Opinion Poll by Allensbach for Frankfurter Allgemeine Zeitung, 6–19 January 2026
Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information
Voting Intentions
Confidence Intervals
| Party | Last Result | Poll Result | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alternative für Deutschland (ESN) | 0.0% | 25.0% | 23.3–26.7% | 22.9–27.2% | 22.5–27.7% | 21.7–28.5% |
| Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands (EPP) | 0.0% | 21.3% | 19.7–22.9% | 19.3–23.4% | 18.9–23.8% | 18.2–24.6% |
| Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands (S&D) | 0.0% | 14.9% | 13.6–16.4% | 13.3–16.8% | 12.9–17.2% | 12.3–17.9% |
| Bündnis 90/Die Grünen (Greens/EFA) | 0.0% | 11.5% | 10.3–12.8% | 10.0–13.2% | 9.7–13.6% | 9.2–14.2% |
| Die Linke (GUE/NGL) | 0.0% | 10.0% | 8.9–11.3% | 8.6–11.7% | 8.4–12.0% | 7.9–12.6% |
| Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern (EPP) | 0.0% | 5.7% | 4.8–6.7% | 4.6–7.0% | 4.4–7.2% | 4.1–7.7% |
| Freie Demokratische Partei (RE) | 0.0% | 3.5% | 2.9–4.4% | 2.7–4.6% | 2.6–4.8% | 2.3–5.2% |
| Freie Wähler (RE) | 0.0% | 2.7% | 2.1–3.4% | 2.0–3.7% | 1.9–3.8% | 1.6–4.2% |
| Partei Mensch Umwelt Tierschutz (GUE/NGL) | 0.0% | 1.7% | 1.3–2.3% | 1.1–2.5% | 1.1–2.6% | 0.9–3.0% |
| Volt Europa (Greens/EFA) | 0.0% | 1.2% | 0.9–1.8% | 0.8–1.9% | 0.7–2.1% | 0.6–2.4% |
| Die PARTEI (NI) | 0.0% | 0.8% | 0.6–1.3% | 0.5–1.5% | 0.4–1.6% | 0.3–1.9% |
| Basisdemokratische Partei Deutschland (*) | 0.0% | 0.3% | 0.2–0.6% | 0.1–0.7% | 0.1–0.8% | 0.1–1.0% |
| Bündnis Sahra Wagenknecht (NI) | 0.0% | 0.1% | 0.0–0.4% | 0.0–0.4% | 0.0–0.5% | 0.0–0.7% |
Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.
Seats
Confidence Intervals
| Party | Last Result | Median | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alternative für Deutschland (ESN) | 0 | 24 | 23–25 | 23–25 | 22–25 | 22–27 |
| Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands (EPP) | 0 | 19 | 18–22 | 18–22 | 18–22 | 18–23 |
| Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands (S&D) | 0 | 15 | 14–17 | 13–17 | 13–17 | 12–17 |
| Bündnis 90/Die Grünen (Greens/EFA) | 0 | 11 | 10–12 | 10–12 | 9–12 | 9–13 |
| Die Linke (GUE/NGL) | 0 | 9 | 9–11 | 8–11 | 8–11 | 8–11 |
| Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern (EPP) | 0 | 5 | 5–6 | 4–6 | 4–7 | 4–7 |
| Freie Demokratische Partei (RE) | 0 | 3 | 3–4 | 3–4 | 3–4 | 2–5 |
| Freie Wähler (RE) | 0 | 3 | 2–3 | 2–3 | 2–3 | 2–4 |
| Partei Mensch Umwelt Tierschutz (GUE/NGL) | 0 | 2 | 1–2 | 1–3 | 1–3 | 1–3 |
| Volt Europa (Greens/EFA) | 0 | 1 | 1–2 | 1–2 | 1–2 | 1–2 |
| Die PARTEI (NI) | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0–2 |
| Basisdemokratische Partei Deutschland (*) | 0 | 0 | 0–1 | 0–1 | 0–1 | 0–1 |
| Bündnis Sahra Wagenknecht (NI) | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0–1 |
Alternative für Deutschland (ESN)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Alternative für Deutschland (ESN) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 100% | |
| 2 | 0% | 100% | |
| 3 | 0% | 100% | |
| 4 | 0% | 100% | |
| 5 | 0% | 100% | |
| 6 | 0% | 100% | |
| 7 | 0% | 100% | |
| 8 | 0% | 100% | |
| 9 | 0% | 100% | |
| 10 | 0% | 100% | |
| 11 | 0% | 100% | |
| 12 | 0% | 100% | |
| 13 | 0% | 100% | |
| 14 | 0% | 100% | |
| 15 | 0% | 100% | |
| 16 | 0% | 100% | |
| 17 | 0% | 100% | |
| 18 | 0% | 100% | |
| 19 | 0% | 100% | |
| 20 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 21 | 0.3% | 99.9% | |
| 22 | 3% | 99.5% | |
| 23 | 29% | 96% | |
| 24 | 44% | 67% | Median |
| 25 | 21% | 23% | |
