Opinion Poll by Forsa for RTL n-tv, 10–16 February 2026
Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information
Voting Intentions
Confidence Intervals
| Party | Last Result | Poll Result | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alternative für Deutschland (ESN) | 0.0% | 25.0% | 23.7–26.3% | 23.4–26.7% | 23.1–27.0% | 22.5–27.7% |
| Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands (EPP) | 0.0% | 20.5% | 19.3–21.8% | 19.0–22.1% | 18.7–22.4% | 18.2–23.0% |
| Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands (S&D) | 0.0% | 14.0% | 13.0–15.1% | 12.7–15.4% | 12.5–15.7% | 12.0–16.2% |
| Bündnis 90/Die Grünen (Greens/EFA) | 0.0% | 12.0% | 11.1–13.0% | 10.8–13.3% | 10.6–13.6% | 10.1–14.1% |
| Die Linke (GUE/NGL) | 0.0% | 10.0% | 9.2–11.0% | 8.9–11.2% | 8.7–11.5% | 8.3–11.9% |
| Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern (EPP) | 0.0% | 5.5% | 4.8–6.2% | 4.7–6.4% | 4.5–6.6% | 4.2–7.0% |
| Bündnis Sahra Wagenknecht (NI) | 0.0% | 3.0% | 2.5–3.6% | 2.4–3.8% | 2.3–3.9% | 2.1–4.2% |
| Freie Demokratische Partei (RE) | 0.0% | 3.0% | 2.5–3.6% | 2.4–3.8% | 2.3–3.9% | 2.1–4.2% |
| Freie Wähler (RE) | 0.0% | 2.4% | 2.0–2.9% | 1.8–3.0% | 1.8–3.2% | 1.6–3.4% |
| Partei Mensch Umwelt Tierschutz (GUE/NGL) | 0.0% | 1.5% | 1.2–1.9% | 1.1–2.0% | 1.0–2.1% | 0.9–2.4% |
| Volt Europa (Greens/EFA) | 0.0% | 1.1% | 0.8–1.5% | 0.8–1.6% | 0.7–1.7% | 0.6–1.9% |
| Die PARTEI (NI) | 0.0% | 0.8% | 0.5–1.1% | 0.5–1.2% | 0.5–1.3% | 0.4–1.5% |
| Basisdemokratische Partei Deutschland (*) | 0.0% | 0.3% | 0.2–0.5% | 0.1–0.6% | 0.1–0.6% | 0.1–0.8% |
Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.
Seats
Confidence Intervals
| Party | Last Result | Median | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alternative für Deutschland (ESN) | 0 | 24 | 23–25 | 22–26 | 22–26 | 22–26 |
| Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands (EPP) | 0 | 19 | 18–21 | 18–21 | 18–22 | 17–22 |
| Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands (S&D) | 0 | 13 | 12–15 | 12–15 | 12–16 | 12–16 |
| Bündnis 90/Die Grünen (Greens/EFA) | 0 | 12 | 11–13 | 11–13 | 10–13 | 10–14 |
| Die Linke (GUE/NGL) | 0 | 10 | 9–10 | 8–11 | 8–11 | 8–11 |
| Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern (EPP) | 0 | 6 | 5–7 | 4–7 | 4–7 | 4–7 |
| Bündnis Sahra Wagenknecht (NI) | 0 | 3 | 2–4 | 2–4 | 2–4 | 2–4 |
| Freie Demokratische Partei (RE) | 0 | 3 | 2–3 | 2–3 | 2–3 | 2–4 |
| Freie Wähler (RE) | 0 | 2 | 2–3 | 2–3 | 2–3 | 1–3 |
| Partei Mensch Umwelt Tierschutz (GUE/NGL) | 0 | 1 | 1–2 | 1–2 | 1–2 | 1–2 |
| Volt Europa (Greens/EFA) | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1–2 | 1–2 | 1–2 |
| Die PARTEI (NI) | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0–1 | 0–1 | 0–1 |
| Basisdemokratische Partei Deutschland (*) | 0 | 0 | 0–1 | 0–1 | 0–1 | 0–1 |
Alternative für Deutschland (ESN)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Alternative für Deutschland (ESN) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 100% | |
| 2 | 0% | 100% | |
| 3 | 0% | 100% | |
| 4 | 0% | 100% | |
| 5 | 0% | 100% | |
| 6 | 0% | 100% | |
| 7 | 0% | 100% | |
| 8 | 0% | 100% | |
| 9 | 0% | 100% | |
| 10 | 0% | 100% | |
| 11 | 0% | 100% | |
| 12 | 0% | 100% | |
| 13 | 0% | 100% | |
| 14 | 0% | 100% | |
| 15 | 0% | 100% | |
| 16 | 0% | 100% | |
| 17 | 0% | 100% | |
| 18 | 0% | 100% | |
