0–6.5% 3.6–6.9%
Bündnis Sahra Wagenknecht (NI) 0.0% 4.0% 3.3–4.8% 3.2–5.0% 3.0–5.2% 2.7–5.7%
Freie Demokratische Partei (RE) 0.0% 4.0% 3.3–4.8% 3.2–5.0% 3.0–5.2% 2.7–5.7%
Freie Wähler (RE) 0.0% 1.7% 1.3–2.2% 1.2–2.4% 1.1–2.6% 0.9–2.9%
Partei Mensch Umwelt Tierschutz (GUE/NGL) 0.0% 1.1% 0.8–1.6% 0.7–1.7% 0.6–1.8% 0.5–2.1%
Volt Europa (Greens/EFA) 0.0% 0.7% 0.5–1.2% 0.4–1.3% 0.4–1.4% 0.3–1.7%
Die PARTEI (NI) 0.0% 0.5% 0.3–0.9% 0.3–1.0% 0.2–1.1% 0.2–1.3%
Basisdemokratische Partei Deutschland (*) 0.0% 0.2% 0.1–0.4% 0.1–0.5% 0.0–0.6% 0.0–0.8%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Alternative für Deutschland (ESN) 0 25 23–27 23–27 23–27 22–28
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands (EPP) 0 19 17–19 17–19 16–19 16–20
Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands (S&D) 0 14 13–15 13–15 13–15 13–16
Die Linke (GUE/NGL) 0 11 10–12 10–12 9–12 9–13
Bündnis 90/Die Grünen (Greens/EFA) 0 10 10–11 9–11 9–12 9–13
Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern (EPP) 0 5 5 5–6 4–6 4–6
Bündnis Sahra Wagenknecht (NI) 0 4 3–5 3–5 3–5 3–5
Freie Demokratische Partei (RE) 0 3 3–5 3–5 3–5 3–5
Freie Wähler (RE) 0 1 1–2 1–2 1–2 1–3
Partei Mensch Umwelt Tierschutz (GUE/NGL) 0 1 1–2 1–2 1–2 0–2
Volt Europa (Greens/EFA) 0 1 1 0–1 0–1 0–2
Die PARTEI (NI) 0 1 0–1 0–1 0–1 0–1
Basisdemokratische Partei Deutschland (*) 0 0 0 0 0 0–1

Alternative für Deutschland (ESN)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Alternative für Deutschland (ESN) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 0% 100%  
4 0% 100%  
5 0% 100%  
6 0% 100%  
7 0% 100%  
8 0% 100%  
9 0% 100%  
10 0% 100%  
11 0% 100%  
12 0% 100%  
13 0% 100%  
14 0% 100%  
15 0% 100%  
16 0% 100%  
17 0% 100%  
18 0% 100%  
19 0% 100%  
20 0% 100%  
21 0.1% 100%  
22 2% 99.9%  
23 17% 98%  
24 26% 81%  
25 11% 54% Median
26 12% 44%  
27 31% 32%  
28 0.2% 0.6%  
29 0.3% 0.3%  
30 0% 0%  

Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands (EPP)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands (EPP) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 0% 100%  
4 0% 100%  
5 0% 100%  
6 0% 100%  
7 0% 100%  
8 0% 100%  
9 0% 100%  
10 0% 100%  
11 0% 100%  
12 0% 100%  
13 0% 100%  
14 0% 100%  
15 0.5% 100%  
16 4% 99.5%  
17 22% 95%  
18 5% 73%  
19 66% 68% Median
20 2% 2%  
21 0.2% 0.2%  
22 0% 0%  

Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands (S&D)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands (S&D) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 0% 100%  
4 0% 100%  
5 0% 100%  
6 0% 100%  
7 0% 100%  
8 0% 100%  
9 0% 100%  
10 0% 100%  
11 0% 100%  
12 0.2% 100%  
13 37% 99.7%  
14 46% 63% Median
15 16% 17%  
16 1.2% 1.4%  
17 0.2% 0.2%  
18 0% 0%  

Die Linke (GUE/NGL)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Die Linke (GUE/NGL) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 0% 100%  
4 0% 100%  
5 0% 100%  
6 0% 100%  
7 0% 100%  
8 0.2% 100%  
9 3% 99.8%  
10 35% 97%  
11 37% 62% Median
12 23% 25%  
13 2% 2%  
14 0% 0%  

