Opinion Poll by Forsa for RTL n-tv, 20–26 January 2026
Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information
Voting Intentions
Confidence Intervals
| Party | Last Result | Poll Result | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alternative für Deutschland (ESN) | 0.0% | 24.0% | 22.7–25.3% | 22.4–25.7% | 22.1–26.0% | 21.5–26.7% |
| Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands (EPP) | 0.0% | 20.5% | 19.4–21.8% | 19.0–22.2% | 18.7–22.5% | 18.2–23.1% |
| Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands (S&D) | 0.0% | 14.0% | 13.0–15.1% | 12.7–15.4% | 12.5–15.7% | 12.0–16.2% |
| Bündnis 90/Die Grünen (Greens/EFA) | 0.0% | 12.0% | 11.1–13.0% | 10.8–13.3% | 10.6–13.6% | 10.1–14.1% |
| Die Linke (GUE/NGL) | 0.0% | 11.0% | 10.1–12.0% | 9.8–12.3% | 9.6–12.5% | 9.2–13.0% |
| Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern (EPP) | 0.0% | 5.5% | 4.9–6.2% | 4.7–6.5% | 4.5–6.7% | 4.2–7.0% |
| Bündnis Sahra Wagenknecht (NI) | 0.0% | 3.0% | 2.5–3.6% | 2.4–3.7% | 2.3–3.9% | 2.1–4.2% |
| Freie Demokratische Partei (RE) | 0.0% | 3.0% | 2.5–3.6% | 2.4–3.7% | 2.3–3.9% | 2.1–4.2% |
| Freie Wähler (RE) | 0.0% | 2.4% | 2.0–2.9% | 1.9–3.1% | 1.8–3.2% | 1.6–3.5% |
| Partei Mensch Umwelt Tierschutz (GUE/NGL) | 0.0% | 1.5% | 1.2–2.0% | 1.1–2.1% | 1.0–2.2% | 0.9–2.4% |
| Volt Europa (Greens/EFA) | 0.0% | 1.1% | 0.9–1.5% | 0.8–1.6% | 0.7–1.7% | 0.6–1.9% |
| Die PARTEI (NI) | 0.0% | 0.7% | 0.5–1.1% | 0.5–1.2% | 0.4–1.2% | 0.3–1.4% |
| Basisdemokratische Partei Deutschland (*) | 0.0% | 0.3% | 0.2–0.5% | 0.1–0.6% | 0.1–0.7% | 0.1–0.8% |
Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.
Seats
Confidence Intervals
| Party | Last Result | Median | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alternative für Deutschland (ESN) | 0 | 23 | 21–25 | 21–25 | 21–25 | 20–25 |
| Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands (EPP) | 0 | 20 | 19–21 | 18–21 | 18–21 | 17–22 |
| Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands (S&D) | 0 | 13 | 12–15 | 12–15 | 12–15 | 11–16 |
| Bündnis 90/Die Grünen (Greens/EFA) | 0 | 11 | 10–12 | 10–13 | 10–13 | 9–14 |
| Die Linke (GUE/NGL) | 0 | 11 | 9–11 | 9–12 | 9–12 | 9–12 |
| Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern (EPP) | 0 | 5 | 5–6 | 5–6 | 4–6 | 4–7 |
| Bündnis Sahra Wagenknecht (NI) | 0 | 3 | 2–3 | 2–3 | 2–4 | 2–4 |
| Freie Demokratische Partei (RE) | 0 | 3 | 3–4 | 2–4 | 2–4 | 2–4 |
| Freie Wähler (RE) | 0 | 2 | 2–3 | 2–3 | 2–3 | 2–4 |
| Partei Mensch Umwelt Tierschutz (GUE/NGL) | 0 | 2 | 1–2 | 1–2 | 1–2 | 1–2 |
| Volt Europa (Greens/EFA) | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1–2 | 1–2 |
| Die PARTEI (NI) | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0–1 | 0–1 | 0–1 |
| Basisdemokratische Partei Deutschland (*) | 0 | 0 | 0–1 | 0–1 | 0–1 | 0–1 |
Alternative für Deutschland (ESN)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Alternative für Deutschland (ESN) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 100% | |
| 2 | 0% | 100% | |
| 3 | 0% | 100% | |
| 4 | 0% | 100% | |
| 5 | 0% | 100% | |
| 6 | 0% | 100% | |
| 7 | 0% | 100% | |
| 8 | 0% | 100% | |
| 9 | 0% | 100% | |
| 10 | 0% | 100% | |
| 11 | 0% | 100% | |
| 12 | 0% | 100% | |
| 13 | 0% | 100% | |
| 14 | 0% | 100% | |
| 15 | 0% | 100% | |
| 16 | 0% | 100% | |
| 17 | 0% | 100% | |
| 18 | 0% | 100% | |
| 19 | 0% | 100% | |
| 20 | 0.9% | 100% | |
