Opinion Poll by Allensbach for Frankfurter Allgemeine Zeitung, 22 November–4 December 2025
Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information
Voting Intentions
Confidence Intervals
| Party | Last Result | Poll Result | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alternative für Deutschland (ESN) | 0.0% | 25.0% | 23.3–26.8% | 22.8–27.3% | 22.4–27.7% | 21.6–28.6% |
| Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands (EPP) | 0.0% | 21.3% | 19.7–23.0% | 19.3–23.5% | 18.9–23.9% | 18.2–24.7% |
| Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands (S&D) | 0.0% | 14.0% | 12.7–15.5% | 12.3–15.9% | 12.0–16.3% | 11.4–17.0% |
| Bündnis 90/Die Grünen (Greens/EFA) | 0.0% | 12.5% | 11.3–14.0% | 10.9–14.4% | 10.6–14.7% | 10.1–15.4% |
| Die Linke (GUE/NGL) | 0.0% | 9.0% | 8.0–10.3% | 7.7–10.6% | 7.4–11.0% | 7.0–11.6% |
| Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern (EPP) | 0.0% | 5.6% | 4.8–6.7% | 4.6–7.0% | 4.4–7.2% | 4.0–7.8% |
| Freie Demokratische Partei (RE) | 0.0% | 4.5% | 3.7–5.4% | 3.5–5.7% | 3.4–5.9% | 3.0–6.4% |
| Bündnis Sahra Wagenknecht (NI) | 0.0% | 3.0% | 2.4–3.8% | 2.3–4.1% | 2.1–4.3% | 1.9–4.7% |
| Freie Wähler (RE) | 0.0% | 1.7% | 1.3–2.4% | 1.2–2.6% | 1.1–2.8% | 0.9–3.1% |
| Partei Mensch Umwelt Tierschutz (GUE/NGL) | 0.0% | 1.1% | 0.7–1.6% | 0.7–1.8% | 0.6–1.9% | 0.5–2.2% |
| Volt Europa (Greens/EFA) | 0.0% | 0.8% | 0.5–1.3% | 0.4–1.4% | 0.4–1.5% | 0.3–1.8% |
| Die PARTEI (NI) | 0.0% | 0.6% | 0.4–1.0% | 0.3–1.2% | 0.3–1.3% | 0.2–1.5% |
| Basisdemokratische Partei Deutschland (*) | 0.0% | 0.2% | 0.1–0.5% | 0.1–0.6% | 0.0–0.7% | 0.0–0.9% |
Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.
Seats
Confidence Intervals
| Party | Last Result | Median | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alternative für Deutschland (ESN) | 0 | 23 | 22–26 | 21–26 | 21–26 | 20–27 |
| Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands (EPP) | 0 | 20 | 19–21 | 18–23 | 18–23 | 17–23 |
| Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands (S&D) | 0 | 13 | 13–14 | 12–15 | 11–15 | 10–16 |
| Bündnis 90/Die Grünen (Greens/EFA) | 0 | 13 | 11–14 | 10–14 | 10–14 | 10–15 |
| Die Linke (GUE/NGL) | 0 | 8 | 8–10 | 7–10 | 7–10 | 7–11 |
| Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern (EPP) | 0 | 6 | 5–6 | 4–6 | 4–6 | 4–7 |
| Freie Demokratische Partei (RE) | 0 | 4 | 3–5 | 3–5 | 3–5 | 3–6 |
| Bündnis Sahra Wagenknecht (NI) | 0 | 3 | 2–4 | 2–4 | 2–4 | 2–4 |
| Freie Wähler (RE) | 0 | 2 | 1–2 | 1–3 | 1–3 | 1–3 |
| Partei Mensch Umwelt Tierschutz (GUE/NGL) | 0 | 1 | 1–2 | 1–2 | 1–2 | 0–2 |
| Volt Europa (Greens/EFA) | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0–2 | 0–2 | 0–2 |
| Die PARTEI (NI) | 0 | 1 | 0–1 | 0–1 | 0–1 | 0–1 |
| Basisdemokratische Partei Deutschland (*) | 0 | 0 | 0–1 | 0–1 | 0–1 | 0–1 |
Alternative für Deutschland (ESN)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Alternative für Deutschland (ESN) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 100% | |
| 2 | 0% | 100% | |
| 3 | 0% | 100% | |
| 4 | 0% | 100% | |
| 5 | 0% | 100% | |
| 6 | 0% | 100% | |
| 7 | 0% | 100% | |
| 8 | 0% | 100% | |
| 9 | 0% | 100% | |
| 10 | 0% | 100% | |
| 11 | 0% | 100% | |
| 12 | 0% | 100% | |
| 13 | 0% | 100% | |
| 14 | 0% | 100% | |
| 15 | 0% | 100% | |
| 16 | 0% | 100% | |
| 17 | 0% | 100% | |
| 18 | 0% | 100% | |
| 19 | 0% | 100% | |
| 20 | 2% | 100% | |
| 21 | 5% | 98% | |
| 22 | 6% | 93% | |
| 23 | 50% | 87% | Median |
| 24 | 15% | 37% | |
| 25 | 10% | 22% | |
| 26 | 11% | 12% | |
| 27 | 0.7% | 1.0% | |
| 28 | 0.3% | 0.3% | |
| 29 | 0% | 0% |
