Opinion Poll by INSA and YouGov for BILD, 2–5 January 2026

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Alternative für Deutschland (ESN) 0.0% 25.5% 24.3–26.8% 23.9–27.1% 23.6–27.5% 23.1–28.1%
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands (EPP) 0.0% 19.7% 18.6–20.9% 18.3–21.2% 18.0–21.5% 17.5–22.1%
Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands (S&D) 0.0% 14.5% 13.5–15.5% 13.2–15.9% 13.0–16.1% 12.6–16.6%
Die Linke (GUE/NGL) 0.0% 11.0% 10.2–11.9% 9.9–12.2% 9.7–12.5% 9.3–12.9%
Bündnis 90/Die Grünen (Greens/EFA) 0.0% 11.0% 10.2–11.9% 9.9–12.2% 9.7–12.5% 9.3–12.9%
Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern (EPP) 0.0% 5.3% 4.7–6.0% 4.5–6.2% 4.4–6.4% 4.1–6.7%
Bündnis Sahra Wagenknecht (NI) 0.0% 4.0% 3.5–4.6% 3.3–4.8% 3.2–4.9% 3.0–5.3%
Freie Demokratische Partei (RE) 0.0% 3.5% 3.0–4.1% 2.9–4.2% 2.8–4.4% 2.5–4.7%
Freie Wähler (RE) 0.0% 1.9% 1.6–2.3% 1.4–2.5% 1.4–2.6% 1.2–2.8%
Partei Mensch Umwelt Tierschutz (GUE/NGL) 0.0% 1.2% 0.9–1.6% 0.9–1.7% 0.8–1.8% 0.7–2.0%
Volt Europa (Greens/EFA) 0.0% 0.8% 0.6–1.2% 0.6–1.3% 0.5–1.4% 0.4–1.5%
Die PARTEI (NI) 0.0% 0.6% 0.4–0.9% 0.4–1.0% 0.3–1.1% 0.3–1.2%
Basisdemokratische Partei Deutschland (*) 0.0% 0.2% 0.1–0.4% 0.1–0.5% 0.1–0.5% 0.0–0.6%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Alternative für Deutschland (ESN) 0 24 23–25 23–26 22–27 22–27
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands (EPP) 0 18 18–20 17–20 17–20 17–22
Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands (S&D) 0 13 13–15 12–15 12–15 11–16
Die Linke (GUE/NGL) 0 12 10–12 9–12 9–12 9–12
Bündnis 90/Die Grünen (Greens/EFA) 0 10 9–11 9–12 9–12 9–12
Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern (EPP) 0 6 5–6 4–6 4–6 4–6
Bündnis Sahra Wagenknecht (NI) 0 4 3–4 3–4 3–5 3–5
Freie Demokratische Partei (RE) 0 3 3–4 3–4 3–4 2–4
Freie Wähler (RE) 0 2 2 1–2 1–3 1–3
Partei Mensch Umwelt Tierschutz (GUE/NGL) 0 1 1–2 1–2 1–2 1–2
Volt Europa (Greens/EFA) 0 1 1 1 0–1 0–1
Die PARTEI (NI) 0 1 0–1 0–1 0–1 0–1
Basisdemokratische Partei Deutschland (*) 0 0 0 0 0 0–1

Alternative für Deutschland (ESN)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Alternative für Deutschland (ESN) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 0% 100%  
4 0% 100%  
5 0% 100%  
6 0% 100%  
7 0% 100%  
8 0% 100%  
9 0% 100%  
10 0% 100%  
11 0% 100%  
12 0% 100%  
13 0% 100%  
14 0% 100%  
15 0% 100%  
16 0% 100%  
17 0% 100%  
18 0% 100%  
19 0% 100%  
20 0% 100%  
21 0.1% 100%  
22 3% 99.9%  
23 9% 97%  
24 70% 87% Median
25 10% 18%  
26 4% 8%  
27 4% 4%  
28 0% 0%  

Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands (EPP)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands (EPP) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 0% 100%  
4 0% 100%  
5 0% 100%  
6 0% 100%  
7 0% 100%  
8 0% 100%  
9 0% 100%  
10 0% 100%  
11 0% 100%  
12 0% 100%  
13 0% 100%  
14 0% 100%  
15 0% 100%  
16 0.1% 100%  
17 6% 99.9%  
18 63% 94% Median
19 11% 32%  
20 18% 21%  
21 0.7% 2%  
22 1.4% 1.4%  
23 0% 0%  

Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands (S&D)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands (S&D) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 0% 100%  
4 0% 100%  
5 0% 100%  
6 0% 100%  
7 0% 100%  
8 0% 100%  
9 0% 100%  
10 0% 100%  
11 1.1% 100%  
12 5% 98.9%  
13 64% 94% Median
14 17% 30%  
15 13% 14%  
16 0.8% 0.8%  
17 0% 0%  

Die Linke (GUE/NGL)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Die Linke (GUE/NGL) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 0% 100%  
4 0% 100%  
5 0% 100%  
6 0% 100%  
7 0% 100%  
8 0.1% 100%  
9 8% 99.9%  
10 20% 92%  
11 15% 73%  
12 58% 58% Median
13 0.2% 0.2%  
14 0% 0%  

Bündnis 90/Die Grünen (Greens/EFA)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Bündnis 90/Die Grünen (Greens/EFA) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 0% 100%  
4 0% 100%  
5 0% 100%  
6 0% 100%  
7 0% 100%  
8 0.1% 100%  
9 11% 99.9%  
10 61% 89% Median
11 22% 28%  
12 6% 6%  
13 0.1% 0.1%  
14 0% 0%  

Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern (EPP)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern (EPP) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 0% 100%  
4 7% 100%  
5 32% 93%  
6 61% 61% Median
7 0.1% 0.1%  
8 0% 0%  

Bündnis Sahra Wagenknecht (NI)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Bündnis Sahra Wagenknecht (NI) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 13% 100%  
4 83% 86% Median
5 4% 4%  
6 0% 0%  

Freie Demokratische Partei (RE)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Freie Demokratische Partei (RE) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 1.0% 100%  
3 82% 99.0% Median
4 16% 17%  
5 0.4% 0.4%  
6 0% 0%  

Freie Wähler (RE)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Freie Wähler (RE) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 6% 100%  
2 91% 94% Median
3 3% 3%  
4 0% 0%  

Partei Mensch Umwelt Tierschutz (GUE/NGL)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Partei Mensch Umwelt Tierschutz (GUE/NGL) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 86% 100% Median
2 14% 14%  
3 0% 0%  

Volt Europa (Greens/EFA)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Volt Europa (Greens/EFA) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 3% 100% Last Result
1 96% 97% Median
2 0.3% 0.3%  
3 0% 0%  

Die PARTEI (NI)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Die PARTEI (NI) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 14% 100% Last Result
1 86% 86% Median
2 0% 0%  

Basisdemokratische Partei Deutschland (*)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Basisdemokratische Partei Deutschland (*) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 98% 100% Last Result, Median
1 2% 2%  
2 0% 0%  

Coalitions

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Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median Majority? 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Alternative für Deutschland (ESN) 0 24 0% 23–25 23–26 22–27 22–27
Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands (S&D) 0 13 0% 13–15 12–15 12–15 11–16
Bündnis Sahra Wagenknecht (NI) – Die PARTEI (NI) 0 5 0% 4–5 4–5 4–6 3–6
Freie Demokratische Partei (RE) – Freie Wähler (RE) 0 5 0% 5–6 4–6 4–6 4–7

Alternative für Deutschland (ESN)

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 0% 100%  
4 0% 100%  
5 0% 100%  
6 0% 100%  
7 0% 100%  
8 0% 100%  
9 0% 100%  
10 0% 100%  
11 0% 100%  
12 0% 100%  
13 0% 100%  
14 0% 100%  
15 0% 100%  
16 0% 100%  
17 0% 100%  
18 0% 100%  
19 0% 100%  
20 0% 100%  
21 0.1% 100%  
22 3% 99.9%  
23 9% 97%  
24 70% 87% Median
25 10% 18%  
26 4% 8%  
27 4% 4%  
28 0% 0%  

Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands (S&D)

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 0% 100%  
4 0% 100%  
5 0% 100%  
6 0% 100%  
7 0% 100%  
8 0% 100%  
9 0% 100%  
10 0% 100%  
11 1.1% 100%  
12 5% 98.9%  
13 64% 94% Median
14 17% 30%  
15 13% 14%  
16 0.8% 0.8%  
17 0% 0%  

Bündnis Sahra Wagenknecht (NI) – Die PARTEI (NI)

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 2% 100%  
4 22% 98%  
5 73% 76% Median
6 3% 3%  
7 0% 0%  

Freie Demokratische Partei (RE) – Freie Wähler (RE)

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 0% 100%  
4 6% 100%  
5 77% 94% Median
6 16% 17%  
7 1.4% 1.4%  
8 0% 0%  

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

Calculations