Opinion Poll by INSA and YouGov, 23–26 January 2026

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Alternative für Deutschland (ESN) 0.0% 26.0% 24.3–27.8% 23.8–28.4% 23.4–28.8% 22.6–29.7%
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands (EPP) 0.0% 19.7% 18.2–21.4% 17.7–21.9% 17.3–22.3% 16.6–23.1%
Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands (S&D) 0.0% 14.5% 13.2–16.0% 12.8–16.4% 12.5–16.8% 11.8–17.6%
Bündnis 90/Die Grünen (Greens/EFA) 0.0% 11.5% 10.3–12.9% 10.0–13.3% 9.7–13.6% 9.1–14.3%
Die Linke (GUE/NGL) 0.0% 10.5% 9.3–11.8% 9.0–12.2% 8.7–12.6% 8.2–13.2%
Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern (EPP) 0.0% 5.3% 4.5–6.3% 4.3–6.6% 4.1–6.9% 3.7–7.4%
Bündnis Sahra Wagenknecht (NI) 0.0% 4.5% 3.8–5.5% 3.6–5.7% 3.4–6.0% 3.0–6.5%
Freie Demokratische Partei (RE) 0.0% 4.0% 3.3–4.9% 3.1–5.2% 2.9–5.4% 2.7–5.9%
Freie Wähler (RE) 0.0% 1.4% 1.0–2.0% 0.9–2.2% 0.8–2.3% 0.7–2.7%
Partei Mensch Umwelt Tierschutz (GUE/NGL) 0.0% 0.8% 0.5–1.3% 0.5–1.4% 0.4–1.6% 0.3–1.9%
Volt Europa (Greens/EFA) 0.0% 0.6% 0.4–1.1% 0.3–1.2% 0.3–1.3% 0.2–1.6%
Die PARTEI (NI) 0.0% 0.4% 0.2–0.8% 0.2–0.9% 0.2–1.0% 0.1–1.3%
Basisdemokratische Partei Deutschland (*) 0.0% 0.2% 0.1–0.5% 0.1–0.6% 0.1–0.7% 0.0–0.9%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Alternative für Deutschland (ESN) 0 24 23–27 22–28 22–28 22–28
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands (EPP) 0 18 17–20 16–20 16–21 16–21
Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands (S&D) 0 15 12–15 12–15 11–16 11–16
Bündnis 90/Die Grünen (Greens/EFA) 0 11 10–12 9–13 9–13 9–13
Die Linke (GUE/NGL) 0 10 8–11 8–12 8–12 7–12
Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern (EPP) 0 5 4–6 4–7 4–7 4–7
Bündnis Sahra Wagenknecht (NI) 0 5 4–5 3–6 3–6 3–6
Freie Demokratische Partei (RE) 0 4 3–5 3–5 3–5 3–5
Freie Wähler (RE) 0 1 1–2 1–2 1–2 1–3
Partei Mensch Umwelt Tierschutz (GUE/NGL) 0 1 1 1 0–1 0–2
Volt Europa (Greens/EFA) 0 1 0–1 0–1 0–1 0–2
Die PARTEI (NI) 0 0 0–1 0–1 0–1 0–1
Basisdemokratische Partei Deutschland (*) 0 0 0–1 0–1 0–1 0–1

Alternative für Deutschland (ESN)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Alternative für Deutschland (ESN) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 0% 100%  
4 0% 100%  
5 0% 100%  
6 0% 100%  
7 0% 100%  
8 0% 100%  
9 0% 100%  
10 0% 100%  
11 0% 100%  
12 0% 100%  
13 0% 100%  
14 0% 100%  
15 0% 100%  
16 0% 100%  
17 0% 100%  
18 0% 100%  
19 0% 100%  
20 0.1% 100%  
21 0.3% 99.9%  
22 7% 99.6%  
23 14% 92%  
24 32% 78% Median
25 17% 46%  
26 13% 29%  
27 10% 16%  
28 6% 6%  
29 0% 0.1%  
30 0% 0%  

Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands (EPP)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands (EPP) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 0% 100%  
4 0% 100%  
5 0% 100%  
6 0% 100%  
7 0% 100%  
8 0% 100%  
9 0% 100%  
10 0% 100%  
11 0% 100%  
12 0% 100%  
13 0% 100%  
14 0% 100%  
15 0.2% 100%  
16 9% 99.8%  
17 12% 91%  
18 39% 79% Median
19 13% 40%  
20 22% 27%  
21 4% 4%  
22 0.2% 0.2%  
23 0% 0%  

Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands (S&D)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands (S&D) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 0% 100%  
4 0% 100%  
5 0% 100%  
6 0% 100%  
7 0% 100%  
8 0% 100%  
9 0% 100%  
10 0% 100%  
11 4% 100%  
12 9% 96%  
13 17% 87%  
14 13% 69%  
15 52% 56% Median
16 4% 5%  
17 0.3% 0.3%  
18 0% 0%  