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands (EPP)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands (EPP) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 100% | |
| 2 | 0% | 100% | |
| 3 | 0% | 100% | |
| 4 | 0% | 100% | |
| 5 | 0% | 100% | |
| 6 | 0% | 100% | |
| 7 | 0% | 100% | |
| 8 | 0% | 100% | |
| 9 | 0% | 100% | |
| 10 | 0% | 100% | |
| 11 | 0% | 100% | |
| 12 | 0% | 100% | |
| 13 | 0% | 100% | |
| 14 | 0% | 100% | |
| 15 | 0% | 100% | |
| 16 | 0.2% | 100% | |
| 17 | 2% | 99.8% | |
| 18 | 4% | 98% | |
| 19 | 42% | 95% | |
| 20 | 31% | 53% | Median |
| 21 | 13% | 22% | |
| 22 | 3% | 9% | |
| 23 | 5% | 6% | |
| 24 | 0.3% | 0.4% | |
| 25 | 0% | 0% |
Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands (S&D)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands (S&D) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 100% | |
| 2 | 0% | 100% | |
| 3 | 0% | 100% | |
| 4 | 0% | 100% | |
| 5 | 0% | 100% | |
| 6 | 0% | 100% | |
| 7 | 0% | 100% | |
| 8 | 0% | 100% | |
| 9 | 0% | 100% | |
| 10 | 2% | 100% | |
| 11 | 1.3% | 98% | |
| 12 | 6% | 97% | |
| 13 | 48% | 91% | Median |
| 14 | 38% | 43% | |
| 15 | 4% | 5% | |
| 16 | 0.8% | 0.9% | |
| 17 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 18 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 19 | 0% | 0% |
Bündnis 90/Die Grünen (Greens/EFA)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Bündnis 90/Die Grünen (Greens/EFA) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 100% | |
| 2 | 0% | 100% | |
| 3 | 0% | 100% | |
| 4 | 0% | 100% | |
| 5 | 0% | 100% | |
| 6 | 0% | 100% | |
| 7 | 0% | 100% | |
| 8 | 0% | 100% | |
| 9 | 0.2% | 100% | |
| 10 | 7% | 99.8% | |
| 11 | 21% | 92% | |
| 12 | 14% | 72% | |
| 13 | 42% | 58% | Median |
| 14 | 15% | 15% | |
| 15 | 0.4% | 0.6% | |
| 16 | 0.2% | 0.2% | |
| 17 | 0% | 0% |
Die Linke (GUE/NGL)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Die Linke (GUE/NGL) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 100% | |
| 2 | 0% | 100% | |
| 3 | 0% | 100% | |
| 4 | 0% | 100% | |
| 5 | 0% | 100% | |
| 6 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 7 | 6% | 99.8% | |
| 8 | 45% | 93% | Median |
| 9 | 20% | 48% | |
| 10 | 28% | 28% | |
| 11 | 0.5% | 0.7% | |
| 12 | 0.2% | 0.2% | |
| 13 | 0% | 0% |
Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern (EPP)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern (EPP) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 100% | |
| 2 | 0% | 100% | |
| 3 | 0% | 100% | |
| 4 | 9% | 100% | |
| 5 | 37% | 91% | |
| 6 | 52% | 54% | Median |
| 7 | 2% | 2% | |
| 8 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 9 | 0% | 0% |
Freie Demokratische Partei (RE)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Freie Demokratische Partei (RE) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 100% | |
| 2 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 3 | 24% | 99.9% | |
| 4 | 58% | 76% | Median |
| 5 | 16% | 18% | |
| 6 | 2% | 2% | |
| 7 | 0% | 0% |
Bündnis Sahra Wagenknecht (NI)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Bündnis Sahra Wagenknecht (NI) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 2 | 11% | 99.9% | |
| 3 | 49% | 89% | Median |
| 4 | 40% | 40% | |
| 5 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 6 | 0% | 0% |
Freie Wähler (RE)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Freie Wähler (RE) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 34% | 100% | |
| 2 | 58% | 66% | Median |
| 3 | 8% | 8% | |
| 4 | 0% | 0% |