| 21 | 12% | 99.1% | |
| 22 | 31% | 87% | |
| 23 | 13% | 56% | Median |
| 24 | 32% | 44% | |
| 25 | 11% | 12% | |
| 26 | 0.5% | 0.5% | |
| 27 | 0% | 0% |
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands (EPP)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands (EPP) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 100% | |
| 2 | 0% | 100% | |
| 3 | 0% | 100% | |
| 4 | 0% | 100% | |
| 5 | 0% | 100% | |
| 6 | 0% | 100% | |
| 7 | 0% | 100% | |
| 8 | 0% | 100% | |
| 9 | 0% | 100% | |
| 10 | 0% | 100% | |
| 11 | 0% | 100% | |
| 12 | 0% | 100% | |
| 13 | 0% | 100% | |
| 14 | 0% | 100% | |
| 15 | 0% | 100% | |
| 16 | 0% | 100% | |
| 17 | 0.5% | 100% | |
| 18 | 9% | 99.5% | |
| 19 | 31% | 91% | |
| 20 | 43% | 59% | Median |
| 21 | 14% | 16% | |
| 22 | 2% | 2% | |
| 23 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 24 | 0% | 0% |
Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands (S&D)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands (S&D) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 100% | |
| 2 | 0% | 100% | |
| 3 | 0% | 100% | |
| 4 | 0% | 100% | |
| 5 | 0% | 100% | |
| 6 | 0% | 100% | |
| 7 | 0% | 100% | |
| 8 | 0% | 100% | |
| 9 | 0% | 100% | |
| 10 | 0% | 100% | |
| 11 | 2% | 100% | |
| 12 | 12% | 98% | |
| 13 | 43% | 86% | Median |
| 14 | 29% | 43% | |
| 15 | 14% | 14% | |
| 16 | 0.5% | 0.6% | |
| 17 | 0% | 0% |
Bündnis 90/Die Grünen (Greens/EFA)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Bündnis 90/Die Grünen (Greens/EFA) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 100% | |
| 2 | 0% | 100% | |
| 3 | 0% | 100% | |
| 4 | 0% | 100% | |
| 5 | 0% | 100% | |
| 6 | 0% | 100% | |
| 7 | 0% | 100% | |
| 8 | 0% | 100% | |
| 9 | 0.8% | 100% | |
| 10 | 11% | 99.2% | |
| 11 | 52% | 88% | Median |
| 12 | 29% | 36% | |
| 13 | 6% | 7% | |
| 14 | 1.3% | 1.3% | |
| 15 | 0% | 0% |
Die Linke (GUE/NGL)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Die Linke (GUE/NGL) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 100% | |
| 2 | 0% | 100% | |
| 3 | 0% | 100% | |
| 4 | 0% | 100% | |
| 5 | 0% | 100% | |
| 6 | 0% | 100% | |
| 7 | 0% | 100% | |
| 8 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 9 | 20% | 99.9% | |
| 10 | 27% | 80% | |
| 11 | 47% | 53% | Median |
| 12 | 5% | 5% | |
| 13 | 0.3% | 0.3% | |
| 14 | 0% | 0% |
Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern (EPP)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern (EPP) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 100% | |
| 2 | 0% | 100% | |
| 3 | 0% | 100% | |
| 4 | 4% | 100% | |
| 5 | 55% | 96% | Median |
| 6 | 41% | 42% | |
| 7 | 1.1% | 1.1% | |
| 8 | 0% | 0% |
Bündnis Sahra Wagenknecht (NI)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Bündnis Sahra Wagenknecht (NI) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 100% | |
| 2 | 34% | 100% | |
| 3 | 61% | 66% | Median |
| 4 | 4% | 4% | |
| 5 | 0% | 0% |
Freie Demokratische Partei (RE)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Freie Demokratische Partei (RE) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 100% | |
| 2 | 7% | 100% | |
| 3 | 70% | 93% | Median |
| 4 | 23% | 23% | |
| 5 | 0% | 0% |
Freie Wähler (RE)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Freie Wähler (RE) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0.3% | 100% | |
| 2 | 80% | 99.7% | Median |
| 3 | 18% | 20% | |
