Opinion Poll by Allensbach, 12 March 2026
Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information
Voting Intentions
Confidence Intervals
| Party | Last Result | Poll Result | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alternative für Deutschland (ESN) | 0.0% | 23.0% | 21.4–24.7% | 20.9–25.2% | 20.5–25.6% | 19.8–26.5% |
| Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands (EPP) | 0.0% | 22.1% | 20.5–23.8% | 20.1–24.3% | 19.7–24.7% | 18.9–25.6% |
| Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands (S&D) | 0.0% | 16.0% | 14.6–17.5% | 14.2–18.0% | 13.9–18.3% | 13.2–19.1% |
| Bündnis 90/Die Grünen (Greens/EFA) | 0.0% | 11.5% | 10.3–12.8% | 10.0–13.2% | 9.7–13.6% | 9.1–14.3% |
| Die Linke (GUE/NGL) | 0.0% | 10.0% | 8.9–11.3% | 8.6–11.7% | 8.4–12.0% | 7.9–12.7% |
| Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern (EPP) | 0.0% | 5.9% | 5.1–7.0% | 4.8–7.3% | 4.6–7.5% | 4.3–8.1% |
| Freie Demokratische Partei (RE) | 0.0% | 4.0% | 3.3–4.9% | 3.1–5.2% | 3.0–5.4% | 2.7–5.9% |
| Bündnis Sahra Wagenknecht (NI) | 0.0% | 3.9% | 3.2–4.8% | 3.1–5.1% | 2.9–5.3% | 2.6–5.7% |
| Freie Wähler (RE) | 0.0% | 1.2% | 0.9–1.8% | 0.8–2.0% | 0.7–2.1% | 0.6–2.4% |
| Partei Mensch Umwelt Tierschutz (GUE/NGL) | 0.0% | 0.8% | 0.5–1.2% | 0.4–1.4% | 0.4–1.5% | 0.3–1.8% |
| Volt Europa (Greens/EFA) | 0.0% | 0.6% | 0.4–1.0% | 0.3–1.1% | 0.3–1.2% | 0.2–1.5% |
| Die PARTEI (NI) | 0.0% | 0.4% | 0.2–0.8% | 0.2–0.9% | 0.2–1.0% | 0.1–1.2% |
| Basisdemokratische Partei Deutschland (*) | 0.0% | 0.1% | 0.0–0.4% | 0.0–0.5% | 0.0–0.5% | 0.0–0.7% |
Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.
Seats
Confidence Intervals
| Party | Last Result | Median | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alternative für Deutschland (ESN) | 0 | 22 | 20–24 | 20–24 | 20–24 | 19–24 |
| Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands (EPP) | 0 | 21 | 20–23 | 19–23 | 19–23 | 18–24 |
| Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands (S&D) | 0 | 14 | 14–16 | 14–16 | 13–16 | 13–17 |
| Bündnis 90/Die Grünen (Greens/EFA) | 0 | 11 | 10–12 | 10–12 | 9–12 | 9–13 |
| Die Linke (GUE/NGL) | 0 | 10 | 9–10 | 8–11 | 7–11 | 7–12 |
| Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern (EPP) | 0 | 7 | 5–7 | 5–7 | 5–7 | 4–8 |
| Freie Demokratische Partei (RE) | 0 | 4 | 3–4 | 3–5 | 3–5 | 3–6 |
| Bündnis Sahra Wagenknecht (NI) | 0 | 3 | 3–4 | 3–4 | 3–5 | 3–5 |
| Freie Wähler (RE) | 0 | 2 | 1–2 | 1–2 | 1–2 | 0–3 |
| Partei Mensch Umwelt Tierschutz (GUE/NGL) | 0 | 1 | 0–1 | 0–1 | 0–1 | 0–2 |
| Volt Europa (Greens/EFA) | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0–1 | 0–1 | 0–1 |
| Die PARTEI (NI) | 0 | 0 | 0–1 | 0–1 | 0–1 | 0–1 |
| Basisdemokratische Partei Deutschland (*) | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0–1 | 0–1 |
Alternative für Deutschland (ESN)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Alternative für Deutschland (ESN) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 100% | |
| 2 | 0% | 100% | |
| 3 | 0% | 100% | |
| 4 | 0% | 100% | |
| 5 | 0% | 100% | |
| 6 | 0% | 100% | |
| 7 | 0% | 100% | |
| 8 | 0% | 100% | |
| 9 | 0% | 100% | |
| 10 | 0% | 100% | |
| 11 | 0% | 100% | |
| 12 | 0% | 100% | |
| 13 | 0% | 100% | |
| 14 | 0% | 100% | |
| 15 | 0% | 100% | |
| 16 | 0% | 100% | |
| 17 | 0% | 100% | |
| 18 | 0.4% | 100% | |
| 19 | 1.4% | 99.6% | |
| 20 | 9% | 98% | |
| 21 | 9% | 89% | |
| 22 | 51% | 80% | Median |
| 23 | 6% | 30% | |
| 24 | 23% | 23% | |
| 25 | 0.4% | 0.4% | |
| 26 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 27 | 0% | 0% |
