Opinion Poll by Forsa, 17–23 March 2026

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Alternative für Deutschland (ESN) 0.0% 25.0% 23.7–26.3% 23.4–26.7% 23.1–27.0% 22.5–27.7%
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands (EPP) 0.0% 20.5% 19.4–21.8% 19.0–22.1% 18.7–22.4% 18.2–23.0%
Bündnis 90/Die Grünen (Greens/EFA) 0.0% 15.0% 14.0–16.1% 13.7–16.4% 13.4–16.7% 13.0–17.2%
Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands (S&D) 0.0% 12.0% 11.1–13.0% 10.8–13.3% 10.6–13.5% 10.2–14.1%
Die Linke (GUE/NGL) 0.0% 10.0% 9.2–11.0% 8.9–11.2% 8.7–11.5% 8.4–11.9%
Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern (EPP) 0.0% 5.5% 4.9–6.2% 4.7–6.4% 4.5–6.6% 4.3–7.0%
Freie Demokratische Partei (RE) 0.0% 4.4% 3.8–5.0% 3.7–5.2% 3.5–5.4% 3.3–5.7%
Bündnis Sahra Wagenknecht (NI) 0.0% 3.0% 2.5–3.6% 2.4–3.7% 2.3–3.9% 2.1–4.2%
Freie Wähler (RE) 0.0% 1.5% 1.2–2.0% 1.1–2.1% 1.1–2.2% 0.9–2.4%
Partei Mensch Umwelt Tierschutz (GUE/NGL) 0.0% 1.0% 0.7–1.3% 0.7–1.4% 0.6–1.5% 0.5–1.7%
Volt Europa (Greens/EFA) 0.0% 0.7% 0.5–1.1% 0.5–1.2% 0.4–1.2% 0.4–1.4%
Die PARTEI (NI) 0.0% 0.5% 0.3–0.8% 0.3–0.8% 0.2–0.9% 0.2–1.1%
Basisdemokratische Partei Deutschland (*) 0.0% 0.2% 0.1–0.4% 0.1–0.4% 0.0–0.5% 0.0–0.6%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Alternative für Deutschland (ESN) 0 23 22–24 22–25 22–25 21–27
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands (EPP) 0 20 18–22 18–22 18–22 18–22
Bündnis 90/Die Grünen (Greens/EFA) 0 14 13–16 13–17 13–17 12–17
Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands (S&D) 0 12 11–13 11–13 10–13 10–13
Die Linke (GUE/NGL) 0 10 9–10 9–11 9–11 8–12
Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern (EPP) 0 5 5–6 5–6 4–6 4–6
Freie Demokratische Partei (RE) 0 4 3–4 3–5 3–5 3–5
Bündnis Sahra Wagenknecht (NI) 0 3 2–4 2–4 2–4 2–4
Freie Wähler (RE) 0 2 1–2 1–2 1–2 1–2
Partei Mensch Umwelt Tierschutz (GUE/NGL) 0 1 1–2 0–2 0–2 0–2
Volt Europa (Greens/EFA) 0 1 1 1 1 0–1
Die PARTEI (NI) 0 0 0–1 0–1 0–1 0–1
Basisdemokratische Partei Deutschland (*) 0 0 0 0 0 0

Alternative für Deutschland (ESN)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Alternative für Deutschland (ESN) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 0% 100%  
4 0% 100%  
5 0% 100%  
6 0% 100%  
7 0% 100%  
8 0% 100%  
9 0% 100%  
10 0% 100%  
11 0% 100%  
12 0% 100%  
13 0% 100%  
14 0% 100%  
15 0% 100%  
16 0% 100%  
17 0% 100%  
18 0% 100%  
19 0% 100%  
20 0.1% 100%  
21 0.6% 99.9%  
22 26% 99.3%  
23 44% 73% Median
24 21% 29%  
25 7% 8%  
26 0.7% 1.3%  
27 0.5% 0.6%  
28 0.1% 0.1%  
29 0% 0%  

Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands (EPP)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands (EPP) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 0% 100%  
4 0% 100%  
5 0% 100%  
6 0% 100%  
7 0% 100%  
8 0% 100%  
9 0% 100%  
10 0% 100%  
11 0% 100%  
12 0% 100%  
13 0% 100%  
14 0% 100%  
15 0% 100%  
16 0% 100%  
17 0.4% 100%  
18 28% 99.6%  
19 8% 72%  
20 28% 64% Median
21 11% 36%  
22 25% 25%  
23 0% 0%  

