Opinion Poll by Forschungsgruppe Wahlen for ZDF, 3–5 February 2026
Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information
Voting Intentions
Confidence Intervals
| Party | Last Result | Poll Result | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alternative für Deutschland (ESN) | 0.0% | 24.0% | 22.4–25.7% | 21.9–26.2% | 21.6–26.6% | 20.8–27.4% |
| Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands (EPP) | 0.0% | 20.6% | 19.1–22.2% | 18.6–22.6% | 18.3–23.0% | 17.6–23.8% |
| Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands (S&D) | 0.0% | 15.0% | 13.7–16.4% | 13.3–16.8% | 13.0–17.2% | 12.4–17.9% |
| Bündnis 90/Die Grünen (Greens/EFA) | 0.0% | 13.0% | 11.8–14.4% | 11.4–14.8% | 11.1–15.1% | 10.6–15.8% |
| Die Linke (GUE/NGL) | 0.0% | 10.0% | 8.9–11.3% | 8.6–11.6% | 8.4–11.9% | 7.9–12.5% |
| Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern (EPP) | 0.0% | 5.5% | 4.7–6.5% | 4.5–6.8% | 4.3–7.0% | 3.9–7.5% |
| Bündnis Sahra Wagenknecht (NI) | 0.0% | 4.3% | 3.6–5.2% | 3.4–5.5% | 3.3–5.7% | 3.0–6.2% |
| Freie Demokratische Partei (RE) | 0.0% | 3.7% | 3.1–4.5% | 2.9–4.8% | 2.7–5.0% | 2.5–5.4% |
| Freie Wähler (RE) | 0.0% | 1.4% | 1.0–1.9% | 0.9–2.1% | 0.8–2.2% | 0.7–2.5% |
| Partei Mensch Umwelt Tierschutz (GUE/NGL) | 0.0% | 0.8% | 0.5–1.3% | 0.5–1.4% | 0.4–1.5% | 0.3–1.8% |
| Volt Europa (Greens/EFA) | 0.0% | 0.6% | 0.4–1.1% | 0.4–1.2% | 0.3–1.3% | 0.2–1.5% |
| Die PARTEI (NI) | 0.0% | 0.5% | 0.3–0.8% | 0.2–0.9% | 0.2–1.1% | 0.1–1.3% |
| Basisdemokratische Partei Deutschland (*) | 0.0% | 0.2% | 0.1–0.5% | 0.1–0.6% | 0.0–0.7% | 0.0–0.8% |
Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.
Seats
Confidence Intervals
| Party | Last Result | Median | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alternative für Deutschland (ESN) | 0 | 23 | 21–24 | 21–25 | 20–25 | 20–26 |
| Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands (EPP) | 0 | 20 | 18–22 | 17–22 | 17–22 | 17–22 |
| Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands (S&D) | 0 | 14 | 13–15 | 12–16 | 12–16 | 11–18 |
| Bündnis 90/Die Grünen (Greens/EFA) | 0 | 12 | 10–14 | 10–14 | 10–14 | 10–15 |
| Die Linke (GUE/NGL) | 0 | 10 | 8–11 | 8–12 | 8–13 | 7–13 |
| Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern (EPP) | 0 | 5 | 4–7 | 4–7 | 4–7 | 4–8 |
| Bündnis Sahra Wagenknecht (NI) | 0 | 4 | 3–5 | 3–5 | 3–6 | 2–6 |
| Freie Demokratische Partei (RE) | 0 | 4 | 3–5 | 3–5 | 3–5 | 3–5 |
| Freie Wähler (RE) | 0 | 1 | 1–2 | 1–2 | 1–2 | 1–2 |
| Partei Mensch Umwelt Tierschutz (GUE/NGL) | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0–2 | 0–2 | 0–2 |
| Volt Europa (Greens/EFA) | 0 | 1 | 0–1 | 0–1 | 0–1 | 0–1 |
| Die PARTEI (NI) | 0 | 1 | 0–1 | 0–1 | 0–1 | 0–1 |
| Basisdemokratische Partei Deutschland (*) | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0–1 | 0–1 | 0–1 |
Alternative für Deutschland (ESN)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Alternative für Deutschland (ESN) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 100% | |
| 2 | 0% | 100% | |
| 3 | 0% | 100% | |
| 4 | 0% | 100% | |
| 5 | 0% | 100% | |
| 6 | 0% | 100% | |
| 7 | 0% | 100% | |
| 8 | 0% | 100% | |
| 9 | 0% | 100% | |
| 10 | 0% | 100% | |
| 11 | 0% | 100% | |
| 12 | 0% | 100% | |
| 13 | 0% | 100% | |
| 14 | 0% | 100% | |
| 15 | 0% | 100% | |
| 16 | 0% | 100% | |
| 17 | 0% | 100% | |
| 18 | 0% | 100% | |
| 19 | 0.3% | 100% | |
| 20 | 3% | 99.7% | |
| 21 | 13% | 97% | |
| 22 | 34% | 84% | |
| 23 | 23% | 50% | Median |
| 24 | 18% | 28% | |
