Opinion Poll by Ipsos, 27 February–1 March 2026

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Alternative für Deutschland (ESN) 0.0% 24.0% 22.3–25.8% 21.9–26.3% 21.4–26.7% 20.7–27.6%
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands (EPP) 0.0% 19.7% 18.2–21.4% 17.7–21.9% 17.3–22.3% 16.6–23.1%
Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands (S&D) 0.0% 15.0% 13.6–16.5% 13.2–17.0% 12.9–17.4% 12.3–18.1%
Bündnis 90/Die Grünen (Greens/EFA) 0.0% 14.0% 12.7–15.5% 12.3–15.9% 12.0–16.3% 11.4–17.0%
Die Linke (GUE/NGL) 0.0% 11.0% 9.8–12.4% 9.5–12.8% 9.2–13.1% 8.7–13.8%
Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern (EPP) 0.0% 5.3% 4.5–6.3% 4.3–6.6% 4.1–6.9% 3.7–7.4%
Freie Demokratische Partei (RE) 0.0% 4.0% 3.3–4.9% 3.1–5.2% 2.9–5.4% 2.7–5.9%
Bündnis Sahra Wagenknecht (NI) 0.0% 3.0% 2.4–3.8% 2.2–4.1% 2.1–4.3% 1.9–4.7%
Freie Wähler (RE) 0.0% 1.4% 1.0–2.0% 0.9–2.2% 0.8–2.3% 0.7–2.7%
Partei Mensch Umwelt Tierschutz (GUE/NGL) 0.0% 0.8% 0.5–1.3% 0.5–1.4% 0.4–1.6% 0.3–1.9%
Volt Europa (Greens/EFA) 0.0% 0.6% 0.4–1.1% 0.3–1.2% 0.3–1.3% 0.2–1.6%
Die PARTEI (NI) 0.0% 0.4% 0.2–0.8% 0.2–0.9% 0.2–1.0% 0.1–1.3%
Basisdemokratische Partei Deutschland (*) 0.0% 0.2% 0.1–0.5% 0.1–0.6% 0.1–0.7% 0.0–0.9%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Alternative für Deutschland (ESN) 0 24 22–25 21–25 21–25 20–25
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands (EPP) 0 19 17–21 17–21 17–21 16–21
Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands (S&D) 0 14 13–16 13–16 13–16 12–17
Bündnis 90/Die Grünen (Greens/EFA) 0 13 11–15 11–15 11–15 11–15
Die Linke (GUE/NGL) 0 10 9–11 9–11 8–12 8–13
Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern (EPP) 0 5 4–6 4–6 4–6 4–7
Freie Demokratische Partei (RE) 0 4 3–4 3–5 3–5 3–5
Bündnis Sahra Wagenknecht (NI) 0 3 2–4 2–4 2–4 2–4
Freie Wähler (RE) 0 2 1–2 1–2 1–2 1–3
Partei Mensch Umwelt Tierschutz (GUE/NGL) 0 1 0–1 0–1 0–1 0–2
Volt Europa (Greens/EFA) 0 1 0–1 0–1 0–1 0–1
Die PARTEI (NI) 0 0 0–1 0–1 0–1 0–1
Basisdemokratische Partei Deutschland (*) 0 0 0 0–1 0–1 0–1

Alternative für Deutschland (ESN)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Alternative für Deutschland (ESN) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 0% 100%  
4 0% 100%  
5 0% 100%  
6 0% 100%  
7 0% 100%  
8 0% 100%  
9 0% 100%  
10 0% 100%  
11 0% 100%  
12 0% 100%  
13 0% 100%  
14 0% 100%  
15 0% 100%  
16 0% 100%  
17 0% 100%  
18 0% 100%  
19 0.1% 100%  
20 2% 99.9%  
21 5% 98%  
22 15% 93%  
23 20% 78%  
24 48% 58% Median
25 10% 11%  
26 0.2% 0.3%  
27 0% 0.1%  
28 0% 0%  

Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands (EPP)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands (EPP) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 0% 100%  
4 0% 100%  
5 0% 100%  
6 0% 100%  
7 0% 100%  
8 0% 100%  
9 0% 100%  
10 0% 100%  
11 0% 100%  
12 0% 100%  
13 0% 100%  
14 0% 100%  
15 0.1% 100%  
16 2% 99.9%  
17 21% 98%  
18 19% 77%  
19 26% 58% Median
20 20% 32%  
21 11% 12%  
22 0.3% 0.3%  
23 0% 0%  

Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands (S&D)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands (S&D) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 0% 100%  
4 0% 100%  
5 0% 100%  
6 0% 100%  
7 0% 100%  
8 0% 100%  
9 0% 100%  
10 0% 100%  
11 0.1% 100%  
12 2% 99.9%  
13 38% 98%  
14 22% 60% Median
15 28% 38%  
16 9% 11%  
17 1.2% 1.3%  
18 0.1% 0.1%  
19 0% 0%  

