Opinion Poll by Infratest dimap for SWR, 2–4 March 2026
Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information
Voting Intentions
Confidence Intervals
| Party | Last Result | Poll Result | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alternative für Deutschland (ESN) | 0.0% | 22.9% | 21.5–24.5% | 21.1–24.9% | 20.7–25.3% | 20.1–26.0% |
| Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands (EPP) | 0.0% | 22.0% | 20.6–23.5% | 20.2–24.0% | 19.9–24.3% | 19.2–25.1% |
| Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands (S&D) | 0.0% | 14.0% | 12.8–15.3% | 12.5–15.6% | 12.2–16.0% | 11.7–16.6% |
| Bündnis 90/Die Grünen (Greens/EFA) | 0.0% | 13.0% | 11.9–14.3% | 11.5–14.6% | 11.3–14.9% | 10.7–15.5% |
| Die Linke (GUE/NGL) | 0.0% | 9.0% | 8.0–10.1% | 7.8–10.4% | 7.5–10.6% | 7.1–11.2% |
| Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern (EPP) | 0.0% | 5.8% | 5.1–6.8% | 4.9–7.0% | 4.7–7.3% | 4.4–7.7% |
| Bündnis Sahra Wagenknecht (NI) | 0.0% | 4.0% | 3.4–4.8% | 3.2–5.0% | 3.1–5.2% | 2.8–5.6% |
| Freie Wähler (RE) | 0.0% | 3.0% | 2.5–3.7% | 2.4–3.9% | 2.2–4.1% | 2.0–4.5% |
| Partei Mensch Umwelt Tierschutz (GUE/NGL) | 0.0% | 1.9% | 1.5–2.5% | 1.4–2.7% | 1.3–2.8% | 1.1–3.1% |
| Volt Europa (Greens/EFA) | 0.0% | 1.4% | 1.1–2.0% | 1.0–2.1% | 0.9–2.3% | 0.8–2.5% |
| Die PARTEI (NI) | 0.0% | 1.0% | 0.7–1.4% | 0.6–1.6% | 0.6–1.7% | 0.5–1.9% |
| Basisdemokratische Partei Deutschland (*) | 0.0% | 0.3% | 0.2–0.6% | 0.1–0.7% | 0.1–0.8% | 0.1–1.0% |
| Freie Demokratische Partei (RE) | 0.0% | 0.2% | 0.1–0.5% | 0.1–0.6% | 0.1–0.7% | 0.0–0.8% |
Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.
Seats
Confidence Intervals
| Party | Last Result | Median | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alternative für Deutschland (ESN) | 0 | 22 | 21–23 | 21–23 | 21–24 | 19–24 |
| Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands (EPP) | 0 | 20 | 19–22 | 19–22 | 19–23 | 18–23 |
| Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands (S&D) | 0 | 14 | 12–14 | 12–14 | 12–15 | 11–15 |
| Bündnis 90/Die Grünen (Greens/EFA) | 0 | 13 | 12–14 | 12–14 | 11–15 | 11–15 |
| Die Linke (GUE/NGL) | 0 | 9 | 8–10 | 8–10 | 8–11 | 7–11 |
| Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern (EPP) | 0 | 6 | 5–6 | 5–6 | 5–7 | 4–7 |
| Bündnis Sahra Wagenknecht (NI) | 0 | 4 | 3–5 | 3–5 | 3–5 | 3–5 |
| Freie Wähler (RE) | 0 | 3 | 3 | 2–4 | 2–4 | 2–4 |
| Partei Mensch Umwelt Tierschutz (GUE/NGL) | 0 | 1 | 1–2 | 1–2 | 1–3 | 1–3 |
| Volt Europa (Greens/EFA) | 0 | 1 | 1–2 | 1–2 | 1–2 | 1–3 |
| Die PARTEI (NI) | 0 | 1 | 1–2 | 1–2 | 1–2 | 1–2 |
| Basisdemokratische Partei Deutschland (*) | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0–1 | 0–1 | 0–1 |
| Freie Demokratische Partei (RE) | 0 | 0 | 0–1 | 0–1 | 0–1 | 0–1 |
Alternative für Deutschland (ESN)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Alternative für Deutschland (ESN) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 100% | |
| 2 | 0% | 100% | |
| 3 | 0% | 100% | |
| 4 | 0% | 100% | |
| 5 | 0% | 100% | |
| 6 | 0% | 100% | |
| 7 | 0% | 100% | |
| 8 | 0% | 100% | |
| 9 | 0% | 100% | |
| 10 | 0% | 100% | |
| 11 | 0% | 100% | |
| 12 | 0% | 100% | |
| 13 | 0% | 100% | |
| 14 | 0% | 100% | |
| 15 | 0% | 100% | |
| 16 | 0% | 100% | |
| 17 | 0% | 100% | |
| 18 | 0% | 100% | |
| 19 | 0.5% | 100% | |
| 20 | 1.3% | 99.5% | |
| 21 | 38% | 98% | |
| 22 | 20% | 60% | Median |
| 23 | 35% | 39% | |
| 24 | 3% | 4% | |