Bündnis 90/Die Grünen (Greens/EFA)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Bündnis 90/Die Grünen (Greens/EFA) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 0% 100%  
4 0% 100%  
5 0% 100%  
6 0% 100%  
7 0% 100%  
8 0.3% 100%  
9 6% 99.7%  
10 26% 94%  
11 47% 68% Median
12 15% 20%  
13 5% 5%  
14 0.3% 0.3%  
15 0% 0%  

Die Linke (GUE/NGL)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Die Linke (GUE/NGL) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 0% 100%  
4 0% 100%  
5 0% 100%  
6 0% 100%  
7 2% 100%  
8 17% 98%  
9 16% 82%  
10 39% 66% Median
11 21% 27%  
12 5% 5%  
13 0.3% 0.4%  
14 0% 0%  

Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern (EPP)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern (EPP) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 0.3% 100%  
4 23% 99.7%  
5 49% 77% Median
6 21% 28%  
7 7% 7%  
8 0.2% 0.2%  
9 0% 0%  

Bündnis Sahra Wagenknecht (NI)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Bündnis Sahra Wagenknecht (NI) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 7% 100%  
4 37% 93%  
5 47% 55% Median
6 8% 8%  
7 0.1% 0.1%  
8 0% 0%  

Freie Demokratische Partei (RE)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Freie Demokratische Partei (RE) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0.5% 100%  
3 16% 99.5%  
4 68% 84% Median
5 15% 16%  
6 0.4% 0.4%  
7 0% 0%  

Freie Wähler (RE)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Freie Wähler (RE) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 71% 100% Median
2 28% 29%  
3 0.6% 0.6%  
4 0% 0%  

Partei Mensch Umwelt Tierschutz (GUE/NGL)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Partei Mensch Umwelt Tierschutz (GUE/NGL) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 4% 100% Last Result
1 94% 96% Median
2 2% 2%  
3 0% 0%  

Volt Europa (Greens/EFA)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Volt Europa (Greens/EFA) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 18% 100% Last Result
1 81% 82% Median
2 0.8% 0.8%  
3 0% 0%  

Die PARTEI (NI)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Die PARTEI (NI) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 59% 100% Last Result, Median
1 41% 41%  
2 0.1% 0.1%  
3 0% 0%  

Basisdemokratische Partei Deutschland (*)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Basisdemokratische Partei Deutschland (*) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 89% 100% Last Result, Median
1 11% 11%  
2 0% 0%  

Coalitions

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Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median Majority? 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Alternative für Deutschland (ESN) 0 24 0% 23–27 22–28 22–28 22–28
Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands (S&D) 0 15 0% 12–15 12–15 11–16 11–16
Freie Demokratische Partei (RE) – Freie Wähler (RE) 0 5 0% 4–6 4–6 4–7 4–7
Bündnis Sahra Wagenknecht (NI) – Die PARTEI (NI) 0 5 0% 4–6 4–7 3–7 3–7

Alternative für Deutschland (ESN)

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 0% 100%  
4 0% 100%  
5 0% 100%  
6 0% 100%  
7 0% 100%  
8 0% 100%  
9 0% 100%  
10 0% 100%  
11 0% 100%  
12 0% 100%  
13 0% 100%  
14 0% 100%  
15 0% 100%  
16 0% 100%  
17 0% 100%  
18 0% 100%  
19 0% 100%  
20 0.1% 100%  
21 0.3% 99.9%  
22 7% 99.6%  
23 14% 92%  
24 32% 78% Median
25 17% 46%  
26 13% 29%  
27 10% 16%  
28 6% 6%  
29 0% 0.1%  
30 0% 0%  

Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands (S&D)

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 0% 100%  
4 0% 100%  
5 0% 100%  
6 0% 100%  
7 0% 100%  
8 0% 100%  
9 0% 100%  
10 0% 100%  
11 4% 100%  
12 9% 96%  
13 17% 87%  
14 13% 69%  
15 52% 56% Median
16 4% 5%  
17 0.3% 0.3%  
18 0% 0%  

Freie Demokratische Partei (RE) – Freie Wähler (RE)

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 0.4% 100%  
4 10% 99.6%  
5 53% 89% Median
6 34% 37%  
7 3% 3%  
8 0.2% 0.2%  
9 0% 0%  

Bündnis Sahra Wagenknecht (NI) – Die PARTEI (NI)

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 4% 100%  
4 26% 96%  
5 43% 70% Median
6 20% 26%  
7 6% 6%  
8 0.1% 0.1%  
9 0% 0%  

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

Calculations