Partei Mensch Umwelt Tierschutz (GUE/NGL)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Partei Mensch Umwelt Tierschutz (GUE/NGL) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0.9% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 89% | 99.1% | Median |
| 2 | 10% | 10% | |
| 3 | 0% | 0% |
Volt Europa (Greens/EFA)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Volt Europa (Greens/EFA) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 83% | 92% | Median |
| 2 | 9% | 9% | |
| 3 | 0% | 0% |
Die PARTEI (NI)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Die PARTEI (NI) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 14% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 86% | 86% | Median |
| 2 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 3 | 0% | 0% |
Basisdemokratische Partei Deutschland (*)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Basisdemokratische Partei Deutschland (*) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 74% | 100% | Last Result, Median |
| 1 | 26% | 26% | |
| 2 | 0% | 0% |
Coalitions
Confidence Intervals
| Coalition | Last Result | Median | Majority? | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alternative für Deutschland (ESN) | 0 | 23 | 0% | 22–26 | 21–26 | 21–26 | 20–27 |
| Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands (S&D) | 0 | 13 | 0% | 13–14 | 12–15 | 11–15 | 10–16 |
| Freie Demokratische Partei (RE) – Freie Wähler (RE) | 0 | 6 | 0% | 4–7 | 4–7 | 4–7 | 4–8 |
| Bündnis Sahra Wagenknecht (NI) – Die PARTEI (NI) | 0 | 4 | 0% | 3–5 | 3–5 | 2–5 | 2–5 |
Alternative für Deutschland (ESN)
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 100% | |
| 2 | 0% | 100% | |
| 3 | 0% | 100% | |
| 4 | 0% | 100% | |
| 5 | 0% | 100% | |
| 6 | 0% | 100% | |
| 7 | 0% | 100% | |
| 8 | 0% | 100% | |
| 9 | 0% | 100% | |
| 10 | 0% | 100% | |
| 11 | 0% | 100% | |
| 12 | 0% | 100% | |
| 13 | 0% | 100% | |
| 14 | 0% | 100% | |
| 15 | 0% | 100% | |
| 16 | 0% | 100% | |
| 17 | 0% | 100% | |
| 18 | 0% | 100% | |
| 19 | 0% | 100% | |
| 20 | 2% | 100% | |
| 21 | 5% | 98% | |
| 22 | 6% | 93% | |
| 23 | 50% | 87% | Median |
| 24 | 15% | 37% | |
| 25 | 10% | 22% | |
| 26 | 11% | 12% | |
| 27 | 0.7% | 1.0% | |
| 28 | 0.3% | 0.3% | |
| 29 | 0% | 0% |
Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands (S&D)
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 100% | |
| 2 | 0% | 100% | |
| 3 | 0% | 100% | |
| 4 | 0% | 100% | |
| 5 | 0% | 100% | |
| 6 | 0% | 100% | |
| 7 | 0% | 100% | |
| 8 | 0% | 100% | |
| 9 | 0% | 100% | |
| 10 | 2% | 100% | |
| 11 | 1.3% | 98% | |
| 12 | 6% | 97% | |
| 13 | 48% | 91% | Median |
| 14 | 38% | 43% | |
| 15 | 4% | 5% | |
| 16 | 0.8% | 0.9% | |
| 17 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 18 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 19 | 0% | 0% |
Freie Demokratische Partei (RE) – Freie Wähler (RE)
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 100% | |
| 2 | 0% | 100% | |
| 3 | 0% | 100% | |
| 4 | 20% | 100% | |
| 5 | 9% | 80% | |
| 6 | 54% | 71% | Median |
| 7 | 16% | 17% | |
| 8 | 1.2% | 1.2% | |
| 9 | 0% | 0% |
Bündnis Sahra Wagenknecht (NI) – Die PARTEI (NI)
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 100% | |
| 2 | 3% | 100% | |
| 3 | 17% | 97% | |
| 4 | 41% | 80% | Median |
| 5 | 39% | 39% | |
| 6 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 7 | 0% | 0% |
Technical Information
Opinion Poll
- Polling firm: Allensbach
- Commissioner(s): Frankfurter Allgemeine Zeitung
- Fieldwork period: 22 November–4 December 2025
Calculations
- Sample size: 1029
- Simulations done: 2,097,152
- Error estimate: 2.61%