Opinion Poll by Allensbach for Frankfurter Allgemeine Zeitung, 23 October–6 November 2025

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Alternative für Deutschland (ESN) 0.0% 24.0% 22.4–25.8% 21.9–26.3% 21.5–26.8% 20.7–27.6%
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands (EPP) 0.0% 21.4% 19.8–23.1% 19.3–23.6% 18.9–24.0% 18.2–24.8%
Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands (S&D) 0.0% 15.5% 14.1–17.1% 13.7–17.5% 13.4–17.9% 12.8–18.7%
Bündnis 90/Die Grünen (Greens/EFA) 0.0% 11.0% 9.8–12.3% 9.5–12.7% 9.2–13.1% 8.7–13.7%
Die Linke (GUE/NGL) 0.0% 10.0% 8.9–11.3% 8.6–11.7% 8.3–12.0% 7.8–12.7%
Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern (EPP) 0.0% 5.6% 4.8–6.7% 4.6–7.0% 4.4–7.2% 4.0–7.8%
Bündnis Sahra Wagenknecht (NI) 0.0% 4.0% 3.3–4.9% 3.1–5.1% 2.9–5.3% 2.6–5.8%
Freie Demokratische Partei (RE) 0.0% 3.5% 2.8–4.3% 2.7–4.6% 2.5–4.8% 2.2–5.2%
Freie Wähler (RE) 0.0% 1.7% 1.3–2.3% 1.1–2.5% 1.1–2.7% 0.9–3.0%
Partei Mensch Umwelt Tierschutz (GUE/NGL) 0.0% 1.1% 0.8–1.6% 0.7–1.8% 0.6–2.0% 0.5–2.2%
Volt Europa (Greens/EFA) 0.0% 0.8% 0.5–1.3% 0.5–1.4% 0.4–1.6% 0.3–1.8%
Die PARTEI (NI) 0.0% 0.5% 0.3–0.9% 0.2–1.0% 0.2–1.2% 0.1–1.4%
Basisdemokratische Partei Deutschland (*) 0.0% 0.2% 0.1–0.5% 0.1–0.6% 0.1–0.7% 0.0–0.9%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Alternative für Deutschland (ESN) 0 22 21–25 21–25 20–26 19–27
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands (EPP) 0 21 18–21 18–22 18–22 17–23
Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands (S&D) 0 15 13–17 12–17 12–18 12–18
Bündnis 90/Die Grünen (Greens/EFA) 0 10 9–12 9–12 9–12 8–13
Die Linke (GUE/NGL) 0 9 8–11 8–11 8–11 7–13
Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern (EPP) 0 5 5–7 4–7 4–7 4–7
Bündnis Sahra Wagenknecht (NI) 0 4 3–5 3–5 2–5 2–5
Freie Demokratische Partei (RE) 0 4 3–4 3–5 2–5 2–5
Freie Wähler (RE) 0 2 1–2 1–3 1–3 1–3
Partei Mensch Umwelt Tierschutz (GUE/NGL) 0 1 1–2 1–2 0–2 0–2
Volt Europa (Greens/EFA) 0 1 1 1 0–1 0–2
Die PARTEI (NI) 0 0 0–1 0–1 0–1 0–1
Basisdemokratische Partei Deutschland (*) 0 0 0–1 0–1 0–1 0–1

Alternative für Deutschland (ESN)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Alternative für Deutschland (ESN) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 0% 100%  
4 0% 100%  
5 0% 100%  
6 0% 100%  
7 0% 100%  
8 0% 100%  
9 0% 100%  
10 0% 100%  
11 0% 100%  
12 0% 100%  
13 0% 100%  
14 0% 100%  
15 0% 100%  
16 0% 100%  
17 0% 100%  
18 0.1% 100%  
19 1.2% 99.9%  
20 3% 98.7%  
21 16% 95%  
22 42% 80% Median
23 10% 37%  
24 13% 27%  
25 12% 14%  
26 0.9% 3%  
27 2% 2%  
28 0.1% 0.1%  
29 0% 0%  

Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands (EPP)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands (EPP) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 0% 100%  
4 0% 100%  
5 0% 100%  
6 0% 100%  
7 0% 100%  
8 0% 100%  
9 0% 100%  
10 0% 100%  
11 0% 100%  
12 0% 100%  
13 0% 100%  
14 0% 100%  
15 0% 100%  
16 0.1% 100%  
17 1.0% 99.9%  
18 10% 98.9%  
19 12% 89%  
20 25% 77%  
21 43% 53% Median
22 8% 10%  
23 0.9% 1.3%  
24 0.3% 0.3%  
25 0% 0%  

Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands (S&D)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands (S&D) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 0% 100%  
4 0% 100%  
5 0% 100%  
6 0% 100%  
7 0% 100%  
8 0% 100%  
9 0% 100%  
10 0% 100%  
11 0.1% 100%  
12 7% 99.9%  
13 15% 92%  
14 10% 78%  
15 38% 68% Median
16 20% 30%  
17 7% 10%  
18 3% 4%  
19 0% 0.1%  
20 0% 0%  

Bündnis 90/Die Grünen (Greens/EFA)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Bündnis 90/Die Grünen (Greens/EFA) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 0% 100%  
4 0% 100%  
5 0% 100%  
6 0% 100%  
7 0% 100%  
8 2% 100%  
9 8% 98%  
10 48% 90% Median
11 24% 41%  
12 17% 17%  
13 0.7% 0.8%  
14 0.1% 0.1%  
15 0% 0%  

Die Linke (GUE/NGL)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Die Linke (GUE/NGL) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 0% 100%  
4 0% 100%  
5 0% 100%  
6 0% 100%  
7 1.2% 100%  
8 29% 98.8%  
9 29% 69% Median
10 25% 41%  
11 14% 16%  
12 2% 2%  
13 0.6% 0.6%  
14 0% 0%  

Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern (EPP)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern (EPP) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 0.1% 100%  
4 10% 99.9%  
5 41% 90% Median
6 20% 49%  
7 29% 29%  
8 0.5% 0.5%  
9 0% 0%  

Bündnis Sahra Wagenknecht (NI)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Bündnis Sahra Wagenknecht (NI) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 3% 100%  
3 20% 97%  
4 66% 77% Median
5 11% 12%  
6 0.5% 0.5%  
7 0% 0%  

Freie Demokratische Partei (RE)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Freie Demokratische Partei (RE) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 4% 100%  
3 46% 96%  
4 45% 50% Median
5 5% 5%  
6 0% 0%  

Freie Wähler (RE)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Freie Wähler (RE) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 27% 100%  
2 66% 73% Median
3 7% 7%  
4 0% 0%  

Partei Mensch Umwelt Tierschutz (GUE/NGL)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Partei Mensch Umwelt Tierschutz (GUE/NGL) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 4% 100% Last Result
1 73% 96% Median
2 23% 23%  
3 0.1% 0.1%  
4 0% 0%  

Volt Europa (Greens/EFA)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Volt Europa (Greens/EFA) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 3% 100% Last Result
1 95% 97% Median
2 1.2% 1.2%  
3 0% 0%  

Die PARTEI (NI)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Die PARTEI (NI) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 57% 100% Last Result, Median
1 43% 43%  
2 0.2% 0.2%  
3 0% 0%  

Basisdemokratische Partei Deutschland (*)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Basisdemokratische Partei Deutschland (*) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 87% 100% Last Result, Median
1 13% 13%  
2 0% 0%  

Coalitions

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Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median Majority? 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Alternative für Deutschland (ESN) 0 22 0% 21–25 21–25 20–26 19–27
Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands (S&D) 0 15 0% 13–17 12–17 12–18 12–18
Freie Demokratische Partei (RE) – Freie Wähler (RE) 0 5 0% 4–6 4–7 4–7 3–7
Bündnis Sahra Wagenknecht (NI) – Die PARTEI (NI) 0 4 0% 4–6 3–6 3–6 2–6

Alternative für Deutschland (ESN)

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 0% 100%  
4 0% 100%  
5 0% 100%  
6 0% 100%  
7 0% 100%  
8 0% 100%  
9 0% 100%  
10 0% 100%  
11 0% 100%  
12 0% 100%  
13 0% 100%  
14 0% 100%  
15 0% 100%  
16 0% 100%  
17 0% 100%  
18 0.1% 100%  
19 1.2% 99.9%  
20 3% 98.7%  
21 16% 95%  
22 42% 80% Median
23 10% 37%  
24 13% 27%  
25 12% 14%  
26 0.9% 3%  
27 2% 2%  
28 0.1% 0.1%  
29 0% 0%  

Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands (S&D)

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 0% 100%  
4 0% 100%  
5 0% 100%  
6 0% 100%  
7 0% 100%  
8 0% 100%  
9 0% 100%  
10 0% 100%  
11 0.1% 100%  
12 7% 99.9%  
13 15% 92%  
14 10% 78%  
15 38% 68% Median
16 20% 30%  
17 7% 10%  
18 3% 4%  
19 0% 0.1%  
20 0% 0%  

Freie Demokratische Partei (RE) – Freie Wähler (RE)

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 2% 100%  
4 19% 98%  
5 31% 79%  
6 42% 48% Median
7 6% 6%  
8 0.1% 0.1%  
9 0% 0%  

Bündnis Sahra Wagenknecht (NI) – Die PARTEI (NI)

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 1.5% 100%  
3 4% 98.5%  
4 68% 94% Median
5 16% 26%  
6 10% 10%  
7 0.3% 0.3%  
8 0% 0%  

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

Calculations