Bündnis 90/Die Grünen (Greens/EFA)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Bündnis 90/Die Grünen (Greens/EFA) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 0% 100%  
4 0% 100%  
5 0% 100%  
6 0% 100%  
7 0% 100%  
8 0% 100%  
9 0% 100%  
10 0% 100%  
11 0% 100%  
12 1.0% 100%  
13 35% 99.0%  
14 29% 64% Median
15 19% 35%  
16 8% 16%  
17 8% 8%  
18 0% 0%  

Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands (S&D)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands (S&D) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 0% 100%  
4 0% 100%  
5 0% 100%  
6 0% 100%  
7 0% 100%  
8 0% 100%  
9 0.1% 100%  
10 2% 99.9%  
11 39% 97%  
12 36% 58% Median
13 22% 22%  
14 0.4% 0.4%  
15 0% 0%  

Die Linke (GUE/NGL)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Die Linke (GUE/NGL) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 0% 100%  
4 0% 100%  
5 0% 100%  
6 0% 100%  
7 0% 100%  
8 0.9% 100%  
9 45% 99.1%  
10 47% 54% Median
11 7% 7%  
12 0.9% 0.9%  
13 0% 0%  

Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern (EPP)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern (EPP) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 0% 100%  
4 3% 100%  
5 79% 97% Median
6 18% 18%  
7 0.2% 0.2%  
8 0% 0%  

Freie Demokratische Partei (RE)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Freie Demokratische Partei (RE) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 11% 100%  
4 80% 89% Median
5 9% 9%  
6 0.1% 0.1%  
7 0% 0%  

Bündnis Sahra Wagenknecht (NI)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Bündnis Sahra Wagenknecht (NI) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 19% 100%  
3 59% 81% Median
4 22% 22%  
5 0% 0%  

Freie Wähler (RE)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Freie Wähler (RE) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 32% 100%  
2 68% 68% Median
3 0% 0%  

Partei Mensch Umwelt Tierschutz (GUE/NGL)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Partei Mensch Umwelt Tierschutz (GUE/NGL) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 6% 100% Last Result
1 83% 94% Median
2 11% 11%  
3 0% 0%  

Volt Europa (Greens/EFA)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Volt Europa (Greens/EFA) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 2% 100% Last Result
1 98% 98% Median
2 0% 0%  

Die PARTEI (NI)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Die PARTEI (NI) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 54% 100% Last Result, Median
1 46% 46%  
2 0% 0%  

Basisdemokratische Partei Deutschland (*)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Basisdemokratische Partei Deutschland (*) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 99.7% 100% Last Result, Median
1 0.3% 0.3%  
2 0% 0%  

Coalitions

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Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median Majority? 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Alternative für Deutschland (ESN) 0 23 0% 22–24 22–25 22–25 21–27
Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands (S&D) 0 12 0% 11–13 11–13 10–13 10–13
Freie Demokratische Partei (RE) – Freie Wähler (RE) 0 6 0% 4–6 4–7 4–7 4–7
Bündnis Sahra Wagenknecht (NI) – Die PARTEI (NI) 0 4 0% 2–4 2–4 2–4 2–5

Alternative für Deutschland (ESN)

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 0% 100%  
4 0% 100%  
5 0% 100%  
6 0% 100%  
7 0% 100%  
8 0% 100%  
9 0% 100%  
10 0% 100%  
11 0% 100%  
12 0% 100%  
13 0% 100%  
14 0% 100%  
15 0% 100%  
16 0% 100%  
17 0% 100%  
18 0% 100%  
19 0% 100%  
20 0.1% 100%  
21 0.6% 99.9%  
22 26% 99.3%  
23 44% 73% Median
24 21% 29%  
25 7% 8%  
26 0.7% 1.3%  
27 0.5% 0.6%  
28 0.1% 0.1%  
29 0% 0%  

Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands (S&D)

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 0% 100%  
4 0% 100%  
5 0% 100%  
6 0% 100%  
7 0% 100%  
8 0% 100%  
9 0.1% 100%  
10 2% 99.9%  
11 39% 97%  
12 36% 58% Median
13 22% 22%  
14 0.4% 0.4%  
15 0% 0%  

Freie Demokratische Partei (RE) – Freie Wähler (RE)

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 0% 100%  
4 11% 100%  
5 19% 89%  
6 64% 71% Median
7 6% 6%  
8 0% 0%  

Bündnis Sahra Wagenknecht (NI) – Die PARTEI (NI)

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 10% 100%  
3 33% 90% Median
4 56% 57%  
5 2% 2%  
6 0% 0%  

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

Calculations