| 25 | 0.4% | 0.4% | |
| 26 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 27 | 0% | 0% |
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands (EPP)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands (EPP) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 100% | |
| 2 | 0% | 100% | |
| 3 | 0% | 100% | |
| 4 | 0% | 100% | |
| 5 | 0% | 100% | |
| 6 | 0% | 100% | |
| 7 | 0% | 100% | |
| 8 | 0% | 100% | |
| 9 | 0% | 100% | |
| 10 | 0% | 100% | |
| 11 | 0% | 100% | |
| 12 | 0% | 100% | |
| 13 | 0% | 100% | |
| 14 | 0% | 100% | |
| 15 | 0% | 100% | |
| 16 | 0% | 100% | |
| 17 | 0% | 100% | |
| 18 | 0.8% | 100% | |
| 19 | 33% | 99.1% | |
| 20 | 42% | 66% | Median |
| 21 | 10% | 24% | |
| 22 | 11% | 14% | |
| 23 | 3% | 3% | |
| 24 | 0.3% | 0.3% | |
| 25 | 0% | 0% |
Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands (S&D)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands (S&D) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 100% | |
| 2 | 0% | 100% | |
| 3 | 0% | 100% | |
| 4 | 0% | 100% | |
| 5 | 0% | 100% | |
| 6 | 0% | 100% | |
| 7 | 0% | 100% | |
| 8 | 0% | 100% | |
| 9 | 0% | 100% | |
| 10 | 0% | 100% | |
| 11 | 0.7% | 100% | |
| 12 | 15% | 99.3% | |
| 13 | 20% | 85% | |
| 14 | 61% | 65% | Median |
| 15 | 4% | 4% | |
| 16 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 17 | 0% | 0% |
Bündnis 90/Die Grünen (Greens/EFA)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Bündnis 90/Die Grünen (Greens/EFA) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 100% | |
| 2 | 0% | 100% | |
| 3 | 0% | 100% | |
| 4 | 0% | 100% | |
| 5 | 0% | 100% | |
| 6 | 0% | 100% | |
| 7 | 0% | 100% | |
| 8 | 0% | 100% | |
| 9 | 0% | 100% | |
| 10 | 0.2% | 100% | |
| 11 | 3% | 99.8% | |
| 12 | 10% | 96% | |
| 13 | 51% | 86% | Median |
| 14 | 32% | 35% | |
| 15 | 3% | 3% | |
| 16 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 17 | 0% | 0% |
Die Linke (GUE/NGL)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Die Linke (GUE/NGL) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 100% | |
| 2 | 0% | 100% | |
| 3 | 0% | 100% | |
| 4 | 0% | 100% | |
| 5 | 0% | 100% | |
| 6 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 7 | 2% | 99.9% | |
| 8 | 13% | 98% | |
| 9 | 68% | 85% | Median |
| 10 | 13% | 17% | |
| 11 | 4% | 4% | |
| 12 | 0% | 0% |
Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern (EPP)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern (EPP) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 100% | |
| 2 | 0% | 100% | |
| 3 | 0% | 100% | |
| 4 | 2% | 100% | |
| 5 | 19% | 98% | |
| 6 | 75% | 80% | Median |
| 7 | 5% | 5% | |
| 8 | 0.2% | 0.2% | |
| 9 | 0% | 0% |
Bündnis Sahra Wagenknecht (NI)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Bündnis Sahra Wagenknecht (NI) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 100% | |
| 2 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 3 | 16% | 99.9% | |
| 4 | 55% | 84% | Median |
| 5 | 28% | 29% | |
| 6 | 0.4% | 0.4% | |
| 7 | 0% | 0% |
Freie Wähler (RE)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Freie Wähler (RE) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 100% | |
| 2 | 6% | 100% | |
| 3 | 87% | 94% | Median |
| 4 | 7% | 7% | |
| 5 | 0.2% | 0.2% | |
| 6 | 0% | 0% |
Partei Mensch Umwelt Tierschutz (GUE/NGL)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Partei Mensch Umwelt Tierschutz (GUE/NGL) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 64% | 100% | Median |
