Opinion Poll by Forschungsgruppe Wahlen for ZDF, 4–6 November 2025
Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information
Voting Intentions
Confidence Intervals
| Party | Last Result | Poll Result | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alternative für Deutschland (ESN) | 0.0% | 26.0% | 24.5–27.6% | 24.1–28.1% | 23.7–28.5% | 23.0–29.2% |
| Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands (EPP) | 0.0% | 20.5% | 19.1–22.0% | 18.7–22.4% | 18.4–22.8% | 17.8–23.5% |
| Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands (S&D) | 0.0% | 14.0% | 12.8–15.3% | 12.5–15.7% | 12.2–16.0% | 11.7–16.6% |
| Bündnis 90/Die Grünen (Greens/EFA) | 0.0% | 12.0% | 10.9–13.2% | 10.6–13.6% | 10.4–13.9% | 9.9–14.5% |
| Die Linke (GUE/NGL) | 0.0% | 10.0% | 9.0–11.1% | 8.7–11.4% | 8.5–11.7% | 8.0–12.3% |
| Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern (EPP) | 0.0% | 5.4% | 4.7–6.3% | 4.5–6.6% | 4.3–6.8% | 4.0–7.3% |
| Bündnis Sahra Wagenknecht (NI) | 0.0% | 4.3% | 3.7–5.1% | 3.5–5.3% | 3.3–5.5% | 3.0–6.0% |
| Freie Demokratische Partei (RE) | 0.0% | 3.8% | 3.2–4.6% | 3.0–4.8% | 2.9–5.0% | 2.6–5.3% |
| Freie Wähler (RE) | 0.0% | 1.4% | 1.0–1.9% | 0.9–2.0% | 0.9–2.1% | 0.7–2.4% |
| Partei Mensch Umwelt Tierschutz (GUE/NGL) | 0.0% | 0.8% | 0.6–1.3% | 0.5–1.4% | 0.5–1.5% | 0.4–1.7% |
| Volt Europa (Greens/EFA) | 0.0% | 0.6% | 0.4–1.0% | 0.4–1.1% | 0.3–1.2% | 0.2–1.4% |
| Die PARTEI (NI) | 0.0% | 0.5% | 0.3–0.8% | 0.2–0.9% | 0.2–1.0% | 0.2–1.2% |
| Basisdemokratische Partei Deutschland (*) | 0.0% | 0.2% | 0.1–0.4% | 0.1–0.5% | 0.0–0.5% | 0.0–0.7% |
Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.
Seats
Confidence Intervals
| Party | Last Result | Median | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alternative für Deutschland (ESN) | 0 | 25 | 23–26 | 23–26 | 23–27 | 22–27 |
| Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands (EPP) | 0 | 20 | 18–22 | 18–22 | 18–22 | 17–23 |
| Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands (S&D) | 0 | 13 | 12–14 | 12–15 | 12–15 | 12–16 |
| Bündnis 90/Die Grünen (Greens/EFA) | 0 | 12 | 11–13 | 10–13 | 10–13 | 9–14 |
| Die Linke (GUE/NGL) | 0 | 9 | 9–10 | 9–10 | 8–11 | 8–11 |
| Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern (EPP) | 0 | 5 | 5–6 | 5–6 | 5–6 | 4–7 |
| Bündnis Sahra Wagenknecht (NI) | 0 | 4 | 3–5 | 3–5 | 3–5 | 3–5 |
| Freie Demokratische Partei (RE) | 0 | 4 | 3–4 | 3–5 | 3–5 | 2–5 |
| Freie Wähler (RE) | 0 | 1 | 1–2 | 1–2 | 1–2 | 1–2 |
| Partei Mensch Umwelt Tierschutz (GUE/NGL) | 0 | 1 | 0–1 | 0–1 | 0–1 | 0–2 |
| Volt Europa (Greens/EFA) | 0 | 1 | 0–1 | 0–1 | 0–1 | 0–1 |
| Die PARTEI (NI) | 0 | 1 | 0–1 | 0–1 | 0–1 | 0–1 |
| Basisdemokratische Partei Deutschland (*) | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0–1 |
Alternative für Deutschland (ESN)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Alternative für Deutschland (ESN) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 100% | |
| 2 | 0% | 100% | |
| 3 | 0% | 100% | |
| 4 | 0% | 100% | |
| 5 | 0% | 100% | |
| 6 | 0% | 100% | |
| 7 | 0% | 100% | |
| 8 | 0% | 100% | |
| 9 | 0% | 100% | |
| 10 | 0% | 100% | |
| 11 | 0% | 100% | |
| 12 | 0% | 100% | |
| 13 | 0% | 100% | |
| 14 | 0% | 100% | |
| 15 | 0% | 100% | |
| 16 | 0% | 100% | |
| 17 | 0% | 100% | |
| 18 | 0% | 100% | |
| 19 | 0% | 100% | |
| 20 | 0% | 100% | |
| 21 | 0.4% | 100% | |
| 22 | 0.7% | 99.6% | |
| 23 | 16% | 98.9% | |
| 24 | 15% | 83% | |
| 25 | 41% | 69% | Median |
| 26 | 25% | 28% | |