Bündnis 90/Die Grünen (Greens/EFA)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Bündnis 90/Die Grünen (Greens/EFA) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 0% 100%  
4 0% 100%  
5 0% 100%  
6 0% 100%  
7 0% 100%  
8 0.4% 100%  
9 6% 99.6%  
10 52% 94% Median
11 39% 42%  
12 2% 3%  
13 0.8% 0.8%  
14 0% 0%  

Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern (EPP)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern (EPP) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 0.2% 100%  
4 5% 99.8%  
5 89% 95% Median
6 6% 6%  
7 0.3% 0.3%  
8 0% 0%  

Bündnis Sahra Wagenknecht (NI)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Bündnis Sahra Wagenknecht (NI) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0.1% 100%  
3 48% 99.9%  
4 16% 52% Median
5 36% 36%  
6 0.2% 0.2%  
7 0% 0%  

Freie Demokratische Partei (RE)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Freie Demokratische Partei (RE) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0.1% 100%  
3 57% 99.9% Median
4 33% 43%  
5 10% 10%  
6 0.1% 0.1%  
7 0% 0%  

Freie Wähler (RE)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Freie Wähler (RE) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 53% 100% Median
2 46% 47%  
3 0.8% 0.8%  
4 0% 0%  

Partei Mensch Umwelt Tierschutz (GUE/NGL)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Partei Mensch Umwelt Tierschutz (GUE/NGL) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0.7% 100% Last Result
1 88% 99.3% Median
2 12% 12%  
3 0% 0%  

Volt Europa (Greens/EFA)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Volt Europa (Greens/EFA) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 8% 100% Last Result
1 91% 92% Median
2 0.7% 0.7%  
3 0% 0%  

Die PARTEI (NI)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Die PARTEI (NI) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 45% 100% Last Result
1 55% 55% Median
2 0% 0%  

Basisdemokratische Partei Deutschland (*)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Basisdemokratische Partei Deutschland (*) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 98% 100% Last Result, Median
1 2% 2%  
2 0% 0%  

Coalitions

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Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median Majority? 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Alternative für Deutschland (ESN) 0 25 0% 23–27 23–27 23–27 22–28
Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands (S&D) 0 14 0% 13–15 13–15 13–15 13–16
Freie Demokratische Partei (RE) – Freie Wähler (RE) 0 5 0% 4–6 4–7 4–7 4–7
Bündnis Sahra Wagenknecht (NI) – Die PARTEI (NI) 0 4 0% 3–6 3–6 3–6 3–6

Alternative für Deutschland (ESN)

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 0% 100%  
4 0% 100%  
5 0% 100%  
6 0% 100%  
7 0% 100%  
8 0% 100%  
9 0% 100%  
10 0% 100%  
11 0% 100%  
12 0% 100%  
13 0% 100%  
14 0% 100%  
15 0% 100%  
16 0% 100%  
17 0% 100%  
18 0% 100%  
19 0% 100%  
20 0% 100%  
21 0.1% 100%  
22 2% 99.9%  
23 17% 98%  
24 26% 81%  
25 11% 54% Median
26 12% 44%  
27 31% 32%  
28 0.2% 0.6%  
29 0.3% 0.3%  
30 0% 0%  

Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands (S&D)

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 0% 100%  
4 0% 100%  
5 0% 100%  
6 0% 100%  
7 0% 100%  
8 0% 100%  
9 0% 100%  
10 0% 100%  
11 0% 100%  
12 0.2% 100%  
13 37% 99.7%  
14 46% 63% Median
15 16% 17%  
16 1.2% 1.4%  
17 0.2% 0.2%  
18 0% 0%  

Freie Demokratische Partei (RE) – Freie Wähler (RE)

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 0% 100%  
4 29% 100% Median
5 51% 71%  
6 11% 20%  
7 9% 10%  
8 0.2% 0.3%  
9 0% 0%  

Bündnis Sahra Wagenknecht (NI) – Die PARTEI (NI)

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0.1% 100%  
3 36% 99.9%  
4 20% 64%  
5 9% 44% Median
6 35% 35%  
7 0.1% 0.1%  
8 0% 0%  

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

Calculations