Opinion Poll by Infratest dimap for SWR, 30–31 March 2026

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Alternative für Deutschland (ESN) 0.0% 25.0% 23.5–26.6% 23.1–27.0% 22.7–27.4% 22.0–28.2%
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands (EPP) 0.0% 20.5% 19.1–22.0% 18.7–22.4% 18.4–22.8% 17.8–23.5%
Bündnis 90/Die Grünen (Greens/EFA) 0.0% 14.0% 12.8–15.3% 12.5–15.7% 12.2–16.0% 11.7–16.6%
Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands (S&D) 0.0% 12.0% 10.9–13.2% 10.6–13.6% 10.3–13.9% 9.9–14.5%
Die Linke (GUE/NGL) 0.0% 10.0% 9.0–11.2% 8.7–11.5% 8.5–11.8% 8.1–12.3%
Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern (EPP) 0.0% 5.5% 4.7–6.4% 4.5–6.6% 4.4–6.8% 4.0–7.3%
Bündnis Sahra Wagenknecht (NI) 0.0% 3.0% 2.4–3.7% 2.3–3.9% 2.2–4.0% 2.0–4.4%
Freie Demokratische Partei (RE) 0.0% 3.0% 2.4–3.7% 2.3–3.9% 2.2–4.0% 2.0–4.4%
Freie Wähler (RE) 0.0% 2.4% 2.0–3.1% 1.8–3.3% 1.7–3.4% 1.5–3.7%
Partei Mensch Umwelt Tierschutz (GUE/NGL) 0.0% 1.5% 1.2–2.1% 1.1–2.2% 1.0–2.3% 0.8–2.6%
Volt Europa (Greens/EFA) 0.0% 1.1% 0.8–1.6% 0.8–1.8% 0.7–1.9% 0.6–2.1%
Die PARTEI (NI) 0.0% 0.8% 0.5–1.2% 0.5–1.3% 0.4–1.4% 0.3–1.6%
Basisdemokratische Partei Deutschland (*) 0.0% 0.2% 0.1–0.5% 0.1–0.6% 0.1–0.7% 0.0–0.8%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Alternative für Deutschland (ESN) 0 24 23–25 22–26 22–26 21–28
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands (EPP) 0 20 18–21 18–22 18–22 17–23
Bündnis 90/Die Grünen (Greens/EFA) 0 13 12–15 11–15 11–16 11–16
Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands (S&D) 0 11 10–12 10–12 9–13 9–14
Die Linke (GUE/NGL) 0 10 9–11 9–11 8–11 8–12
Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern (EPP) 0 5 5–6 4–6 4–6 4–7
Bündnis Sahra Wagenknecht (NI) 0 3 2–4 2–4 2–4 2–4
Freie Demokratische Partei (RE) 0 3 2–4 2–4 2–4 2–4
Freie Wähler (RE) 0 2 2–3 2–3 2–4 2–4
Partei Mensch Umwelt Tierschutz (GUE/NGL) 0 1 1–2 1–2 1–2 1–2
Volt Europa (Greens/EFA) 0 1 1–2 1–2 1–2 1–2
Die PARTEI (NI) 0 1 1 0–1 0–1 0–2
Basisdemokratische Partei Deutschland (*) 0 0 0 0–1 0–1 0–1

Alternative für Deutschland (ESN)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Alternative für Deutschland (ESN) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 0% 100%  
4 0% 100%  
5 0% 100%  
6 0% 100%  
7 0% 100%  
8 0% 100%  
9 0% 100%  
10 0% 100%  
11 0% 100%  
12 0% 100%  
13 0% 100%  
14 0% 100%  
15 0% 100%  
16 0% 100%  
17 0% 100%  
18 0% 100%  
19 0% 100%  
20 0.3% 100%  
21 0.7% 99.7%  
22 8% 99.0%  
23 37% 91%  
24 39% 54% Median
25 8% 16%  
26 7% 8%  
27 0.6% 1.2%  
28 0.6% 0.6%  
29 0% 0%  

Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands (EPP)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands (EPP) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 0% 100%  
4 0% 100%  
5 0% 100%  
6 0% 100%  
7 0% 100%  
8 0% 100%  
9 0% 100%  
10 0% 100%  
11 0% 100%  
12 0% 100%  
13 0% 100%  
14 0% 100%  
15 0% 100%  
16 0.2% 100%  
17 2% 99.8%  
18 9% 98%  
19 35% 90%  
20 29% 54% Median
21 17% 25%  
22 7% 8%  
23 1.2% 1.2%  
24 0% 0%  