| 25 | 8% | 9% | |
| 26 | 0.8% | 1.1% | |
| 27 | 0.3% | 0.3% | |
| 28 | 0% | 0% |
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands (EPP)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands (EPP) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 100% | |
| 2 | 0% | 100% | |
| 3 | 0% | 100% | |
| 4 | 0% | 100% | |
| 5 | 0% | 100% | |
| 6 | 0% | 100% | |
| 7 | 0% | 100% | |
| 8 | 0% | 100% | |
| 9 | 0% | 100% | |
| 10 | 0% | 100% | |
| 11 | 0% | 100% | |
| 12 | 0% | 100% | |
| 13 | 0% | 100% | |
| 14 | 0% | 100% | |
| 15 | 0% | 100% | |
| 16 | 0.4% | 100% | |
| 17 | 9% | 99.6% | |
| 18 | 13% | 91% | |
| 19 | 25% | 78% | |
| 20 | 19% | 53% | Median |
| 21 | 22% | 34% | |
| 22 | 11% | 12% | |
| 23 | 0.2% | 0.3% | |
| 24 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 25 | 0% | 0% |
Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands (S&D)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands (S&D) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 100% | |
| 2 | 0% | 100% | |
| 3 | 0% | 100% | |
| 4 | 0% | 100% | |
| 5 | 0% | 100% | |
| 6 | 0% | 100% | |
| 7 | 0% | 100% | |
| 8 | 0% | 100% | |
| 9 | 0% | 100% | |
| 10 | 0% | 100% | |
| 11 | 1.1% | 100% | |
| 12 | 7% | 98.9% | |
| 13 | 19% | 91% | |
| 14 | 25% | 72% | Median |
| 15 | 41% | 47% | |
| 16 | 4% | 6% | |
| 17 | 1.4% | 2% | |
| 18 | 0.7% | 0.8% | |
| 19 | 0% | 0% |
Bündnis 90/Die Grünen (Greens/EFA)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Bündnis 90/Die Grünen (Greens/EFA) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 100% | |
| 2 | 0% | 100% | |
| 3 | 0% | 100% | |
| 4 | 0% | 100% | |
| 5 | 0% | 100% | |
| 6 | 0% | 100% | |
| 7 | 0% | 100% | |
| 8 | 0% | 100% | |
| 9 | 0.3% | 100% | |
| 10 | 15% | 99.6% | |
| 11 | 31% | 84% | |
| 12 | 18% | 54% | Median |
| 13 | 19% | 36% | |
| 14 | 17% | 17% | |
| 15 | 0.6% | 0.7% | |
| 16 | 0% | 0% |
Die Linke (GUE/NGL)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Die Linke (GUE/NGL) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 100% | |
| 2 | 0% | 100% | |
| 3 | 0% | 100% | |
| 4 | 0% | 100% | |
| 5 | 0% | 100% | |
| 6 | 0% | 100% | |
| 7 | 2% | 100% | |
| 8 | 18% | 98% | |
| 9 | 26% | 80% | |
| 10 | 38% | 54% | Median |
| 11 | 10% | 16% | |
| 12 | 3% | 6% | |
| 13 | 3% | 3% | |
| 14 | 0% | 0% |
Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern (EPP)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern (EPP) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 100% | |
| 2 | 0% | 100% | |
| 3 | 0.4% | 100% | |
| 4 | 11% | 99.6% | |
| 5 | 53% | 89% | Median |
| 6 | 21% | 36% | |
| 7 | 13% | 15% | |
| 8 | 1.2% | 1.2% | |
| 9 | 0% | 0% |
Bündnis Sahra Wagenknecht (NI)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Bündnis Sahra Wagenknecht (NI) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 100% | |
| 2 | 0.6% | 100% | |
| 3 | 18% | 99.4% | |
| 4 | 60% | 82% | Median |
| 5 | 19% | 22% | |
| 6 | 3% | 3% | |
| 7 | 0% | 0% |
Freie Demokratische Partei (RE)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Freie Demokratische Partei (RE) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 100% | |
| 2 | 0.4% | 100% | |
| 3 | 28% | 99.6% | |
| 4 | 59% | 71% | Median |
| 5 | 12% | 12% | |
| 6 | 0.2% | 0.2% | |
| 7 | 0% | 0% |
Freie Wähler (RE)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Freie Wähler (RE) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 55% | 100% | Median |
| 2 | 45% | 45% | |
| 3 | 0.3% | 0.3% | |
| 4 | 0% | 0% |