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands (EPP)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands (EPP) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 100% | |
| 2 | 0% | 100% | |
| 3 | 0% | 100% | |
| 4 | 0% | 100% | |
| 5 | 0% | 100% | |
| 6 | 0% | 100% | |
| 7 | 0% | 100% | |
| 8 | 0% | 100% | |
| 9 | 0% | 100% | |
| 10 | 0% | 100% | |
| 11 | 0% | 100% | |
| 12 | 0% | 100% | |
| 13 | 0% | 100% | |
| 14 | 0% | 100% | |
| 15 | 0% | 100% | |
| 16 | 0% | 100% | |
| 17 | 0% | 100% | |
| 18 | 1.1% | 100% | |
| 19 | 4% | 98.9% | |
| 20 | 42% | 94% | |
| 21 | 31% | 52% | Median |
| 22 | 8% | 21% | |
| 23 | 12% | 13% | |
| 24 | 0.6% | 0.6% | |
| 25 | 0% | 0% |
Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands (S&D)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands (S&D) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 100% | |
| 2 | 0% | 100% | |
| 3 | 0% | 100% | |
| 4 | 0% | 100% | |
| 5 | 0% | 100% | |
| 6 | 0% | 100% | |
| 7 | 0% | 100% | |
| 8 | 0% | 100% | |
| 9 | 0% | 100% | |
| 10 | 0% | 100% | |
| 11 | 0% | 100% | |
| 12 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 13 | 4% | 99.9% | |
| 14 | 48% | 96% | Median |
| 15 | 33% | 48% | |
| 16 | 12% | 15% | |
| 17 | 2% | 2% | |
| 18 | 0.4% | 0.4% | |
| 19 | 0% | 0% |
Bündnis 90/Die Grünen (Greens/EFA)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Bündnis 90/Die Grünen (Greens/EFA) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 100% | |
| 2 | 0% | 100% | |
| 3 | 0% | 100% | |
| 4 | 0% | 100% | |
| 5 | 0% | 100% | |
| 6 | 0% | 100% | |
| 7 | 0% | 100% | |
| 8 | 0.2% | 100% | |
| 9 | 3% | 99.8% | |
| 10 | 35% | 97% | |
| 11 | 50% | 62% | Median |
| 12 | 11% | 12% | |
| 13 | 0.6% | 0.7% | |
| 14 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 15 | 0% | 0% |
Die Linke (GUE/NGL)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Die Linke (GUE/NGL) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 100% | |
| 2 | 0% | 100% | |
| 3 | 0% | 100% | |
| 4 | 0% | 100% | |
| 5 | 0% | 100% | |
| 6 | 0% | 100% | |
| 7 | 3% | 100% | |
| 8 | 5% | 97% | |
| 9 | 21% | 92% | |
| 10 | 65% | 71% | Median |
| 11 | 5% | 6% | |
| 12 | 0.5% | 0.7% | |
| 13 | 0.2% | 0.2% | |
| 14 | 0% | 0% |
Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern (EPP)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern (EPP) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 100% | |
| 2 | 0% | 100% | |
| 3 | 0% | 100% | |
| 4 | 0.7% | 100% | |
| 5 | 24% | 99.3% | |
| 6 | 19% | 75% | |
| 7 | 54% | 56% | Median |
| 8 | 2% | 2% | |
| 9 | 0% | 0% |
Freie Demokratische Partei (RE)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Freie Demokratische Partei (RE) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 100% | |
| 2 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 3 | 19% | 99.9% | |
| 4 | 76% | 81% | Median |
| 5 | 4% | 5% | |
| 6 | 0.6% | 0.7% | |
| 7 | 0% | 0% |
Bündnis Sahra Wagenknecht (NI)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Bündnis Sahra Wagenknecht (NI) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 100% | |
| 2 | 0.3% | 100% | |
| 3 | 66% | 99.7% | Median |
| 4 | 28% | 33% | |
| 5 | 5% | 5% | |
| 6 | 0.2% | 0.2% | |
| 7 | 0% | 0% |
Freie Wähler (RE)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Freie Wähler (RE) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 2% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 24% | 98% | |
| 2 | 73% | 74% | Median |
| 3 | 0.8% | 0.8% | |
| 4 | 0% | 0% |
