Opinion Poll by Forsa, 16–19 December 2025

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Alternative für Deutschland (ESN) 0.0% 26.0% 24.6–27.5% 24.1–27.9% 23.8–28.3% 23.1–29.0%
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands (EPP) 0.0% 19.0% 17.7–20.3% 17.3–20.7% 17.0–21.0% 16.4–21.7%
Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands (S&D) 0.0% 13.0% 11.9–14.2% 11.7–14.5% 11.4–14.8% 10.9–15.4%
Bündnis 90/Die Grünen (Greens/EFA) 0.0% 13.0% 11.9–14.2% 11.7–14.5% 11.4–14.8% 10.9–15.4%
Die Linke (GUE/NGL) 0.0% 11.0% 10.0–12.1% 9.7–12.4% 9.5–12.7% 9.1–13.2%
Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern (EPP) 0.0% 5.1% 4.4–5.9% 4.2–6.1% 4.1–6.3% 3.7–6.7%
Bündnis Sahra Wagenknecht (NI) 0.0% 3.0% 2.5–3.6% 2.3–3.8% 2.2–4.0% 2.0–4.3%
Freie Demokratische Partei (RE) 0.0% 3.0% 2.5–3.6% 2.3–3.8% 2.2–4.0% 2.0–4.3%
Freie Wähler (RE) 0.0% 2.4% 1.9–3.0% 1.8–3.1% 1.7–3.3% 1.5–3.6%
Partei Mensch Umwelt Tierschutz (GUE/NGL) 0.0% 1.5% 1.1–2.0% 1.1–2.1% 1.0–2.2% 0.8–2.5%
Volt Europa (Greens/EFA) 0.0% 1.1% 0.8–1.5% 0.7–1.6% 0.7–1.8% 0.5–2.0%
Die PARTEI (NI) 0.0% 0.7% 0.5–1.1% 0.5–1.2% 0.4–1.3% 0.3–1.5%
Basisdemokratische Partei Deutschland (*) 0.0% 0.3% 0.2–0.5% 0.1–0.6% 0.1–0.7% 0.1–0.9%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Alternative für Deutschland (ESN) 0 25 23–26 23–27 22–27 22–28
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands (EPP) 0 18 17–19 17–19 16–20 16–20
Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands (S&D) 0 13 11–13 11–14 11–14 10–14
Bündnis 90/Die Grünen (Greens/EFA) 0 13 11–14 11–14 11–14 10–15
Die Linke (GUE/NGL) 0 10 9–12 9–12 9–12 9–12
Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern (EPP) 0 5 4–5 4–6 4–6 4–7
Bündnis Sahra Wagenknecht (NI) 0 3 2–3 2–4 2–4 2–4
Freie Demokratische Partei (RE) 0 3 2–3 2–4 2–4 2–4
Freie Wähler (RE) 0 2 2–3 2–3 2–3 1–3
Partei Mensch Umwelt Tierschutz (GUE/NGL) 0 1 1–2 1–2 1–2 1–2
Volt Europa (Greens/EFA) 0 1 1 1–2 1–2 0–2
Die PARTEI (NI) 0 1 0–1 0–1 0–1 0–2
Basisdemokratische Partei Deutschland (*) 0 0 0–1 0–1 0–1 0–1

Alternative für Deutschland (ESN)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Alternative für Deutschland (ESN) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 0% 100%  
4 0% 100%  
5 0% 100%  
6 0% 100%  
7 0% 100%  
8 0% 100%  
9 0% 100%  
10 0% 100%  
11 0% 100%  
12 0% 100%  
13 0% 100%  
14 0% 100%  
15 0% 100%  
16 0% 100%  
17 0% 100%  
18 0% 100%  
19 0% 100%  
20 0% 100%  
21 0.2% 100%  
22 4% 99.8%  
23 19% 96%  
24 14% 77%  
25 44% 63% Median
26 13% 19%  
27 4% 6%  
28 2% 2%  
29 0% 0%  

Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands (EPP)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands (EPP) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 0% 100%  
4 0% 100%  
5 0% 100%  
6 0% 100%  
7 0% 100%  
8 0% 100%  
9 0% 100%  
10 0% 100%  
11 0% 100%  
12 0% 100%  
13 0% 100%  
14 0% 100%  
15 0.4% 100%  
16 4% 99.6%  
17 15% 95%  
18 48% 80% Median
19 28% 32%  
20 4% 4%  
21 0.4% 0.4%  
22 0% 0%  

Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands (S&D)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands (S&D) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 0% 100%  
4 0% 100%  
5 0% 100%  
6 0% 100%  
7 0% 100%  
8 0% 100%  
9 0% 100%  
10 1.4% 100%  
11 17% 98.6%  
12 19% 81%  
13 56% 62% Median
14 6% 6%  
15 0.4% 0.5%  
16 0.1% 0.1%  
17 0% 0%  

Bündnis 90/Die Grünen (Greens/EFA)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Bündnis 90/Die Grünen (Greens/EFA) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 0% 100%  
4 0% 100%  
5 0% 100%  
6 0% 100%  
7 0% 100%  
8 0% 100%  
9 0% 100%  
10 2% 100%  
11 13% 98%  
12 18% 86%  
13 50% 68% Median
14 17% 18%  
15 0.8% 0.8%  
16 0% 0%  

Die Linke (GUE/NGL)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Die Linke (GUE/NGL) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 0% 100%  
4 0% 100%  
5 0% 100%  
6 0% 100%  
7 0% 100%  
8 0.2% 100%  
9 14% 99.8%  
10 43% 86% Median
11 30% 43%  
12 12% 12%  
13 0.4% 0.4%  
14 0.1% 0.1%  
15 0% 0%  

Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern (EPP)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern (EPP) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 0.3% 100%  
4 20% 99.7%  
5 70% 79% Median
6 8% 9%  
7 2% 2%  
8 0% 0%  

Bündnis Sahra Wagenknecht (NI)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Bündnis Sahra Wagenknecht (NI) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 18% 100%  
3 74% 82% Median
4 7% 8%  
5 0% 0%  

Freie Demokratische Partei (RE)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Freie Demokratische Partei (RE) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 18% 100%  
3 75% 82% Median
4 7% 7%  
5 0.1% 0.1%  
6 0% 0%  

Freie Wähler (RE)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Freie Wähler (RE) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 1.1% 100%  
2 55% 98.9% Median
3 44% 44%  
4 0.2% 0.2%  
5 0% 0%  

Partei Mensch Umwelt Tierschutz (GUE/NGL)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Partei Mensch Umwelt Tierschutz (GUE/NGL) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 55% 100% Median
2 44% 45%  
3 0.1% 0.1%  
4 0% 0%  

Volt Europa (Greens/EFA)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Volt Europa (Greens/EFA) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0.6% 100% Last Result
1 92% 99.4% Median
2 8% 8%  
3 0% 0%  

Die PARTEI (NI)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Die PARTEI (NI) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 17% 100% Last Result
1 81% 83% Median
2 1.5% 1.5%  
3 0% 0%  

Basisdemokratische Partei Deutschland (*)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Basisdemokratische Partei Deutschland (*) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 87% 100% Last Result, Median
1 13% 13%  
2 0% 0%  

Coalitions

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Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median Majority? 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Alternative für Deutschland (ESN) 0 25 0% 23–26 23–27 22–27 22–28
Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands (S&D) 0 13 0% 11–13 11–14 11–14 10–14
Freie Demokratische Partei (RE) – Freie Wähler (RE) 0 5 0% 5–6 5–6 4–6 4–7
Bündnis Sahra Wagenknecht (NI) – Die PARTEI (NI) 0 4 0% 3–4 3–5 3–5 2–5

Alternative für Deutschland (ESN)

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 0% 100%  
4 0% 100%  
5 0% 100%  
6 0% 100%  
7 0% 100%  
8 0% 100%  
9 0% 100%  
10 0% 100%  
11 0% 100%  
12 0% 100%  
13 0% 100%  
14 0% 100%  
15 0% 100%  
16 0% 100%  
17 0% 100%  
18 0% 100%  
19 0% 100%  
20 0% 100%  
21 0.2% 100%  
22 4% 99.8%  
23 19% 96%  
24 14% 77%  
25 44% 63% Median
26 13% 19%  
27 4% 6%  
28 2% 2%  
29 0% 0%  

Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands (S&D)

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 0% 100%  
4 0% 100%  
5 0% 100%  
6 0% 100%  
7 0% 100%  
8 0% 100%  
9 0% 100%  
10 1.4% 100%  
11 17% 98.6%  
12 19% 81%  
13 56% 62% Median
14 6% 6%  
15 0.4% 0.5%  
16 0.1% 0.1%  
17 0% 0%  

Freie Demokratische Partei (RE) – Freie Wähler (RE)

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 0.4% 100%  
4 4% 99.6%  
5 60% 95% Median
6 33% 35%  
7 2% 2%  
8 0% 0%  

Bündnis Sahra Wagenknecht (NI) – Die PARTEI (NI)

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0.9% 100%  
3 33% 99.1%  
4 58% 66% Median
5 8% 8%  
6 0% 0%  

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

Calculations