Partei Mensch Umwelt Tierschutz (GUE/NGL)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Partei Mensch Umwelt Tierschutz (GUE/NGL) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 86% | 93% | Median |
| 2 | 7% | 7% | |
| 3 | 0% | 0% |
Volt Europa (Greens/EFA)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Volt Europa (Greens/EFA) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 23% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 76% | 77% | Median |
| 2 | 0.5% | 0.5% | |
| 3 | 0% | 0% |
Die PARTEI (NI)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Die PARTEI (NI) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 34% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 66% | 66% | Median |
| 2 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 3 | 0% | 0% |
Basisdemokratische Partei Deutschland (*)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Basisdemokratische Partei Deutschland (*) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 92% | 100% | Last Result, Median |
| 1 | 8% | 8% | |
| 2 | 0% | 0% |
Coalitions
Confidence Intervals
| Coalition | Last Result | Median | Majority? | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alternative für Deutschland (ESN) | 0 | 23 | 0% | 21–24 | 21–25 | 20–25 | 20–26 |
| Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands (S&D) | 0 | 14 | 0% | 13–15 | 12–16 | 12–16 | 11–18 |
| Freie Demokratische Partei (RE) – Freie Wähler (RE) | 0 | 5 | 0% | 4–7 | 4–7 | 4–7 | 4–7 |
| Bündnis Sahra Wagenknecht (NI) – Die PARTEI (NI) | 0 | 5 | 0% | 4–6 | 3–6 | 3–6 | 3–7 |
Alternative für Deutschland (ESN)
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 100% | |
| 2 | 0% | 100% | |
| 3 | 0% | 100% | |
| 4 | 0% | 100% | |
| 5 | 0% | 100% | |
| 6 | 0% | 100% | |
| 7 | 0% | 100% | |
| 8 | 0% | 100% | |
| 9 | 0% | 100% | |
| 10 | 0% | 100% | |
| 11 | 0% | 100% | |
| 12 | 0% | 100% | |
| 13 | 0% | 100% | |
| 14 | 0% | 100% | |
| 15 | 0% | 100% | |
| 16 | 0% | 100% | |
| 17 | 0% | 100% | |
| 18 | 0% | 100% | |
| 19 | 0.3% | 100% | |
| 20 | 3% | 99.7% | |
| 21 | 13% | 97% | |
| 22 | 34% | 84% | |
| 23 | 23% | 50% | Median |
| 24 | 18% | 28% | |
| 25 | 8% | 9% | |
| 26 | 0.8% | 1.1% | |
| 27 | 0.3% | 0.3% | |
| 28 | 0% | 0% |
Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands (S&D)
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 100% | |
| 2 | 0% | 100% | |
| 3 | 0% | 100% | |
| 4 | 0% | 100% | |
| 5 | 0% | 100% | |
| 6 | 0% | 100% | |
| 7 | 0% | 100% | |
| 8 | 0% | 100% | |
| 9 | 0% | 100% | |
| 10 | 0% | 100% | |
| 11 | 1.1% | 100% | |
| 12 | 7% | 98.9% | |
| 13 | 19% | 91% | |
| 14 | 25% | 72% | Median |
| 15 | 41% | 47% | |
| 16 | 4% | 6% | |
| 17 | 1.4% | 2% | |
| 18 | 0.7% | 0.8% | |
| 19 | 0% | 0% |
Freie Demokratische Partei (RE) – Freie Wähler (RE)
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 100% | |
| 2 | 0% | 100% | |
| 3 | 0.2% | 100% | |
| 4 | 22% | 99.8% | |
| 5 | 36% | 77% | Median |
| 6 | 31% | 42% | |
| 7 | 11% | 11% | |
| 8 | 0% | 0% |
Bündnis Sahra Wagenknecht (NI) – Die PARTEI (NI)
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 100% | |
| 2 | 0.5% | 100% | |
| 3 | 9% | 99.5% | |
| 4 | 22% | 91% | |
| 5 | 56% | 69% | Median |
| 6 | 12% | 12% | |
| 7 | 0.9% | 0.9% | |
| 8 | 0% | 0% |
Technical Information
Opinion Poll
- Polling firm: Forschungsgruppe Wahlen
- Commissioner(s): ZDF
- Fieldwork period: 3–5 February 2026
Calculations
- Sample size: 1109
- Simulations done: 2,097,152
- Error estimate: 1.98%