Opinion Poll by YouGov, 12–15 December 2025

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Alternative für Deutschland (ESN) 0.0% 25.8% 24.4–27.1% 24.1–27.5% 23.8–27.9% 23.1–28.5%
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands (EPP) 0.0% 20.3% 19.1–21.6% 18.8–21.9% 18.5–22.3% 17.9–22.9%
Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands (S&D) 0.0% 13.9% 12.9–15.0% 12.6–15.3% 12.3–15.6% 11.9–16.1%
Bündnis 90/Die Grünen (Greens/EFA) 0.0% 11.9% 10.9–12.9% 10.7–13.2% 10.4–13.5% 10.0–14.0%
Die Linke (GUE/NGL) 0.0% 9.9% 9.1–10.9% 8.8–11.2% 8.6–11.4% 8.2–11.9%
Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern (EPP) 0.0% 5.4% 4.8–6.2% 4.6–6.4% 4.4–6.6% 4.1–7.0%
Bündnis Sahra Wagenknecht (NI) 0.0% 4.0% 3.4–4.6% 3.3–4.8% 3.1–5.0% 2.9–5.3%
Freie Demokratische Partei (RE) 0.0% 4.0% 3.4–4.6% 3.3–4.8% 3.1–5.0% 2.9–5.3%
Freie Wähler (RE) 0.0% 1.7% 1.3–2.1% 1.2–2.3% 1.2–2.4% 1.0–2.6%
Partei Mensch Umwelt Tierschutz (GUE/NGL) 0.0% 1.0% 0.8–1.4% 0.7–1.5% 0.7–1.6% 0.5–1.8%
Volt Europa (Greens/EFA) 0.0% 0.7% 0.5–1.1% 0.5–1.2% 0.4–1.3% 0.4–1.5%
Die PARTEI (NI) 0.0% 0.5% 0.4–0.8% 0.3–0.9% 0.3–1.0% 0.2–1.1%
Basisdemokratische Partei Deutschland (*) 0.0% 0.2% 0.1–0.4% 0.1–0.5% 0.1–0.5% 0.0–0.6%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Alternative für Deutschland (ESN) 0 24 23–25 22–26 22–26 21–27
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands (EPP) 0 20 18–21 18–21 18–22 17–22
Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands (S&D) 0 13 12–15 12–15 12–15 12–15
Bündnis 90/Die Grünen (Greens/EFA) 0 12 11–13 10–13 10–13 9–13
Die Linke (GUE/NGL) 0 9 8–10 8–10 8–11 8–11
Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern (EPP) 0 5 5–7 4–7 4–7 4–7
Bündnis Sahra Wagenknecht (NI) 0 3 3–4 3–4 3–5 3–5
Freie Demokratische Partei (RE) 0 4 3–5 3–5 3–5 3–5
Freie Wähler (RE) 0 2 1–2 1–2 1–2 1–2
Partei Mensch Umwelt Tierschutz (GUE/NGL) 0 1 1 1 1–2 1–2
Volt Europa (Greens/EFA) 0 1 1 1 0–1 0–1
Die PARTEI (NI) 0 0 0–1 0–1 0–1 0–1
Basisdemokratische Partei Deutschland (*) 0 0 0 0 0–1 0–1

Alternative für Deutschland (ESN)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Alternative für Deutschland (ESN) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 0% 100%  
4 0% 100%  
5 0% 100%  
6 0% 100%  
7 0% 100%  
8 0% 100%  
9 0% 100%  
10 0% 100%  
11 0% 100%  
12 0% 100%  
13 0% 100%  
14 0% 100%  
15 0% 100%  
16 0% 100%  
17 0% 100%  
18 0% 100%  
19 0% 100%  
20 0% 100%  
21 0.7% 100%  
22 6% 99.3%  
23 10% 93%  
24 35% 83% Median
25 41% 48%  
26 7% 8%  
27 0.5% 0.6%  
28 0.1% 0.1%  
29 0% 0%  

Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands (EPP)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands (EPP) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 0% 100%  
4 0% 100%  
5 0% 100%  
6 0% 100%  
7 0% 100%  
8 0% 100%  
9 0% 100%  
10 0% 100%  
11 0% 100%  
12 0% 100%  
13 0% 100%  
14 0% 100%  
15 0% 100%  
16 0% 100%  
17 2% 100%  
18 19% 98%  
19 23% 79%  
20 46% 56% Median
21 6% 10%  
22 4% 4%  
23 0% 0%  

Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands (S&D)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands (S&D) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 0% 100%  
4 0% 100%  
5 0% 100%  
6 0% 100%  
7 0% 100%  
8 0% 100%  
9 0% 100%  
10 0% 100%  
11 0.3% 100%  
12 39% 99.7%  
13 27% 61% Median
14 24% 34%  
15 10% 10%  
16 0.4% 0.4%  
17 0% 0%  

Bündnis 90/Die Grünen (Greens/EFA)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Bündnis 90/Die Grünen (Greens/EFA) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 0% 100%  
4 0% 100%  
5 0% 100%  
6 0% 100%  
7 0% 100%  
8 0% 100%  
9 1.1% 100%  
10 5% 98.8%  
11 29% 94%  
12 27% 66% Median
13 38% 38%  
14 0.1% 0.1%  
15 0% 0%  

Die Linke (GUE/NGL)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Die Linke (GUE/NGL) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 0% 100%  
4 0% 100%  
5 0% 100%  
6 0% 100%  
7 0.4% 100%  
8 14% 99.6%  
9 62% 86% Median
10 21% 24%  
11 3% 3%  
12 0.3% 0.3%  
13 0% 0%  

Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern (EPP)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern (EPP) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 0% 100%  
4 9% 100%  
5 60% 91% Median
6 21% 31%  
7 10% 10%  
8 0% 0%  

Bündnis Sahra Wagenknecht (NI)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Bündnis Sahra Wagenknecht (NI) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 51% 100% Median
4 47% 49%  
5 3% 3%  
6 0% 0%  

Freie Demokratische Partei (RE)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Freie Demokratische Partei (RE) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 11% 100%  
4 74% 89% Median
5 14% 14%  
6 0% 0%  

Freie Wähler (RE)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Freie Wähler (RE) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 14% 100%  
2 86% 86% Median
3 0.4% 0.4%  
4 0% 0%  

Partei Mensch Umwelt Tierschutz (GUE/NGL)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Partei Mensch Umwelt Tierschutz (GUE/NGL) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0.1% 100% Last Result
1 96% 99.9% Median
2 4% 4%  
3 0% 0%  

Volt Europa (Greens/EFA)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Volt Europa (Greens/EFA) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 4% 100% Last Result
1 96% 96% Median
2 0.3% 0.3%  
3 0% 0%  

Die PARTEI (NI)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Die PARTEI (NI) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 70% 100% Last Result, Median
1 30% 30%  
2 0% 0%  

Basisdemokratische Partei Deutschland (*)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Basisdemokratische Partei Deutschland (*) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 96% 100% Last Result, Median
1 4% 4%  
2 0% 0%  

Coalitions

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Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median Majority? 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Alternative für Deutschland (ESN) 0 24 0% 23–25 22–26 22–26 21–27
Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands (S&D) 0 13 0% 12–15 12–15 12–15 12–15
Freie Demokratische Partei (RE) – Freie Wähler (RE) 0 6 0% 5–7 5–7 5–7 4–7
Bündnis Sahra Wagenknecht (NI) – Die PARTEI (NI) 0 4 0% 3–5 3–5 3–5 3–6

Alternative für Deutschland (ESN)

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 0% 100%  
4 0% 100%  
5 0% 100%  
6 0% 100%  
7 0% 100%  
8 0% 100%  
9 0% 100%  
10 0% 100%  
11 0% 100%  
12 0% 100%  
13 0% 100%  
14 0% 100%  
15 0% 100%  
16 0% 100%  
17 0% 100%  
18 0% 100%  
19 0% 100%  
20 0% 100%  
21 0.7% 100%  
22 6% 99.3%  
23 10% 93%  
24 35% 83% Median
25 41% 48%  
26 7% 8%  
27 0.5% 0.6%  
28 0.1% 0.1%  
29 0% 0%  

Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands (S&D)

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 0% 100%  
4 0% 100%  
5 0% 100%  
6 0% 100%  
7 0% 100%  
8 0% 100%  
9 0% 100%  
10 0% 100%  
11 0.3% 100%  
12 39% 99.7%  
13 27% 61% Median
14 24% 34%  
15 10% 10%  
16 0.4% 0.4%  
17 0% 0%  

Freie Demokratische Partei (RE) – Freie Wähler (RE)

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 0% 100%  
4 2% 100%  
5 20% 98%  
6 65% 78% Median
7 13% 13%  
8 0% 0%  

Bündnis Sahra Wagenknecht (NI) – Die PARTEI (NI)

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 44% 100% Median
4 33% 56%  
5 22% 24%  
6 2% 2%  
7 0% 0%  

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

Calculations