Partei Mensch Umwelt Tierschutz (GUE/NGL)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Partei Mensch Umwelt Tierschutz (GUE/NGL) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 24% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 75% | 76% | Median |
| 2 | 0.7% | 0.7% | |
| 3 | 0% | 0% |
Volt Europa (Greens/EFA)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Volt Europa (Greens/EFA) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 94% | 94% | Median |
| 2 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 3 | 0% | 0% |
Die PARTEI (NI)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Die PARTEI (NI) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 68% | 100% | Last Result, Median |
| 1 | 32% | 32% | |
| 2 | 0.2% | 0.2% | |
| 3 | 0% | 0% |
Basisdemokratische Partei Deutschland (*)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Basisdemokratische Partei Deutschland (*) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 97% | 100% | Last Result, Median |
| 1 | 3% | 3% | |
| 2 | 0% | 0% |
Coalitions
Confidence Intervals
| Coalition | Last Result | Median | Majority? | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alternative für Deutschland (ESN) | 0 | 22 | 0% | 20–24 | 20–24 | 20–24 | 19–24 |
| Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands (S&D) | 0 | 14 | 0% | 14–16 | 14–16 | 13–16 | 13–17 |
| Freie Demokratische Partei (RE) – Freie Wähler (RE) | 0 | 6 | 0% | 5–6 | 4–6 | 4–6 | 3–7 |
| Bündnis Sahra Wagenknecht (NI) – Die PARTEI (NI) | 0 | 4 | 0% | 3–5 | 3–5 | 3–5 | 3–6 |
Alternative für Deutschland (ESN)
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 100% | |
| 2 | 0% | 100% | |
| 3 | 0% | 100% | |
| 4 | 0% | 100% | |
| 5 | 0% | 100% | |
| 6 | 0% | 100% | |
| 7 | 0% | 100% | |
| 8 | 0% | 100% | |
| 9 | 0% | 100% | |
| 10 | 0% | 100% | |
| 11 | 0% | 100% | |
| 12 | 0% | 100% | |
| 13 | 0% | 100% | |
| 14 | 0% | 100% | |
| 15 | 0% | 100% | |
| 16 | 0% | 100% | |
| 17 | 0% | 100% | |
| 18 | 0.4% | 100% | |
| 19 | 1.4% | 99.6% | |
| 20 | 9% | 98% | |
| 21 | 9% | 89% | |
| 22 | 51% | 80% | Median |
| 23 | 6% | 30% | |
| 24 | 23% | 23% | |
| 25 | 0.4% | 0.4% | |
| 26 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 27 | 0% | 0% |
Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands (S&D)
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 100% | |
| 2 | 0% | 100% | |
| 3 | 0% | 100% | |
| 4 | 0% | 100% | |
| 5 | 0% | 100% | |
| 6 | 0% | 100% | |
| 7 | 0% | 100% | |
| 8 | 0% | 100% | |
| 9 | 0% | 100% | |
| 10 | 0% | 100% | |
| 11 | 0% | 100% | |
| 12 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 13 | 4% | 99.9% | |
| 14 | 48% | 96% | Median |
| 15 | 33% | 48% | |
| 16 | 12% | 15% | |
| 17 | 2% | 2% | |
| 18 | 0.4% | 0.4% | |
| 19 | 0% | 0% |
Freie Demokratische Partei (RE) – Freie Wähler (RE)
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 100% | |
| 2 | 0% | 100% | |
| 3 | 1.4% | 100% | |
| 4 | 7% | 98.6% | |
| 5 | 24% | 92% | |
| 6 | 65% | 67% | Median |
| 7 | 2% | 2% | |
| 8 | 0.3% | 0.3% | |
| 9 | 0% | 0% |
Bündnis Sahra Wagenknecht (NI) – Die PARTEI (NI)
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 100% | |
| 2 | 0.2% | 100% | |
| 3 | 42% | 99.8% | Median |
| 4 | 47% | 58% | |
| 5 | 9% | 11% | |
| 6 | 2% | 2% | |
| 7 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 8 | 0% | 0% |
Technical Information
Opinion Poll
- Polling firm: Allensbach
- Commissioner(s): —
- Fieldwork period: 12 March 2026
Calculations
- Sample size: 1045
- Simulations done: 1,048,576
- Error estimate: 1.77%