Bündnis 90/Die Grünen (Greens/EFA)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Bündnis 90/Die Grünen (Greens/EFA) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 0% 100%  
4 0% 100%  
5 0% 100%  
6 0% 100%  
7 0% 100%  
8 0% 100%  
9 0% 100%  
10 0% 100%  
11 12% 100%  
12 29% 88%  
13 18% 59% Median
14 21% 42%  
15 20% 20%  
16 0.3% 0.4%  
17 0.1% 0.1%  
18 0% 0%  

Die Linke (GUE/NGL)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Die Linke (GUE/NGL) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 0% 100%  
4 0% 100%  
5 0% 100%  
6 0% 100%  
7 0% 100%  
8 4% 100%  
9 27% 96%  
10 22% 69% Median
11 43% 47%  
12 3% 4%  
13 1.0% 1.1%  
14 0% 0%  

Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern (EPP)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern (EPP) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 0.4% 100%  
4 11% 99.6%  
5 76% 89% Median
6 11% 12%  
7 1.0% 1.0%  
8 0% 0%  

Freie Demokratische Partei (RE)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Freie Demokratische Partei (RE) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0.3% 100%  
3 33% 99.7%  
4 58% 67% Median
5 9% 9%  
6 0.2% 0.2%  
7 0% 0%  

Bündnis Sahra Wagenknecht (NI)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Bündnis Sahra Wagenknecht (NI) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 12% 100%  
3 74% 88% Median
4 14% 14%  
5 0.2% 0.2%  
6 0% 0%  

Freie Wähler (RE)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Freie Wähler (RE) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 14% 100%  
2 86% 86% Median
3 0.8% 0.8%  
4 0% 0%  

Partei Mensch Umwelt Tierschutz (GUE/NGL)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Partei Mensch Umwelt Tierschutz (GUE/NGL) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 11% 100% Last Result
1 89% 89% Median
2 0.7% 0.7%  
3 0% 0%  

Volt Europa (Greens/EFA)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Volt Europa (Greens/EFA) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 14% 100% Last Result
1 86% 86% Median
2 0.2% 0.2%  
3 0% 0%  

Die PARTEI (NI)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Die PARTEI (NI) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 65% 100% Last Result, Median
1 35% 35%  
2 0.1% 0.1%  
3 0% 0%  

Basisdemokratische Partei Deutschland (*)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Basisdemokratische Partei Deutschland (*) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 93% 100% Last Result, Median
1 7% 7%  
2 0% 0%  

Coalitions

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Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median Majority? 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Alternative für Deutschland (ESN) 0 24 0% 22–25 21–25 21–25 20–25
Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands (S&D) 0 14 0% 13–16 13–16 13–16 12–17
Freie Demokratische Partei (RE) – Freie Wähler (RE) 0 6 0% 5–6 5–7 5–7 4–7
Bündnis Sahra Wagenknecht (NI) – Die PARTEI (NI) 0 3 0% 3–4 3–4 2–4 2–5

Alternative für Deutschland (ESN)

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 0% 100%  
4 0% 100%  
5 0% 100%  
6 0% 100%  
7 0% 100%  
8 0% 100%  
9 0% 100%  
10 0% 100%  
11 0% 100%  
12 0% 100%  
13 0% 100%  
14 0% 100%  
15 0% 100%  
16 0% 100%  
17 0% 100%  
18 0% 100%  
19 0.1% 100%  
20 2% 99.9%  
21 5% 98%  
22 15% 93%  
23 20% 78%  
24 48% 58% Median
25 10% 11%  
26 0.2% 0.3%  
27 0% 0.1%  
28 0% 0%  

Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands (S&D)

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 0% 100%  
4 0% 100%  
5 0% 100%  
6 0% 100%  
7 0% 100%  
8 0% 100%  
9 0% 100%  
10 0% 100%  
11 0.1% 100%  
12 2% 99.9%  
13 38% 98%  
14 22% 60% Median
15 28% 38%  
16 9% 11%  
17 1.2% 1.3%  
18 0.1% 0.1%  
19 0% 0%  

Freie Demokratische Partei (RE) – Freie Wähler (RE)

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 0.3% 100%  
4 1.3% 99.7%  
5 39% 98%  
6 55% 60% Median
7 5% 5%  
8 0.1% 0.1%  
9 0% 0%  

Bündnis Sahra Wagenknecht (NI) – Die PARTEI (NI)

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 4% 100%  
3 57% 96% Median
4 36% 39%  
5 2% 2%  
6 0.2% 0.2%  
7 0% 0%  

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

Calculations