| 19 | 0% | 100% | |
| 20 | 0% | 100% | |
| 21 | 0.3% | 100% | |
| 22 | 7% | 99.7% | |
| 23 | 38% | 93% | |
| 24 | 22% | 54% | Median |
| 25 | 23% | 32% | |
| 26 | 9% | 9% | |
| 27 | 0.2% | 0.2% | |
| 28 | 0% | 0% |
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands (EPP)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands (EPP) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 100% | |
| 2 | 0% | 100% | |
| 3 | 0% | 100% | |
| 4 | 0% | 100% | |
| 5 | 0% | 100% | |
| 6 | 0% | 100% | |
| 7 | 0% | 100% | |
| 8 | 0% | 100% | |
| 9 | 0% | 100% | |
| 10 | 0% | 100% | |
| 11 | 0% | 100% | |
| 12 | 0% | 100% | |
| 13 | 0% | 100% | |
| 14 | 0% | 100% | |
| 15 | 0% | 100% | |
| 16 | 0% | 100% | |
| 17 | 2% | 100% | |
| 18 | 11% | 98% | |
| 19 | 46% | 88% | Median |
| 20 | 31% | 41% | |
| 21 | 8% | 11% | |
| 22 | 3% | 3% | |
| 23 | 0.3% | 0.3% | |
| 24 | 0% | 0% |
Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands (S&D)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands (S&D) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 100% | |
| 2 | 0% | 100% | |
| 3 | 0% | 100% | |
| 4 | 0% | 100% | |
| 5 | 0% | 100% | |
| 6 | 0% | 100% | |
| 7 | 0% | 100% | |
| 8 | 0% | 100% | |
| 9 | 0% | 100% | |
| 10 | 0% | 100% | |
| 11 | 0.4% | 100% | |
| 12 | 23% | 99.5% | |
| 13 | 36% | 77% | Median |
| 14 | 28% | 41% | |
| 15 | 9% | 12% | |
| 16 | 4% | 4% | |
| 17 | 0% | 0% |
Bündnis 90/Die Grünen (Greens/EFA)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Bündnis 90/Die Grünen (Greens/EFA) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 100% | |
| 2 | 0% | 100% | |
| 3 | 0% | 100% | |
| 4 | 0% | 100% | |
| 5 | 0% | 100% | |
| 6 | 0% | 100% | |
| 7 | 0% | 100% | |
| 8 | 0% | 100% | |
| 9 | 0.4% | 100% | |
| 10 | 3% | 99.6% | |
| 11 | 45% | 97% | |
| 12 | 39% | 51% | Median |
| 13 | 10% | 12% | |
| 14 | 2% | 2% | |
| 15 | 0% | 0% |
Die Linke (GUE/NGL)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Die Linke (GUE/NGL) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 100% | |
| 2 | 0% | 100% | |
| 3 | 0% | 100% | |
| 4 | 0% | 100% | |
| 5 | 0% | 100% | |
| 6 | 0% | 100% | |
| 7 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 8 | 8% | 99.9% | |
| 9 | 34% | 92% | |
| 10 | 50% | 58% | Median |
| 11 | 8% | 8% | |
| 12 | 0.4% | 0.5% | |
| 13 | 0% | 0% |
Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern (EPP)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern (EPP) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 100% | |
| 2 | 0% | 100% | |
| 3 | 0% | 100% | |
| 4 | 5% | 100% | |
| 5 | 42% | 95% | |
| 6 | 41% | 53% | Median |
| 7 | 12% | 12% | |
| 8 | 0% | 0% |
Bündnis Sahra Wagenknecht (NI)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Bündnis Sahra Wagenknecht (NI) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 100% | |
| 2 | 23% | 100% | |
| 3 | 67% | 77% | Median |
| 4 | 10% | 10% | |
| 5 | 0% | 0% |
Freie Demokratische Partei (RE)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Freie Demokratische Partei (RE) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 100% | |
| 2 | 27% | 100% | |
| 3 | 71% | 73% | Median |
| 4 | 2% | 2% | |
| 5 | 0% | 0% |
Freie Wähler (RE)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Freie Wähler (RE) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0.5% | 100% | |
| 2 | 59% | 99.5% | Median |
