Opinion Poll by Forsa for RTL n-tv, 10–16 March 2026

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Alternative für Deutschland (ESN) 0.0% 22.9% 21.7–24.2% 21.4–24.6% 21.1–24.9% 20.5–25.5%
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands (EPP) 0.0% 21.3% 20.1–22.5% 19.8–22.9% 19.5–23.2% 19.0–23.8%
Bündnis 90/Die Grünen (Greens/EFA) 0.0% 14.9% 13.9–16.0% 13.7–16.3% 13.4–16.6% 13.0–17.1%
Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands (S&D) 0.0% 12.0% 11.1–13.0% 10.8–13.3% 10.6–13.5% 10.2–14.0%
Die Linke (GUE/NGL) 0.0% 10.9% 10.1–11.9% 9.8–12.2% 9.6–12.4% 9.2–12.9%
Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern (EPP) 0.0% 5.7% 5.0–6.4% 4.8–6.6% 4.7–6.8% 4.4–7.1%
Freie Wähler (RE) 0.0% 3.1% 2.6–3.6% 2.5–3.8% 2.4–3.9% 2.2–4.2%
Bündnis Sahra Wagenknecht (NI) 0.0% 3.0% 2.6–3.6% 2.4–3.7% 2.3–3.9% 2.1–4.2%
Partei Mensch Umwelt Tierschutz (GUE/NGL) 0.0% 1.9% 1.6–2.4% 1.5–2.5% 1.4–2.6% 1.2–2.9%
Volt Europa (Greens/EFA) 0.0% 1.4% 1.1–1.8% 1.0–1.9% 1.0–2.0% 0.8–2.3%
Die PARTEI (NI) 0.0% 0.9% 0.7–1.3% 0.6–1.4% 0.6–1.5% 0.5–1.7%
Basisdemokratische Partei Deutschland (*) 0.0% 0.4% 0.2–0.6% 0.2–0.7% 0.2–0.7% 0.1–0.9%
Freie Demokratische Partei (RE) 0.0% 0.3% 0.2–0.5% 0.1–0.5% 0.1–0.6% 0.1–0.7%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Alternative für Deutschland (ESN) 0 22 21–23 20–24 20–24 20–25
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands (EPP) 0 21 19–21 19–22 19–22 18–23
Bündnis 90/Die Grünen (Greens/EFA) 0 15 13–15 13–15 13–16 12–16
Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands (S&D) 0 12 10–12 10–13 10–13 10–13
Die Linke (GUE/NGL) 0 10 10–11 9–12 9–12 9–12
Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern (EPP) 0 5 4–6 4–6 4–7 4–7
Freie Wähler (RE) 0 3 2–4 2–4 2–4 2–4
Bündnis Sahra Wagenknecht (NI) 0 3 3–4 2–4 2–4 2–4
Partei Mensch Umwelt Tierschutz (GUE/NGL) 0 2 1–2 1–2 1–2 1–3
Volt Europa (Greens/EFA) 0 1 1–2 1–2 1–2 1–2
Die PARTEI (NI) 0 1 1 1 1–2 1–2
Basisdemokratische Partei Deutschland (*) 0 0 0–1 0–1 0–1 0–1
Freie Demokratische Partei (RE) 0 0 0–1 0–1 0–1 0–1

Alternative für Deutschland (ESN)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Alternative für Deutschland (ESN) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 0% 100%  
4 0% 100%  
5 0% 100%  
6 0% 100%  
7 0% 100%  
8 0% 100%  
9 0% 100%  
10 0% 100%  
11 0% 100%  
12 0% 100%  
13 0% 100%  
14 0% 100%  
15 0% 100%  
16 0% 100%  
17 0% 100%  
18 0% 100%  
19 0.4% 100%  
20 8% 99.6%  
21 36% 91%  
22 16% 55% Median
23 33% 39%  
24 6% 7%  
25 1.0% 1.1%  
26 0.1% 0.1%  
27 0% 0%  

Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands (EPP)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands (EPP) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 0% 100%  
4 0% 100%  
5 0% 100%  
6 0% 100%  
7 0% 100%  
8 0% 100%  
9 0% 100%  
10 0% 100%  
11 0% 100%  
12 0% 100%  
13 0% 100%  
14 0% 100%  
15 0% 100%  
16 0% 100%  
17 0% 100%  
18 2% 100%  
19 18% 98%  
20 27% 80%  
21 44% 54% Median
22 8% 10%  
23 2% 2%  
24 0.2% 0.2%  
25 0% 0%  