| 27 | 3% | 3% | |
| 28 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 29 | 0% | 0% |
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands (EPP)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands (EPP) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 100% | |
| 2 | 0% | 100% | |
| 3 | 0% | 100% | |
| 4 | 0% | 100% | |
| 5 | 0% | 100% | |
| 6 | 0% | 100% | |
| 7 | 0% | 100% | |
| 8 | 0% | 100% | |
| 9 | 0% | 100% | |
| 10 | 0% | 100% | |
| 11 | 0% | 100% | |
| 12 | 0% | 100% | |
| 13 | 0% | 100% | |
| 14 | 0% | 100% | |
| 15 | 0% | 100% | |
| 16 | 0% | 100% | |
| 17 | 1.5% | 100% | |
| 18 | 20% | 98% | |
| 19 | 17% | 78% | |
| 20 | 45% | 61% | Median |
| 21 | 6% | 16% | |
| 22 | 9% | 11% | |
| 23 | 2% | 2% | |
| 24 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 25 | 0% | 0% |
Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands (S&D)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands (S&D) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 100% | |
| 2 | 0% | 100% | |
| 3 | 0% | 100% | |
| 4 | 0% | 100% | |
| 5 | 0% | 100% | |
| 6 | 0% | 100% | |
| 7 | 0% | 100% | |
| 8 | 0% | 100% | |
| 9 | 0% | 100% | |
| 10 | 0% | 100% | |
| 11 | 0.5% | 100% | |
| 12 | 31% | 99.5% | |
| 13 | 38% | 68% | Median |
| 14 | 24% | 30% | |
| 15 | 4% | 6% | |
| 16 | 2% | 2% | |
| 17 | 0% | 0% |
Bündnis 90/Die Grünen (Greens/EFA)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Bündnis 90/Die Grünen (Greens/EFA) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 100% | |
| 2 | 0% | 100% | |
| 3 | 0% | 100% | |
| 4 | 0% | 100% | |
| 5 | 0% | 100% | |
| 6 | 0% | 100% | |
| 7 | 0% | 100% | |
| 8 | 0% | 100% | |
| 9 | 1.2% | 100% | |
| 10 | 5% | 98.8% | |
| 11 | 32% | 94% | |
| 12 | 39% | 62% | Median |
| 13 | 22% | 23% | |
| 14 | 0.5% | 0.5% | |
| 15 | 0% | 0% |
Die Linke (GUE/NGL)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Die Linke (GUE/NGL) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 100% | |
| 2 | 0% | 100% | |
| 3 | 0% | 100% | |
| 4 | 0% | 100% | |
| 5 | 0% | 100% | |
| 6 | 0% | 100% | |
| 7 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 8 | 3% | 99.9% | |
| 9 | 58% | 97% | Median |
| 10 | 37% | 39% | |
| 11 | 2% | 3% | |
| 12 | 0.2% | 0.2% | |
| 13 | 0% | 0% |
Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern (EPP)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern (EPP) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 100% | |
| 2 | 0% | 100% | |
| 3 | 0% | 100% | |
| 4 | 2% | 100% | |
| 5 | 49% | 98% | Median |
| 6 | 49% | 49% | |
| 7 | 0.6% | 0.7% | |
| 8 | 0% | 0% |
Bündnis Sahra Wagenknecht (NI)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Bündnis Sahra Wagenknecht (NI) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 100% | |
| 2 | 0% | 100% | |
| 3 | 10% | 100% | |
| 4 | 64% | 90% | Median |
| 5 | 26% | 26% | |
| 6 | 0.5% | 0.5% | |
| 7 | 0% | 0% |
Freie Demokratische Partei (RE)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Freie Demokratische Partei (RE) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 100% | |
| 2 | 0.7% | 100% | |
| 3 | 36% | 99.3% | |
| 4 | 56% | 63% | Median |
| 5 | 7% | 7% | |
| 6 | 0.3% | 0.3% | |
| 7 | 0% | 0% |
Freie Wähler (RE)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Freie Wähler (RE) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 82% | 100% | Median |
| 2 | 18% | 18% | |
| 3 | 0% | 0% |