| 26 | 1.1% | 2% | |
| 27 | 0.4% | 0.5% | |
| 28 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 29 | 0% | 0% |
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands (EPP)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands (EPP) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 100% | |
| 2 | 0% | 100% | |
| 3 | 0% | 100% | |
| 4 | 0% | 100% | |
| 5 | 0% | 100% | |
| 6 | 0% | 100% | |
| 7 | 0% | 100% | |
| 8 | 0% | 100% | |
| 9 | 0% | 100% | |
| 10 | 0% | 100% | |
| 11 | 0% | 100% | |
| 12 | 0% | 100% | |
| 13 | 0% | 100% | |
| 14 | 0% | 100% | |
| 15 | 0% | 100% | |
| 16 | 0% | 100% | |
| 17 | 0.2% | 100% | |
| 18 | 12% | 99.8% | |
| 19 | 68% | 88% | Median |
| 20 | 5% | 20% | |
| 21 | 5% | 15% | |
| 22 | 9% | 10% | |
| 23 | 1.4% | 2% | |
| 24 | 0.2% | 0.2% | |
| 25 | 0% | 0% |
Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands (S&D)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands (S&D) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 100% | |
| 2 | 0% | 100% | |
| 3 | 0% | 100% | |
| 4 | 0% | 100% | |
| 5 | 0% | 100% | |
| 6 | 0% | 100% | |
| 7 | 0% | 100% | |
| 8 | 0% | 100% | |
| 9 | 0% | 100% | |
| 10 | 0% | 100% | |
| 11 | 0.2% | 100% | |
| 12 | 1.0% | 99.8% | |
| 13 | 7% | 98.8% | |
| 14 | 14% | 92% | |
| 15 | 42% | 78% | Median |
| 16 | 1.1% | 36% | |
| 17 | 35% | 35% | |
| 18 | 0% | 0% |
Bündnis 90/Die Grünen (Greens/EFA)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Bündnis 90/Die Grünen (Greens/EFA) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 100% | |
| 2 | 0% | 100% | |
| 3 | 0% | 100% | |
| 4 | 0% | 100% | |
| 5 | 0% | 100% | |
| 6 | 0% | 100% | |
| 7 | 0% | 100% | |
| 8 | 0% | 100% | |
| 9 | 4% | 100% | |
| 10 | 14% | 96% | |
| 11 | 65% | 82% | Median |
| 12 | 16% | 17% | |
| 13 | 0.7% | 0.9% | |
| 14 | 0.3% | 0.3% | |
| 15 | 0% | 0% |
Die Linke (GUE/NGL)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Die Linke (GUE/NGL) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 100% | |
| 2 | 0% | 100% | |
| 3 | 0% | 100% | |
| 4 | 0% | 100% | |
| 5 | 0% | 100% | |
| 6 | 0% | 100% | |
| 7 | 0.2% | 100% | |
| 8 | 5% | 99.8% | |
| 9 | 53% | 95% | Median |
| 10 | 18% | 42% | |
| 11 | 24% | 24% | |
| 12 | 0.5% | 0.5% | |
| 13 | 0% | 0% |
Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern (EPP)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern (EPP) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 100% | |
| 2 | 0% | 100% | |
| 3 | 0% | 100% | |
| 4 | 6% | 100% | |
| 5 | 67% | 94% | Median |
| 6 | 23% | 27% | |
| 7 | 4% | 5% | |
| 8 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 9 | 0% | 0% |
Freie Demokratische Partei (RE)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Freie Demokratische Partei (RE) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 100% | |
| 2 | 1.0% | 100% | |
| 3 | 70% | 99.0% | Median |
| 4 | 28% | 29% | |
| 5 | 0.9% | 1.0% | |
| 6 | 0% | 0% |
Freie Wähler (RE)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Freie Wähler (RE) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 2 | 44% | 99.9% | |
| 3 | 54% | 56% | Median |
| 4 | 2% | 2% | |
| 5 | 0% | 0% |
Partei Mensch Umwelt Tierschutz (GUE/NGL)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Partei Mensch Umwelt Tierschutz (GUE/NGL) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 14% | 100% | |
| 2 | 81% | 86% | Median |
| 3 | 5% | 5% | |
| 4 | 0% | 0% |
Volt Europa (Greens/EFA)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Volt Europa (Greens/EFA) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 58% | 100% | Median |
