Opinion Poll by Forsa for RTL n-tv, 21–27 October 2025

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Alternative für Deutschland (ESN) 0.0% 26.0% 24.7–27.3% 24.4–27.7% 24.1–28.0% 23.5–28.7%
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands (EPP) 0.0% 19.7% 18.6–20.9% 18.3–21.3% 18.0–21.6% 17.5–22.1%
Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands (S&D) 0.0% 13.0% 12.1–14.1% 11.8–14.4% 11.6–14.6% 11.2–15.1%
Die Linke (GUE/NGL) 0.0% 12.0% 11.1–13.0% 10.8–13.3% 10.6–13.5% 10.2–14.0%
Bündnis 90/Die Grünen (Greens/EFA) 0.0% 12.0% 11.1–13.0% 10.8–13.3% 10.6–13.5% 10.2–14.0%
Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern (EPP) 0.0% 5.2% 4.6–6.0% 4.5–6.2% 4.3–6.3% 4.1–6.7%
Bündnis Sahra Wagenknecht (NI) 0.0% 3.0% 2.6–3.6% 2.4–3.7% 2.3–3.9% 2.1–4.2%
Freie Demokratische Partei (RE) 0.0% 3.0% 2.6–3.6% 2.4–3.7% 2.3–3.9% 2.1–4.2%
Freie Wähler (RE) 0.0% 2.0% 1.7–2.5% 1.6–2.6% 1.5–2.8% 1.3–3.0%
Partei Mensch Umwelt Tierschutz (GUE/NGL) 0.0% 1.3% 1.0–1.7% 0.9–1.8% 0.9–1.9% 0.8–2.1%
Volt Europa (Greens/EFA) 0.0% 0.9% 0.7–1.3% 0.6–1.4% 0.6–1.5% 0.5–1.7%
Die PARTEI (NI) 0.0% 0.6% 0.4–0.9% 0.4–1.0% 0.4–1.1% 0.3–1.2%
Basisdemokratische Partei Deutschland (*) 0.0% 0.2% 0.1–0.4% 0.1–0.5% 0.1–0.5% 0.0–0.7%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Alternative für Deutschland (ESN) 0 26 23–27 23–27 23–27 22–27
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands (EPP) 0 18 17–20 17–20 17–20 17–21
Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands (S&D) 0 12 11–14 11–14 11–14 10–14
Die Linke (GUE/NGL) 0 11 10–12 10–13 10–13 9–14
Bündnis 90/Die Grünen (Greens/EFA) 0 12 10–13 10–13 10–13 10–13
Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern (EPP) 0 5 4–6 4–6 4–6 4–7
Bündnis Sahra Wagenknecht (NI) 0 3 2–3 2–3 2–4 2–4
Freie Demokratische Partei (RE) 0 3 2–3 2–3 2–4 2–4
Freie Wähler (RE) 0 2 1–3 1–3 1–3 1–3
Partei Mensch Umwelt Tierschutz (GUE/NGL) 0 1 1–2 1–2 1–2 1–2
Volt Europa (Greens/EFA) 0 1 1 1 0–2 0–2
Die PARTEI (NI) 0 1 0–1 0–1 0–1 0–1
Basisdemokratische Partei Deutschland (*) 0 0 0 0 0–1 0–1

Alternative für Deutschland (ESN)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Alternative für Deutschland (ESN) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 0% 100%  
4 0% 100%  
5 0% 100%  
6 0% 100%  
7 0% 100%  
8 0% 100%  
9 0% 100%  
10 0% 100%  
11 0% 100%  
12 0% 100%  
13 0% 100%  
14 0% 100%  
15 0% 100%  
16 0% 100%  
17 0% 100%  
18 0% 100%  
19 0% 100%  
20 0% 100%  
21 0.1% 100%  
22 2% 99.9%  
23 12% 98%  
24 10% 86%  
25 15% 76%  
26 31% 61% Median
27 29% 30%  
28 0.3% 0.3%  
29 0% 0%  

Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands (EPP)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands (EPP) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 0% 100%  
4 0% 100%  
5 0% 100%  
6 0% 100%  
7 0% 100%  
8 0% 100%  
9 0% 100%  
10 0% 100%  
11 0% 100%  
12 0% 100%  
13 0% 100%  
14 0% 100%  
15 0% 100%  
16 0.4% 100%  
17 10% 99.6%  
18 51% 90% Median
19 28% 39%  
20 9% 11%  
21 2% 2%  
22 0.4% 0.4%  
23 0% 0%  

Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands (S&D)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands (S&D) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 0% 100%  
4 0% 100%  
5 0% 100%  
6 0% 100%  
7 0% 100%  
8 0% 100%  
9 0% 100%  
10 0.8% 100%  
11 15% 99.2%  
12 50% 84% Median
13 17% 34%  
14 16% 17%  
15 0.4% 0.4%  
16 0% 0%  

Die Linke (GUE/NGL)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Die Linke (GUE/NGL) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 0% 100%  
4 0% 100%  
5 0% 100%  
6 0% 100%  
7 0% 100%  
8 0% 100%  
9 1.3% 100%  
10 21% 98.7%  
11 41% 78% Median
12 29% 37%  
13 7% 8%  
14 0.9% 0.9%  
15 0% 0%  

Bündnis 90/Die Grünen (Greens/EFA)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Bündnis 90/Die Grünen (Greens/EFA) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 0% 100%  
4 0% 100%  
5 0% 100%  
6 0% 100%  
7 0% 100%  
8 0% 100%  
9 0.2% 100%  
10 12% 99.8%  
11 21% 88%  
12 42% 66% Median
13 24% 24%  
14 0.3% 0.3%  
15 0% 0%  

Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern (EPP)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern (EPP) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 0.1% 100%  
4 22% 99.9%  
5 46% 78% Median
6 31% 32%  
7 1.1% 1.1%  
8 0% 0%  

Bündnis Sahra Wagenknecht (NI)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Bündnis Sahra Wagenknecht (NI) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 36% 100%  
3 60% 64% Median
4 4% 4%  
5 0% 0%  

Freie Demokratische Partei (RE)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Freie Demokratische Partei (RE) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 13% 100%  
3 82% 87% Median
4 5% 5%  
5 0% 0%  

Freie Wähler (RE)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Freie Wähler (RE) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 20% 100%  
2 67% 80% Median
3 14% 14%  
4 0% 0%  

Partei Mensch Umwelt Tierschutz (GUE/NGL)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Partei Mensch Umwelt Tierschutz (GUE/NGL) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 78% 100% Median
2 22% 22%  
3 0% 0%  

Volt Europa (Greens/EFA)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Volt Europa (Greens/EFA) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 4% 100% Last Result
1 93% 96% Median
2 4% 4%  
3 0% 0%  

Die PARTEI (NI)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Die PARTEI (NI) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 21% 100% Last Result
1 79% 79% Median
2 0% 0%  

Basisdemokratische Partei Deutschland (*)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Basisdemokratische Partei Deutschland (*) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 96% 100% Last Result, Median
1 4% 4%  
2 0% 0%  

Coalitions

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Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median Majority? 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Alternative für Deutschland (ESN) 0 26 0% 23–27 23–27 23–27 22–27
Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands (S&D) 0 12 0% 11–14 11–14 11–14 10–14
Freie Demokratische Partei (RE) – Freie Wähler (RE) 0 5 0% 4–6 4–6 4–6 4–7
Bündnis Sahra Wagenknecht (NI) – Die PARTEI (NI) 0 4 0% 2–4 2–4 2–5 2–5

Alternative für Deutschland (ESN)

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 0% 100%  
4 0% 100%  
5 0% 100%  
6 0% 100%  
7 0% 100%  
8 0% 100%  
9 0% 100%  
10 0% 100%  
11 0% 100%  
12 0% 100%  
13 0% 100%  
14 0% 100%  
15 0% 100%  
16 0% 100%  
17 0% 100%  
18 0% 100%  
19 0% 100%  
20 0% 100%  
21 0.1% 100%  
22 2% 99.9%  
23 12% 98%  
24 10% 86%  
25 15% 76%  
26 31% 61% Median
27 29% 30%  
28 0.3% 0.3%  
29 0% 0%  

Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands (S&D)

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 0% 100%  
4 0% 100%  
5 0% 100%  
6 0% 100%  
7 0% 100%  
8 0% 100%  
9 0% 100%  
10 0.8% 100%  
11 15% 99.2%  
12 50% 84% Median
13 17% 34%  
14 16% 17%  
15 0.4% 0.4%  
16 0% 0%  

Freie Demokratische Partei (RE) – Freie Wähler (RE)

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 0.4% 100%  
4 30% 99.6%  
5 55% 70% Median
6 13% 14%  
7 1.5% 1.5%  
8 0% 0%  

Bündnis Sahra Wagenknecht (NI) – Die PARTEI (NI)

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 16% 100%  
3 24% 84%  
4 57% 60% Median
5 3% 3%  
6 0% 0%  

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

Calculations