Bündnis 90/Die Grünen (Greens/EFA)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Bündnis 90/Die Grünen (Greens/EFA) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 0% 100%  
4 0% 100%  
5 0% 100%  
6 0% 100%  
7 0% 100%  
8 0% 100%  
9 0% 100%  
10 0% 100%  
11 0% 100%  
12 1.0% 100%  
13 11% 98.9%  
14 37% 88%  
15 46% 51% Median
16 5% 5%  
17 0.2% 0.2%  
18 0% 0%  

Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands (S&D)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands (S&D) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 0% 100%  
4 0% 100%  
5 0% 100%  
6 0% 100%  
7 0% 100%  
8 0% 100%  
9 0.3% 100%  
10 10% 99.7%  
11 38% 90%  
12 46% 51% Median
13 5% 6%  
14 0.4% 0.4%  
15 0% 0%  

Die Linke (GUE/NGL)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Die Linke (GUE/NGL) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 0% 100%  
4 0% 100%  
5 0% 100%  
6 0% 100%  
7 0% 100%  
8 0.1% 100%  
9 6% 99.9%  
10 63% 94% Median
11 24% 31%  
12 7% 8%  
13 0.4% 0.4%  
14 0% 0%  

Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern (EPP)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern (EPP) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 0% 100%  
4 12% 100%  
5 39% 88% Median
6 45% 49%  
7 4% 4%  
8 0% 0%  

Freie Wähler (RE)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Freie Wähler (RE) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 10% 100%  
3 76% 90% Median
4 14% 14%  
5 0% 0%  

Bündnis Sahra Wagenknecht (NI)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Bündnis Sahra Wagenknecht (NI) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 10% 100%  
3 80% 90% Median
4 11% 11%  
5 0% 0%  

Partei Mensch Umwelt Tierschutz (GUE/NGL)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Partei Mensch Umwelt Tierschutz (GUE/NGL) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 20% 100%  
2 78% 80% Median
3 2% 2%  
4 0% 0%  

Volt Europa (Greens/EFA)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Volt Europa (Greens/EFA) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 72% 100% Median
2 28% 28%  
3 0% 0%  

Die PARTEI (NI)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Die PARTEI (NI) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0.5% 100% Last Result
1 96% 99.5% Median
2 4% 4%  
3 0% 0%  

Basisdemokratische Partei Deutschland (*)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Basisdemokratische Partei Deutschland (*) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 56% 100% Last Result, Median
1 44% 44%  
2 0% 0%  

Freie Demokratische Partei (RE)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Freie Demokratische Partei (RE) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 87% 100% Last Result, Median
1 13% 13%  
2 0% 0%  

Coalitions

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Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median Majority? 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Alternative für Deutschland (ESN) 0 22 0% 21–23 20–24 20–24 20–25
Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands (S&D) 0 12 0% 10–12 10–13 10–13 10–13
Bündnis Sahra Wagenknecht (NI) – Die PARTEI (NI) 0 4 0% 4–5 3–5 3–5 3–5
Freie Wähler (RE) – Freie Demokratische Partei (RE) 0 3 0% 3–4 2–4 2–4 2–5

Alternative für Deutschland (ESN)

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 0% 100%  
4 0% 100%  
5 0% 100%  
6 0% 100%  
7 0% 100%  
8 0% 100%  
9 0% 100%  
10 0% 100%  
11 0% 100%  
12 0% 100%  
13 0% 100%  
14 0% 100%  
15 0% 100%  
16 0% 100%  
17 0% 100%  
18 0% 100%  
19 0.4% 100%  
20 8% 99.6%  
21 36% 91%  
22 16% 55% Median
23 33% 39%  
24 6% 7%  
25 1.0% 1.1%  
26 0.1% 0.1%  
27 0% 0%  

Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands (S&D)

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 0% 100%  
4 0% 100%  
5 0% 100%  
6 0% 100%  
7 0% 100%  
8 0% 100%  
9 0.3% 100%  
10 10% 99.7%  
11 38% 90%  
12 46% 51% Median
13 5% 6%  
14 0.4% 0.4%  
15 0% 0%  

Bündnis Sahra Wagenknecht (NI) – Die PARTEI (NI)

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0.1% 100%  
3 9% 99.9%  
4 78% 91% Median
5 13% 13%  
6 0% 0%  

Freie Wähler (RE) – Freie Demokratische Partei (RE)

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 9% 100%  
3 67% 91% Median
4 22% 24%  
5 2% 2%  
6 0% 0%  

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

Calculations