Bündnis 90/Die Grünen (Greens/EFA)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Bündnis 90/Die Grünen (Greens/EFA) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 0% 100%  
4 0% 100%  
5 0% 100%  
6 0% 100%  
7 0% 100%  
8 0% 100%  
9 0% 100%  
10 0% 100%  
11 5% 100%  
12 27% 95%  
13 28% 68% Median
14 28% 40%  
15 8% 13%  
16 4% 4%  
17 0% 0%  

Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands (S&D)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands (S&D) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 0% 100%  
4 0% 100%  
5 0% 100%  
6 0% 100%  
7 0% 100%  
8 0% 100%  
9 4% 100%  
10 25% 96%  
11 38% 71% Median
12 29% 34%  
13 4% 5%  
14 0.8% 1.2%  
15 0.5% 0.5%  
16 0% 0%  

Die Linke (GUE/NGL)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Die Linke (GUE/NGL) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 0% 100%  
4 0% 100%  
5 0% 100%  
6 0% 100%  
7 0.2% 100%  
8 2% 99.8%  
9 31% 97%  
10 56% 67% Median
11 10% 11%  
12 0.6% 0.6%  
13 0% 0%  

Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern (EPP)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern (EPP) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 0% 100%  
4 7% 100%  
5 72% 93% Median
6 18% 20%  
7 2% 2%  
8 0% 0%  

Bündnis Sahra Wagenknecht (NI)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Bündnis Sahra Wagenknecht (NI) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 14% 100%  
3 70% 86% Median
4 16% 16%  
5 0.1% 0.1%  
6 0% 0%  

Freie Demokratische Partei (RE)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Freie Demokratische Partei (RE) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 19% 100%  
3 52% 81% Median
4 29% 29%  
5 0.3% 0.3%  
6 0% 0%  

Freie Wähler (RE)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Freie Wähler (RE) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0.4% 100%  
2 61% 99.6% Median
3 35% 39%  
4 4% 4%  
5 0% 0%  

Partei Mensch Umwelt Tierschutz (GUE/NGL)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Partei Mensch Umwelt Tierschutz (GUE/NGL) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 62% 100% Median
2 38% 38%  
3 0.2% 0.2%  
4 0% 0%  

Volt Europa (Greens/EFA)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Volt Europa (Greens/EFA) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0.2% 100% Last Result
1 73% 99.8% Median
2 27% 27%  
3 0% 0%  

Die PARTEI (NI)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Die PARTEI (NI) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 5% 100% Last Result
1 94% 95% Median
2 0.9% 0.9%  
3 0% 0%  

Basisdemokratische Partei Deutschland (*)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Basisdemokratische Partei Deutschland (*) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 93% 100% Last Result, Median
1 7% 7%  
2 0% 0%  

Coalitions

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Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median Majority? 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Alternative für Deutschland (ESN) 0 24 0% 23–25 22–26 22–26 21–28
Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands (S&D) 0 11 0% 10–12 10–12 9–13 9–14
Freie Demokratische Partei (RE) – Freie Wähler (RE) 0 5 0% 4–7 4–7 4–7 4–7
Bündnis Sahra Wagenknecht (NI) – Die PARTEI (NI) 0 4 0% 3–5 3–5 3–5 2–5

Alternative für Deutschland (ESN)

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 0% 100%  
4 0% 100%  
5 0% 100%  
6 0% 100%  
7 0% 100%  
8 0% 100%  
9 0% 100%  
10 0% 100%  
11 0% 100%  
12 0% 100%  
13 0% 100%  
14 0% 100%  
15 0% 100%  
16 0% 100%  
17 0% 100%  
18 0% 100%  
19 0% 100%  
20 0.3% 100%  
21 0.7% 99.7%  
22 8% 99.0%  
23 37% 91%  
24 39% 54% Median
25 8% 16%  
26 7% 8%  
27 0.6% 1.2%  
28 0.6% 0.6%  
29 0% 0%  

Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands (S&D)

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 0% 100%  
4 0% 100%  
5 0% 100%  
6 0% 100%  
7 0% 100%  
8 0% 100%  
9 4% 100%  
10 25% 96%  
11 38% 71% Median
12 29% 34%  
13 4% 5%  
14 0.8% 1.2%  
15 0.5% 0.5%  
16 0% 0%  

Freie Demokratische Partei (RE) – Freie Wähler (RE)

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 0.2% 100%  
4 15% 99.8%  
5 39% 84% Median
6 22% 45%  
7 23% 23%  
8 0.4% 0.4%  
9 0% 0%  

Bündnis Sahra Wagenknecht (NI) – Die PARTEI (NI)

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0.6% 100%  
3 18% 99.4%  
4 66% 82% Median
5 16% 16%  
6 0.1% 0.1%  
7 0% 0%  

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

Calculations