Opinion Poll by INSA and YouGov for BILD, 27–30 October 2025

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Alternative für Deutschland (ESN) 0.0% 26.0% 24.5–27.7% 24.0–28.2% 23.6–28.6% 22.9–29.4%
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands (EPP) 0.0% 19.7% 18.3–21.3% 17.9–21.7% 17.6–22.1% 16.9–22.8%
Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands (S&D) 0.0% 15.0% 13.7–16.4% 13.4–16.8% 13.1–17.1% 12.5–17.8%
Die Linke (GUE/NGL) 0.0% 11.0% 9.9–12.2% 9.6–12.6% 9.3–12.9% 8.8–13.5%
Bündnis 90/Die Grünen (Greens/EFA) 0.0% 11.0% 9.9–12.2% 9.6–12.6% 9.3–12.9% 8.8–13.5%
Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern (EPP) 0.0% 5.2% 4.5–6.2% 4.3–6.4% 4.1–6.7% 3.8–7.1%
Bündnis Sahra Wagenknecht (NI) 0.0% 4.0% 3.4–4.8% 3.2–5.1% 3.0–5.3% 2.7–5.7%
Freie Demokratische Partei (RE) 0.0% 3.0% 2.5–3.7% 2.3–3.9% 2.2–4.1% 1.9–4.5%
Freie Wähler (RE) 0.0% 1.7% 1.3–2.3% 1.2–2.5% 1.1–2.7% 1.0–3.0%
Partei Mensch Umwelt Tierschutz (GUE/NGL) 0.0% 1.1% 0.8–1.6% 0.7–1.7% 0.6–1.8% 0.5–2.1%
Volt Europa (Greens/EFA) 0.0% 0.8% 0.6–1.3% 0.5–1.4% 0.5–1.5% 0.4–1.8%
Die PARTEI (NI) 0.0% 0.6% 0.4–1.0% 0.3–1.1% 0.3–1.2% 0.2–1.4%
Basisdemokratische Partei Deutschland (*) 0.0% 0.2% 0.1–0.4% 0.1–0.5% 0.0–0.6% 0.0–0.8%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Alternative für Deutschland (ESN) 0 25 24–27 23–27 23–27 22–27
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands (EPP) 0 18 17–20 17–20 17–21 16–22
Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands (S&D) 0 15 13–15 13–16 13–16 12–17
Die Linke (GUE/NGL) 0 10 10–11 10–12 9–12 8–13
Bündnis 90/Die Grünen (Greens/EFA) 0 10 10–11 10–11 9–12 9–13
Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern (EPP) 0 6 4–6 4–6 4–6 4–6
Bündnis Sahra Wagenknecht (NI) 0 4 3–5 3–5 3–5 3–5
Freie Demokratische Partei (RE) 0 3 2–3 2–4 2–4 2–4
Freie Wähler (RE) 0 2 1–2 1–2 1–2 1–3
Partei Mensch Umwelt Tierschutz (GUE/NGL) 0 1 1 1 1–2 1–2
Volt Europa (Greens/EFA) 0 1 1 1 0–1 0–2
Die PARTEI (NI) 0 1 0–1 0–1 0–1 0–1
Basisdemokratische Partei Deutschland (*) 0 0 0 0 0–1 0–1

Alternative für Deutschland (ESN)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Alternative für Deutschland (ESN) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 0% 100%  
4 0% 100%  
5 0% 100%  
6 0% 100%  
7 0% 100%  
8 0% 100%  
9 0% 100%  
10 0% 100%  
11 0% 100%  
12 0% 100%  
13 0% 100%  
14 0% 100%  
15 0% 100%  
16 0% 100%  
17 0% 100%  
18 0% 100%  
19 0% 100%  
20 0% 100%  
21 0.1% 100%  
22 2% 99.9%  
23 5% 98%  
24 21% 92%  
25 49% 72% Median
26 3% 22%  
27 19% 19%  
28 0.2% 0.3%  
29 0.1% 0.1%  
30 0% 0%  

Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands (EPP)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands (EPP) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 0% 100%  
4 0% 100%  
5 0% 100%  
6 0% 100%  
7 0% 100%  
8 0% 100%  
9 0% 100%  
10 0% 100%  
11 0% 100%  
12 0% 100%  
13 0% 100%  
14 0% 100%  
15 0% 100%  
16 0.6% 100%  
17 49% 99.4%  
18 25% 50% Median
19 14% 25%  
20 8% 11%  
21 3% 4%  
22 0.9% 0.9%  
23 0% 0%  

Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands (S&D)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands (S&D) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 0% 100%  
4 0% 100%  
5 0% 100%  
6 0% 100%  
7 0% 100%  
8 0% 100%  
9 0% 100%  
10 0% 100%  
11 0.1% 100%  
12 1.3% 99.9%  
13 11% 98.6%  
14 9% 87%  
15 72% 78% Median
16 4% 6%  
17 2% 2%  
18 0.1% 0.1%  
19 0% 0%  

Die Linke (GUE/NGL)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Die Linke (GUE/NGL) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 0% 100%  
4 0% 100%  
5 0% 100%  
6 0% 100%  
7 0% 100%  
8 1.1% 100%  
9 2% 98.9%  
10 59% 97% Median
11 32% 37%  
12 4% 6%  
13 1.2% 1.2%  
14 0.1% 0.1%  
15 0% 0%  

Bündnis 90/Die Grünen (Greens/EFA)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Bündnis 90/Die Grünen (Greens/EFA) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 0% 100%  
4 0% 100%  
5 0% 100%  
6 0% 100%  
7 0% 100%  
8 0.4% 100%  
9 4% 99.6%  
10 73% 96% Median
11 18% 22%  
12 4% 4%  
13 0.6% 0.7%  
14 0.1% 0.1%  
15 0% 0%  

Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern (EPP)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern (EPP) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 0.2% 100%  
4 11% 99.8%  
5 30% 89%  
6 59% 59% Median
7 0.3% 0.3%  
8 0% 0%  

Bündnis Sahra Wagenknecht (NI)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Bündnis Sahra Wagenknecht (NI) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 26% 100%  
4 62% 74% Median
5 11% 12%  
6 0.2% 0.2%  
7 0% 0%  

Freie Demokratische Partei (RE)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Freie Demokratische Partei (RE) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 22% 100%  
3 71% 78% Median
4 7% 7%  
5 0.1% 0.1%  
6 0% 0%  

Freie Wähler (RE)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Freie Wähler (RE) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 31% 100%  
2 66% 69% Median
3 2% 2%  
4 0% 0%  

Partei Mensch Umwelt Tierschutz (GUE/NGL)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Partei Mensch Umwelt Tierschutz (GUE/NGL) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0.1% 100% Last Result
1 96% 99.9% Median
2 4% 4%  
3 0% 0%  

Volt Europa (Greens/EFA)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Volt Europa (Greens/EFA) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 5% 100% Last Result
1 94% 95% Median
2 0.8% 0.8%  
3 0% 0%  

Die PARTEI (NI)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Die PARTEI (NI) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 16% 100% Last Result
1 84% 84% Median
2 0.2% 0.2%  
3 0% 0%  

Basisdemokratische Partei Deutschland (*)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Basisdemokratische Partei Deutschland (*) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 97% 100% Last Result, Median
1 3% 3%  
2 0% 0%  

Coalitions

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Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median Majority? 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Alternative für Deutschland (ESN) 0 25 0% 24–27 23–27 23–27 22–27
Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands (S&D) 0 15 0% 13–15 13–16 13–16 12–17
Bündnis Sahra Wagenknecht (NI) – Die PARTEI (NI) 0 5 0% 4–5 4–5 4–6 3–6
Freie Demokratische Partei (RE) – Freie Wähler (RE) 0 5 0% 3–5 3–6 3–6 3–6

Alternative für Deutschland (ESN)

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 0% 100%  
4 0% 100%  
5 0% 100%  
6 0% 100%  
7 0% 100%  
8 0% 100%  
9 0% 100%  
10 0% 100%  
11 0% 100%  
12 0% 100%  
13 0% 100%  
14 0% 100%  
15 0% 100%  
16 0% 100%  
17 0% 100%  
18 0% 100%  
19 0% 100%  
20 0% 100%  
21 0.1% 100%  
22 2% 99.9%  
23 5% 98%  
24 21% 92%  
25 49% 72% Median
26 3% 22%  
27 19% 19%  
28 0.2% 0.3%  
29 0.1% 0.1%  
30 0% 0%  

Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands (S&D)

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 0% 100%  
4 0% 100%  
5 0% 100%  
6 0% 100%  
7 0% 100%  
8 0% 100%  
9 0% 100%  
10 0% 100%  
11 0.1% 100%  
12 1.3% 99.9%  
13 11% 98.6%  
14 9% 87%  
15 72% 78% Median
16 4% 6%  
17 2% 2%  
18 0.1% 0.1%  
19 0% 0%  

Bündnis Sahra Wagenknecht (NI) – Die PARTEI (NI)

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 1.1% 100%  
4 32% 98.9%  
5 63% 67% Median
6 4% 4%  
7 0.2% 0.2%  
8 0% 0%  

Freie Demokratische Partei (RE) – Freie Wähler (RE)

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 19% 100%  
4 15% 81%  
5 58% 66% Median
6 8% 8%  
7 0.4% 0.4%  
8 0% 0%  

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

Calculations