| 2 | 31% | 36% | |
| 3 | 4% | 4% | |
| 4 | 0% | 0% |
Volt Europa (Greens/EFA)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Volt Europa (Greens/EFA) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 89% | 100% | Median |
| 2 | 10% | 11% | |
| 3 | 0.6% | 0.6% | |
| 4 | 0% | 0% |
Die PARTEI (NI)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Die PARTEI (NI) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0.3% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 89% | 99.7% | Median |
| 2 | 10% | 10% | |
| 3 | 0% | 0% |
Basisdemokratische Partei Deutschland (*)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Basisdemokratische Partei Deutschland (*) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 91% | 100% | Last Result, Median |
| 1 | 9% | 9% | |
| 2 | 0% | 0% |
Freie Demokratische Partei (RE)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Freie Demokratische Partei (RE) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 90% | 100% | Last Result, Median |
| 1 | 10% | 10% | |
| 2 | 0% | 0% |
Coalitions
Confidence Intervals
| Coalition | Last Result | Median | Majority? | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alternative für Deutschland (ESN) | 0 | 22 | 0% | 21–23 | 21–23 | 21–24 | 19–24 |
| Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands (S&D) | 0 | 14 | 0% | 12–14 | 12–14 | 12–15 | 11–15 |
| Bündnis Sahra Wagenknecht (NI) – Die PARTEI (NI) | 0 | 5 | 0% | 5–6 | 4–6 | 4–6 | 4–7 |
| Freie Wähler (RE) – Freie Demokratische Partei (RE) | 0 | 3 | 0% | 3–4 | 3–4 | 2–5 | 2–5 |
Alternative für Deutschland (ESN)
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 100% | |
| 2 | 0% | 100% | |
| 3 | 0% | 100% | |
| 4 | 0% | 100% | |
| 5 | 0% | 100% | |
| 6 | 0% | 100% | |
| 7 | 0% | 100% | |
| 8 | 0% | 100% | |
| 9 | 0% | 100% | |
| 10 | 0% | 100% | |
| 11 | 0% | 100% | |
| 12 | 0% | 100% | |
| 13 | 0% | 100% | |
| 14 | 0% | 100% | |
| 15 | 0% | 100% | |
| 16 | 0% | 100% | |
| 17 | 0% | 100% | |
| 18 | 0% | 100% | |
| 19 | 0.5% | 100% | |
| 20 | 1.3% | 99.5% | |
| 21 | 38% | 98% | |
| 22 | 20% | 60% | Median |
| 23 | 35% | 39% | |
| 24 | 3% | 4% | |
| 25 | 0.4% | 0.4% | |
| 26 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 27 | 0% | 0% |
Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands (S&D)
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 100% | |
| 2 | 0% | 100% | |
| 3 | 0% | 100% | |
| 4 | 0% | 100% | |
| 5 | 0% | 100% | |
| 6 | 0% | 100% | |
| 7 | 0% | 100% | |
| 8 | 0% | 100% | |
| 9 | 0% | 100% | |
| 10 | 0% | 100% | |
| 11 | 0.7% | 100% | |
| 12 | 15% | 99.3% | |
| 13 | 20% | 85% | |
| 14 | 61% | 65% | Median |
| 15 | 4% | 4% | |
| 16 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 17 | 0% | 0% |
Bündnis Sahra Wagenknecht (NI) – Die PARTEI (NI)
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 100% | |
| 2 | 0% | 100% | |
| 3 | 0.3% | 100% | |
| 4 | 9% | 99.7% | |
| 5 | 58% | 91% | Median |
| 6 | 32% | 33% | |
| 7 | 0.6% | 0.6% | |
| 8 | 0% | 0% |
Freie Wähler (RE) – Freie Demokratische Partei (RE)
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 100% | |
| 2 | 3% | 100% | |
| 3 | 86% | 97% | Median |
| 4 | 9% | 12% | |
| 5 | 2% | 3% | |
| 6 | 0.2% | 0.2% | |
| 7 | 0% | 0% |
Technical Information
Opinion Poll
- Polling firm: Infratest dimap
- Commissioner(s): SWR
- Fieldwork period: 2–4 March 2026
Calculations
- Sample size: 1317
- Simulations done: 2,097,152
- Error estimate: 2.15%