Partei Mensch Umwelt Tierschutz (GUE/NGL)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Partei Mensch Umwelt Tierschutz (GUE/NGL) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 25% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 73% | 75% | Median |
| 2 | 2% | 2% | |
| 3 | 0% | 0% |
Volt Europa (Greens/EFA)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Volt Europa (Greens/EFA) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 31% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 69% | 69% | Median |
| 2 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 3 | 0% | 0% |
Die PARTEI (NI)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Die PARTEI (NI) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 37% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 63% | 63% | Median |
| 2 | 0% | 0% |
Basisdemokratische Partei Deutschland (*)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Basisdemokratische Partei Deutschland (*) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 99.0% | 100% | Last Result, Median |
| 1 | 1.0% | 1.0% | |
| 2 | 0% | 0% |
Coalitions
Confidence Intervals
| Coalition | Last Result | Median | Majority? | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alternative für Deutschland (ESN) | 0 | 25 | 0% | 23–26 | 23–26 | 23–27 | 22–27 |
| Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands (S&D) | 0 | 13 | 0% | 12–14 | 12–15 | 12–15 | 12–16 |
| Freie Demokratische Partei (RE) – Freie Wähler (RE) | 0 | 5 | 0% | 4–6 | 4–6 | 4–6 | 4–6 |
| Bündnis Sahra Wagenknecht (NI) – Die PARTEI (NI) | 0 | 5 | 0% | 4–6 | 3–6 | 3–6 | 3–6 |
Alternative für Deutschland (ESN)
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 100% | |
| 2 | 0% | 100% | |
| 3 | 0% | 100% | |
| 4 | 0% | 100% | |
| 5 | 0% | 100% | |
| 6 | 0% | 100% | |
| 7 | 0% | 100% | |
| 8 | 0% | 100% | |
| 9 | 0% | 100% | |
| 10 | 0% | 100% | |
| 11 | 0% | 100% | |
| 12 | 0% | 100% | |
| 13 | 0% | 100% | |
| 14 | 0% | 100% | |
| 15 | 0% | 100% | |
| 16 | 0% | 100% | |
| 17 | 0% | 100% | |
| 18 | 0% | 100% | |
| 19 | 0% | 100% | |
| 20 | 0% | 100% | |
| 21 | 0.4% | 100% | |
| 22 | 0.7% | 99.6% | |
| 23 | 16% | 98.9% | |
| 24 | 15% | 83% | |
| 25 | 41% | 69% | Median |
| 26 | 25% | 28% | |
| 27 | 3% | 3% | |
| 28 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 29 | 0% | 0% |
Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands (S&D)
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 100% | |
| 2 | 0% | 100% | |
| 3 | 0% | 100% | |
| 4 | 0% | 100% | |
| 5 | 0% | 100% | |
| 6 | 0% | 100% | |
| 7 | 0% | 100% | |
| 8 | 0% | 100% | |
| 9 | 0% | 100% | |
| 10 | 0% | 100% | |
| 11 | 0.5% | 100% | |
| 12 | 31% | 99.5% | |
| 13 | 38% | 68% | Median |
| 14 | 24% | 30% | |
| 15 | 4% | 6% | |
| 16 | 2% | 2% | |
| 17 | 0% | 0% |
Freie Demokratische Partei (RE) – Freie Wähler (RE)
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 100% | |
| 2 | 0% | 100% | |
| 3 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 4 | 29% | 99.9% | |
| 5 | 54% | 71% | Median |
| 6 | 16% | 16% | |
| 7 | 0.5% | 0.5% | |
| 8 | 0% | 0% |
Bündnis Sahra Wagenknecht (NI) – Die PARTEI (NI)
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 100% | |
| 2 | 0% | 100% | |
| 3 | 10% | 100% | |
| 4 | 17% | 90% | |
| 5 | 59% | 74% | Median |
| 6 | 15% | 15% | |
| 7 | 0.3% | 0.3% | |
| 8 | 0% | 0% |
Technical Information
Opinion Poll
- Polling firm: Forschungsgruppe Wahlen
- Commissioner(s): ZDF
- Fieldwork period: 4–6 November 2025
Calculations
- Sample size: 1322
- Simulations done: 2,097,152
- Error estimate: 1.07%