Opinion Poll by Forsa for RTL n-tv, 3–9 February 2026

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Alternative für Deutschland (ESN) 0.0% 24.0% 22.7–25.3% 22.4–25.7% 22.1–26.0% 21.5–26.6%
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands (EPP) 0.0% 20.5% 19.3–21.8% 19.0–22.1% 18.7–22.5% 18.2–23.1%
Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands (S&D) 0.0% 14.0% 13.0–15.1% 12.7–15.4% 12.5–15.7% 12.0–16.2%
Bündnis 90/Die Grünen (Greens/EFA) 0.0% 13.0% 12.1–14.1% 11.8–14.4% 11.6–14.7% 11.1–15.2%
Die Linke (GUE/NGL) 0.0% 11.0% 10.1–12.0% 9.9–12.3% 9.6–12.5% 9.2–13.0%
Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern (EPP) 0.0% 5.5% 4.8–6.2% 4.7–6.4% 4.5–6.6% 4.2–7.0%
Bündnis Sahra Wagenknecht (NI) 0.0% 3.0% 2.5–3.6% 2.4–3.8% 2.3–3.9% 2.1–4.2%
Freie Demokratische Partei (RE) 0.0% 3.0% 2.5–3.6% 2.4–3.8% 2.3–3.9% 2.1–4.2%
Freie Wähler (RE) 0.0% 2.0% 1.7–2.5% 1.6–2.7% 1.5–2.8% 1.3–3.0%
Partei Mensch Umwelt Tierschutz (GUE/NGL) 0.0% 1.3% 1.0–1.7% 0.9–1.8% 0.8–1.9% 0.7–2.1%
Volt Europa (Greens/EFA) 0.0% 0.9% 0.7–1.3% 0.6–1.4% 0.6–1.5% 0.5–1.7%
Die PARTEI (NI) 0.0% 0.7% 0.5–1.0% 0.4–1.1% 0.4–1.2% 0.3–1.3%
Basisdemokratische Partei Deutschland (*) 0.0% 0.2% 0.1–0.4% 0.1–0.5% 0.1–0.6% 0.0–0.7%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Alternative für Deutschland (ESN) 0 24 22–24 21–24 21–25 21–25
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands (EPP) 0 18 18–20 18–20 18–21 18–21
Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands (S&D) 0 14 13–14 13–15 13–15 12–15
Bündnis 90/Die Grünen (Greens/EFA) 0 12 12–14 12–14 11–14 11–14
Die Linke (GUE/NGL) 0 10 10–11 10–11 10–12 9–12
Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern (EPP) 0 6 5–6 5–6 4–6 4–6
Bündnis Sahra Wagenknecht (NI) 0 3 2–3 2–3 2–3 2–4
Freie Demokratische Partei (RE) 0 3 2–3 2–3 2–3 2–4
Freie Wähler (RE) 0 2 2 1–2 1–3 1–3
Partei Mensch Umwelt Tierschutz (GUE/NGL) 0 1 1–2 1–2 1–2 1–2
Volt Europa (Greens/EFA) 0 1 1 1 1 1–2
Die PARTEI (NI) 0 1 1 1 1 0–1
Basisdemokratische Partei Deutschland (*) 0 0 0 0 0 0–1

Alternative für Deutschland (ESN)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Alternative für Deutschland (ESN) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 0% 100%  
4 0% 100%  
5 0% 100%  
6 0% 100%  
7 0% 100%  
8 0% 100%  
9 0% 100%  
10 0% 100%  
11 0% 100%  
12 0% 100%  
13 0% 100%  
14 0% 100%  
15 0% 100%  
16 0% 100%  
17 0% 100%  
18 0% 100%  
19 0% 100%  
20 0% 100%  
21 5% 99.9%  
22 29% 95%  
23 7% 65%  
24 54% 58% Median
25 4% 4%  
26 0.1% 0.1%  
27 0% 0%  

Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands (EPP)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands (EPP) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 0% 100%  
4 0% 100%  
5 0% 100%  
6 0% 100%  
7 0% 100%  
8 0% 100%  
9 0% 100%  
10 0% 100%  
11 0% 100%  
12 0% 100%  
13 0% 100%  
14 0% 100%  
15 0% 100%  
16 0% 100%  
17 0.1% 100%  
18 54% 99.9% Median
19 16% 46%  
20 25% 30%  
21 4% 4%  
22 0.1% 0.2%  
23 0% 0%  

Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands (S&D)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands (S&D) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 0% 100%  
4 0% 100%  
5 0% 100%  
6 0% 100%  
7 0% 100%  
8 0% 100%  
9 0% 100%  
10 0% 100%  
11 0% 100%  
12 0.8% 100%  
13 29% 99.1%  
14 61% 70% Median
15 9% 9%  
16 0.2% 0.2%  
17 0% 0%  

Bündnis 90/Die Grünen (Greens/EFA)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Bündnis 90/Die Grünen (Greens/EFA) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 0% 100%  
4 0% 100%  
5 0% 100%  
6 0% 100%  
7 0% 100%  
8 0% 100%  
9 0% 100%  
10 0% 100%  
11 3% 100%  
12 68% 97% Median
13 10% 29%  
14 19% 19%  
15 0.1% 0.1%  
16 0% 0%  

Die Linke (GUE/NGL)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Die Linke (GUE/NGL) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 0% 100%  
4 0% 100%  
5 0% 100%  
6 0% 100%  
7 0% 100%  
8 0% 100%  
9 2% 100%  
10 60% 98% Median
11 35% 38%  
12 3% 3%  
13 0.1% 0.1%  
14 0% 0%  

Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern (EPP)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern (EPP) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 0% 100%  
4 5% 100%  
5 36% 95%  
6 59% 59% Median
7 0.3% 0.4%  
8 0% 0%  

Bündnis Sahra Wagenknecht (NI)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Bündnis Sahra Wagenknecht (NI) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 13% 100%  
3 86% 87% Median
4 0.8% 0.8%  
5 0% 0%  

Freie Demokratische Partei (RE)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Freie Demokratische Partei (RE) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 18% 100%  
3 82% 82% Median
4 0.5% 0.6%  
5 0% 0%  

Freie Wähler (RE)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Freie Wähler (RE) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 5% 100%  
2 92% 95% Median
3 3% 3%  
4 0% 0%  

Partei Mensch Umwelt Tierschutz (GUE/NGL)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Partei Mensch Umwelt Tierschutz (GUE/NGL) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 87% 100% Median
2 13% 13%  
3 0% 0%  

Volt Europa (Greens/EFA)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Volt Europa (Greens/EFA) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0.1% 100% Last Result
1 99.0% 99.9% Median
2 0.9% 0.9%  
3 0% 0%  

Die PARTEI (NI)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Die PARTEI (NI) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 2% 100% Last Result
1 98% 98% Median
2 0% 0%  

Basisdemokratische Partei Deutschland (*)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Basisdemokratische Partei Deutschland (*) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 99.4% 100% Last Result, Median
1 0.6% 0.6%  
2 0% 0%  

Coalitions

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Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median Majority? 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Alternative für Deutschland (ESN) 0 24 0% 22–24 21–24 21–25 21–25
Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands (S&D) 0 14 0% 13–14 13–15 13–15 12–15
Freie Demokratische Partei (RE) – Freie Wähler (RE) 0 5 0% 4–5 4–5 4–5 4–6
Bündnis Sahra Wagenknecht (NI) – Die PARTEI (NI) 0 4 0% 3–4 3–4 3–4 3–4

Alternative für Deutschland (ESN)

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 0% 100%  
4 0% 100%  
5 0% 100%  
6 0% 100%  
7 0% 100%  
8 0% 100%  
9 0% 100%  
10 0% 100%  
11 0% 100%  
12 0% 100%  
13 0% 100%  
14 0% 100%  
15 0% 100%  
16 0% 100%  
17 0% 100%  
18 0% 100%  
19 0% 100%  
20 0% 100%  
21 5% 99.9%  
22 29% 95%  
23 7% 65%  
24 54% 58% Median
25 4% 4%  
26 0.1% 0.1%  
27 0% 0%  

Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands (S&D)

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 0% 100%  
4 0% 100%  
5 0% 100%  
6 0% 100%  
7 0% 100%  
8 0% 100%  
9 0% 100%  
10 0% 100%  
11 0% 100%  
12 0.8% 100%  
13 29% 99.1%  
14 61% 70% Median
15 9% 9%  
16 0.2% 0.2%  
17 0% 0%  

Freie Demokratische Partei (RE) – Freie Wähler (RE)

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 0.1% 100%  
4 21% 99.9%  
5 78% 79% Median
6 2% 2%  
7 0.1% 0.1%  
8 0% 0%  

Bündnis Sahra Wagenknecht (NI) – Die PARTEI (NI)

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0.4% 100%  
3 14% 99.6%  
4 85% 85% Median
5 0.2% 0.2%  
6 0% 0%  

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

Calculations