| 4 | 1.3% | 1.3% | |
| 5 | 0% | 0% |
Partei Mensch Umwelt Tierschutz (GUE/NGL)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Partei Mensch Umwelt Tierschutz (GUE/NGL) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 35% | 100% | |
| 2 | 65% | 65% | Median |
| 3 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 4 | 0% | 0% |
Volt Europa (Greens/EFA)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Volt Europa (Greens/EFA) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0.2% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 96% | 99.8% | Median |
| 2 | 4% | 4% | |
| 3 | 0% | 0% |
Die PARTEI (NI)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Die PARTEI (NI) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 93% | 93% | Median |
| 2 | 0.2% | 0.2% | |
| 3 | 0% | 0% |
Basisdemokratische Partei Deutschland (*)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Basisdemokratische Partei Deutschland (*) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 86% | 100% | Last Result, Median |
| 1 | 14% | 14% | |
| 2 | 0% | 0% |
Coalitions
Confidence Intervals
| Coalition | Last Result | Median | Majority? | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alternative für Deutschland (ESN) | 0 | 23 | 0% | 21–25 | 21–25 | 21–25 | 20–25 |
| Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands (S&D) | 0 | 13 | 0% | 12–15 | 12–15 | 12–15 | 11–16 |
| Freie Demokratische Partei (RE) – Freie Wähler (RE) | 0 | 5 | 0% | 5–6 | 4–6 | 4–6 | 4–7 |
| Bündnis Sahra Wagenknecht (NI) – Die PARTEI (NI) | 0 | 4 | 0% | 3–4 | 3–4 | 3–5 | 2–5 |
Alternative für Deutschland (ESN)
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 100% | |
| 2 | 0% | 100% | |
| 3 | 0% | 100% | |
| 4 | 0% | 100% | |
| 5 | 0% | 100% | |
| 6 | 0% | 100% | |
| 7 | 0% | 100% | |
| 8 | 0% | 100% | |
| 9 | 0% | 100% | |
| 10 | 0% | 100% | |
| 11 | 0% | 100% | |
| 12 | 0% | 100% | |
| 13 | 0% | 100% | |
| 14 | 0% | 100% | |
| 15 | 0% | 100% | |
| 16 | 0% | 100% | |
| 17 | 0% | 100% | |
| 18 | 0% | 100% | |
| 19 | 0% | 100% | |
| 20 | 0.9% | 100% | |
| 21 | 12% | 99.1% | |
| 22 | 31% | 87% | |
| 23 | 13% | 56% | Median |
| 24 | 32% | 44% | |
| 25 | 11% | 12% | |
| 26 | 0.5% | 0.5% | |
| 27 | 0% | 0% |
Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands (S&D)
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 100% | |
| 2 | 0% | 100% | |
| 3 | 0% | 100% | |
| 4 | 0% | 100% | |
| 5 | 0% | 100% | |
| 6 | 0% | 100% | |
| 7 | 0% | 100% | |
| 8 | 0% | 100% | |
| 9 | 0% | 100% | |
| 10 | 0% | 100% | |
| 11 | 2% | 100% | |
| 12 | 12% | 98% | |
| 13 | 43% | 86% | Median |
| 14 | 29% | 43% | |
| 15 | 14% | 14% | |
| 16 | 0.5% | 0.6% | |
| 17 | 0% | 0% |
Freie Demokratische Partei (RE) – Freie Wähler (RE)
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 100% | |
| 2 | 0% | 100% | |
| 3 | 0% | 100% | |
| 4 | 5% | 100% | |
| 5 | 55% | 95% | Median |
| 6 | 38% | 40% | |
| 7 | 2% | 2% | |
| 8 | 0% | 0% |
Bündnis Sahra Wagenknecht (NI) – Die PARTEI (NI)
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 100% | |
| 2 | 1.3% | 100% | |
| 3 | 39% | 98.7% | |
| 4 | 56% | 60% | Median |
| 5 | 4% | 4% | |
| 6 | 0% | 0% |
Technical Information
Opinion Poll
- Polling firm: Forsa
- Commissioner(s): RTL n-tv
- Fieldwork period: 20–26 January 2026
Calculations
- Sample size: 1801
- Simulations done: 2,097,152
- Error estimate: 2.10%