| 3 | 40% | 40% | |
| 4 | 0% | 0% |
Partei Mensch Umwelt Tierschutz (GUE/NGL)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Partei Mensch Umwelt Tierschutz (GUE/NGL) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 64% | 100% | Median |
| 2 | 36% | 36% | |
| 3 | 0% | 0% |
Volt Europa (Greens/EFA)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Volt Europa (Greens/EFA) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 92% | 100% | Median |
| 2 | 8% | 8% | |
| 3 | 0% | 0% |
Die PARTEI (NI)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Die PARTEI (NI) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 95% | 95% | Median |
| 2 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 3 | 0% | 0% |
Basisdemokratische Partei Deutschland (*)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Basisdemokratische Partei Deutschland (*) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 89% | 100% | Last Result, Median |
| 1 | 11% | 11% | |
| 2 | 0% | 0% |
Coalitions
Confidence Intervals
| Coalition | Last Result | Median | Majority? | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alternative für Deutschland (ESN) | 0 | 24 | 0% | 23–25 | 22–26 | 22–26 | 22–26 |
| Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands (S&D) | 0 | 13 | 0% | 12–15 | 12–15 | 12–16 | 12–16 |
| Freie Demokratische Partei (RE) – Freie Wähler (RE) | 0 | 5 | 0% | 4–6 | 4–6 | 4–6 | 4–7 |
| Bündnis Sahra Wagenknecht (NI) – Die PARTEI (NI) | 0 | 4 | 0% | 3–4 | 3–5 | 3–5 | 3–5 |
Alternative für Deutschland (ESN)
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 100% | |
| 2 | 0% | 100% | |
| 3 | 0% | 100% | |
| 4 | 0% | 100% | |
| 5 | 0% | 100% | |
| 6 | 0% | 100% | |
| 7 | 0% | 100% | |
| 8 | 0% | 100% | |
| 9 | 0% | 100% | |
| 10 | 0% | 100% | |
| 11 | 0% | 100% | |
| 12 | 0% | 100% | |
| 13 | 0% | 100% | |
| 14 | 0% | 100% | |
| 15 | 0% | 100% | |
| 16 | 0% | 100% | |
| 17 | 0% | 100% | |
| 18 | 0% | 100% | |
| 19 | 0% | 100% | |
| 20 | 0% | 100% | |
| 21 | 0.3% | 100% | |
| 22 | 7% | 99.7% | |
| 23 | 38% | 93% | |
| 24 | 22% | 54% | Median |
| 25 | 23% | 32% | |
| 26 | 9% | 9% | |
| 27 | 0.2% | 0.2% | |
| 28 | 0% | 0% |
Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands (S&D)
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 100% | |
| 2 | 0% | 100% | |
| 3 | 0% | 100% | |
| 4 | 0% | 100% | |
| 5 | 0% | 100% | |
| 6 | 0% | 100% | |
| 7 | 0% | 100% | |
| 8 | 0% | 100% | |
| 9 | 0% | 100% | |
| 10 | 0% | 100% | |
| 11 | 0.4% | 100% | |
| 12 | 23% | 99.5% | |
| 13 | 36% | 77% | Median |
| 14 | 28% | 41% | |
| 15 | 9% | 12% | |
| 16 | 4% | 4% | |
| 17 | 0% | 0% |
Freie Demokratische Partei (RE) – Freie Wähler (RE)
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 100% | |
| 2 | 0% | 100% | |
| 3 | 0.2% | 100% | |
| 4 | 20% | 99.8% | |
| 5 | 46% | 80% | Median |
| 6 | 33% | 34% | |
| 7 | 0.9% | 0.9% | |
| 8 | 0% | 0% |
Bündnis Sahra Wagenknecht (NI) – Die PARTEI (NI)
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 100% | |
| 2 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 3 | 26% | 99.9% | |
| 4 | 67% | 74% | Median |
| 5 | 7% | 7% | |
| 6 | 0% | 0% |
Technical Information
Opinion Poll
- Polling firm: Forsa
- Commissioner(s): RTL n-tv
- Fieldwork period: 10–16 February 2026
Calculations
- Sample size: 1828
- Simulations done: 2,097,152
- Error estimate: 1.89%