Opinion Poll by INSA and YouGov for BILD, 5–8 December 2025

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Alternative für Deutschland (ESN) 0.0% 26.5% 25.3–27.8% 24.9–28.2% 24.6–28.5% 24.0–29.1%
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands (EPP) 0.0% 19.3% 18.2–20.5% 17.9–20.8% 17.6–21.1% 17.1–21.7%
Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands (S&D) 0.0% 15.0% 14.0–16.1% 13.7–16.4% 13.5–16.6% 13.0–17.2%
Die Linke (GUE/NGL) 0.0% 11.0% 10.2–12.0% 9.9–12.2% 9.7–12.5% 9.3–12.9%
Bündnis 90/Die Grünen (Greens/EFA) 0.0% 10.5% 9.7–11.4% 9.4–11.7% 9.2–11.9% 8.9–12.4%
Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern (EPP) 0.0% 5.1% 4.5–5.8% 4.4–6.0% 4.2–6.2% 4.0–6.5%
Bündnis Sahra Wagenknecht (NI) 0.0% 4.0% 3.5–4.6% 3.3–4.8% 3.2–4.9% 3.0–5.3%
Freie Demokratische Partei (RE) 0.0% 4.0% 3.5–4.6% 3.3–4.8% 3.2–4.9% 3.0–5.3%
Freie Wähler (RE) 0.0% 1.5% 1.2–2.0% 1.2–2.1% 1.1–2.2% 1.0–2.4%
Partei Mensch Umwelt Tierschutz (GUE/NGL) 0.0% 0.9% 0.7–1.3% 0.7–1.4% 0.6–1.5% 0.5–1.7%
Volt Europa (Greens/EFA) 0.0% 0.7% 0.5–1.0% 0.5–1.1% 0.4–1.2% 0.3–1.3%
Die PARTEI (NI) 0.0% 0.5% 0.3–0.8% 0.3–0.9% 0.3–0.9% 0.2–1.1%
Basisdemokratische Partei Deutschland (*) 0.0% 0.1% 0.1–0.3% 0.1–0.4% 0.0–0.4% 0.0–0.5%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Alternative für Deutschland (ESN) 0 25 23–27 23–27 23–27 23–29
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands (EPP) 0 18 18–19 17–19 17–20 16–20
Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands (S&D) 0 15 14–16 13–16 13–16 13–16
Die Linke (GUE/NGL) 0 11 10–11 10–11 10–12 9–12
Bündnis 90/Die Grünen (Greens/EFA) 0 10 9–11 9–11 8–11 8–12
Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern (EPP) 0 5 4–6 4–6 4–6 4–6
Bündnis Sahra Wagenknecht (NI) 0 4 3–4 3–4 3–4 3–5
Freie Demokratische Partei (RE) 0 4 3–4 3–4 3–5 3–5
Freie Wähler (RE) 0 1 1–2 1–2 1–2 1–2
Partei Mensch Umwelt Tierschutz (GUE/NGL) 0 1 1 1 1 1
Volt Europa (Greens/EFA) 0 1 0–1 0–1 0–1 0–1
Die PARTEI (NI) 0 1 0–1 0–1 0–1 0–1
Basisdemokratische Partei Deutschland (*) 0 0 0 0 0–1 0–1

Alternative für Deutschland (ESN)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Alternative für Deutschland (ESN) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 0% 100%  
4 0% 100%  
5 0% 100%  
6 0% 100%  
7 0% 100%  
8 0% 100%  
9 0% 100%  
10 0% 100%  
11 0% 100%  
12 0% 100%  
13 0% 100%  
14 0% 100%  
15 0% 100%  
16 0% 100%  
17 0% 100%  
18 0% 100%  
19 0% 100%  
20 0% 100%  
21 0% 100%  
22 0.2% 100%  
23 17% 99.8%  
24 6% 83%  
25 55% 77% Median
26 7% 22%  
27 12% 14%  
28 2% 2%  
29 0.6% 0.6%  
30 0% 0%  

Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands (EPP)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands (EPP) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 0% 100%  
4 0% 100%  
5 0% 100%  
6 0% 100%  
7 0% 100%  
8 0% 100%  
9 0% 100%  
10 0% 100%  
11 0% 100%  
12 0% 100%  
13 0% 100%  
14 0% 100%  
15 0% 100%  
16 0.7% 100%  
17 6% 99.3%  
18 60% 93% Median
19 29% 34%  
20 4% 5%  
21 0.3% 0.3%  
22 0% 0%  

Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands (S&D)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands (S&D) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 0% 100%  
4 0% 100%  
5 0% 100%  
6 0% 100%  
7 0% 100%  
8 0% 100%  
9 0% 100%  
10 0% 100%  
11 0% 100%  
12 0.3% 100%  
13 5% 99.7%  
14 29% 95%  
15 49% 65% Median
16 17% 17%  
17 0.1% 0.1%  
18 0% 0%  

Die Linke (GUE/NGL)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Die Linke (GUE/NGL) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 0% 100%  
4 0% 100%  
5 0% 100%  
6 0% 100%  
7 0% 100%  
8 0% 100%  
9 1.2% 100%  
10 27% 98.8%  
11 68% 72% Median
12 3% 3%  
13 0.1% 0.1%  
14 0% 0%  

Bündnis 90/Die Grünen (Greens/EFA)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Bündnis 90/Die Grünen (Greens/EFA) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 0% 100%  
4 0% 100%  
5 0% 100%  
6 0% 100%  
7 0.1% 100%  
8 3% 99.9%  
9 14% 97%  
10 62% 83% Median
11 20% 21%  
12 1.0% 1.0%  
13 0% 0%  

Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern (EPP)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern (EPP) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 0% 100%  
4 26% 100%  
5 32% 74% Median
6 42% 42%  
7 0.1% 0.1%  
8 0% 0%  

Bündnis Sahra Wagenknecht (NI)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Bündnis Sahra Wagenknecht (NI) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 13% 100%  
4 86% 87% Median
5 2% 2%  
6 0% 0%  

Freie Demokratische Partei (RE)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Freie Demokratische Partei (RE) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 47% 100%  
4 49% 53% Median
5 5% 5%  
6 0% 0%  

Freie Wähler (RE)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Freie Wähler (RE) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 75% 100% Median
2 25% 25%  
3 0.3% 0.3%  
4 0% 0%  

Partei Mensch Umwelt Tierschutz (GUE/NGL)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Partei Mensch Umwelt Tierschutz (GUE/NGL) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0.1% 100% Last Result
1 99.5% 99.9% Median
2 0.4% 0.4%  
3 0% 0%  

Volt Europa (Greens/EFA)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Volt Europa (Greens/EFA) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 50% 100% Last Result
1 50% 50% Median
2 0% 0%  

Die PARTEI (NI)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Die PARTEI (NI) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 18% 100% Last Result
1 82% 82% Median
2 0% 0%  

Basisdemokratische Partei Deutschland (*)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Basisdemokratische Partei Deutschland (*) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 97% 100% Last Result, Median
1 3% 3%  
2 0% 0%  

Coalitions

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Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median Majority? 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Alternative für Deutschland (ESN) 0 25 0% 23–27 23–27 23–27 23–29
Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands (S&D) 0 15 0% 14–16 13–16 13–16 13–16
Freie Demokratische Partei (RE) – Freie Wähler (RE) 0 5 0% 4–6 4–6 4–7 4–7
Bündnis Sahra Wagenknecht (NI) – Die PARTEI (NI) 0 5 0% 4–5 3–5 3–5 3–6

Alternative für Deutschland (ESN)

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 0% 100%  
4 0% 100%  
5 0% 100%  
6 0% 100%  
7 0% 100%  
8 0% 100%  
9 0% 100%  
10 0% 100%  
11 0% 100%  
12 0% 100%  
13 0% 100%  
14 0% 100%  
15 0% 100%  
16 0% 100%  
17 0% 100%  
18 0% 100%  
19 0% 100%  
20 0% 100%  
21 0% 100%  
22 0.2% 100%  
23 17% 99.8%  
24 6% 83%  
25 55% 77% Median
26 7% 22%  
27 12% 14%  
28 2% 2%  
29 0.6% 0.6%  
30 0% 0%  

Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands (S&D)

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 0% 100%  
4 0% 100%  
5 0% 100%  
6 0% 100%  
7 0% 100%  
8 0% 100%  
9 0% 100%  
10 0% 100%  
11 0% 100%  
12 0.3% 100%  
13 5% 99.7%  
14 29% 95%  
15 49% 65% Median
16 17% 17%  
17 0.1% 0.1%  
18 0% 0%  

Freie Demokratische Partei (RE) – Freie Wähler (RE)

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 0% 100%  
4 41% 100%  
5 38% 59% Median
6 17% 21%  
7 4% 4%  
8 0% 0%  

Bündnis Sahra Wagenknecht (NI) – Die PARTEI (NI)

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 10% 100%  
4 11% 90%  
5 79% 80% Median
6 0.8% 0.8%  
7 0% 0%  

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

Calculations