| 2 | 42% | 42% | |
| 3 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 4 | 0% | 0% |
Die PARTEI (NI)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Die PARTEI (NI) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 1.2% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 97% | 98.8% | Median |
| 2 | 1.4% | 1.4% | |
| 3 | 0% | 0% |
Basisdemokratische Partei Deutschland (*)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Basisdemokratische Partei Deutschland (*) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 86% | 100% | Last Result, Median |
| 1 | 14% | 14% | |
| 2 | 0% | 0% |
Bündnis Sahra Wagenknecht (NI)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Bündnis Sahra Wagenknecht (NI) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 98.8% | 100% | Last Result, Median |
| 1 | 1.2% | 1.2% | |
| 2 | 0% | 0% |
Coalitions
Confidence Intervals
| Coalition | Last Result | Median | Majority? | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alternative für Deutschland (ESN) | 0 | 24 | 0% | 23–25 | 23–25 | 22–25 | 22–27 |
| Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands (S&D) | 0 | 15 | 0% | 14–17 | 13–17 | 13–17 | 12–17 |
| Freie Demokratische Partei (RE) – Freie Wähler (RE) | 0 | 6 | 0% | 5–6 | 5–7 | 5–7 | 5–8 |
| Die PARTEI (NI) – Bündnis Sahra Wagenknecht (NI) | 0 | 1 | 0% | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0–2 |
Alternative für Deutschland (ESN)
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 100% | |
| 2 | 0% | 100% | |
| 3 | 0% | 100% | |
| 4 | 0% | 100% | |
| 5 | 0% | 100% | |
| 6 | 0% | 100% | |
| 7 | 0% | 100% | |
| 8 | 0% | 100% | |
| 9 | 0% | 100% | |
| 10 | 0% | 100% | |
| 11 | 0% | 100% | |
| 12 | 0% | 100% | |
| 13 | 0% | 100% | |
| 14 | 0% | 100% | |
| 15 | 0% | 100% | |
| 16 | 0% | 100% | |
| 17 | 0% | 100% | |
| 18 | 0% | 100% | |
| 19 | 0% | 100% | |
| 20 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 21 | 0.3% | 99.9% | |
| 22 | 3% | 99.5% | |
| 23 | 29% | 96% | |
| 24 | 44% | 67% | Median |
| 25 | 21% | 23% | |
| 26 | 1.1% | 2% | |
| 27 | 0.4% | 0.5% | |
| 28 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 29 | 0% | 0% |
Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands (S&D)
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 100% | |
| 2 | 0% | 100% | |
| 3 | 0% | 100% | |
| 4 | 0% | 100% | |
| 5 | 0% | 100% | |
| 6 | 0% | 100% | |
| 7 | 0% | 100% | |
| 8 | 0% | 100% | |
| 9 | 0% | 100% | |
| 10 | 0% | 100% | |
| 11 | 0.2% | 100% | |
| 12 | 1.0% | 99.8% | |
| 13 | 7% | 98.8% | |
| 14 | 14% | 92% | |
| 15 | 42% | 78% | Median |
| 16 | 1.1% | 36% | |
| 17 | 35% | 35% | |
| 18 | 0% | 0% |
Freie Demokratische Partei (RE) – Freie Wähler (RE)
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 100% | |
| 2 | 0% | 100% | |
| 3 | 0% | 100% | |
| 4 | 0.5% | 100% | |
| 5 | 20% | 99.5% | |
| 6 | 72% | 79% | Median |
| 7 | 6% | 7% | |
| 8 | 1.3% | 1.4% | |
| 9 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 10 | 0% | 0% |
Die PARTEI (NI) – Bündnis Sahra Wagenknecht (NI)
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 1.2% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 96% | 98.8% | Median |
| 2 | 2% | 2% | |
| 3 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 4 | 0% | 0% |
Technical Information
Opinion Poll
- Polling firm: Allensbach
- Commissioner(s): Frankfurter Allgemeine Zeitung
- Fieldwork period: 6–19 January 2026
Calculations
- Sample size: 1077
- Simulations done: 2,097,152
- Error estimate: 2.09%